Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.

Prevalence of foot disease and risk factors in general inpatient populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To systematically review studies reporting the prevalence in general adult inpatient populations of foot disease disorders (foot wounds, foot infections, collective ‘foot disease’) and risk factors (peripheral arterial disease (PAD), peripheral neuropathy (PN), foot deformity). Methods: A systematic review of studies published between 1980 and 2013 was undertaken using electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL). Keywords and synonyms relating to prevalence, inpatients, foot disease disorders and risk factors were used. Studies reporting foot disease or risk factor prevalence data in general inpatient populations were included. Included study's reference lists and citations were searched and experts consulted to identify additional relevant studies. 2 authors, blinded to each other, assessed the methodological quality of included studies. Applicable data were extracted by 1 author and checked by a second author. Prevalence proportions and SEs were calculated for all included studies. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated using random-effects models where 3 eligible studies were available. Results: Of the 4972 studies initially identified, 78 studies reporting 84 different cohorts (total 60 231 517 participants) were included. Foot disease prevalence included: foot wounds 0.01–13.5% (70 cohorts), foot infections 0.05–6.4% (7 cohorts), collective foot disease 0.2–11.9% (12 cohorts). Risk factor prevalence included: PAD 0.01–36.0% (10 cohorts), PN 0.003–2.8% (6 cohorts), foot deformity was not reported. Pooled prevalence estimates were only able to be calculated for pressure ulcer-related foot wounds 4.6% (95% CI 3.7% to 5.4%)), diabetes-related foot wounds 2.4% (1.5% to 3.4%), diabetes-related foot infections 3.4% (0.2% to 6.5%), diabetes-related foot disease 4.7% (0.3% to 9.2%). Heterogeneity was high in all pooled estimates (I2=94.2–97.8%, p<0.001). Conclusions: This review found high heterogeneity, yet suggests foot disease was present in 1 in every 20 inpatients and a major risk factor in 1 in 3 inpatients. These findings are likely an underestimate and more robust studies are required to provide more precise estimates.

Primary polyestradiol phosphate versus orchiectomy for advanced prostate cancer : Studies on the efficacy, cardiovascular complications and prognostic factors

Paikallisesti levinnyttä (T3-4 M0) ja luustoon levinnyttä (T1-4 M1) eturauhassyöpää sairastaneet potilaat satunnaistettiin kirurgiseen kastraatioon (orkiektomia) tai lääkkeelliseen kastraatioon lihaksensisäisellä polyestradiolifosfaatilla (PEP) annoksella 240 mg/kk. Verrattiin hoitojen kliinistä tehoa sekä sydän- ja verisuonikomplikaatioita (SV-komplikaatioita). Verrattiin myös hoitoa edeltäviä plasman testosteroni (T) ja estradioli (E2) pitoisuuksia T3-4 M0 ja T1-4 M1 potilaiden välillä sekä selvitettiin potilaiden yleistilan vaikutusta näihin hormonitasoihin. Lopuksi luotiin T1-4 M1 potilaille eturauhassyövän aiheuttaman kuoleman ennusteellinen riskiluokittelu kolmeen riskiryhmään käyttämällä hoitoa edeltäviä ennustetekijöitä. Kliinisessä tehossa ei orkiektomian ja PEP-hoidon välillä todettu tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Odotetusti T1-4 M1 potilaiden ennuste oli huonompi kuin T3-4 M0 potilaiden. T1-4 M1 potilailla ei ollut SV-kuolemissa hoitoryhmien välillä tilastollista eroa, mutta ei-tappavia SV-komplikaatioita oli PEP ryhmässä (5.9%) enemmän kuin orkiektomia ryhmässä (2.0%). T3-4 M0 potilailla PEP-hoitoon liittyi tilastollisesti merkitsevä SV-kuolleisuus riski orkiektomiaan verrattuna (p = 0.001). PEP ryhmässä 67% kuolemista oli akuutteja sydäninfarkteja. Tämä PEP hoitoon liittyvä sydäninfarktiriski (mukaan lukien myös ei-tappavat sydäninfarktit) oli merkitsevästi pienempi potilailla, joiden hoitoa edeltävä E2 taso oli vähintään 93 pmol/l (p = 0.022). E2 taso oli merkitsevästi matalampi T1-4 M1 potilailla (74.7 pmol/l) kuin T3-4 M0 potilailla (87.9 pmol/l), mutta vastaavaa eroa ei ollut T tasoissa. Sekä T3-4 M0 että T1-4 M1 potilailla yleistilan lasku osittain selitti yksilöllisen T ja E2 tasojen laskun. Eturauhassyövän aiheuttaman kuoleman riskiryhmäluokittelu (Rg) kolmeen ryhmään luotiin käyttämällä alkalista fosfataasia (AFOS), prostata spesifistä antigeenia (PSA), laskoa (La) ja potilaan ikää. Yksi riskipiste annettiin, jos AFOS > 180 U/l (tällä hetkellä käytössä olevalla menetelmällä AFOS > 83 U/l), PSA > 35 µg/l, La > 80 mm/h ja ikä < 60 vuotta. Lopuksi pisteet laskettiin yhteen. Muodostettiin seuraavat ryhmät: Rg-a (0 -1 riskipistettä), Rg-b (2 riskipistettä) ja Rg-c (3 – 4 riskipistettä). Eturauhassyövän aiheuttama kuoleman riski lisääntyi merkitsevästi siirryttäessä riskiryhmästä seuraavaan (p < 0.001). Rg-luokittelu oli kliinisesti käytännöllinen ja hyvä havaitsemaan huonon ennusteen potilaat.

