A simple analysis of the U.S. emission permits auctions

We examine a stylized version of EPA auctions when agents know the list of values of sellers and buyers. Sellers and buyers behave strategically. We show that there are two types of equilibria: inefficient equilibria where no goods are traded and efficient equilibria where alI exchange occurs at a uniform price. We also provide examples of the EPA auction game under incomplete information when the uniform price equilibrium holds and when it does not hold. When the uniform price equilibrium holds, sellers shade their bids up and buyers shade their bids down. In the example where the uniform price equilibrium does not hold, both buyers and sellers shade their bids down in an equilibrium.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Towards a Systematic Framework for the Modelling of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Quotas in China

The needs for effectively controlling carbon dioxide emissions and properly allocating carbon dioxide emission permits or allowances in China have never been so great. In this paper, a systematic multi-agent-based framework for the modelling and analysis of the allocation of carbon dioxide emission quotas in China is proposed. A carbon trading market model as the core of the activities of allocation management is constructed and discussed. In addition, examples of the modelling and simulation work are presented.

Cost effectiveness of a combination of instruments for global warming: a quantitative approach for Spain

Climate change is an important environmental problem and one whose economic implications are many and varied. This paper starts with the presumption that mitigation of greenhouse gases is a necessary policy that has to be designed in a cost effective way. It is well known that market instruments are the best option for cost effectiveness. But the discussion regarding which of the various market instruments should be used, how they may interact and what combinations of policies should be implemented is still open and very lively. In this paper we propose a combination of instruments: the marketable emission permits already in place in Europe for major economic sectors and a CO(2) tax for economic sectors not included in the emissions permit scheme. The study uses an applied general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy to compute the results obtained with the new mix of instruments proposed. As the combination of the market for emission permits and the CO(2) tax admits different possibilities that depend on how the mitigation is distributed among the economic sectors, we concentrate on four possibilities: cost-effective, equalitarian, proportional to emissions, and proportional to output distributions. Other alternatives to the CO(2) tax are also analysed (tax on energy, on oil and on electricity). Our findings suggest that careful, well designed policies are needed as any deviation imposes significant additional costs that increase more than proportionally to the level of emissions reduction targeted by the EU.

Market Instruments and CO2 Mitigation: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Spain

25 p.

Carrier transport assisted by dopants in doped poly(N-vinylcarbozole) light-emitting diodes

We have investigated the transient electroluminescence (EL) onset of the double-layer light-emitting devices made from poly(N-vinylcarbozole) (PVK) doped with 4-(dicyanomethylene)-2-t-butyl-6(1,1,7,7-tetramethyljulolidyl-9-enyl)-4H-pyran (DCJTB) and tris(8-hydroxy-quinoline) aluminium (Alq(3)). For the double-layered device in which PVK was doped with 0.1 wt% DCJTB, the EL onset of PVK lags that of DCJTB and Alq(3), while the EL onset of DCJTB and Alq(3) is simultaneous. However, the EL emission of the double-layered device of PVK/Alq(3) originates only from Alq(3). The results show that DCJTB dopants can not only help to tunnel electrons from Alq(3) zone to PVK but can also assist electrons transfer in PVK under high electric field by hopping between DCJTB molecules or from DCJTB to PVK sites at a low doping concentration of 0.1 wt%. When the DCJTB doping concentration is 4.0 wt%, the EL onset of Alq(3) lags that of DCJTB. The difference in the EL onsets of DCJTB, Alq(3) and PVK is attributed to the slow build-up of the internal space charge in the vicinity of the interface between PVK and Alq(3). The electron potential difference of the interface between Alq(3) and PVK doped by DCJTB can be adjusted by changing the DCJTB doping concentration in double-layer devices.

A "Triple-I" Strategy for the Future of Europe. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 10/2005

The paper lays down a strategy consisting of Innovation, Internalisation of Externalities, and Integration – called Triple I. ‘Innovation’ is seen along value chain management in a systems perspective, driven by competition and participation of stakeholders. ‘Internalisation’ refers to endogenous efforts by industry to assess externalities and to foster knowledge generation that leads to benefits for both business and society. ‘Integration’ highlights the role business and its various forms of cooperation might play in policy integration within Europe and beyond. Looking forward towards measures to be taken, the paper explores some frontiers for a partnership between public and private sector: i) Increasing resource productivity, lowering material cost, ii) Energy integration with Southeast Europe and Northern Africa, iii) Urban mobility services and public transport, iv) Tradable emission permits beyond Europe. Finally, some conclusions from the perspective of the College of Europe are drawn.

Performance comparison of 40 Gb/s ULH transmissions using CSRZ-ASK or CSRZ-DPSK modulation formats on UltraWave (TM) fiber

In this work we present extensive comparisons between numerical modelling and experimental measurements of the transmission performance of either CSRZ-ASK or CSRZ-DPSK modulation formats for 40-Gb/s WDM ULH systems on UltraWave (TM) fiber spans with all-Raman amplification. We numerically optimised the amplification and the signal format parameters for both CSRZ-DPSK and CSRZ-ASK formats. Numerical and experimental results show that, in a properly optimized transmission link, the DPSK format permits to double the transmission distance ( for a given BER level) with respect to the ASK format, while keeping a substantial OSNR margin ( on ASK modulation) after the propagation in the fiber line. Our comparison between numerical and experimental results permits to identify what is the most suitable BER estimator in assessing the transmission performance when using the DPSK format. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.

