Reservas internacionais ótimas de um país: um estudo do caso brasileiro

O objetivo deste trabalho analisar acumulação de reservas internacionais por parte de países como Brasil, que acumulam reservas na tentativa de se proteger de crises externas bem como diminuir tal probabilidade. Desejamos analisar determinação do nível ótimo de reservas. Apresentaremos um breve histórico da literatura sobre acumulação de reservas. No estudo do Brasil, discutiremos nível ótimo de reservas internacionais brasileiras usando modelo de buffer stock, partir de uma abordagem de séries temporais, diferindo de trabalhos anteriores usando dados cross-section.

INVENTORY CONTROL SYSTEM : Optimization of production system and reliability

The main idea of this research to solve the problem of inventory management for the paper industry SPM PVT limited. The aim of this research was to find a methodology by which the inventory of raw material could be kept at minimum level by means of buffer stock level.The main objective then lies in finding the minimum level of buffer stock according to daily consumption of raw material, finding the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) reorders point and how much order will be placed in a year to control the shortage of raw material.In this project, we discuss continuous review model (Deterministic EOQ models) that includes the probabilistic demand directly in the formulation. According to the formula, we see the reorder point and the order up to model. The problem was tackled mathematically as well as simulation modeling was used where mathematically tractable solution was not possible.The simulation modeling was done by Awesim software for developing the simulation network. This simulation network has the ability to predict the buffer stock level based on variable consumption of raw material and lead-time. The data collection for this simulation network is taken from the industrial engineering personnel and the departmental studies of the concerned factory. At the end, we find the optimum level of order quantity, reorder point and order days.

Modelli e metodi per il dimensionamento di buffer floor-storage in magazzini scaffalati.

In questa tesi sono stati studiati i fattori che influenzano l'utilizzo del buffer in un magazzino manuale. Per poter realizzare le analisi è stato realizzato un programma C# che simula la gestione del magazzino. Per ottimizzare l'assegnamento dei pallet alle location si è inoltre costruito un modello AMPL. L'obiettivo del modello è minimizzare la differenza tra le classi ottime dei codici in ingresso e i posti pallet ai quali questi vengono assegnati. Il programma C# oltre all'interfaccia con il risolutore AMPL Gurobi, deve interfacciarsi anche con il data base Access nel quale sono stati organizzati i dati necessari per l'analisi. Questi dati sono reali e relativi agli ingressi e alle uscite di un magazzino contenente materiale farmaceutico di due settimane di lavoro. Per facilitare e velocizzare lo studio le informazioni considerate sono quelle di due soli corridoi e non dell'intero magazzino. I risultati hanno evidenziato quattro fattori principali che influenzano la differenza tra un l'allocazione dei pallet in ingresso ad un magazzino. Questi elementi sono: costo di utilizzo del buffer, numero di location libere ad inizio simulazione, momento d'esecuzione del picking a magazzino e tipologia di location vute ad inizio della simulazione. Per ognuno di questi si è cercato, per quanto possibile, di individuare le implicazioni che quanto studiato può avere nella progettazione di un sistema di stoccaggio reale sia dal punto di vista logistico sia dal punto di vista economico. Non sempre le osservazioni reali alle quali si è arrivati hanno un risvolto pratico immediato, ma senza dubbio possono essere utili nello studio preliminare per la realizzazione di un sistema di stoccaggio. All'interno delle conclusioni sono state inserite anche possibili studi e approfondimenti futuri che possono essere eseguiti partendo dal progetto di tesi qui presentato.

