930 resultados para Bayes Net


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Internet access by wireless networks has grown considerably in recent years. However, these networks are vulnerable to security problems, especially those related to denial of service attacks. Intrusion Detection Systems(IDS)are widely used to improve network security, but comparison among the several existing approaches is not a trivial task. This paper proposes building a datasetfor evaluating IDS in wireless environments. The data were captured in a real, operating network. We conducted tests using traditional IDS and achieved great results, which showed the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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We compare a set of empirical Bayes and composite estimators of the population means of the districts (small areas) of a country, and show that the natural modelling strategy of searching for a well fitting empirical Bayes model and using it for estimation of the area-level means can be inefficient.

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Linear spaces consisting of σ-finite probability measures and infinite measures (improper priors and likelihood functions) are defined. The commutative group operation, called perturbation, is the updating given by Bayes theorem; the inverse operation is the Radon-Nikodym derivative. Bayes spaces of measures are sets of classes of proportional measures. In this framework, basic notions of mathematical statistics get a simple algebraic interpretation. For example, exponential families appear as affine subspaces with their sufficient statistics as a basis. Bayesian statistics, in particular some well-known properties of conjugated priors and likelihood functions, are revisited and slightly extended

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There are numerous text documents available in electronic form. More and more are becoming available every day. Such documents represent a massive amount of information that is easily accessible. Seeking value in this huge collection requires organization; much of the work of organizing documents can be automated through text classification. The accuracy and our understanding of such systems greatly influences their usefulness. In this paper, we seek 1) to advance the understanding of commonly used text classification techniques, and 2) through that understanding, improve the tools that are available for text classification. We begin by clarifying the assumptions made in the derivation of Naive Bayes, noting basic properties and proposing ways for its extension and improvement. Next, we investigate the quality of Naive Bayes parameter estimates and their impact on classification. Our analysis leads to a theorem which gives an explanation for the improvements that can be found in multiclass classification with Naive Bayes using Error-Correcting Output Codes. We use experimental evidence on two commonly-used data sets to exhibit an application of the theorem. Finally, we show fundamental flaws in a commonly-used feature selection algorithm and develop a statistics-based framework for text feature selection. Greater understanding of Naive Bayes and the properties of text allows us to make better use of it in text classification.

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Resumen basado en el de la publicaci??n

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XII Jornadas de Investigaci??n en el Aula de Matem??ticas : estad??stica y azar, celebradas en Granada, noviembre y diciembre de 2006. Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Mode of access: Internet.

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The challenge of detecting a change in the distribution of data is a sequential decision problem that is relevant to many engineering solutions, including quality control and machine and process monitoring. This dissertation develops techniques for exact solution of change-detection problems with discrete time and discrete observations. Change-detection problems are classified as Bayes or minimax based on the availability of information on the change-time distribution. A Bayes optimal solution uses prior information about the distribution of the change time to minimize the expected cost, whereas a minimax optimal solution minimizes the cost under the worst-case change-time distribution. Both types of problems are addressed. The most important result of the dissertation is the development of a polynomial-time algorithm for the solution of important classes of Markov Bayes change-detection problems. Existing techniques for epsilon-exact solution of partially observable Markov decision processes have complexity exponential in the number of observation symbols. A new algorithm, called constellation induction, exploits the concavity and Lipschitz continuity of the value function, and has complexity polynomial in the number of observation symbols. It is shown that change-detection problems with a geometric change-time distribution and identically- and independently-distributed observations before and after the change are solvable in polynomial time. Also, change-detection problems on hidden Markov models with a fixed number of recurrent states are solvable in polynomial time. A detailed implementation and analysis of the constellation-induction algorithm are provided. Exact solution methods are also established for several types of minimax change-detection problems. Finite-horizon problems with arbitrary observation distributions are modeled as extensive-form games and solved using linear programs. Infinite-horizon problems with linear penalty for detection delay and identically- and independently-distributed observations can be solved in polynomial time via epsilon-optimal parameterization of a cumulative-sum procedure. Finally, the properties of policies for change-detection problems are described and analyzed. Simple classes of formal languages are shown to be sufficient for epsilon-exact solution of change-detection problems, and methods for finding minimally sized policy representations are described.

