Children’s reasoning about other’s intentions: False-belief and counterfactual conditional inferences

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Machine ethics via logic programming

Machine ethics is an interdisciplinary field of inquiry that emerges from the need of imbuing autonomous agents with the capacity of moral decision-making. While some approaches provide implementations in Logic Programming (LP) systems, they have not exploited LP-based reasoning features that appear essential for moral reasoning. This PhD thesis aims at investigating further the appropriateness of LP, notably a combination of LP-based reasoning features, including techniques available in LP systems, to machine ethics. Moral facets, as studied in moral philosophy and psychology, that are amenable to computational modeling are identified, and mapped to appropriate LP concepts for representing and reasoning about them. The main contributions of the thesis are twofold. First, novel approaches are proposed for employing tabling in contextual abduction and updating – individually and combined – plus a LP approach of counterfactual reasoning; the latter being implemented on top of the aforementioned combined abduction and updating technique with tabling. They are all important to model various issues of the aforementioned moral facets. Second, a variety of LP-based reasoning features are applied to model the identified moral facets, through moral examples taken off-the-shelf from the morality literature. These applications include: (1) Modeling moral permissibility according to the Doctrines of Double Effect (DDE) and Triple Effect (DTE), demonstrating deontological and utilitarian judgments via integrity constraints (in abduction) and preferences over abductive scenarios; (2) Modeling moral reasoning under uncertainty of actions, via abduction and probabilistic LP; (3) Modeling moral updating (that allows other – possibly overriding – moral rules to be adopted by an agent, on top of those it currently follows) via the integration of tabling in contextual abduction and updating; and (4) Modeling moral permissibility and its justification via counterfactuals, where counterfactuals are used for formulating DDE.

Putting the Special Case in Its Place: Switzerland and Small-N Comparison in Policy Research

This research note presents a set of strategies to conduct small-N comparisons in policy research including the Swiss case. Even though every country can be considered "special" to some extent, the Swiss political system is often viewed as a particularly difficult case for comparison because of the impact of its idiosyncratic institutional features (most notably direct democracy). In order to deal with this problem, our note sets out two possible strategies - the use of functional equivalents and of counterfactual reasoning - and explains how to implement them empirically through process tracing and the establishment of causal chains. As an illustration, these strategies are used for a comparison of the process of electricity market liberalisation in Switzerland and Belgium.

Raciocínio contrafactual e modelos mentais

A ideia central deste estudo é de que «... raciocinar sobre factos e raciocinar sobre possibilidades e impossibilidades, baseia-se nos mesmos tipos de representações mentais e processos cognitivos» (Byrne, 1997, p. 107). Quer dizer que as pessoas raciocinam através da construção e revisão de modelos mentais (e.g., Johnson-Laird, Byrne, 1991). As condicionais contrafactuais requerem que os raciocinadores tenham em mente não apenas o que é suposto ser verdadeiro, mas também o que é supostamente verdadeiro mas factualmente falso (Byrne, 1997, p. 117; cf. Johnson-Laird, Byrne, 1991, pp. 72- -73). E a hipótese de que a representação inicial de uma condicional contrafactual é mais explícita do que a de uma condicional factual, permite prever que as inferências Modus Tollens e Negação do Antecedente deverão ser feitas com maior frequência a partir das condicionais contrafactuais do que das factuais. Byrne e Tasso (in press) encontraram evidência para esta hipótese. No estudo que apresentamos, também procuramos replicar esses resultados encontrados por Byrne e Tasso, e acrescentamos algumas hipóteses relacionadas com as latências para compreender os dois tipos de condicionais, e para escolher a conclusão. Utilizamos condicionais neutras do tipo «Se houve um círculo, então houve um triângulo», e apresentamos aos participantes os quatro silogismos condicionais no programa SUPERLAB.

Children’s understanding of counterfactual alternatives

This study examines how children integrate information about counterfactual alternatives in making judgments. Previous research in adults had shown that they make judgments on the basis of comparisons between factual events and counterfactual alternatives. We suggest that children adopt a summative strategy instead, where they focus on the presented outcomes, both real and counterfactual, and base their judgments on the overall affective quality of these outcomes. Results from a single experiment comparing adults’ and children’s responses to a counterfactual judgment task show that children do tend to use a summative strategy as opposed to the comparative strategy adopted by adults. These results were further supported by participants’ justifications of their judgments, which were alternative focused for the adults, but outcome focused for the children. The results are discussed in relation to complexity-based theories of the development of human reasoning.

Improving Critical Thinking and Clinical Reasoning With a Continuing Education Course

Background: Continuing education courses related to critical thinking and clinical reasoning are needed to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. Method: This study evaluated a 4-day, 16-hour continuing education course conducted in Brazil. Thirty-nine nurses completed a pretest and a posttest consisting of two written case studies designed to measure the accuracy of nurses` diagnoses. Results: There were significant differences in accuracy from pretest to posttest for case 1 (p = .008) and case 2 (p = .042) and overall (p = .001). Conclusion: Continuing education courses should be implemented to improve the accuracy of nurses` diagnoses. J Contin Educ Nurs 2009;40(3):121-127.

Equational Reasoning as a Tool for Data Analysis

A combination of deductive reasoning, clustering, and inductive learning is given as an example of a hybrid system for exploratory data analysis. Visualization is replaced by a dialogue with the data.

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996-2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8-12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1-21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8-11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8-12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9-24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.

The frontal assessment battery (FAB) reveals neurocognitive dysfunction in substance-dependent individuals in distinct executive domains: Abstract reasoning, motor programming, and cognitive flexibility

Substance-dependence is highly associated with executive cognitive function (ECF) impairments. However. considering that it is difficult to assess ECF clinically, the aim of the present study was to examine the feasibility of a brief neuropsychological tool (the Frontal Assessment Battery FAB) to detect specific ECF impairments in a sample of substance-dependent individuals (SDI). Sixty-two subjects participated in this study. Thirty DSM-IV-diagnosed SDI, after 2 weeks of abstinence, and 32 healthy individuals (control group) were evaluated with FAD and other ECF-related tasks: digits forward (DF), digits backward (DB), Stroop Color Word Test (SCWT), and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST). SDI did not differ from the control group on sociodemographic variables or IQ. However, SDI performed below the controls in OF, DB, and FAB. The SDI were cognitively impaired in 3 of the 6 cognitive domains assessed by the FAB: abstract reasoning, motor programming, and cognitive flexibility. The FAB correlated with DF, SCWT, and WCST. In addition, some neuropsychological measures were correlated with the amount of alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine use. In conclusion, SDI performed more poorly than the comparison group on the FAB and the FAB`s results were associated with other ECF-related tasks. The results suggested a negative impact of alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine use on the ECF. The FAB may be useful in assisting professionals as an instrument to screen for ECF-related deficits in SDI. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.