Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table has n rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can be seen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals are identified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclidean elements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the table of probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances. Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which is the nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonal projection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in a row explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questions three orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independent two-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. An important result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (row and column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independent table, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals. These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models. Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition, orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure, contingency table

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Regularization of descriptor systems by output feedback

Conditions are given under which a descriptor, or generalized state-space system can be regularized by output feedback. It is shown that under these conditions, proportional and derivative output feedback controls can be constructed such that the closed-loop system is regular and has index at most one. This property ensures the solvability of the resulting system of dynamic-algebraic equations. A reduced form is given that allows the system properties as well as the feedback to be determined. The construction procedures used to establish the theory are based only on orthogonal matrix decompositions and can therefore be implemented in a numerically stable way.

Regularization of Descriptor Systems by Derivative and Proportional State Feedback

For linear multivariable time-invariant continuous or discrete-time singular systems it is customary to use a proportional feedback control in order to achieve a desired closed loop behaviour. Derivative feedback is rarely considered. This paper examines how derivative feedback in descriptor systems can be used to alter the structure of the system pencil under various controllability conditions. It is shown that derivative and proportional feedback controls can be constructed such that the closed loop system has a given form and is also regular and has index at most 1. This property ensures the solvability of the resulting system of dynamic-algebraic equations. The construction procedures used to establish the theory are based only on orthogonal matrix decompositions and can therefore be implemented in a numerically stable way. The problem of pole placement with derivative feedback alone and in combination with proportional state feedback is also investigated. A computational algorithm for improving the “conditioning” of the regularized closed loop system is derived.

Can adherence to dietary guidelines address excess caloric intake? An empirical assessment for the UK

The facilitation of healthier dietary choices by consumers is a key element of government strategies to combat the rising incidence of obesity in developed and developing countries. Public health campaigns to promote healthier eating often target compliance with recommended dietary guidelines for consumption of individual nutrients such as fats and added sugars. This paper examines the association between improved compliance with dietary guidelines for individual nutrients and excess calorie intake, the most proximate determinant of obesity risk. We apply quantile regressions and counterfactual decompositions to cross-sectional data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2000-01) to assess how excess calorie consumption patterns in the UK are likely to change with improved compliance with dietary guidelines. We find that the effects of compliance vary significantly across different quantiles of calorie consumption. Our results show that compliance with dietary guidelines for individual nutrients, even if successfully achieved, is likely to be associated with only modest shifts in excess calorie consumption patterns. Consequently, public health campaigns that target compliance with dietary guidelines for specific nutrients in isolation are unlikely to have a significant effect on the obesity risk faced by the population.

Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

Building binary-tree-based multiclass classifiers using separability measures

Various popular machine learning techniques, like support vector machines, are originally conceived for the solution of two-class (binary) classification problems. However, a large number of real problems present more than two classes. A common approach to generalize binary learning techniques to solve problems with more than two classes, also known as multiclass classification problems, consists of hierarchically decomposing the multiclass problem into multiple binary sub-problems, whose outputs are combined to define the predicted class. This strategy results in a tree of binary classifiers, where each internal node corresponds to a binary classifier distinguishing two groups of classes and the leaf nodes correspond to the problem classes. This paper investigates how measures of the separability between classes can be employed in the construction of binary-tree-based multiclass classifiers, adapting the decompositions performed to each particular multiclass problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary tuning of SVM parameter values in multiclass problems

Support vector machines (SVMs) were originally formulated for the solution of binary classification problems. In multiclass problems, a decomposition approach is often employed, in which the multiclass problem is divided into multiple binary subproblems, whose results are combined. Generally, the performance of SVM classifiers is affected by the selection of values for their parameters. This paper investigates the use of genetic algorithms (GAs) to tune the parameters of the binary SVMs in common multiclass decompositions. The developed GA may search for a set of parameter values common to all binary classifiers or for differentiated values for each binary classifier. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the variations of the Betti numbers of regular levels of Morse flows

We generalize results in Cruz and de Rezende (1999) [7] by completely describing how the Beth numbers of the boundary of an orientable manifold vary after attaching a handle, when the homology coefficients are in Z, Q, R or Z/pZ with p prime. First we apply this result to the Conley index theory of Lyapunov graphs. Next we consider the Ogasa invariant associated with handle decompositions of manifolds. We make use of the above results in order to obtain upper bounds for the Ogasa invariant of product manifolds. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real map germs and higher open book structures

The paper focusses on the existence of higher open book structures defined by real map germs psi : (R(m), 0) -> (R(p), 0) such that Sing psi boolean AND psi(-1)(0) subset of {0}. A general existence criterion is proved, with view to weighted-homogeneous maps.

Coherent and semiclassical states in a magnetic field in the presence of the Aharonov-Bohm solenoid

A new approach to constructing coherent states (CS) and semiclassical states (SS) in a magnetic-solenoid field is proposed. The main idea is based on the fact that the AB solenoid breaks the translational symmetry in the xy-plane; this has a topological effect such that there appear two types of trajectories which embrace and do not embrace the solenoid. Due to this fact, one has to construct two different kinds of CS/SS which correspond to such trajectories in the semiclassical limit. Following this idea, we construct CS in two steps, first the instantaneous CS (ICS) and then the time-dependent CS/SS as an evolution of the ICS. The construction is realized for nonrelativistic and relativistic spinning particles both in (2 + 1) and (3 + 1) dimensions and gives a non-trivial example of SS/CS for systems with a nonquadratic Hamiltonian. It is stressed that CS depending on their parameters (quantum numbers) describe both pure quantum and semiclassical states. An analysis is represented that classifies parameters of the CS in such respect. Such a classification is used for the semiclassical decompositions of various physical quantities.

On a product formula for the Conley-Zelmder index of symplectic paths and its applications

Using invariance by fixed-endpoints homotopies and a generalized notion of symplectic Cayley transform, we prove a product formula for the Conley-Zehnder index of continuous paths with arbitrary endpoints in the symplectic group. We discuss two applications of the formula, to the metaplectic group and to periodic solutions of Hamiltonian systems.

Some classes of semisimple group (and loop) algebras over finite fields

We determine the structure of the semisimple group algebra of certain groups over the rationals and over those finite fields where the Wedderburn decompositions have the least number of simple components We apply our work to obtain similar information about the loop algebras of mdecomposable RA loops and to produce negative answers to the isomorphism problem over various fields (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

On a formula for the spectral flow and its applications

We consider a continuous path of bounded symmetric Fredholm bilinear forms with arbitrary endpoints on a real Hilbert space, and we prove a formula that gives the spectral flow of the path in terms of the spectral flow of the restriction to a finite codimensional closed subspace. We also discuss the case of restrictions to a continuous path of finite codimensional closed subspaces. As an application of the formula, we introduce the notion of spectral flow for a periodic semi-Riemannian geodesic, and we compute its value in terms of the Maslov index. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Efficient Multi-Granularity Service Composition

Dynamic composition of services provides the ability to build complex distributed applications at run time by combining existing services, thus coping with a large variety of complex requirements that cannot be met by individual services alone. However, with the increasing amount of available services that differ in granularity (amount of functionality provided) and qualities, selecting the best combination of services becomes very complex. In response, this paper addresses the challenges of service selection, and makes a twofold contribution. First, a rich representation of compositional planning knowledge is provided, allowing the expression of multiple decompositions of tasks at arbitrary levels of granularity. Second, two distinct search space reduction techniques are introduced, the application of which, prior to performing service selection, results in significant improvement in selection performance in terms of execution time, which is demonstrated via experimental results.