Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Genetic algorithm inversion of the average 1D crustal structure using local and regional earthquakes

Knowing the best 1D model of the crustal and upper mantle structure is useful not only for routine hypocenter determination, but also for linearized joint inversions of hypocenters and 3D crustal structure, where a good choice of the initial model can be very important. Here, we tested the combination of a simple GA inversion with the widely used HYPO71 program to find the best three-layer model (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) by minimizing the overall P- and S-arrival residuals, using local and regional earthquakes in two areas of the Brazilian shield. Results from the Tocantins Province (Central Brazil) and the southern border of the Sao Francisco craton (SE Brazil) indicated an average crustal thickness of 38 and 43 km, respectively, consistent with previous estimates from receiver functions and seismic refraction lines. The GA + HYPO71 inversion produced correct Vp/Vs ratios (1.73 and 1.71, respectively), as expected from Wadati diagrams. Tests with synthetic data showed that the method is robust for the crustal thickness, Pn velocity, and Vp/Vs ratio when using events with distance up to about 400 km, despite the small number of events available (7 and 22, respectively). The velocities of the upper and lower crusts, however, are less well constrained. Interestingly, in the Tocantins Province, the GA + HYPO71 inversion showed a secondary solution (local minimum) for the average crustal thickness, besides the global minimum solution, which was caused by the existence of two distinct domains in the Central Brazil with very different crustal thicknesses. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DAMPED WAVE EQUATIONS WITH FAST GROWING DISSIPATIVE NONLINEARITIES

Let a > 0, Omega subset of R(N) be a bounded smooth domain and - A denotes the Laplace operator with Dirichlet boundary condition in L(2)(Omega). We study the damped wave problem {u(tt) + au(t) + Au - f(u), t > 0, u(0) = u(0) is an element of H(0)(1)(Omega), u(t)(0) = v(0) is an element of L(2)(Omega), where f : R -> R is a continuously differentiable function satisfying the growth condition vertical bar f(s) - f (t)vertical bar <= C vertical bar s - t vertical bar(1 + vertical bar s vertical bar(rho-1) + vertical bar t vertical bar(rho-1)), 1 < rho < (N - 2)/(N + 2), (N >= 3), and the dissipativeness condition limsup(vertical bar s vertical bar ->infinity) s/f(s) < lambda(1) with lambda(1) being the first eigenvalue of A. We construct the global weak solutions of this problem as the limits as eta -> 0(+) of the solutions of wave equations involving the strong damping term 2 eta A(1/2)u with eta > 0. We define a subclass LS subset of C ([0, infinity), L(2)(Omega) x H(-1)(Omega)) boolean AND L(infinity)([0, infinity), H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega)) of the `limit` solutions such that through each initial condition from H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) passes at least one solution of the class LS. We show that the class LS has bounded dissipativeness property in H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) and we construct a closed bounded invariant subset A of H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega), which is weakly compact in H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) and compact in H({I})(s)(Omega) x H(s-1)(Omega), s is an element of [0, 1). Furthermore A attracts bounded subsets of H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) in H({I})(s)(Omega) x H(s-1)(Omega), for each s is an element of [0, 1). For N = 3, 4, 5 we also prove a local uniqueness result for the case of smooth initial data.

Numerical prediction of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic extrudate swell using differential and algebraic models

This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

Heteroscedastic controlled calibration model applied to analytical chemistry

In chemical analyses performed by laboratories, one faces the problem of determining the concentration of a chemical element in a sample. In practice, one deals with the problem using the so-called linear calibration model, which considers that the errors associated with the independent variables are negligible compared with the former variable. In this work, a new linear calibration model is proposed assuming that the independent variables are subject to heteroscedastic measurement errors. A simulation study is carried out in order to verify some properties of the estimators derived for the new model and it is also considered the usual calibration model to compare it with the new approach. Three applications are considered to verify the performance of the new approach. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Likelihood estimate of treatment effects under selection bias

We consider methods for estimating causal effects of treatment in the situation where the individuals in the treatment and the control group are self selected, i.e., the selection mechanism is not randomized. In this case, simple comparison of treated and control outcomes will not generally yield valid estimates of casual effects. The propensity score method is frequently used for the evaluation of treatment effect. However, this method is based onsome strong assumptions, which are not directly testable. In this paper, we present an alternative modeling approachto draw causal inference by using share random-effect model and the computational algorithm to draw likelihood based inference with such a model. With small numerical studies and a real data analysis, we show that our approach gives not only more efficient estimates but it is also less sensitive to model misspecifications, which we consider, than the existing methods.

Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Portuguese version of the patient-generated subjective global assessment

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nonmesonic weak decay spectra of He-4(Lambda)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação de modelo matemático para estimar a radiação solar incidente sobre superfícies com diferentes exposições e declividades

Este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar modelo matemático para estimar a radiação solar global diária sobre superfícies com diferentes exposições e declividades, no período de março de 2002 a março de 2003. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida em uma estrutura denominada Bacia Hidrográfica Experimental do Departamento de Engenharia Rural da UNESP, Câmpus de Jaboticabal - SP. Nessa estrutura, foram utilizadas superfícies caracterizadas como H, 10N, 10S, 20N, 20S, 10E, 10W, 20E e 20W. O sensor utilizado para medir a radiação solar global incidente nas superfícies estudadas foi um piranômetro da marca Kipp & Zonnen, modelo CM3. Para calcular a radiação solar incidente nas superfícies estudadas, foi utilizado o modelo de Kondratyev. As análises dos resultados foram feitas para o período diário, utilizando-se de análise de regressão e considerando o modelo linear (y = ax + b), na qual a variável dependente foi a radiação global medida (K¯M) e a radiação global calculada (K¯C) foi a variável independente. Os resultados deste estudo mostram que o modelo apresentou bons resultados para estimar a radiação nas superfícies H, 10N, 10S, 10E, 10W, 20E e 20W. Utilizando-se de dados de dias com céu límpido, foram obtidos os seguintes resultados: no inverno, o modelo foi preciso para estimar a radiação solar na superfície 20N, e apresentou resultados aceitáveis para estimar a radiação solar na superfície 20S.

Analysis of heuristic algorithms for the transportation model in static and multistage planning in network expansion systems

The usefulness of the application of heuristic algorithms in the transportation model, first proposed by Garver, is analysed in relation to planning for the expansion of transmission systems. The formulation of the mathematical model and the solution techniques proposed in the specialised literature are analysed in detail. Starting with the constructive heuristic algorithm proposed by Garver, an extension is made to the problem of multistage planning for transmission systems. The quality of the solutions found by heuristic algorithms for the transportation model is analysed, as are applications in problems of planning transmission systems.

Factors that cause genotype by environment interaction and use of a multiple-trait herd-cluster model for milk yield of Holstein cattle from Brazil and Colombia

Descriptive herd variables (DVHE) were used to explain genotype by environment interactions (G x E) for milk yield (MY) in Brazilian and Colombian production environments and to develop a herd-cluster model to estimate covariance components and genetic parameters for each herd environment group. Data consisted of 180,522 lactation records of 94,558 Holstein cows from 937 Brazilian and 400 Colombian herds. Herds in both countries were jointly grouped in thirds according to 8 DVHE: production level, phenotypic variability, age at first calving, calving interval, percentage of imported semen, lactation length, and herd size. For each DVHE, REML bivariate animal model analyses were used to estimate genetic correlations for MY between upper and lower thirds of the data. Based on estimates of genetic correlations, weights were assigned to each DVHE to group herds in a cluster analysis using the FASTCLUS procedure in SAS. Three clusters were defined, and genetic and residual variance components were heterogeneous among herd clusters. Estimates of heritability in clusters 1 and 3 were 0.28 and 0.29, respectively, but the estimate was larger (0.39) in Cluster 2. The genetic correlations of MY from different clusters ranged from 0.89 to 0.97. The herd-cluster model based on DVHE properly takes into account G x E by grouping similar environments accordingly and seems to be an alternative to simply considering country borders to distinguish between environments.

Development of sustainable precision farming systems for swine: Estimating realtime individual amino acid requirements in growing-finishing pigs

The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a mathematical model used to estimate the daily amino acid requirements of individual growing-finishing pigs. The model includes empirical and mechanistic model components. The empirical component estimates daily feed intake (DFI), BW, and daily gain (DG) based on individual pig information collected in real time. Based on DFI, BW, and DG estimates, the mechanistic component uses classic factorial equations to estimate the optimal concentration of amino acids that must be offered to each pig to meet its requirements. The model was evaluated with data from a study that investigated the effect of feeding pigs with a 3-phase or daily multiphase system. The DFI and BW values measured in this study were compared with those estimated by the empirical component of the model. The coherence of the values estimated by the mechanistic component was evaluated by analyzing if it followed a normal pattern of requirements. Lastly, the proposed model was evaluated by comparing its estimates with those generated by the existing growth model (InraPorc). The precision of the proposed model and InraPorc in estimating DFI and BW was evaluated through the mean absolute error. The empirical component results indicated that the DFI and BW trajectories of individual pigs fed ad libitum could be predicted 1 d (DFI) or 7 d (BW) ahead with the average mean absolute error of 12.45 and 1.85%, respectively. The average mean absolute error obtained with the InraPorc for the average individual of the population was 14.72% for DFI and 5.38% for BW. Major differences were observed when estimates from InraPorc were compared with individual observations. The proposed model, however, was effective in tracking the change in DFI and BW for each individual pig. The mechanistic model component estimated the optimal standardized ileal digestible Lys to NE ratio with reasonable between animal (average CV = 7%) and overtime (average CV = 14%) variation. Thus, the amino acid requirements estimated by model are animal- and time-dependent and follow, in real time, the individual DFI and BW growth patterns. The proposed model can follow the average feed intake and feed weight trajectory of each individual pig in real time with good accuracy. Based on these trajectories and using classical factorial equations, the model makes it possible to estimate dynamically the AA requirements of each animal, taking into account the intake and growth changes of the animal. © 2012 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.