Covariance Matrix Estimation and Mean-Variance Optimization in application to International Diversification

Tutkimus keskittyy kansainväliseen hajauttamiseen suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite on selvittää tehostavatko uudet kovarianssimatriisiestimaattorit minimivarianssiportfolion optimointiprosessia. Tavallisen otoskovarianssimatriisin lisäksi optimoinnissa käytetään kahta kutistusestimaattoria ja joustavaa monimuuttuja-GARCH(1,1)-mallia. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Dow Jonesin toimialaindekseistä ja OMX-H:n portfolioindeksistä. Kansainvälinen hajautusstrategia on toteutettu käyttäen toimialalähestymistapaa ja portfoliota optimoidaan käyttäen kahtatoista komponenttia. Tutkimusaieisto kattaa vuodet 1996-2005 eli 120 kuukausittaista havaintoa. Muodostettujen portfolioiden suorituskykyä mitataan Sharpen indeksillä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisesti hajautettujen investointien ja kotimaisen portfolion riskikorjattujen tuottojen välillä ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Myöskään uusien kovarianssimatriisiestimaattoreiden käytöstä ei synnytilastollisesti merkitsevää lisäarvoa verrattuna otoskovarianssimatrisiin perustuvaan portfolion optimointiin.

Time-Varying Benefits of International Diversification for Finnish Investor: Country-Specific Strategy Concentrating on Emerging Markets

The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the Finnish investors’ country-specific strategy concentrating on emerging markets provides diversification benefits. We also analyze whether the benefits of international diversification has been diminished after periods of high volatility caused by different market crisis. The objective is investigated with three methods: Correlation coefficients, rolling correlations added with OLS trend-lines and Box’s M statistic. All the empirical tests are analyzed and calculated with logarithmic returns of weekly time series data from Friday closing values between January 1995 and December 2007. The number of weekly observations is 678. The data type is total return indices of different countries. Data is collected from DataStream and provided by Datastream Financial. Countries investigated are Finland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The current data is quoted both in U.S. Dollars and local currencies. The empirical results of this thesis show that the correlation coefficients are time-varying across Finland and 12 emerging market countries. Although the correlations have risen from 1995 to 2007, there can be found sub-periods where the correlation has declined from earlier period. The results also indicate that a Finnish investor constructing a portfolio of emerging market countries cannot rely on the correlation coefficients estimated from historical data because of the instability of correlation matrices.

Risk exposures and international diversification: Evidence from iShares

We examine the newly developed international diversification instruments–iShares traded on the American Stock Exchange. Given the fact that iShares can be created and redeemed at will, the daily price of an iShare is expected to be equal to the daily portfolio value of the underlying assets in the home-country market. Therefore, theoretically, iShare pricing should be influenced by the risk from the iShare's home-country market and not the risk from the US market, per se. We evaluate the risk exposure of iShare prices to the US market (non-fundamental effect) as well as the home-country market (the fundamental effect). We find that most iShare returns are significantly influenced by and sensitive to the US market risk. Moreover, the US market appears to be the key permanent driving factor and the home-country market is a pronounced transitory driving force for iShare prices. These findings indicate the presence of limits of international arbitrage for iShares. As a result, the international diversification benefits of iShares become questionable.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Gauging the investment potential of international real estate markets

Investing in real estate markets overseas means venturing into the unknown, where you meet unfamiliar political and economic environments, unstable currencies, strange cultures and languages, and so although the advantages of international diversification might appear attractive, the risks of international investment must not be overlooked. However, capital markets are becoming global markets, and commercial real estate markets are no exception, accordingly despite the difficulties posed by venturing overseas no investor can overlook the potential international investment holds out. Thus, what strategies are appropriate for capitalising on this potential? Three issues must be considered: (1) the potential of the countries real estate market in general; (2) the potential of the individual market sectors; and (3) the investment process itself. Although each step in foreign real estate investment is critical, the initial assessment of opportunities is especially important. Various methods can be used to achieve this but a formal and systematic analysis of aggregate market potential should prove particularly fruitful. The work reported here, therefore, develops and illustrates such a methodology for the over 50 international real estate markets.

Optimal geographic diversification and firm performance:evidence from the U.K.

This paper examines the relationship between multinationality and firm performance. The analysis is based on a sample of over 400 UK multinationals, and encompasses both service sector and manufacturing sector multinationals. This paper confirms the non-linear relationship between performance and multinationality that is reported elsewhere in the literature, but offers further analysis of this relationship. Specifically, by correcting for endogeneity in the investment decision, and for shocks in productivity across countries, the paper demonstrates that the returns to multinationality are greater than those that have been reported elsewhere, and persist to higher degrees of international diversification.

Regional diversification and performance: Conceptualization and competing strategic objectives

This dissertation comprised of three essays provides justification for the need to pursue research on multinationality and performance with a more fine-grained approach. Essay one is a conceptual response to an article written by Jean-Francois Hennart in 2011 which questions the need and approach toward future research in this domain. I argue that internalization theory does not render multinationality and performance research meaningless and identify key areas where methodological enhancements can be made to strengthen our research findings with regard to Hennart's call for more content validity. Essay two responds to the need for more-fine grained research on the consequences of multinationality by introducing non-traditional measures of performance such as social and environmental performance and adopting a more theoretically relevant construct of regionalization to capture international diversification levels of the firm. Using data from the world's largest 600 firms (based on sales) derived from Bloomberg and the Directory of Corporate Affiliates; I employ general estimating equation analysis to account for the auto-correlated nature of the panel data alongside multivariate regression techniques. Results indicate that regionalization has a positive relationship with economic performance while it has a negative relationship with environmental and social performance outcomes, often referred to as the "Triple Bottom-Line" performance. Essay three builds upon the work in the previous essays by linking the aforementioned performance variables and sample to corporate reputation which has been shown to be a beneficial strategic asset. Using Structural Equation Modeling I explore economic, environmental and social signals as mediators on relationship between regionalization and firm reputation. Results indicate that these variables partially mediate a positive relationship between regionalization and firm reputation. While regionalization positively affects the reputation building signal of economic performance, it aids in reputation building by reducing environmental and social disclosure effects which interestingly impact reputation negatively. In conclusion, the dissertation submits opportunities for future research and contributes to research by demonstrating that regionalization affects performance, but the effect varies in accordance with the performance criterion and context. In some cases, regional diversification may produce competing or conflicting outcomes among the potential strategic objectives of the firm.