Performance comparison of 40 Gb/s ULH transmissions using CSRZ-ASK or CSRZ-DPSK modulation formats on Ultra Wave™ fiber

In this work we present extensive comparisons between numerical modelling and experimental measurements of the transmission performance of either CSRZ-ASK or CSRZ-DPSK modulation formats for 40-Gb/s WDM ULH systems on UltraWave™ fiber spans with all-Raman amplification. We numerically optimised the amplification and the signal format parameters for both CSRZ-DPSK and CSRZ-ASK formats. Numerical and experimental results show that, in a properly optimized transmission link, the DPSK format permits to double the transmission distance (for a given BER level) with respect to the ASK format, while keeping a substantial OSNR margin (on ASK modulation) after the propagation in the fiber line. Our comparison between numerical and experimental results permits to identify what is the most suitable BER estimator in assessing the transmission performance when using the DPSK format. © 2007 Optical Society of America.

Optimal Control of Heterogeneous Systems

Цветомир Цачев - В настоящия доклад се прави преглед на някои резултати от областта на оптималното управление на непрекъснатите хетерогенни системи, публикувани в периодичната научна литература в последните години. Една динамична система се нарича хетерогенна, ако всеки от нейните елементи има собствена динамиката. Тук разглеждаме оптимално управление на системи, чиято хетерогенност се описва с едномерен или двумерен параметър – на всяка стойност на параметъра отговаря съответен елемент на системата. Хетерогенните динамични системи се използват за моделиране на процеси в икономиката, епидемиологията, биологията, опазване на обществената сигурност (ограничаване на използването на наркотици) и др. Тук разглеждаме модел на оптимално инвестиране в образование на макроикономическо ниво [11], на ограничаване на последствията от разпространението на СПИН [9], на пазар на права за въглеродни емисии [3, 4] и на оптимален макроикономически растеж при повишаване на нивото на върховите технологии [1]. Ключови думи: оптимално управление, непрекъснати хетерогенни динамични системи, приложения в икономиката и епидемиолегията

Methods, Models & Systems for Dealing with Some Business, Management & Engineering Problems

This keynote presentation will report some of our research work and experience on the development and applications of relevant methods, models, systems and simulation techniques in support of different types and various levels of decision making for business, management and engineering. In particular, the following topics will be covered. Modelling, multi-agent-based simulation and analysis of the allocation management of carbon dioxide emission permits in China (Nanfeng Liu & Shuliang Li Agent-based simulation of the dynamic evolution of enterprise carbon assets (Yin Zeng & Shuliang Li) A framework & system for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps: a big data perspective (Jin Xu, Zheng Li, Shuliang Li & Yanyan Zhang) Open innovation: intelligent model, social media & complex adaptive system simulation (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A framework, model and software prototype for modelling and simulation for deshopping behaviour and how companies respond (Shawkat Rahman & Shuliang Li) Integrating multiple agents, simulation, knowledge bases and fuzzy logic for international marketing decision making (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A Web-based hybrid intelligent system for combined conventional, digital, mobile, social media and mobile marketing strategy formulation (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A hybrid intelligent model for Web & social media dynamics, and evolutionary and adaptive branding (Shuliang Li) A hybrid paradigm for modelling, simulation and analysis of brand virality in social media (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) Network configuration management: attack paradigms and architectures for computer network survivability (Tero Karvinen & Shuliang Li)

Auctioning versus grandfathering in cap-and-trade systems with market power and incomplete information

We compare auctioning and grandfathering as allocation mechanisms of emission permits when there is a secondary market with market power and firms have private information on their own abatement technologies. Based on real-life cases such as the EU ETS, we consider a multi-unit, multi-bid uniform auction. At the auction, each firm anticipates its role in the secondary market, either as a leader or a follower. This role affects each firms’ valuation of the permits (which are not common across firms) as well as their bidding strategies and it precludes the auction from generating a cost-effective allocation of permits, as it occurs in simpler auction models. Auctioning tends to be more cost-effective than grandfathering when the firms’ abatement cost functions are sufficiently different from one another, especially if the follower has lower abatement costs than the leader and the dispersion of the marginal costs is large enough.

The enhancement of spontaneous emission factor in selectively oxidized vertical cavity lasers with double oxide layers

The behaviors of lateral propagating modes in the aperture and the oxidized regions are investigated numerically for selectively oxidized vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs). The results show that the lateral propagating modes in the oxidized region are greatly affected by the oxide layer due to its low index, the modes are divergence for the VCSELs with sufficient thick double oxide layers. So the coupling between the modes in the aperture and oxidized regions is very weak, and we can expect that the lateral spontaneous emission is greatly affected in this case. Ignoring the contribution of the lateral spontaneous emission, we calculate spontaneous emission factor by counting the total number of the guided modes in selectively oxidized VCSELs with double oxide layers. The results agree very well with the reported measurements and are inversely proportional to the lateral index step.