The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

Who Uses FTAs?

It is noted that utilization of AFTA is low by international standards. In order to clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper investigates what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use FTAs in their exporting, by employing unique affiliate-level data. Our findings are as follow. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified its procurements’ origins are, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates exporting actively to developing countries are more likely to use FTAs than those exporting to developed countries. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates’ locations and sectors. These results afford a clue to the reasons for the low FTA utilization in East Asia.

Cost Reduction Effects of "pseudo FTAs" in Asia -Application of a price model based on a multilateral I/O table-

This paper examines the repercussion effects on the production cost of industries in Asian countries when some countries eliminate tariffs and import commodity taxes on all imports. This kind of analysis is related in some sense to that measuring the effects of FTAs on economies, and thus may be considered as an analysis of “pseudo FTAs.” Examining a number of combinations of “pseudo FTAs” between China, Japan, and ASEAN, it is found that the case of China plus Japan plus ASEAN is the most effective “pseudo FTA” of the combinations in terms of production cost reduction. The method is a form of price model based on the Asian International Input-Output Table. Almost no studies on price models related to multilateral I/O tables have been implemented thus far.

Does the use of multiple FTAs force firms to raise local input share? : evidence of the spaghetti bowl phenomenon

This paper empirically investigates the firm-level relationship between the local input share and the number of used FTAs by employing the data on FTA utilization in Japanese affiliates in ASEAN. As a result, we do not find a robust linear relationship. However, affiliates using a large number of FTAs (seven or eight) have an extremely higher share of local inputs. This result might be interpreted as the first evidence of the “spaghetti bowl phenomenon”.

Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.

The impacts of free trade agreements on use of antidumping

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Critical success factors for improving societal effectiveness of transport sector's R&D

This study investigates societal effectiveness of transport sector’s Research & Development (R&D) operations. In this study effectiveness refers to organization’s capability to produce the intended and desired impacts through its operations. The aim of this study is to identify the motives for evaluating societal effectiveness and recognize the critical success factors for improving effectiveness. The theoretical framework focuses first in the policy context of effectiveness evaluation in public sector and secondly the framework introduces the concept and process of effectiveness evaluation. The empirical part is carried out as a case study, which investigates societal effectiveness of Finnish Transport Agency’s (FTA’s) R&D. The aim is to recognize FTA’s critical success factors for improving R&D operations’ societal effectiveness. Based on these factors, the organization is able to define indicators for measuring effectiveness in the future operations. In this study societal effectiveness is investigated from R&D purchasers’ and R&D end- users’ points of views according to Purchaser-Provider-model. The results indicate that societal effectiveness evaluation is important part of R&D operations, but the implementation of the evaluation as part of daily operations is challenging. Because of limited resources, the organization is forced to strong priorization and therefore R&D tasks are secondary after the operational tasks. Based on the results the critical success factors can be recognized as resources and priorization, clear strategy and objectives, internal communications, cooperation between public and private sector and R&D implementation and dissemination.

Incidencia de Estados Unidos en la formulación de políticas sobre patentes en Latinoamérica en el marco de los tratados de libre comercio firmados y ratificados con países de la región

Los derechos de propiedad intelectual han adquirido una creciente importancia en la estructura de las Relaciones Internaiconales. Este texto analiza los contenidos de los TLC suscritos entre Estados Unidos y paises latinoamericanos, especificamente en su contenido en materia de patentes, con el fin de determinar su incidencia en los equilibrios politicos.

Puerto de Buenaventura

En la actualidad, las economías mundiales y el país se encuentran en un proceso de desarrollo donde se contemplan grandes cambios y oportunidades de negocios en el ámbito del comercio internacional, especialmente, en el espacio delimitado como la Cuenca del Pacifico. En este punto, el Puerto de Buenaventura juega un papel fundamental, frente a esta integración económica dada su ubicación como punto multifuncional para el adecuado desempeño de toda la logística internacional. Por esta razón, es necesario que Colombia cuente con una infraestructura portuaria que responda de manera eficiente a los diferentes retos que trae consigo la radicación de nuevos Tratados de Libre Comercio. Para efectos de esta investigación, se dio a conocer la situación actual del puerto, analizando cada uno de sus puntos críticos en relación a su infraestructura y flujo de operaciones portuarias. Para esto, se llevaron a cabo varias comparaciones con los puertos correspondientes a los países más influyentes del Pacifico, incluso, se tuvieron en cuenta puertos nacionales como el de Cartagena dada su influencia y constante desarrollo. Todo lo anterior con el fin de diagnosticar a través del análisis de diferentes variables, aspectos tanto positivos como negativos que ayudarán a tener un panorama más detallado en términos de infraestructura portuaria; permitiendo el óptimo desarrollo de nuevas estrategias centralizadas en mejorar los niveles de competitividad del país.

