O Processo de gestão de risco nas organizações

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes

Research on using the decision tree method in order to select the best alternative for the pharmacies supply

Introduction / Aims: Adopting the important decisions represents a specific task of the manager. An efficient manager takes these decisions during a sistematic process with well-defined elements, each with a precise order. In the pharmaceutical practice and business, in the supply process of the pharmacies, there are situations when the medicine distributors offer a certain discount, but require payment in a shorter period of time. In these cases, the analysis of the offer can be made with the help of the decision tree method, which permits identifying the decision offering the best possible result in a given situation. The aims of the research have been the analysis of the product offers of many different suppliers and the establishing of the most advantageous ways of pharmacy supplying. Material / Methods: There have been studied the general product offers of the following medical stores: A&G Med, Farmanord, Farmexim, Mediplus, Montero and Relad. In the case of medicine offers including a discount, the decision tree method has been applied in order to select the most advantageous offers. The Decision Tree is a management method used in taking the right decisions and it is generally used when one needs to evaluate the decisions that involve a series of stages. The tree diagram is used in order to look for the most efficient means to attain a specific goal. The decision trees are the most probabilistic methods, useful when adopting risk taking decisions. Results: The results of the analysis on the tree diagrams have indicated the fact that purchasing medicines with discount (1%, 10%, 15%) and payment in a shorter time interval (120 days) is more profitable than purchasing without a discount and payment in a longer time interval (160 days). Discussion / Conclusion: Depending on the results of the tree diagram analysis, the pharmacies would purchase from the selected suppliers. The research has shown that the decision tree method represents a valuable work instrument in choosing the best ways for supplying pharmacies and it is very useful to the specialists from the pharmaceutical field, pharmaceutical management, to medicine suppliers, pharmacy practitioners from the community pharmacies and especially to pharmacy managers, chief – pharmacists.

Young people's blood alcohol concentration and the alcohol consumption city law, Brazil

The paper assesses blood alcohol concentration and risk behaviors for traffic accidents before and after the implementation of a law which prohibits the use of alcoholic beverages on city gas stations. In Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, young people go out at night and drive to gas station convenience stores to buy alcoholic beverages which are consumed on the premises of parking lots in gas stations. Data were obtained from self-administered questionnaires and breath analyzers in two cross-sectional collections with purposive samples of youngsters in May and July 2006 (n=62, and n=50, respectively). There were no significant differences between the groups before and after the city law was passed. Blood alcohol concentration greater than 0.06% was found in 35.5% of pre-law group and 40% of post-law group (p=0.62). Results point out heavy alcohol use in both groups, which did not change after the law was passed.

Impactos do projecto solvência II nos sistemas de governance das seguradoras portuguesas

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

A divulgação do risco nas demonstrações financeiras : uma análise ao anexo das sociedades não financeiras portuguesas

Mestrado em Auditoria

Orientação empreendedora das PME angolanas

O objetivo fundamental deste estudo é analisar a orientação empreendedora das micro, pequenas e médias empresas (MPME) no município de Cazengo, província do Kwanza Norte, em Angola. Para o desenvolvimento deste estudo utilizamos a abordagem quantitativa, combinando a análise documental com a estatística, tendo os dados sido recolhidos através um inquérito por questionário aplicado às MPME sediadas no município referido. O estudo revelou que as empresas possuem razoável orientação empreendedora, apresentando resultados positivos ao nível da inovação, onde a valorização da I&D, liderança tecnológica e inovação é moderada, e da proatividade, em que as empresas iniciam na mesma proporção ações por elas levadas a cabo e ações iniciadas pela concorrência, e negativos ao nível da assunção do risco, em que as empresas têm uma preferência por projetos de baixo risco, com rendibilidades normais e certas.

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Board independence and innovation

Legislation introduced in the U.S. in 2002/2003 significantly changed board composition of public firms by imposing a 50% independent directors’ ratio. Research on the effect of independent directors is not consensual, implying that this exogenous shock is a unique opportunity to study their importance. This study answers the question of whether or not independent directors can effectively mitigate agency conflicts between shareholders and the management, having a positive impact on the choice of successful R&D projects. We find that an increase of board independence has a positive impact on patent counts. Hence, the results support that independent directors truly spur innovation and risk taking.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

The flow-performance relationship around the world

We use a new dataset to study how mutual fund flows depend on past performance across 28 countries. We show that there are marked differences in the flow-performance relationship across countries, suggesting that US findings concerning its shape do not apply universally. We find that mutual fund investors sell losers more and buy winners less in more developed countries. This is because investors in more developed countries are more sophisticated and face lower costs of participating in the mutual fund industry. Higher country-level convexity is positively associated with higher levels of risk taking by fund managers.

Relação entre o desenvolvimento motor das crianças, quanto ao desempenho motor no controlo de objetos e as suas caraterísticas empreendedoras

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Educação Física nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário

Taxation of banks: a theoretical framework

The goal of this paper is to develop a model of financial intermediation analyze the impact of various forms of taxation. The model considers in a unified framework various functions of banks: monitoring, transaction services and asset transformation. Particular attention is devoted to conditions for separability between deposits and loans. The analysis focuses on: (i) competition between banks and alternative financial arrangements (investment funds and organized security markets), (ii) regulation, and (iii) bank's monopoly power and risk taking behavior.

Consequences of smoking for body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance

Our aim was to critically evaluate the relations among smoking, body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance as reported in the literature. In the short term, nicotine increases energy expenditure and could reduce appetite, which may explain why smokers tend to have lower body weight than do nonsmokers and why smoking cessation is frequently followed by weight gain. In contrast, heavy smokers tend to have greater body weight than do light smokers or nonsmokers, which likely reflects a clustering of risky behaviors (eg, low degree of physical activity, poor diet, and smoking) that is conducive to weight gain. Other factors, such as weight cycling, could also be involved. In addition, smoking increases insulin resistance and is associated with central fat accumulation. As a result, smoking increases the risk of metabolic syndrome and diabetes, and these factors increase risk of cardiovascular disease. In the context of the worldwide obesity epidemic and a high prevalence of smoking, the greater risk of (central) obesity and insulin resistance among smokers is a matter of major concern

Déficits y sesgos neurocognitivos y afectivos en la toma de decisiones de jugadores patológios y otros trastornos

Los déficits y sesgos tanto cognitivos como afectivos han sido fuente creciente de interés en el ámbito de la Neurociéncia de los Trastornos Mentales. En este proyecto, que se inicia en 2004 y finaliza a finales de 2008, se han estudiado los siguientes Trastornos Mentales: Juego Patológico (JP), Trastornos de la Conducta Alimentaria (TCA) y Trastornos Depresivos. En esta memoria nos centraremos en resumir parte de los resultados obtenidos en un estudio sobre JP y toma de decisiones (articulo en revisión y pendiente de aceptación) y otro de funcionamiento ejecutivo en JP y Bulimia Nerviosa (BN) (artículo en prensa). Resumiento el primer estudio los JP (N=32) muestran un proceso de toma de decisiones sesgado por la búsqueda de recompensa en forma de elevada toma de riesgos en comparación con Controles Sanos (CS). También se observan déficits en flexibilidad cognitiva pero no en control inhibitorio entre JP y CS. Los resultados descartan miopía conductual para lo toma de decisiones en JP, pero apuntan a un sesgo cognitivo-afectivo, en el que el control de los impulsos jugaría un papel relevante, en forma de ilusión de control, para los procesos de toma de decisiones con recompensa inmediata pero con castigo diferido, medidos por una prueba de toma de decisiones (IGT ABCD). En el segundo estudio, basándose en las vulnerabilidadades compartidas descritas entre JP y BN se comparó el funcionamiento ejecutivo de mujeres con JP y BN. Tras la administración del WCST y Stroop y ajustando el análisis por edad y educación, las JP mostraron mayor afectación, en concreto mayor porcentaje de errores perservaritvos, menor nivel de respuestas conceptuales y mayor número de ensayos administrados, mientras que el grupo de BN mostró mayor porcentaje de errores no persevarativos. Ambas, mujeres JP y BN mostraron disfunción ejecutiva en relación a los CS pero con diferentes correlatos específcos.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.