Primary Fallopian tube carcinoma:occurrence, risk and prognostic factors

The aim of the study was to clarify the occurrence, and etiological and prognostic factors of primary fallopian tube carcinoma (PFTC). We studied the sociodemographic determinants of the incidence of PFTC in Finland and the role of chlamydial infections and human papillomavirus infections as risk factors for PFTC. Serum tumor markers were studied as prognostic factors for PFTC. We also evaluated selected reproductive factors (parity, sterilization and hysterectomy) as risk or protective factors of PFTC. The risks of second primary cancers after PFTC were also studied. The age-adjusted incidence of PFTC in Finland increased to 5.4 / 1,000,000 in 1993 97. The incidence rate was higher in the cities, but the relative rise was higher in rural areas. Women in the two highest social classes showed a 1.8 fold incidence compared with those in the lowest. Women in agriculture and those not working outside the home showed only half the PFTC incidence of those in higher socioeconomic occupations. Pretreatment serum concentrations of hCGβ, CA125 and TATI were evaluated as prognostic markers for PFTC. Elevated hCGβ values (above the 75th percentile, 3.5 pmol/L; OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.22 5.09), stage and histology were strong independent prognostic factors for PFTC. The effects of parity, sterilization and hysterectomy on the risk of PFTC were studied in a case control-study with 573 PFTC cases from the Finnish Cancer Registry. In multivariate analysis parity was the only significant protective factor as regards PFTC, with increasing protection associated with increasing number of deliveries. In univariate analysis sterilization gave borderline protection against PFTC and the protective effect increased with time since the operation. In multivariate analysis the protection did not reach statistical significance. Chlamydial and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections were studied in two separate seroepidemiological case-control studies with 78 PFTC patients. The incidence of women with positive HPV or chlamydial serology was the same in PFTC patients and in the control group and was not found to be a risk factor for PFTC. Finally, the possible risk of a second primary cancer after diagnosis and treatment of PFTC in a cohort of 2084 cases from 13 cancer registries followed for second primary cancers within the period 1943 2000 was studied. In PFTC patients, second primary cancers were 36% more common than expected (SIR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13 1.63). In conclusion, the incidence of PFTC has increased in Finland, especially in higher social classes and among those in certain occupations. Elevated serum hCGβ reflect a worsened prognosis. Parity is a clear protective factor, as is previous sterilization. After PFTC there is a risk of second primary cancers, especially colorectal, breast, lung and bladder cancers and non-lymphoid leukemia. The excess of colorectal and breast cancers after PFTC may indicate common effects of earlier treatments, or they could reflect common effects of lifestyle or genetic, immunological or environmental background.

The effects of abiotic and biotic factors on somatic embryogenesis and seedlings of Pinus sylvestris (L.)

