Active versus passive management : the case of BOVESPA

Mestrado em Finanças

Análise do desempenho de longo prazo dos IPOs de empresas com participação prévia de fundos de private equity e venture capital de 2004 a 2011 na BM&F Bovespa

O mercado brasileiro de ofertas públicas iniciais a partir de 2004 passou por um reaquecimento. O período até 2008, segundo a Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial – ABDI (2009) foi marcado pela aceleração das saídas de investidores em Private Equity e Venture Capital (PE/VC) via mercado de ações. Esses fundos são bem ativos nas empresas investidas e buscam ter acesso e influenciar as decisões dos administradores, exigem um volume grande de informações gerenciais, se preocupam com a profissionalização da gestão da empresa além de impor práticas de governança e transparência. Por serem investidores ativos espera-se que as empresas que tiveram participação desses veículos de investimento no momento anterior a abertura do capital apresentem retornos melhores do que outras sem essa participação. Assim objetivo desse estudo é verificar se há evidencias de que a presença de fundos de private equitiy ou venture capital no capital social da empresa antes de seu lançamento afeta o desempenho de longo prazo de suas ações, no presente estudo estabelecido como até 3 anos. Foi utilizada a metodologia de estudo de eventos para a investigação dos retornos de uma amostra de 126 IPOs ocorridos entre 2004 e 2011 no Brasil. A metodologia empregada tem como base o trabalho de Ritter (1991) com as recomendações de Khotari e Warner (2006), Ahern (2009) e Mackinlay (1997). Para o cálculo dos retronos anormais acumulados, ou cummulative abnormal returns – CAR utilizou-se o retorno ajustado pelo mercado, ou Market Adjusted Returns Equaly Wheighted, MAREW, utilizando como benchmark o Ibovespa e tendo como base um portifólio com pesos iguais. Verificou-se que há um retorno anormal médio de 3,47% no dia do lançamento que com o passar do tempo o retorno se torna negativo, sendo -15,27% no final do primeiro ano, -37,32% no final do segundo ano e chegando a -36,20% no final do terceiro ano. Para verificar o que influencia o CAR no longo prazo, foram relizadas regressões para os períodos de 1, 6, 12, 24 e 36 com as variáveis de controle Tamanho da Empresa, Tamanho da Oferta, Proporção da Oferta Primária, Idade, Quantidade de Investidores e Underprice para medir qual a influência de um fundo de Private Equity no retorno excedente acumulado das ações. A presença de um fundo de Private Equity ou Venture Capital se mostrou significativa apenas depois de seis meses do lançamento.

Non-testability of equal weights spatial dependence

We show that any invariant test for spatial autocorrelation in a spatial error or spatial lag model with equal weights matrix has power equal to size. This result holds under the assumption of an elliptical distribution. Under Gaussianity, we also show that any test whose power is larger than its size for at least one point in the parameter space must be biased.

Implicit equal-weights particle filter

Filter degeneracy is the main obstacle for the implementation of particle filter in non-linear high-dimensional models. A new scheme, the implicit equal-weights particle filter (IEWPF), is introduced. In this scheme samples are drawn implicitly from proposal densities with a different covariance for each particle, such that all particle weights are equal by construction. We test and explore the properties of the new scheme using a 1,000-dimensional simple linear model, and the 1,000-dimensional non-linear Lorenz96 model, and compare the performance of the scheme to a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the new scheme can easily be implemented in high-dimensional systems and is never degenerate, with good convergence properties in both systems.

Solving MDPs using two-timescale simulated annealing with multiplicative weights

We develop extensions of the Simulated Annealing with Multiplicative Weights (SAMW) algorithm that proposed a method of solution of Finite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes (FH-MDPs). The extensions developed are in three directions: a) Use of the dynamic programming principle in the policy update step of SAMW b) A two-timescale actor-critic algorithm that uses simulated transitions alone, and c) Extending the algorithm to the infinite-horizon discounted-reward scenario. In particular, a) reduces the storage required from exponential to linear in the number of actions per stage-state pair. On the faster timescale, a 'critic' recursion performs policy evaluation while on the slower timescale an 'actor' recursion performs policy improvement using SAMW. We give a proof outlining convergence w.p. 1 and show experimental results on two settings: semiconductor fabrication and flow control in communication networks.