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We report the first measurements of the moments--mean (M), variance (σ(2)), skewness (S), and kurtosis (κ)--of the net-charge multiplicity distributions at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at seven energies, ranging from sqrt[sNN]=7.7 to 200 GeV, as a part of the Beam Energy Scan program at RHIC. The moments are related to the thermodynamic susceptibilities of net charge, and are sensitive to the location of the QCD critical point. We compare the products of the moments, σ(2)/M, Sσ, and κσ(2), with the expectations from Poisson and negative binomial distributions (NBDs). The Sσ values deviate from the Poisson baseline and are close to the NBD baseline, while the κσ(2) values tend to lie between the two. Within the present uncertainties, our data do not show nonmonotonic behavior as a function of collision energy. These measurements provide a valuable tool to extract the freeze-out parameters in heavy-ion collisions by comparing with theoretical models.

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The 'dilution effect' (DE) hypothesis predicts that diverse host communities will show reduced disease. The underlying causes of pathogen dilution are complex, because they involve non-additive (driven by host interactions and differential habitat use) and additive (controlled by host species composition) mechanisms. Here, we used measures of complementarity and selection traditionally employed in the field of biodiversity-ecosystem function (BEF) to quantify the net effect of host diversity on disease dynamics of the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Complementarity occurs when average infection load in diverse host assemblages departs from that of each component species in uniform populations. Selection measures the disproportionate impact of a particular species in diverse assemblages compared with its performance in uniform populations, and therefore has strong additive and non-additive properties. We experimentally infected tropical amphibian species of varying life histories, in single- and multi-host treatments, and measured individual Bd infection loads. Host diversity reduced Bd infection in amphibians through a mechanism analogous to complementarity (sensu BEF), potentially by reducing shared habitat use and transmission among hosts. Additionally, the selection component indicated that one particular terrestrial species showed reduced infection loads in diverse assemblages at the expense of neighbouring aquatic hosts becoming heavily infected. By partitioning components of diversity, our findings underscore the importance of additive and non-additive mechanisms underlying the DE.

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Objetivou-se quantificar as frações de carboidratos pelas equações do Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) de três cultivares de girassol (Helianthus annuus L.) cultivados na presença ou não de irrigação. A utilização de uma preparação fibrosa, denominada parede celular (PC), nas equações da CNCPS, em substituição à fibra em detergente neutro (FDN) não promoveu diferenças nas frações de carboidratos B1 e C, mas influenciou as frações A e B2. Como os valores da fração B1, obtidos pelo modelo CNCPS foram menores que os teores de amido e pectina determinados em laboratório, supõe-se que a pectina e outros oligossacarídeos da parede celular, solubilizados pela solução de detergente neutro (fibra solúvel), nunca fizeram parte da fração B1, e sim da fração A. Apesar de os carboidratos da fibra solúvel apresentarem elevadas taxas de degradação, não parece adequada a caracterização da fibra solúvel na fração A. Parece mais adequado que a fibra solúvel (que inclui a pectina) seja alocada a uma fração exclusivamente sua, que pode ser a fração B2, e que seja criada uma nova fração, a B3, para os carboidratos digeríveis da parede celular. Assim, a fração B1 seria composta apenas de amido. A equação da fração C, que estima os carboidratos indigeríveis da parede celular, pode ser simplificada, relacionando a fração indigerível ao teor de lignina na matéria seca, e não à FDN isenta de cinzas e proteína, como atualmente utilizado. Esta proposta tem implicações práticas, uma vez que a fração indigerível da parede celular tem sido expressa em relação à FDN, e não na MS, com base no fato de que os efeitos inibitórios da lignina ocorrem sobre os componentes fibrosos da parede celular vegetal, e não sobre o conteúdo celular.

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We present measurements of net charge fluctuations in Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=19.6, 62.4, 130, and 200 GeV, Cu+Cu collisions at s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV, and p+p collisions at s=200 GeV using the dynamical net charge fluctuations measure nu(+-,dyn). We observe that the dynamical fluctuations are nonzero at all energies and exhibit a modest dependence on beam energy. A weak system size dependence is also observed. We examine the collision centrality dependence of the net charge fluctuations and find that dynamical net charge fluctuations violate 1/N(ch) scaling but display approximate 1/N(part) scaling. We also study the azimuthal and rapidity dependence of the net charge correlation strength and observe strong dependence on the azimuthal angular range and pseudorapidity widths integrated to measure the correlation.