Accuracy in book papers' sales forecasting

The main objective of this thesis was to study if the quantitative sales forecasting methods will enhance the accuracy of the sales forecast in comparison to qualitative sales forecasting method. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general sales forecasting process, forecasting methods and techniques and forecasting accuracy measurement. In the empirical part of the study the accuracy of the forecasts provided by both qualitative and quantitative methods is being studied and compared in the case of short, medium and long term forecasts. The SAS® Forecast Server –tool was used in creating the quantitative forecasts.

Materiaalisuunnittelun mittaaminen elintarviketeollisuudessa

Työssä tutkitaan materiaalisuunnittelun mittausta elintarvikealan yrityksessä. Tut-kimuksella on kolme tavoitetta, jotka ovat miten materiaalisuunnittelua mitataan yrityksessä, toimivatko mittarit oikein ja mittaavatko mittarit haluttuja asioita. Työ on tapaustutkimus, joka koostuu teoreettisesta kirjallisuusselvityksestä ja empiirisestä tapaustutkimuksesta. Empiirinen aineisto on hankittu sekä kvalitatii-visin että kvantitatiivisin menetelmin. Työn tutkimustavoitteiden saavuttaminen edellytti materiaalisuunnittelijoille ky-selyn tekemistä. Kyselyn ja tavoitteiden avulla määriteltiin mittarit, joita halutaan seurata. Käytössä olevalle mittaristolle etsittiin vaihtoehtoa toiminnanohjausjär-jestelmästä. Vertailemalla mittaristoja päädyttiin käyttämään vanhaan mittaristoa. Materiaalisuunnittelun mittaaminen on tärkeätä, koska hankinnat vaikuttavat yri-tyksen tulokseen ja ilman mittausta materiaalisuunnittelu ei voi kehittyä. Valittu mittaristo täyttää kaikki sen vaatimukset ja siitä löytyvät mittarit, joita halutaan seurata. Mittariston avulla yritys pystyy seuraamaan materiaalisuunnittelun tavoit-teiden saavuttamista eli varastoihin sitoutuneen pääoman kehitystä. Mittariston tulee olla yhteydessä yrityksen hankintastrategiaan ja –tavoitteisiin. Mittariston oikeellisuutta tulee tarkastella säännöllisin väliajoin, jotta varmistutaan siitä, että mitataan seurattavia asioita.

Cloud computing contribution to manufacturing industry

Manufacturing industry has been always facing challenge to improve the production efficiency, product quality, innovation ability and struggling to adopt cost-effective manufacturing system. In recent years cloud computing is emerging as one of the major enablers for the manufacturing industry. Combining the emerged cloud computing and other advanced manufacturing technologies such as Internet of Things, service-oriented architecture (SOA), networked manufacturing (NM) and manufacturing grid (MGrid), with existing manufacturing models and enterprise information technologies, a new paradigm called cloud manufacturing is proposed by the recent literature. This study presents concepts and ideas of cloud computing and cloud manufacturing. The concept, architecture, core enabling technologies, and typical characteristics of cloud manufacturing are discussed, as well as the difference and relationship between cloud computing and cloud manufacturing. The research is based on mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, and a case study. The case is a prototype of cloud manufacturing solution, which is software platform cooperated by ATR Soft Oy and SW Company China office. This study tries to understand the practical impacts and challenges that are derived from cloud manufacturing. The main conclusion of this study is that cloud manufacturing is an approach to achieve the transformation from traditional production-oriented manufacturing to next generation service-oriented manufacturing. Many manufacturing enterprises are already using a form of cloud computing in their existing network infrastructure to increase flexibility of its supply chain, reduce resources consumption, the study finds out the shift from cloud computing to cloud manufacturing is feasible. Meanwhile, the study points out the related theory, methodology and application of cloud manufacturing system are far from maturity, it is still an open field where many new technologies need to be studied.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh. The Roles of Infrastructural Facilities