La importación como oportunidad para aumentar la competitividad de las pymes manufactureras en Colombia, caso telecomunicaciones y sonido

En la actualidad el proceso de globalización ha incrementado el nivel de intercambio comercial a internacional. Sin embargo, en países como Colombia, en donde el mundo empresarial está caracterizado por la prevalencia de pequeñas y medianas empresas o PYMES, éstas en dicha apertura y tendencias de mercados internacionales, pueden encontrar una oportunidad o por el contrario una amenaza. Así pues, dado el nivel de competencia que se traslada fuera del ámbito nacional, la competitividad y productividad se ha convertido en una variable fundamental, en donde el rendimiento es resultado de procesos óptimos de innovación, calidad y eficiencia, incrementando la capacidad de respuesta ante el entorno cambiante, a lo que normalmente se conoce como competitividad. Ahora bien, dado a que existe la tendencia a relacionar la buena competitividad con el nivel de exportaciones, el principal objetivo de esta investigación, es el de resolver a la cuestión de cómo por medio de las importaciones se puede también aumentar la competitividad empresarial. Para esto, se desarrolló un modelo importador en donde se establecieron diferentes variables, que ayudaron a determinar el escenario adecuado: la región, el sector, subsector, los productos, los mercados potenciales teniendo en cuenta los TLC’s suscritos, para posteriormente proceder a aplicar a una base de 800 PYMES. De esta manera, se logró determinar que la importación puede aportar grandes beneficios a la hora de establecer modelos de negocios rentables para los empresarios: esto representado en la disminución de costos materias primas o insumos dada la amplia oferta, consiguiendo productos que no se oferten en la economía nacional y que contribuya a mantener o mejorar la calidad.

Análisis de los efectos económicos y socio-políticos en Chile de la tradición exportadora minera y del TLC entre China y Chile, en especial para el período 2006-2012

Esta monografía pretende evaluar los efectos de la tradición exportadora minera y el TLC entre China y Chile desde las perspectivas de violencia estructural y desarrollo como libertad de Amartya Sen y Johan Galtung, respectivamente. A través del análisis de algunos procesos históricos que han configurado las actuales dinámicas mineras y comerciales en Chile, y de las libertades reales que poseían los chilenos antes y después de la entrada en vigor del acuerdo, se logra comprender la manera en la que los fenómenos estudiados logran constreñir o impulsar el desarrollo de las capacidades de los chilenos para llevar a cabo las vidas que desean.

Análisis de la producción y comercialización del banano, su aceptación y evolución frente al Tratado de Libre Comercio con la Unión Europea

Colombia ha sido tradicionalmente un país exportador de banano, incluso éste producto es uno de los que conforman la canasta de los tradicionales. Ahora bien, con el Tratado de Libre Comercio con la Unión Europea es factible que su posición mejore en este mercado de más de 500 millones de habitantes, sin embargo, y bajo el supuesto que a futuro Ecuador ( el primer productor mundial) y Costa Rica suscriban TLC´S con la Unión Europea . El país ha emprendido una etapa de transformación que tiene como fin convertirla en una economía atractiva, es por esto que el gobierno ha decidido firmar acuerdos que permitan abrir nuevas oportunidades gracias al acceso preferencial a mercados como el de la Unión Europea otorgando así un beneficio para el sector agropecuario y por consiguiente para los productores bananeros. El Tratado de Libre comercio es una herramienta que permite desarrollar la economía del país que acompañado de la globalización que se vive actualmente a nivel mundial permite llevar a cabo procesos de integración entre países con el fin de impulsar el comercio internacional porque este es el motor del crecimiento para alcanzar una economía sostenible.