Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Public perceptions of animal experimentation across Europe

The goal of this article is to map out public perceptions of animal experimentation in 28 European countries. Postulating cross-cultural differences, this study mixes country-level variables (from the Eurostat database) and individual-level variables (from Eurobarometer Science and Technology 2010). It is shown that experimentation on animals such as mice is generally accepted in European countries, but perceptions are divided on dogs and monkeys. Between 2005 and 2010, we observe globally a change of approval on dogs and monkeys, with a significant decrease in nine countries. Multilevel analysis results show differences at country level (related to a post-industrialism model) and at individual level (related to gender, age, education, proximity and perceptions of science and the environment). These results may have consequences for public perceptions of science and we call for more cross-cultural research on press coverage of animal research and on the level of public engagement of scientists doing animal research

Changing healthcare: stakeholder perceptions of the burden of chronic disease and the value of teams, measurements and communication.

Canadian healthcare is changing. Over the course of the past decade, the Health Care in Canada Survey (HCIC) has annually measured the reactions of the public and professional stakeholders to many of these change forces. In HCIC 2008, for the first time, the public's perception of their health status and all stakeholders' views of the burden and effective management of chronic diseases were sought. Overall, Canadians perceive themselves as healthy, with 84% of adults reporting good-to-excellent health. However, good health decreased with age as the occurrence of chronic illness rose, from 12% in the age group 18-24 to 65% for the population =65 years. More than 70% of all stakeholders were strongly or somewhat supportive of the implementation of coordinated care, or disease management programs, to improve the care of patients with chronic illnesses. Concordant support was also expressed for key disease management components, including coordinated interventions to improve home, community and self-care; increased wellness promotion; and increased use of clinical measurements and feedback to all stakeholders. However, there were also important areas of non-concordance. For example, the public and doctors consistently expressed less support than other stakeholders for the value of team care, including the use of non-physician professionals to provide patient care; increased patient involvement in decision-making; and the use of electronic health records to facilitate communication. The actual participation in disease management programs averaged 34% for professionals and 25% for the public. We conclude that chronic diseases are common, age-related and burdensome in Canada. Disease management or coordinated intervention often delivered by teams is also relatively common, despite its less-than-universal acceptance by all stakeholders. Further insights are needed, particularly into the variable perceptions of the value and efficacy of team-delivered healthcare and its important components.

Librarians' perceptions on the use of electronic resources at Catalan academic libraries: results of a focus group

The aim of this paper is to expand on previous quantitative and qualitative research into the use of electronic information resources and its impact on the information behaviour of academics at Catalan universities.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Public perceptions of collectives at the outbreak of the H1N1 epidemic: Heroes, villains and victims

Lay perceptions of collectives (e.g., groups, organizations, countries) implicated in the 2009 H1N1 outbreak were studied. Collectives serve symbolic functions to help laypersons make sense of the uncertainty involved in a disease outbreak. We argue that lay representations are dramatized, featuring characters like heroes, villains and victims. In interviews conducted soon after the outbreak, 47 Swiss respondents discussed the risk posed by H1N1, its origins and effects, and protective measures. Countries were the most frequent collectives mentioned. Poor, underdeveloped countries were depicted as victims, albeit ambivalently, as they were viewed as partly responsible for their own plight. Experts (physicians, researchers) and political and health authorities were depicted as heroes. Two villains emerged: the media (viewed as fear mongering or as a puppet serving powerful interests) and private corporations (e.g., the pharmaceutical industry). Laypersons' framing of disease threat diverges substantially from official perspectives.

Perceptions de la performance et comportements de agents publics suisses dans un environnement en constante évolution

Alors que les modèles et notions de performance généralement analysés dans les recherches sont presque toujours ceux du management et des cadres dirigeants, cet article propose de s'arrêter sur la vision des employés, en l'occurrence des agents publics suisses. Il présente, à la lumière des réformes entreprises dans l'administration publique en Suisse, d'une part la conception générale qu'ont les agents publics de la performance du service public, et d'autre part leur perception de l'évolution des performances organisationnelle, individuelle, ainsi que celle en lien avec les prestations fournies aux bénéficiaires. L'analyse de la performance perçue est effectuée à travers la mise en évidence de l'existence de plusieurs mondes de référence auxquels se rapportent les agents publics lorsqu'ils parlent de leur travail. Les résultats révèlent la prégnance du monde industriel, devançant le monde civique qui, lui-même, relègue les mondes domestique et marchand respectivement en troisième et quatrième position. Un intérêt particulier est également accordé aux différents comportements, découlant des réformes du service public, qu'adoptent les agents publics, et aux liens qui pourraient exister entre ces comportements et les différents mondes de référence. Un mariage entre deux mondes, potentiellement contradictoires, semble se dessiner dans l'esprit des agents publics. Il pourrait constituer une réponse à une forme de crise identitaire, mise en avant par de nombreux spécialistes, provoquée par des injonctions contradictoires auxquelles sont soumis actuellement les agents publics.

Self perceptions as predictors for return to work 2 years after rehabilitation in orthopedic trauma inpatients.

Purpose This study aimed to identify self-perception variables which may predict return to work (RTW) in orthopedic trauma patients 2 years after rehabilitation. Methods A prospective cohort investigated 1,207 orthopedic trauma inpatients, hospitalised in rehabilitation, clinics at admission, discharge, and 2 years after discharge. Information on potential predictors was obtained from self administered questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression models were applied. Results In the final model, a higher likelihood of RTW was predicted by: better general health and lower pain at admission; health and pain improvements during hospitalisation; lower impact of event (IES-R) avoidance behaviour score; higher IES-R hyperarousal score, higher SF-36 mental score and low perceived severity of the injury. Conclusion RTW is not only predicted by perceived health, pain and severity of the accident at the beginning of a rehabilitation program, but also by the changes in pain and health perceptions observed during hospitalisation.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Pressure to change and resistance against it: consumer perceptions and acceptance of nutritionally modified foods

Selostus: Muutospaineet ja muutosvastarinta: kuluttajien suhtautuminen ravitsemuksellisesti muunnettuihin elintarvikkeisiin

The role of just world beliefs and justice perceptions in explaining undesirable attitudes and behaviors at work

Perceiving injustice is a key antecedent of a large range of undesirable employee attitudes and behaviors at work. For example, research has shown that employees who perceive their workplace as unfair are less satisfied, less committed and engage in more counterproductive behaviors. In this study, we suggest that justice motives like the belief in a just world (BJW) contribute to explaining relations between justice perceptions and undesirable behaviors. Specifically, we propose that individual differences in BJW (i.e, the belief that the world is just, where everyone is rewarded for his or her behavior) are related to work-related behaviors and attitudes by coloring perceptions of workplace fairness. We investigated our hypotheses in a survey study with 176 employees of various organizations (36% women; mean tenure 12.3 yeares). Results showed that after controlling for other influencing factors (e.g., neuroticism) BJW was negatively related to self-reported work deviant behaviors and to cynical, disillusioned attitudes toward the current job. Moreover, BJW was positively related to overall job satisfaction. Consistent with our expectations, relations of BJW with deviant behaviors and with attitudes were mediated by perceptions of interactional and procedural justice. These results suggest extending models of justice and deviance by including motives such as BJW.