Monte Carlo-Based Bayesian group object tracking and causal reasoning

We present algorithms for tracking and reasoning of local traits in the subsystem level based on the observed emergent behavior of multiple coordinated groups in potentially cluttered environments. Our proposed Bayesian inference schemes, which are primarily based on (Markov chain) Monte Carlo sequential methods, include: 1) an evolving network-based multiple object tracking algorithm that is capable of categorizing objects into groups, 2) a multiple cluster tracking algorithm for dealing with prohibitively large number of objects, and 3) a causality inference framework for identifying dominant agents based exclusively on their observed trajectories.We use these as building blocks for developing a unified tracking and behavioral reasoning paradigm. Both synthetic and realistic examples are provided for demonstrating the derived concepts. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

A logic for default reasoning

The need to make default assumptions is frequently encountered in reasoning about incompletely specified worlds. Inferences sanctioned by default are best viewed as beliefs which may well be modified or rejected by subsequent observations. It is this property which leads to the non-monotonicity of any logic of defaults. In this paper we propose a logic for default reasoning. We then specialize our treatment to a very large class of commonly occuring defaults. For this class we develop a complete proof theory and show how to interface it with a top down resolution theorem prover. Finally, we provide criteria under which the revision of derived beliefs must be effected.

Motivated Action Theory: A Formal Theory of Causal Reasoning

When we reason about change over time, causation provides an implicit preference: we prefer sequences of situations in which one situation leads causally to the next, rather than sequences in which one situation follows another at random and without causal connections. In this paper, we explore the problem of temporal reasoning --- reasoning about change over time --- and the crucial role that causation plays in our intuitions. We examine previous approaches to temporal reasoning, and their shortcomings, in light of this analysis. We propose a new system for causal reasoning, motivated action theory, which builds upon causation as a crucial preference creterion. Motivated action theory solves the traditional problems of both forward and backward reasoning, and additionally provides a basis for a new theory of explanation.

Meta-Rules: Reasoning About Control

How can we insure that knowledge embedded in a program is applied effectively? Traditionally the answer to this question has been sought in different problem solving paradigms and in different approaches to encoding and indexing knowledge. Each of these is useful with a certain variety of problem, but they all share a common problem: they become ineffective in the face of a sufficiently large knowledge base. How then can we make it possible for a system to continue to function in the face of a very large number of plausibly useful chunks of knowledge? In response to this question we propose a framework for viewing issues of knowledge indexing and retrieval, a framework that includes what appears to be a useful perspective on the concept of a strategy. We view strategies as a means of controlling invocation in situations where traditional selection mechanisms become ineffective. We examine ways to effect such control, and describe meta-rules, a means of specifying strategies which offers a number of advantages. We consider at some length how and when it is useful to reason about control, and explore the advantages meta-rules offer for doing this.

Combining Associational and Causal Reasoning to Solve Interpretation and Planning Problems

This report describes a paradigm for combining associational and causal reasoning to achieve efficient and robust problem-solving behavior. The Generate, Test and Debug (GTD) paradigm generates initial hypotheses using associational (heuristic) rules. The tester verifies hypotheses, supplying the debugger with causal explanations for bugs found if the test fails. The debugger uses domain-independent causal reasoning techniques to repair hypotheses, analyzing domain models and the causal explanations produced by the tester to determine how to replace faulty assumptions made by the generator. We analyze the strengths and weaknesses of associational and causal reasoning techniques, and present a theory of debugging plans and interpretations. The GTD paradigm has been implemented and tested in the domains of geologic interpretation, the blocks world, and Tower of Hanoi problems.

A Study of Qualitative and Geometric Knowledge in Reasoning about Motion

Reasoning about motion is an important part of our commonsense knowledge, involving fluent spatial reasoning. This work studies the qualitative and geometric knowledge required to reason in a world that consists of balls moving through space constrained by collisions with surfaces, including dissipative forces and multiple moving objects. An analog geometry representation serves the program as a diagram, allowing many spatial questions to be answered by numeric calculation. It also provides the foundation for the construction and use of place vocabulary, the symbolic descriptions of space required to do qualitative reasoning about motion in the domain. The actual motion of a ball is described as a network consisting of descriptions of qualitatively distinct types of motion. Implementing the elements of these networks in a constraint language allows the same elements to be used for both analysis and simulation of motion. A qualitative description of the actual motion is also used to check the consistency of assumptions about motion. A process of qualitative simulation is used to describe the kinds of motion possible from some state. The ambiguity inherent in such a description can be reduced by assumptions about physical properties of the ball or assumptions about its motion. Each assumption directly rules out some kinds of motion, but other knowledge is required to determine the indirect consequences of making these assumptions. Some of this knowledge is domain dependent and relies heavily on spatial descriptions.

Representing and Reasoning About Change in Geologic Interpretation

Geologic interpretation is the task of inferring a sequence of events to explain how a given geologic region could have been formed. This report describes the design and implementation of one part of a geologic interpretation problem solver -- a system which uses a simulation technique called imagining to check the validity of a candidate sequence of events. Imagining uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative simulations to reason about the changes which occured to the geologic region. The spatial changes which occur are simulated by constructing a sequence of diagrams. The quantitative simulation needs numeric parameters which are determined by using the qualitative simulation to establish the cumulative changes to an object and by using a description of the current geologic region to make quantitative measurements. The diversity of reasoning skills used in imagining has necessitated the development of multiple representations, each specialized for a different task. Representations to facilitate doing temporal, spatial and numeric reasoning are described in detail. We have also found it useful to explicitly represent processes. Both the qualitative and quantitative simulations use a discrete 'layer cake' model of geologic processes, but each uses a separate representation, specialized to support the type of simulation. These multiple representations have enabled us to develop a powerful, yet modular, system for reasoning about change.

Reasoning Modeled as a Society of Communicating Experts

This report describes a domain independent reasoning system. The system uses a frame-based knowledge representation language and various reasoning techniques including constraint propagation, progressive refinement, natural deduction and explicit control of reasoning. A computational architecture based on active objects which operate by exchanging messages is developed and it is shown how this architecture supports reasoning activity. The user interacts with the system by specifying frames and by giving descriptions defining the problem situation. The system uses its reasoning capacity to build up a model of the problem situation from which a solution can interactively be extracted. Examples are discussed from a variety of domains, including electronic circuits, mechanical devices and music. The main thesis is that a reasoning system is best viewed as a parallel system whose control and data are distributed over a large network of processors that interact by exchanging messages. Such a system will be metaphorically described as a society of communicating experts.