Sähkölaitekaapelipäätteiden kokoonpanotuotannon siirtäminen alihankkijalle

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää kustannussäästöjä sähkölaitekomponentin kokoonpano- tuotannossa. Työssä vertaillaan oman ja alihankintatuotannon välisiä kustannuksia sekä tarkastellaan toiminnan joustavuutta, kun kokoonpano muodostuu kokonaisuudessaan ostettavista osista ja kuljetusmatka osien tuottajilta sekä myyjiltä on lyhyempi alihankkijalle, kuin omalle tehtaalle. Työssä järjestellään tuotteen kokoonpanolle edellytykset siirtymiseen alihankkijan hoidetta-vaksi niin, ettei siitä aiheudu ongelmia osavalmistuksen ja hankinnan, sekä valmiiden tuotteiden hallinnassa. Työssä selvitellään tuotteenmerkitystä ja sen kehittämistä sähkölaiteteollisuudelle. Tuotteen ja tuotannon kehittämisestä oli kohdeyrityksessä perustettu erityinen projekti, johon kuului myös muita sähkökaapeliliitäntään kuuluvia osia. Tuoteryhmä,jota tämä tutkimus käsittelee, siirrettiin alihankkijan kokoonpanotuotantoon vuonna 2000. Kaapelipäätteet kuuluvat yhtenä vaihtoehtoisena osana sähkölaitteiden voimakaape- loinnin läpivientiin ja suojaukseen. Projektissa kehitettiin 3 erilaista kaapelipäättä, joiden tehtävänä oli korvata 20 aikaisempaa mallia. Tällä tavoin kyseisen tuotteen ja sen komponenttien valmistussarjakokoja voitiin nostaa ja silti tuotannonkiertoa nopeuttaa, koska puskurivarastossa olevien variaatioiden määrä väheni 20:sta 3:een. Myös osa kokoonpanossa käytettävistä komponenteista voitiin käyttää kaikkien kaapelipäätemallien kokoonpanossa. Työssä vertaillaan kuljetuskustannusten eroa osahankinnassa oman ja alihankinta- tuotannon välillä, sekä vertaillaan varaston ja tuotannon tilankäyttöä ja tuotantokapasiteettia. Työn tarkoituksena on perustella ajatusta, että kuljetusmatkoja lyhentämällä voitaisiin saada kustannussäästöjä. Oman ja alihankintatyön kustannuksia vertaillaan ja huomattava säästö kokoonpanotyössä on tässä tapauksessa se, että alihankkijan laskutushinta työlle on alhaisempi, kuin mitä työn osuudelle on määritelty omassa tuotannossa. Varastotilan osalta vertailuatehtiin ainoastaan tilan käytön suhteen.

Distribution development in global business environment

The purpose of this master’s thesis was to analyze a case company’s distribution and its elements. With different distribution structure options a customer can be served with different ways. However, cost elements and service elements create different trade-offs. In this work the case company’s distribution’s present state was analyzed and conclusions were made. Based on these conclusions different alternatives for distribution were created. These different alternatives were analyzed through simulations and with more traditional calculations to compose the total operative costs of each alternative. Also other aspects were considered, such as required organizational changes and the possible better customer service. With the suggested 3-stock distribution structure shorter delivery times and possibly more punctual deliveries for products kept in stock could be achieved with the same operative costs as in current direct delivery model. Also, similar benefits could be achieved with other products with the 3-stock model.

Herramienta funcional para desarrollo y manejo de un modelo de gestión de inventarios

Esta tesis surge como una oportunidad de crear una herramienta de mejora en las empresas, para controlar los inventarios de la manera más adecuada. Debido a los desórdenes de los precios en el mercado, las promociones no planeadas, y la confrontación de pronósticos optimistas Vs. Pronósticos conservadores, se presenta un gran volumen de devoluciones, repercutiendo en el deterioro de la cartera y afectando directamente las metas estratégicas de las empresas. Tras esta clara oportunidad de mejora, se toma la decisión de evaluar el modelo de pronóstico que arroje los valores más acertados para la planeación de la demanda. Por otro lado, se analizo el mejor modelo de inventarios con sus respectivos indicadores de control. Dando como resultado una herramienta parametrizada en Excel, que arroja datos de pronósticos de ventas más acertados y optimiza la gestión de los inventarios. Esta herramienta contiene un modelo de gestión de inventarios de revisión continua, lo cual brinda información más acertada de la demanda que enfrenta la compañía, las ventas que puede generar, y los procesos que necesita planear para respaldar su actividad.

Factores psicosociales y bienestar del trabajador en investigaciones realizadas en Colombia y España, durante el período 2002-2012 .

Introducción. En el presente trabajo se pretende identificar los factores psicosociales laborales asociados con el bienestar del trabajador en investigaciones realizadas en Colombia y España, durante el periodo 2002 – 2012. Objetivo. Este trabajo tiene como fin, precisar sobre el desarrollo investigativo en lo referente a los factores psicosociales y su relación con el bienestar, de los trabajadores en Colombia y España durante el período 2002-2012, por medio de los estudios encontrados sobre factores psicosociales y su impacto benéfico en el bienestar del trabajador, marco legal de ambos países, así como también, la revisión documental, consolidación y posterior análisis de la literatura, en torno al estado del arte del presente estudio en relación a los factores psicosociales laborales. Método. Se trata de un estudio documental, realizado por medio, de una revisión de literatura en las bases de datos y posterior selección, clasificación, consolidación, sistematización y análisis de los estudios de investigación encontrados, los cuales, analizaban aspectos relacionados con los factores psicosociales y su relación con el bienestar del trabajador en Colombia y España, durante el período 2002-2012. Resultados. En la revisión documental se evidenció que los estudios referentes a los factores psicosociales y su relación con el bienestar del trabajador, representa un importante y permanente reto para las organizaciones. De la misma manera, se destacan los avances que sobre dicha relación presenta España, pues, en Colombia, aun los estudios siguen direccionados hacia los factores de riesgo o perjudiciales, más que hacia factores protectores o de bienestar, generadores de un efecto benéfico en los trabajadores y por ende en la organización.

