'Beheading', Rule Manipulation and Fraud: The Approval of Election Results in Brazil, 1894-1930

Studies of electoral fraud tend to focus their analyses only on the pre-electoral or electoral phases. By examining the Brazilian First Republic (1889-1930), this article shifts the focus to a later phase, discussing a particular type of electoral fraud that has been little explored by the literature, namely, that perpetrated by the legislatures themselves during the process of giving final approval to election results. The Brazilian case is interesting because of a practice known as degola ('beheading') whereby electoral results were altered when Congress decided on which deputies to certify as duly elected. This has come to be seen as a widespread and standard practice in this period. However, this article shows that this final phase of rubber-stamping or overturning election results was important not because of the number of degolas, which was actually much lower than the literature would have us believe, but chiefly because of their strategic use during moments of political uncertainty. It argues that the congressional certification of electoral results was deployed as a key tool in ensuring the political stability of the Republican regime in the absence of an electoral court.

On the Political Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Election Results

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed political aspects is the relationship that, from a partisan or ideological perspective, should exist between the election results and the aging level of the voters, which is to be reflected in different electoral costs of unemployment. This chapter updates previous work on the subject, using a spatial econometrics methodology to estimate the relationship between the levels of aging and the election results that were obtained in the most recent elections that took place in Portugal, i.e. the October 2015 legislative elections. The results confirm the hypothesis that the level of unemployment involves a higher (resp. lower) electoral cost the less (resp. more) aged is the electorate.

In the shadow of Grexit: the Greek election of 17 June 2012

This article provides an overview and analysis of the Greek June 2012 elections. Placing the elections within the broader framework of the Greek socio-political and economic context, it discusses the electoral campaign and results, juxtaposing them to the 6 May electoral round. The election results confirmed many of the trends of the previous round, including electoral volatility, the fragmentation of the party system and the rise of anti-establishment forces. The main difference was the entrenchment of the pro- versus anti- bailout division and the prominence of the question of Greece’s continued Eurozone membership.

Mortgage nation : the 2004 Australian election

A comprehensive study of the historic win by the Howard Coalition Government providing analyses of the campaigns, an insight from the key players at the centre of devising the campaigns and covers election results and their interpretation.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Mainstream media behavior analysis on Twitter:a case study on UK general election

With the development of social media tools such as Facebook and Twitter, mainstream media organizations including newspapers and TV media have played an active role in engaging with their audience and strengthening their influence on the recently emerged platforms. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of mainstream media on Twitter and study how they exert their influence to shape public opinion during the UK's 2010 General Election. We first propose an empirical measure to quantify mainstream media bias based on sentiment analysis and show that it correlates better with the actual political bias in the UK media than the pure quantitative measures based on media coverage of various political parties. We then compare the information diffusion patterns from different categories of sources. We found that while mainstream media is good at seeding prominent information cascades, its role in shaping public opinion is being challenged by journalists since tweets from them are more likely to be retweeted and they spread faster and have longer lifespan compared to tweets from mainstream media. Moreover, the political bias of the journalists is a good indicator of the actual election results. Copyright 2013 ACM.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

The Influence of Accounting Information in the Re-Election of the Mayors in Portugal

The changes recommended by the New Public Management (NPM) in public accounting have given special attention and importance to the evaluation of mayor’s performance by citizens/voters. Thus, this study aims to assess the impact of accounting information on the re-election of Portuguese mayors. Taking the agency theory as a point of departure, we start from the following research question: Does the accounting information disclosed by the municipalities influence the re-election of Portuguese mayors? The research methodology used in this study is the quantitative type, through which a multivariate analysis of data was performed on 308 Portuguese municipalities, in the period 2005-2008, based on the election results of 2009. The results from the binary logistic regression show that some indicators of accounting nature have impact on the re-election of mayors in Portugal, namely, the components of financial accounting and municipal revenues.

Metrics for Understanding Communication on Twitter

As the systematic investigation of Twitter as a communications platform continues, the question of developing reliable comparative metrics for the evaluation of public, communicative phenomena on Twitter becomes paramount. What is necessary here is the establishment of an accepted standard for the quantitative description of user activities on Twitter. This needs to be flexible enough in order to be applied to a wide range of communicative situations, such as the evaluation of individual users’ and groups of users’ Twitter communication strategies, the examination of communicative patterns within hashtags and other identifiable ad hoc publics on Twitter (Bruns & Burgess, 2011), and even the analysis of very large datasets of everyday interactions on the platform. By providing a framework for quantitative analysis on Twitter communication, researchers in different areas (e.g., communication studies, sociology, information systems) are enabled to adapt methodological approaches and to conduct analyses on their own. Besides general findings about communication structure on Twitter, large amounts of data might be used to better understand issues or events retrospectively, detect issues or events in an early stage, or even to predict certain real-world developments (e.g., election results; cf. Tumasjan, Sprenger, Sandner, & Welpe, 2010, for an early attempt to do so).

