Making sense of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing in duopoly markets

The prediction of asymmetric equilibria with Stackelberg outcomes is clearly the most frequent result in the endogenous timing literature. Several experiments have tried to validate this prediction empirically, but failed to find support for it. By contrast, the experiments find that simultaneous-move outcomes are modal and that behavior in endogenous timing games is quite heterogeneous. This paper generalizes Saloner’s (1987) and Hamilton and Slutsky’s (1990) endogenous timing games by assuming that players are averse to inequality in payoffs. We explore the theoretical implications of inequity aversion and compare them to the empirical evidence. We find that this explanation is able to organize most of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing games. However, inequity aversion is not able to explain delay in Hamilton and Slutsky’s endogenous timing games.

Endogenous timing of moves in an asymmetric price-setting duopoly

This paper adds to the growing literature on endogenous timing of decisions in duopolies. We show for a price-setting duopoly game with sufficiently asymmetric and strictly convex cost functions that the less efficient firm moves first while the more efficient moves second with a higher price than the less efficient firm.

Endogenous Timing of Moves in Bertrand-Edgeworth Triopolies

We determine the endogenous order of moves in which the firms set their prices in the framework of a capacity-constrained Bertrand-Edgeworth triopoly. A three-period timing game that determines the period in which the firms announce their prices precedes the price-setting stage. We show for the non-trivial case (in which the Bertrand-Edgeworth triopoly has only an equilibrium in non-degenerated mixed-strategies) that the firm with the largest capacity sets its price first, while the two other firms set their prices later. Our result extends a finding by Deneckere and Kovenock (1992) from duopolies to triopolies. This extension was made possible by Hirata's (2009) recent advancements on the mixed-strategy equilibria of Bertrand-Edgeworth games.

Endogenous price leadership

We consider a linear price setting duopoly game with di®erentiatedproducts and determine endogenously which of the players will lead andwhich will follow. While the follower role is most attractive for each firm, we show that waiting is more risky for the low cost firm so that,consequently, risk dominance considerations, as in Harsanyi and Selten(1988), allow the conclusion that only the high cost firm will choose towait. Hence, the low cost firm will emerge as the endogenous price leader.

Endogenous price leadership

We consider a linear price setting duopoly game with differentiated products and determine endogenously which of the players will lead and which will follow. While the follower role is most attractive for each firm, we show that waiting is more risky for the low cost firm so that, consequently, risk dominance considerations, as in Harsanyi and Selten (1988), allow the conclusion that only the highcost firm will choose to wait. Hence, the low cost firm will emerge as the endogenous price leader.

Disruption of endogenous tidal rhythms of larval release linked to food supply and heat stress in an intertidal barnacle

The timing of larval release may greatly affect the survivorship and distribution of pelagic stages and reveal important aspects of life history tactics in marine invertebrates. Endogenous rhythms of breeding individuals and populations are valuable indicators of selected strategies because they are free of the neutral effect of stochastic environmental variation. The high-shore intertidal barnacle Chthamalus bisinuatus exhibits endogenous tidal and tidal amplitude rhythms in a way that larval release would more likely occur during fortnightly neap periods at high tide. Such timing would minimize larval loss due to stranding and promote larval retention close to shore. This fully explains temporal patterns in populations facing the open sea and inhabiting eutrophic areas. However, rhythmic activity breaks down to an irregular pattern in a population within the São Sebastião Channel subjected to large variation of food supply around a mesotrophic average. Peaks of chl a concentration precede release events by 6 d, suggesting resource limitation for egg production within the channel. Also, extreme daily temperatures imposing mortality risk correlate to release rate just 1 d ahead, suggesting a terminal reproductive strategy. Oceanographic conditions apparently dictate whether barnacles follow a rhythmic trend of larval release supported by endogenous timing or, alternatively, respond to the stochastic variation of key environmental factors, resulting in an erratic temporal pattern.

On Public Inefficiencies in a Mixed Duopoly

The aim of this paper is to investigate the welfare effect of a change in the public firms objective function in oligopoly when the government takes into account the distortionary effect of rising funds by taxation (shadow cost of public funds). We analyze the impact of a shift from welfare- to profit-maximizing behaviour of the public firm on the timing of competition by endogenizing the determination of simultaneous (Nash-Cournot) versus sequential (Stackelberg) games using the game with observable delay proposed by Hamilton and Slutsky (1990). Differently from previous work that assumed the timing of competition, we show that, absent efficiency gains, instructing the public firm to play as a private one never increases welfare. Moreover, even when large efficiency gains result from the shift in public firm's objective, an inefficient public firm that maximizes welfare may be preferred.

A cognitive hierarchy model of behavior in the action commitment game

We apply the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. (Q J Econ 119(3):861-898, 2004)-where players have different levels of reasoning-to Huck et al. (Games Econ Behav 38:240-264, 2002) discrete version of Hamilton and Slutsky (Games Econ Behav 2:29-46, 1990) action commitment game-a duopoly with endogenous timing of entry. We show that, for an empirically reasonable average number of thinking steps, the model rules out Stackelberg equilibria, generates Cournot outcomes including delay, and outcomes where the first mover commits to a quantity higher than Cournot but lower than Stackelberg leader. We show that a cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses can explain the most important features of the experimental data on the action commitment game in (2002). In order to gauge the success of the model in fitting the data, we compare it to a noisy Nash model. We find that the cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses fits the data better than the noisy Nash model.