Somatic embryogenesis (SE) is an asexual form of plant propagation that occurs in nature and mimics many of the events of sexual reproduction. Pinus sylvestris (L.) is an important source of timber in Northern Eurasia but it is recalcitrant to somatic embryogenesis. Several factors important for the success of the P. sylvestris embryogenic cultures have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we examined the effects of parental genotypes on the SE in P. sylvestris, the involvement of the gaseous plant growth regulator, ethylene in SE, and also biotic effects on somatic embryos as well as on seedlings. We tested parental effects on immature embryo initiation for different media, storage periods, and on the maturation process. Maternal effects were found to be crucial for SE in the absence of paternal effects. No maternal-paternal interaction was observed at any stage of somatic embryo production. Additionally the role of ethylene at different developmental stages of SE was investigated. Two ACC synthase genes, PsACS1 and PsACS2, were isolated and characterized. PsACS1 was expressed during the proliferation stage in all tested genotypes, whereas PsACS2 was only expressed in somatic embryos of each genotype. Ethylene production in embryos at stage 3 was significantly higher than the other stages. In a parallel study, the response of somatic embryos to fungal elicitors was investigated. Three fungi, a mutualistic ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungus (Suillus bovinus), a weak Scots pine pathogen (Heterobasidion parviporum) and a strong pathogen (H. annosum) were used. The gene expression patterns for embryos exposed to the H. parviporum elicitor were found to be similar to that documented for S. bovinus among the tested genes. By contrast somatic embryos exposed to the H. annosum elicitor had a different pattern of regulation which was marked by a delayed response, and in some cases death of the embryos. Furthermore, interaction without direct contact between P. sylvestris seedlings and microbes (mutualistic and pathogenic fungus, cyanobacterium) were investigated. Several novel genes expressed in seedlings treated with ECM fungus were isolated which suggested that physical contact is not necessary for elicitation of host responses. The results suggest that somatic embryos and seedlings of P. sylvestris are genetically well equipped to respond to fungal elicitor/exudates and could serve as a suitable model for reproducible molecular studies in conifer tree patho- and symbiotic systems.

Understanding Customer Loyalty and Disloyalty The Effect of Loyalty-Supporting and -Repressing Factors (first edition sold out, 'print on demand' 60 €)

Customer loyalty has been a central topic of both marketing theory and practice for several decades. Customer disloyalty, or relationship ending, has received much less attention. Despite the close relation between customer loyalty and disloyalty, they have rarely been addressed in the same study. The thesis bridges this gap by focusing on both loyal and disloyal customers and the factors characterising them. Based on a qualitative study of loyal and disloyal bank customers in the Finnish retail banking market, both factors that are common to the groups and factors that differentiate between them are identified. A conceptual framework of factors that affect customer loyalty or disloyalty is developed and used to analyse the empirical data. According to the framework, customers’ loyalty status (behavioural and attitudinal loyalty) is influenced by positive, loyalty-supporting, and negative, loyalty-repressing factors. Loyalty-supporting factors either promote customer dedication, making the customer want to remain loyal, or act as constraints, hindering the customer from switching. Among the loyalty-repressing factors it is especially important to identify those that act as triggers of disloyal behaviour, making customers switch service providers. The framework further suggests that by identifying the sources of loyalty-supporting and -repressing factors (the environment, the provider, the customer, the provider-customer interaction, or the core service) one can determine which factors are within the control of the service provider. Attitudinal loyalty is approached through a customer’s “feeling of loyalty”, as described by customers both orally and graphically. By combining the graphs with behavioural loyalty, seven customer groups are identified: Stable Loyals, Rescued Loyals, Loyals at Risk, Positive Disloyals, Healing Disloyals, Fading Disloyals, and Abrupt Disloyals. The framework and models of the thesis can be used to analyse factors that affect customer loyalty and disloyalty in different service contexts. Since the empirical study was carried out in a retail bank setting, the thesis has managerial relevance especially for banks. Christina Nordman is associated with CERS, Center for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at the Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration. The doctoral thesis is part of the Göran Collert Research Project in Customer Relationships and Retail Banking and has been funded by The Göran Collert Foundation.

