A national satellite-based land-use regression model for air pollution exposure assessment in Australia

Land-use regression (LUR) is a technique that can improve the accuracy of air pollution exposure assessment in epidemiological studies. Most LUR models are developed for single cities, which places limitations on their applicability to other locations. We sought to develop a model to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations with national coverage of Australia by using satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns combined with other predictor variables. We used a generalised estimating equation (GEE) model to predict annual and monthly average ambient NO2 concentrations measured by a national monitoring network from 2006 through 2011. The best annual model explained 81% of spatial variation in NO2 (absolute RMS error=1.4 ppb), while the best monthly model explained 76% (absolute RMS error=1.9 ppb). We applied our models to predict NO2 concentrations at the ~350,000 census mesh blocks across the country (a mesh block is the smallest spatial unit in the Australian census). National population-weighted average concentrations ranged from 7.3 ppb (2006) to 6.3 ppb (2011). We found that a simple approach using tropospheric NO2 column data yielded models with slightly better predictive ability than those produced using a more involved approach that required simulation of surface-to-column ratios. The models were capable of capturing within-urban variability in NO2, and offer the ability to estimate ambient NO2 concentrations at monthly and annual time scales across Australia from 2006–2011. We are making our model predictions freely available for research.

A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function (CPDF) is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20–30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives.

Bio-inspired plume tracking algorithm for UAVS

There is an increased interest on the use of UAVs for environmental research and to track bush fire plumes, volcanic plumes or pollutant sources. The aim of this paper is to describe the theory and results of a bio-inspired plume tracking algorithm. A memory based and gradient based approach, were developed and compared. A method for generating sparse plumes was also developed. Results indicate the ability of the algorithms to track plumes in 2D and 3D.

Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health (UPTECH) in Brisbane, Queensland (Australia): Study design and implementation

Ultrafine particles are particles that are less than 0.1 micrometres (µm) in diameter. Due to their very small size they can penetrate deep into the lungs, and potentially cause more damage than larger particles. The Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health (UPTECH) study is the first Australian epidemiological study to assess the health effects of ultrafine particles on children’s health in general and peripheral airways in particular. The study is being conducted in Brisbane, Australia. Continuous indoor and outdoor air pollution monitoring was conducted within each of the twenty five participating school campuses to measure particulate matter, including in the ultrafine size range, and gases. Respiratory health effects were evaluated by conducting the following tests on participating children at each school: spirometry, forced oscillation technique (FOT) and multiple breath nitrogen washout test (MBNW) (to assess airway function), fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO, to assess airway inflammation), blood cotinine levels (to assess exposure to second-hand tobacco smoke), and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (to measure systemic inflammation). A pilot study was conducted prior to commencing the main study to assess the feasibility and reliably of measurement of some of the clinical tests that have been proposed for the main study. Air pollutant exposure measurements were not included in the pilot study.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes

Invasive non-native plants have negatively impacted on biodiversity and ecosystem functions world-wide. Because of the large number of species, their wide distributions and varying degrees of impact, we need a more effective method for prioritizing control strategies for cost-effective investment across heterogeneous landscapes. Here, we develop a prioritization framework that synthesizes scientific data, elicits knowledge from experts and stakeholders to identify control strategies, and appraises the cost-effectiveness of strategies. Our objective was to identify the most cost-effective strategies for reducing the total area dominated by high-impact non-native plants in the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). We use a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin that comprises some of the most distinctive Australian landscapes, including Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park. More than 240 non-native plant species are recorded in the Lake Eyre Basin, with many predicted to spread, but there are insufficient resources to control all species. Lake Eyre Basin experts identified 12 strategies to control, contain or eradicate non-native species over the next 50 years. The total cost of the proposed Lake Eyre Basin strategies was estimated at AU$1·7 billion, an average of AU$34 million annually. Implementation of these strategies is estimated to reduce non-native plant dominance by 17 million ha – there would be a 32% reduction in the likely area dominated by non-native plants within 50 years if these strategies were implemented. The three most cost-effective strategies were controlling Parkinsonia aculeata, Ziziphus mauritiana and Prosopis spp. These three strategies combined were estimated to cost only 0·01% of total cost of all the strategies, but would provide 20% of the total benefits. Over 50 years, cost-effective spending of AU$2·3 million could eradicate all non-native plant species from the only threatened ecological community within the Lake Eyre Basin, the Great Artesian Basin discharge springs. Synthesis and applications. Our framework, based on a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, provides a rationale for financially efficient investment in non-native plant management and reveals combinations of strategies that are optimal for different budgets. It also highlights knowledge gaps and incidental findings that could improve effective management of non-native plants, for example addressing the reliability of species distribution data and prevalence of information sharing across states and regions.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in dust from primary schools in South East Queensland, Australia

PBDE concentrations are higher in children compared to adults with exposure suggested to include dust ingestion. Besides the home environment, children spend a great deal of time in school classrooms which may be a source of exposure. As part of the “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children's Health (UPTECH)” project, dust samples (n=28) were obtained in 2011/12 from 10 Brisbane, Australia metropolitan schools and analysed using GC and LC–MS for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) -17, -28, -47, -49, -66, -85, -99, -100, -154, -183, and -209. Σ11PBDEs ranged from 11–2163 ng/g dust; with a mean and median of 600 and 469 ng/g dust, respectively. BDE-209 (range n.d. −2034 ng/g dust; mean (median) 402 (217) ng/g dust) was the dominant congener in most classrooms. Frequencies of detection were 96%, 96%, 39% and 93% for BDE-47, -99, -100 and -209, respectively. No seasonal variations were apparent and from each of the two schools where XRF measurements were carried out, only two classroom items had detectable bromine. PBDE intake for 8–11 year olds can be estimated at 0.094 ng/day BDE-47; 0.187 ng/day BDE-99 and 0.522 ng/day BDE-209 as a result of ingestion of classroom dust, based on mean PBDE concentrations. The 97.5% percentile intake is estimated to be 0.62, 1.03 and 2.14 ng/day for BDEs-47, -99 and -209, respectively. These PBDE concentrations in dust from classrooms, which are higher than in Australian homes, may explain some of the higher body burden of PBDEs in children compared to adults when taking into consideration age-dependant behaviours which increase dust ingestion.

Viemärin päässä Kotkan kaupunki : Vesiensuojelun kehitys Kymijoen itäisen päähaaran suulla 1945-1970

The focus of this thesis is the marine environmental history of the eastern part and the estuary of the Kymi river from 1945 to 1970. There is no previous research on this area from an environmentally historical perspective, nor have many of the sources here discussed been previously used. Therefore the thesis expands academic understanding of local environmental processes and protection in and around the city of Kotka and the Kymi river. The thesis falls within the methodological field of socio-political history, as the research focus is centered on the local process of establishing the nature of environmental problems and solving them. The principal assumption has been that the city of Kotka, due to its ongoing expansion, was slow to respond to environmental hazards. The Kymi river was among the most degraded bodies of water during this period. Kotka on the other hand was a major center of wood processing industry and one of Finlands major industrial ports. In the past the river and its estuary had provided ample resources for fishers. It is this contradictory use of the environment that allows one to discuss the local struggle for the correct use of the environment. Primary sources include local and city archives, environmental studies, and legal documents linked with the above. The archives of the city of Kotka and of various private associations form the core sources. Environmental studies from the research period have been dealt with as sources to the local political power struggle. Alongside with current environmental research they also provide insight into the state of the environment. Another goals has been to accumulate environmental research for a future multidisciplinary study in this area. As a final conclusion it can be said that environmental degradation was widely understood as a problem only in the 1960s. The influential role of the city of Kotka however determined the pace with which these problems were then solved.

Children’s personal exposure to air pollution in rural villages in Bhutan

Exposure assessment studies conducted in developing countries have been based on fixed-site monitoring to date. This is a major deficiency, leading to errors in estimating the actual exposures, which are a function of time spent and pollutant concentrations in different microenvironments. This study quantified school children’s daily personal exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) using real-time monitoring, as well as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NO2 using passive sampling in rural Bhutan in order to determine the factors driving the exposures. An activity diary was used to track children’s time activity patterns, and difference in mean exposure levels across sex and indoor/outdoor were investigated with ANOVA. 82 children, attending three primary schools participated in this study; S1 and S2 during the wet season and S3 during the dry season. Mean daily UFP exposure (cm-3) was 1.08 × 104 for children attending S1, 9.81 × 103 for S2, and 4.19 × 104 for S3. The mean daily NO2 exposure (µg m-3) was 4.27 for S1, 3.33 for S2 and 5.38 for S3 children. Likewise, children attending S3 also experienced higher daily exposure to a majority of the VOCs than those attending S1 and S2. Time-series of UFP personal exposures provided detailed information on identifying sources of these particles and quantifying their contributions to the total daily exposures for each microenvironment. The highest UFP exposure resulted from cooking/eating, contributing to 64% of the daily exposure, due to firewood combustion in houses using traditional mud cookstoves. The lowest UFP exposures were during the hours that children spent outdoors at school. The outcomes of this study highlight the significant contributions of lifestyle and socio-economic factors in personal exposures and have applications in environmental risk assessment and household air pollution mitigation in Bhutan.

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter.

First Report of a Toxic Nodularia spumigena (Nostocales/Cyanobacteria) Bloom in Sub-Tropical Australia. II. Bioaccumulation of Nodularin in Isolated Populations of Mullet (Mugilidae)

Fish collected after a mass mortality at an artificial lake in south-east Queensland, Australia, were examined for the presence of nodularin as the lake had earlier been affected by a Nodularia bloom. Methanol extracts of muscle, liver, peritoneal and stomach contents were analysed by HPLC and tandem mass spectrometry; histological examination was conducted on livers from captured mullet. Livers of sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) involved in the fish kill contained high concentrations of nodularin (median 43.6 mg/kg, range 40.8-47.8 mg/kg dry weight; n = 3) and the toxin was also present in muscle tissue (median 44.0 mu g/kg, range 32.3-56.8 mu g/kg dry weight). Livers of fish occupying higher trophic levels accumulated much lower concentrations. Mullet captured from the lake 10 months later were also found to have high hepatic nodularin levels. DNA sequencing of mullet specimens revealed two species inhabiting the study lake: M. cephalus and an unidentified mugilid. The two mullet species appear to differ in their exposure and/or uptake of nodularin, with M. cephalus demonstrating higher tissue concentrations. The feeding ecology of mullet would appear to explain the unusual capacity of these fish to concentrate nodularin in their livers; these findings may have public health implications for mullet fisheries and aquaculture production where toxic cyanobacteria blooms affect source waters. This report incorporates a systematic review of the literature on nodularin measured in edible fish, shellfish and crustaceans.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Design and flight testing of a bio-inspired plume tracking algorithm for unmanned serial vehicles

There is an increased interest on the use of UAVs for environmental research such as tracking bush fires, volcanic eruptions, chemical accidents or pollution sources. The aim of this paper is to describe the theory and results of a bio-inspired plume tracking algorithm. A method for generating sparse plumes in a virtual environment was also developed. Results indicated the ability of the algorithms to track plumes in 2D and 3D. The system has been tested with hardware in the loop (HIL) simulations and in flight using a CO2 gas sensor mounted to a multi-rotor UAV. The UAV is controlled by the plume tracking algorithm running on the ground control station (GCS).