Regional Diversification and Performance: Conceptualization and Competing Strategic Objectives

This dissertation comprised of three essays provides justification for the need to pursue research on multinationality and performance with a more fine-grained approach. Essay one is a conceptual response to an article written by Jean-Francois Hennart in 2011 which questions the need and approach toward future research in this domain. I argue that internalization theory does not render multinationality and performance research meaningless and identify key areas where methodological enhancements can be made to strengthen our research findings with regard to Hennart’s call for more content validity. Essay two responds to the need for more-fine grained research on the consequences of multinationality by introducing non-traditional measures of performance such as social and environmental performance and adopting a more theoretically relevant construct of regionalization to capture international diversification levels of the firm. Using data from the world’s largest 600 firms (based on sales) derived from Bloomberg and the Directory of Corporate Affiliates; I employ general estimating equation analysis to account for the auto-correlated nature of the panel data alongside multivariate regression techniques. Results indicate that regionalization has a positive relationship with economic performance while it has a negative relationship with environmental and social performance outcomes, often referred to as the “Triple Bottom-Line” performance. Essay three builds upon the work in the previous essays by linking the aforementioned performance variables and sample to corporate reputation which has been shown to be a beneficial strategic asset. Using Structural Equation Modeling I explore economic, environmental and social signals as mediators on relationship between regionalization and firm reputation. Results indicate that these variables partially mediate a positive relationship between regionalization and firm reputation. While regionalization positively affects the reputation building signal of economic performance, it aids in reputation building by reducing environmental and social disclosure effects which interestingly impact reputation negatively. In conclusion, the dissertation submits opportunities for future research and contributes to research by demonstrating that regionalization affects performance, but the effect varies in accordance with the performance criterion and context. In some cases, regional diversification may produce competing or conflicting outcomes among the potential strategic objectives of the firm.

The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between diversification in equity portfolios and different facets of education. We find that traditionally used measures of education play an important role in reducing equity home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies tend to benefit more from an improvement in the level of education compared to their more developed counterparts. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

Education and the local equity bias around the world

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between different facets of education and diversification in international portfolios. We find that university education, mathematical numeracy, in addition to financial skill, play an important role in reducing home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies with more university graduates, or with higher level of mathematical numeracy, have lower level of local equity bias compared to more developed countries. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

Portfolion allokointi Euroopan markkinoilla: toimiala- vai maakohtainen strategia?

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, kumpi on suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta tehokkaampi tapa allokoida portfolio Euroopan alueelle, maa- vai toimialalähestymistapa. Tätä tutkitaan käyttämällä aineistoa vuosilta 1999-2003. Tilanne ennen vuotta 1999 on aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella melko hyvin selvillä, joten tutkimus antaa tuoretta tietoa siitä, miten poikkeuksellinen tuottohistoria vaikuttaa portfolion allokointiin. Aihetta tutkitaan käyttämällä 16 Euroopan alueen maaindeksiä ja kymmentä toimialaindeksiä. Indeksit ovat logaritmisia nettotuottoindeksejä, ja niistä on laskettu korrelaatiot, keskihajonnat sekä tehokkaat rintamat. Indekseistä on myös muodostettu 11 esimerkkiportfoliota, joiden avulla on analysoitu erilaisten portfolioiden suorituskykyä. Tuloksien mukaan maakohtaisella sijoitusstrategialla on etenkin laskevilla markkinoilla mahdollisuus saavuttaa parempi riski/tuotto-suhde, vaikka sijoitettaisiin pelkästään toimialoihin, joita yleisen käsityksen mukaan kannattaa suosia laskevilla markkinoilla. Toimialasijoittaminen taas tarjoaa hieman parempia mahdollisuuksia portfolion hajautukseen. Hajautuksen hyödyt suomalaiselle sijoittajalle tulivat tutkimuksessa selvästi esiin. Toimialasijoittamisesta on suomalaiselle sijoittajalle erityistä hyötyä hajautuksen kannalta, koska näin voidaan valita toimialoja, joiden paino Suomen markkinaindeksissä on vähäinen.

Stock and Bond Market Integration: Evidence from Russian Financial Markets

Minimizing the risks of an investment portfolio but not in the favour of expected returns is one of the key interests of an investor. Typically, portfolio diversification is achieved using two main strategies: investing in different classes of assets thought to have little or negative correlations or investing in similar classes of assets in multiple markets through international diversification. This study investigates integration of the Russian financial markets in the time period of January 1, 2003 to December 28, 2007 using daily data. The aim is to test the intra-country and cross-country integration of the Russian stock and bond markets between seven countries. Our test methodology for the short-run dynamics testing is the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and for the long-run cointegration testing we use the Johansen cointegration test which is an extension to VAR. The empirical results of this study show that the Russian stock and bond markets are not integrated in the long-run either at intra-country or cross-country level which means that the markets are relatively segmented. The short-run dynamics are also relatively low. This implies a presence of potential gains from diversification.