PICES Press, Vol. 16, No. 1, January 2008

◾PICES Science in 2007 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾FUTURE - A milestone reached but our task is not done (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) ◾International symposium on "Reproductive and Recruitment Processes of Exploited Marine Fish Stocks" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾Recent results of the micronekton sampling inter-calibration experiment (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 PICES workshop on "Measuring and monitoring primary productivity in the North Pacific" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 Harmful Algal Bloom Section annual workshop events (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾A global approach for recovery and sustainability of marine resources in Large Marine Ecosystems (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Highlights of the PICES Sixteenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾Ocean acidification of the North Pacific Ocean (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Workshop on NE Pacific Coastal Ecosystems (2008 Call for Salmon Survival Forecasts) (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2007 (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Election results at PICES (pdf, 0.2 Mb) ◾A new PICES award for monitoring and data management activities (pdf, < 0.1 Mb)

Les derniers écueils vers la parité politique en Belgique: Une analyse des élections régionales de 2004

In Belgium, gender-parity has been compulsory for all party lists (in local, regional, federal and European elections) for several years. As a result, the proportion of women has risen from a fourth up to a third of the deputies. Yet, strict parity is still far from realised. This article seeks to establish what causes this glass ceiling, namely the parties' reluctance to place female candidates in the top positions or even as the front-runner. In a proportional representation system with half-open lists, and especially when the constituencies are small, this automatically leads to a smaller proportion of women among the elected deputies. One important reason for the parties' reluctance to rank female candidates higher is their assumption that women are less effective as "election locomotives" than men. However, the analysis of the Belgian election results makes clear that this is not the case. Female candidates in top positions are as successful as their male counterparts. © (2008) Swiss Political Science Review.

TU Graz: Course: 707.000 Web Science and Web Technology: Lecture 4: Social Network Analysis

What are fundamental entities in social networks and what information is contained in social graphs? We will discuss some selected concepts in social network analysis, such as one- and two mode networks, prestige and centrality, and cliques, clans and clubs. Readings: Web tool predicts election results and stock prices, J. Palmer, New Scientist, 07 February (2008) [Protected Access] Optional: Social Network Analysis, Methods and Applications, S. Wasserman and K. Faust (1994)

El papel del miedo en la escogencia del electorado en las elecciones presidenciales del año 2002 en Colombia

El comportamiento electoral en comicios presidenciales y la decisión del voto en el país contempla una variedad de factores como lo son las características demográficas, la filiación partidista, los temas de campaña, el mensaje, la imagen, así como otras variables comúnmente estudiadas con el ánimo de relacionar su incidencia en los resultados electorales. Sin embargo, el presente texto no entra en las consideraciones que sobre la decisión del voto tienen dichos factores. Por el contrario, alude concretamente a un factor en particular que es el miedo y el papel que jugo este sentimiento en las elecciones presidenciales del año 2002 en Colombia como una alternativa más de los factores que pudieron influir en la escogencia del electorado como consecuencia del recrudecimiento de la violencia en el país en el marco de las negociaciones de paz con la Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC

La subpoliarquía colombiana. Deficiencias estatales, democracia deficitaria

El artículo analiza la democracia colombiana en la década 2002-2011. El argumento central es que Colombia representa un caso de una democracia con déficits, que no alcanza a cubrir las condiciones mínimas de las democracias políticas y se constituye en una subpoliarquía. En esta condición incide de forma  directa las deficiencias estatales, en sus dimensiones de coacción y cohesión social. Los déficits democráticos se presentan en las condiciones básicas de la competencia  política, con elecciones periódicas, pero no libres ni competitivas ni limpias; en la presencia continuada de fraude y manipulación de los resultados electorales y en la  ausencia de garantías para las libertades civiles y políticas. Estas características justifican los diversos adjetivos aplicados a la democracia colombiana, siempre  en clave negativa.

Los efectos de la presencia paramilitar en Córdoba en las elecciones legislativas 2002-2006

El presente estudio de caso analiza el impacto de la influencia paramilitar en los resultados de las elecciones legislativas 2002 y 2006 en el Departamento de Córdoba. Busca principalmente establecer distinciones entre los diferentes casos agrupados en la noción de ‘parapolítica’. Para ello reseña el desarrollo del paramilitarismo en el Departamento y su relación con las élites políticas, posteriormente se construyó un índice de Hegemonía que indica el predominio de determinado candidato en más de la mitad de los votos de un municipio, y se analizan diversos mapas elaborados a partir de los coeficientes de Pearson y Moran. Finalmente, a partir del contraste entre el análisis estadístico y la información documental se presenta una tipología que recoge los diversos matices del apoyo paramilitar según los distintos candidatos.