Joint determinants of education enrolment and first birth timing in France and West Germany

We examined the reciprocal influence between educational decisions and the timing of first births, using the Family and Fertility Surveys of France and West Germany. Since these two processes are potentially endogenous, we modelled them jointly, using event history models. We hypothesise that the reciprocal impact of educational and fertility careers, as well as the impact of the common determinants of both processes, are gender specific and context specific.The results show a significant endogeneity for women and men in both countries. This endogeneity is stronger for women than for men, while no substantial differences are found between the two countries. Removing this shared and unobserved heterogeneity, the results show a stronger reciprocal impact between the processes for women than for men. A similar impact of being enrolled in education on first birth in both countries is found, while the effect of the birth (and especially of the pregnancy) of the first child on terminating one’s education appeared to be more marked in West Gernany than in France.

Transition to parenthood: The role of social interaction and endogenous networks

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdepen- dencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics regarding age, intended education and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members then may influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social inter- actions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria over the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

A simple model for circadian timing by mammals

Circadian timing is structured in such a way as to receive information from the external and internal environments, and its function is the timing organization of the physiological and behavioral processes in a circadian pattern. In mammals, the circadian timing system consists of a group of structures, which includes the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), the intergeniculate leaflet and the pineal gland. Neuron groups working as a biological pacemaker are found in the SCN, forming a biological master clock. We present here a simple model for the circadian timing system of mammals, which is able to reproduce two fundamental characteristics of biological rhythms: the endogenous generation of pulses and synchronization with the light-dark cycle. In this model, the biological pacemaker of the SCN was modeled as a set of 1000 homogeneously distributed coupled oscillators with long-range coupling forming a spherical lattice. The characteristics of the oscillator set were defined taking into account the Kuramoto's oscillator dynamics, but we used a new method for estimating the equilibrium order parameter. Simultaneous activities of the excitatory and inhibitory synapses on the elements of the circadian timing circuit at each instant were modeled by specific equations for synaptic events. All simulation programs were written in Fortran 77, compiled and run on PC DOS computers. Our model exhibited responses in agreement with physiological patterns. The values of output frequency of the oscillator system (maximal value of 3.9 Hz) were of the order of magnitude of the firing frequencies recorded in suprachiasmatic neurons of rodents in vivo and in vitro (from 1.8 to 5.4 Hz).

Environmental and Endogenous Factors Influencing Emigration in Juvenile Anadromous Alewives

We analyzed juvenile anadromous alewife migration at Bride Lake, a coastal lake in Connecticut, during summer 2006 and found that migration on 24-hour and seasonal timescales was influenced by conditions of the environment and characteristics of the individual. To identify environmental cues of juvenile migration, we continuously video recorded fish at the lake outflow and employed information-theoretic model selection to identify the best predictors of daily migration rate. More than 80% of the approximately 320,000 juveniles that migrated from mid-June to mid-August departed in three pulses lasting one or two days. Pulses of migration were associated with precipitation events, transient decreases in water temperature and transient increases in stream discharge. Diel timing of migration shifted over the summer. Early in the season most migration occurred around dawn; late in the season migration occurred at night. To identify individual characteristics associated with migratory behavior, we compared migrating juveniles that we collected as they were exiting Bride Lake to non-migrating juveniles that we collected from the center of the lake. Migrants were a non-random subset of the population; they were on average 1 – 12 mm larger, 2 – 14 d older, had grown more rapidly (11% greater length-at-age), and were in better condition (14% greater mass-at-length) than non-migrant fish. We infer that the amount of accumulated energy has a positive effect on the net benefit of migration at any time in the migratory season.

Simulated agricultural subsistence, timing of transition, and percentage of immigrant farmers

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

Does timing of decisions in a mixed duopoly matter?

We determine the endogenous order of moves in a mixed pricesetting duopoly. In contrast to the existing literature on mixed oligopolies we establish the payo equivalence of the games with an exogenously given order of moves if the most plausible equilibrium is realized in the market. Hence, in this case it does not matter whether one becomes a leader or a follower. We also establish that replacing a private firm by a public firm in the standard Bertrand-Edgeworth game with capacity constraints increases social welfare and that a pure-strategy equilibrium always exists.

Islet Neogenesis-associated Protein (ingap): The Role Of Its Endogenous Production As A Positive Modulator Of Insulin Secretion.

Islet neogenesis-associated protein (INGAP) is a peptide found in pancreatic exocrine-, duct- and islet- non-β-cells from normal hamsters. Its increase induced by either its exogenous administration or by the overexpression of its gene enhances β-cell secretory function and increases β-cell mass by a combination of stimulation of cell replication and islet neogenesis and reduction of β-cell apoptosis. We studied the potential modulatory role of endogenous INGAP in insulin secretion using two different experimental approaches. Hamster islets transfected with INGAP-small interfering RNA (INGAP-siRNA) were used to study glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS). In parallel, freshly isolated islets were incubated with high glucose and the same concentration of either a specific anti-INGAP rabbit serum or normal rabbit serum. INGAP-siRNA transfected islets reduced their INGAP mRNA and protein content by 35.1% and 47.2%, respectively whereas GSIS decreased by 25.8%. GSIS by transfected islets attained levels comparable to those recorded in control islets when INGAP pentadecapeptide (INGAP-PP) was added to the culture medium. INGAP antibody in the medium decreased significantly GSIS in a dose-dependent manner. These results indicate that endogenous INGAP plays a physiological positive modulatory role in insulin secretion, supporting its possible use in the treatment of prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes.