Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis


Autoria(s): Hu, Wenbiao; Zhang, Wenyi; Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu
Data(s)

25/11/2014

Resumo

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Identificador

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/82772/

Publicador

Academic Press (Elsevier)

Relação

http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0013935114003399/1-s2.0-S0013935114003399-main.pdf?_tid=6bcbd814-d282-11e4-9ff1-00000aab0f6c&acdnat=1427242012_2f14b7019321f50efbcc344b133790d3

DOI:10.1016/j.envres.2014.07.033

Hu, Wenbiao, Zhang, Wenyi, Huang, Xiaodong, Clements, Archie, Mengersen, Kerrie, & Tong, Shilu (2014) Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis. Environmental Research, 136, pp. 405-412.

Direitos

Copyright 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fonte

ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS); Faculty of Health; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation; School of Mathematical Sciences; School of Public Health & Social Work

Palavras-Chave #Avian influenza; #Spatial Bayesian conditional autoregressive model #H7N9 virus;
Tipo

Journal Article