An examination of the effect on debt/equity ratios with the adoption of IAS 19 : employee benefits

A number of countries have adopted the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as a means of harmonising financial statements. .This paper examines the effect of the adoption of IFRS, relating to post employment benefits and its effects on debt/equity ratios. The adoption of the IFRS resulted in most companies reporting a substantial increase in liabilities, a
decrease in shareholders’ equity and a corresponding increase
in debt/equity ratios.

On some properties of weighted averaging with variable weights

Density-based means have been recently proposed as a method for dealing with outliers in the stream processing of data. Derived from a weighted arithmetic mean with variable weights that depend on the location of all data samples, these functions are not monotonic and hence cannot be classified as aggregation functions. In this article we establish the weak monotonicity of this class of averaging functions and use this to establish robust generalisations of these means. Specifically, we find that as proposed, the density based means are only robust to isolated outliers. However, by using penalty based formalisms of averaging functions and applying more sophisticated and robust density estimators, we are able to define a broader family of density based means that are more effective at filtering both isolated and clustered outliers. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Labeling the nodes in the intrinsic order graph with their weights

[EN] This paper deals with the study of some new properties of the intrinsic order graph. The intrinsic order graph is the natural graphical representation of a complex stochastic Boolean system (CSBS). A CSBS is a system depending on an arbitrarily large number n of mutually independent random Boolean variables. The intrinsic order graph displays its 2n vertices (associated to the CSBS) from top to bottom, in decreasing order of their occurrence probabilities. New relations between the intrinsic ordering and the Hamming weight (i.e., the number of 1-bits in a binary n-tuple) are derived. Further, the distribution of the weights of the 2n nodes in the intrinsic order graph is analyzed…

On the Efficiency of the Benchmarks Used in the Asset Management

In this work we studied the efficiency of the benchmarks used in the asset management industry. In chapter 2 we analyzed the efficiency of the benchmark used for the government bond markets. We found that for the Emerging Market Bonds an equally weighted index for the country weights is probably the more suited because guarantees maximum diversification of country risk but for the Eurozone government bond market we found a GDP weighted index is better because the most important matter is to avoid a higher weight for highly indebted countries. In chapter 3 we analyzed the efficiency of a Derivatives Index to invest in the European corporate bond market instead of a Cash Index. We can state that the two indexes are similar in terms of returns, but that the Derivatives Index is less risky because it has a lower volatility, has values of skewness and kurtosis closer to those of a normal distribution and is a more liquid instrument, as the autocorrelation is not significant. In chapter 4 it is analyzed the impact of fallen angels on the corporate bond portfolios. Our analysis investigated the impact of the month-end rebalancing of the ML Emu Non Financial Corporate Index for the exit of downgraded bond (the event). We can conclude a flexible approach to the month-end rebalancing is better in order to avoid a loss of valued due to the benchmark construction rules. In chapter 5 we did a comparison between the equally weighted and capitalization weighted method for the European equity market. The benefit which results from reweighting the portfolio into equal weights can be attributed to the fact that EW portfolios implicitly follow a contrarian investment strategy, because they mechanically rebalance away from stocks that increase in price.

Harrison's Analytical digest of all the reported cases determined in the House of lords, the several courts of common law, in banc and nisi prius, and the Court of bankruptcy: from Michaelmas term, 1856, to Easter term 1843; including also the crown cases reserved, and a full selection of equity decisions: with the manuscript cases cited in the best modern treaties not elsewhere reported: to which is added a Supplement continuing work to the year 1846.

Mode of access: Internet.

A letter to the President of the U. States of America : proposing a method whereby the merits of the conflicting claims of the United States and Great Britain on the disputed frontier may be correctly examined and determined, by scientific principles, combined with indisputable data, grounded in equity : together with an examination of the treaty of 1783 : from which is derived a demonstration of the falsehood of the British claim /

Mode of access: Internet.