An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool

This paper introduces a new agent-based model, which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long-term domestic stock model, and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis. The results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80% target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re-examining. In the model, current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies, which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential. The model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative, more effective, sets of policy measures. The model is currently limited to the owner-occupied stock in England, although it can be expanded, subject to the availability of data.

Global economic developments, 2000-2001

Includes bibliography

Experimental results for Myopic Loss Aversion

This data is experimental results of "Myopic Loss Aversion: An Experimental Analysis for the Flexibility of Investment and the Frequency of Information Feedback Using Two Period Binomial Stock Model".

The effects of changes in recycling patterns on United Kingdom resource consumption

Recycling, substitution and product life extension are identified as significant factors contributing to an extension of the time to exhaustion of industrially Dnportant materials. A quantitative assessment of the significance of virtually all materials to the U.K. is made. Copper is identified as one of the most important materials deserving of further investigation into potential resource savings through increased recycling. The other factors listed above are accounted for in the modelling technique employed. United Kingdom copper flows are qualitatively and statistically described for the years 1949 - 1976. Less accurate statistics are developed for 1922 - 1948. Adaptive expectations type causal models of total, unalloyed, and alloyed copper demand are successfully constructed and are used to generate future scenarios. Evidence is demonstrated for a break in the historical link between U.K. copper demand and industrial production. Simple causal models of potential copper scrap supply are constructed and a comparison made with actual old scrap withdrawals. Accurate adaptive expectations type models of total scrap demand are developed, but no conclusion is reached about the price elasticity of scrap demand. Various scenarios of copper goods demand are forecast and their effect on copper scrap demand. The potential to recover up to an extra 100.000 tonnes/year of generally lower grade old scrap is identified. Policy options are examined and the following recommendations made: 1) A total investment of up to £67 million in secondary refining capacity by the year 2000 is needed. 2) The copper scrap content of copper bearing goods should be specified to aid recovery. 3) A U.K. copper scrap buffer stock scheme would be advantageous for the secondary copper industry. Finally the methodology used is summarised for potential application to other materials.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 4 - The reflection of parasite stock in the responsiveness of different vector species to chronic infection with different Trypanosoma cruzi stocks

Previous studies (1982,1987) have emphasized the superiority of sylvatic vector species over domestic species as xenodiagnostic agents in testing hosts with acute or chronic infections by T. cruzi "Y" stock. The present study, which is unique in that it contains data on both infectivity rates produced by the same stock in 11 different vector species and also the reaction of the same vector species to seven different parasite stocks, establishes the general validity of linking efficiency of xenodiagnosis to the biotope of its agent. For example, infectivity rates produced by "São Felipe" stock varied from 82.5% to 98.3% in sylvatic vectors but decreased to 42.5% to 71.3% in domestic species. "Colombiana" stock produced in the same sylvatic vectors infectivity rates ranging from 12.5% to 45%. These shrank to 5%-22.5% in domestic bugs. The functional role of the biotope in the vector-parasite interaction has not been eluddated. But since this phenomenon has been observed to be stable and easy to reproduce, it leads us to believe that the results obtained are valid. Data presented also provide increasing evidence that the infectivity rates exhibited by bugs from xenodiagnosis in chronic hosts, are parasite stock specific. For example, infectivity rates produced by "Berenice", "Y", "FL" and "CL" varied in R. neglectus from 26.3% to 75%; in P. megistus from 56.3% to 83.8%; in T. sordida from 28.8% to 58.8% in T. pseudomaculata from 41.3% to 66.3% and in T. rubrovaria from 48.8% to 85%. Data from xenodiagnosis in the same hosts, carrying acute infections by the same parasite stocks, gave the five sylvatic vectors a positive rating of approximately 100%, thus suggesting that the heavy loads of parasites circulating in the acute hosts obscured the characteristic interspecific differences for the parasite stock. Nonetheless these latter were revealed in the same hosts with chronic infections stimulated by very low numbers of the same parasite stocks. Certain observations here described lead us to speculate as to the possibility of further results from other parasite stocks, allowing the association of the infectivity rates produced in bugs by different parasite stocks with the isoenzymic patterns revealed by these stocks.

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.