Merkel cell carcinoma : Epidemiological study with special reference to polyomavirus and vascular factors in pathogenesis

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare cutaneous malignancy that occurs predominantly on sun exposed skin areas. A new polyomavirus (MCPyV) was identified in MCC tumor tissues in 2008 suggesting that a viral infection might be an etiological factor. A typical MCC is a rapidly growing painless purple nodule. In its early stage it can be misjudged by its appearance as a cyst or abscess. Recurrences are common and approximately half of the patients will develop lymph node metastases and third of the patents will have distant metastases. It affects mostly elderly persons at an average age of 70 at the time of diagnosis. MCC was first described in 1972 and the first MCC patient in Finland was identified in 1983. MCC has been poorly recognized, but increased awareness and better diagnostic accuracy has increased the incidence since the early years. In this study, all cases with a notation of MCC during 1979 2008 were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Based on this data, the incidence is 0.11 for men and 0.12 for women. It is similar than that of other Nordic countries, but lower than in the USA. For clinical series, the files of patients diagnosed with MCC during 1983 2004 were reviewed, and the tissue samples were re-evaluated, if available (n=181). Third of the patients were men, and the most common site of the primary tumor was the head and neck (53%). The majority of the patients (86%) presented with a clinically node-negative (Stage I or II) disease, but the disease recurred in 38% of them. The treatment schemes were heterogeneous. No additional benefit from a wide margin (≥2 cm) was found compared to a margin of 0.1-1.9 cm, but intralesional excision was more often associated with local recurrence. None of the patients with Stage I-II disease who had received postoperative radiotherapy had local recurrence during the follow-up period. The 5-year relative survival ratio for Stage I disease was 68%, for Stage II 67%, for Stage III 16%, and for Stage IV 0%. The relative excess risk of death was significantly lower among women than among men. Some of these tissue samples were further analyzed for vascular invasion (n=126) by immunohistochemistry using vascular endothelial markers CD-31 and D2-40. Vascular invasion was seen in 93% of the samples and it was observed already in very small, <5mm tumors. The tissue samples were also analyzed for the presence of MCPyV by using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantitative PCR. MCPyV DNA was present in 80% of 114 samples studied. The patients with virus-positive tumors had better overall survival than patients with virus-negative tumors. Immunohistochemical analyses were performed for the expression of VEGFR-2 (n=21) and endostatin (n=19), but they had no prognostic value. Our results support the concept of treating MCC with margin-negative excision and radiotherapy to the tumor bed to reduce local recurrence. The finding of a high frequency of lymphovascular invasion reduces its value as a prognostic factor, but emphasizes the role of sentinel node biopsy even in very small primary MCC.

Plant communities of field margins : the effects of management and environmental factors on species composition and diversity

Agri-environmental schemes have so far resulted in only minor positive implications for the biodiversity of agricultural environments, in contrast to what has been expected. Land-use intensification has decreased landscape heterogeneity and the amount of semi-natural habitats. Field margins are uncultivated areas of permanent vegetation located adjacent to fields. Since the number of these habitats is high, investing in their quality may result in more diverse agricultural landscapes. Field margins can be considered as multifunctional habitats providing agronomic, environmental and wildlife services. This thesis aimed at examining the plant communities of different types of field margin habitats and the factors affecting their species diversity and composition. The importance of edaphic, spatial and management factors was studied on regional, landscape and habitat scales. Vegetation surveys were conducted on regional and landscape scales and a field experiment on cutting management was conducted on a habitat scale. In field margin plant communities, species appeared to be indicators of high or intermediate soil fertility and moist soil conditions. The plant species diversity found was rather low, compared with most species-rich agricultural habitats in Finland, such as dry meadows. Among regions, land-use history, main production line, natural species and human induced distribution, climate and edaphic factors were elements inducing differences in species composition. The lowest regional species diversity of field margins was related to intensive and long-term cereal production. Management by cutting and removal or grazing had a positive effect on plant species diversity. The positive effect of cutting and removal on species richness was also dependent on the adjacent source of colonizing species. Therefore, in species-poor habitats and landscapes, establishment of margins with diverse seed mixtures can be recommended for enhancing the development of species richness. However, seed mixtures should include only native species preferably local origin. Management by cutting once a year for 5 years did not result in a decline in dominance of a harmful weed species, Elymus repens, showing that E. repens probably needs cutting more frequently than once per year. Agri-environmental schemes should include long-term contracts with farmers for the establishment, and management by cutting and removal or grazing, of field margins that are several metres wide. In such schemes, the timing and frequency of management should be planned so as not to harm other taxa, such as the insects and birds that are dependent on these habitats. All accidental herbicide drifts to field margins should be avoided when spraying the cultivated area to minimize the negative effects of sprayings on vegetation. The harmful effects of herbicides can be avoided by organic farming methods.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (< 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (PIENEMPI KUIN 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.