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has been a key concern for Bangladesh to obtain additional support for the economic development. The Government of Bangladesh continuously competing with other South Asian countries and putting more effort to increase the number of FDI inflows in the country. From the country’s perspective, the constant increasing rate of economic growth shows a positive outcome of FDI inflow. However, the country still not performing up to the mark to pull enough FDI inflows to its potential. Thus, this study discusses about the major determinants and factors affecting FDI inflows in Bangladesh. Among those determinants and factors, infrastructural facility is considered as the most important to affect FDI inflows. FDI inflow is fundamentally depending upon infrastructural facilities to achieve its desire success. Foreign investors take this issue very seriously because based on this they can measure their ease of doing business in the host country. Despite of providing a large market size, due to having weak and lack of infrastructural facilities, Bangladesh is facing trouble in drawing attention of the foreign investors. In order to make the infrastructural facilities happen, it is highly required to organize each of the systems under of it. The body of this study discussed about the weak infrastructures in Bangladesh such as transport and communication, power and energy, education system, and governance services. Improvement in one of these systems cannot provide valuable positive changes on FDI inflows. It requires improvement in all the weak systems to grasp multinational companies and attract foreign investors. On the basis of this research problem, research questions are established. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to answer the research questions. Furthermore, several theories have been applied to justify possible scenarios from the research problem. In addition, the history in between Bangladesh, trade liberalization, and FDI inflows is presented briefly.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh. The Roles of Infrastructural Facilities

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has been a key concern for Bangladesh to obtain additional support for the economic development. The Government of Bangladesh continuously competing with other South Asian countries and putting more effort to increase the number of FDI inflows in the country. From the country’s perspective, the constant increasing rate of economic growth shows a positive outcome of FDI inflow. However, the country still not performing up to the mark to pull enough FDI inflows to its potential. Thus, this study discusses about the major determinants and factors affecting FDI inflows in Bangladesh. Among those determinants and factors, infrastructural facility is considered as the most important to affect FDI inflows. FDI inflow is fundamentally depending upon infrastructural facilities to achieve its desire success. Foreign investors take this issue very seriously because based on this they can measure their ease of doing business in the host country. Despite of providing a large market size, due to having weak and lack of infrastructural facilities, Bangladesh is facing trouble in drawing attention of the foreign investors. In order to make the infrastructural facilities happen, it is highly required to organize each of the systems under of it. The body of this study discussed about the weak infrastructures in Bangladesh such as transport and communication, power and energy, education system, and governance services. Improvement in one of these systems cannot provide valuable positive changes on FDI inflows. It requires improvement in all the weak systems to grasp multinational companies and attract foreign investors. On the basis of this research problem, research questions are established. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to answer the research questions. Furthermore, several theories have been applied to justify possible scenarios from the research problem. In addition, the history in between Bangladesh, trade liberalization, and FDI inflows is presented briefly

Planeamento estratégico de sistemas de informação em empresa de construção

Os Sistemas de Informação têm influenciado a vida quotidiana a um ritmo inesperado e com mudanças significativas na setor da construção, cuja importância é crucial para a economia de qualquer país. Sendo Angola, um país de economia emergente, caracterizado por um mercado em expansão e reestruturação, onde as decisões de Sistema Informação ainda são tomadas de forma isolada, e cada vez mais investidores estão a atuar no país, impulsionando o crescimento, é imperioso para o sector a identificação e exploração de Sistemas de Informação flexíveis e adaptáveis para fazer face as forças competitivas do setor. Partindo desta envolvente a presente dissertação visa ressaltar o reconhecimento da importância do Planeamento Estratégico de Sistemas de Informação-PESI para as organizações atuais. Neste contexto realizou-se o estudo de PESI em torno de um caso concreto numa Pequena Media Empresa, Angolana, a Terponte,SA, cujo objectivo é fornecer a construtora um plano em termos de SI para futuro. Os dados foram recolhidos através da utilização dos métodos qualitativos e quantitativos, sendo os mais pertinentes a análise documental, observação direta, entrevistas, questionários aos órgãos da empresa em estudo e demais intuições. A análise dos dados demonstrou uma deficiente gestão da informação, bem como inexistência de integração aplicacional. A presente dissertação pretende contribuir para o avanço do conhecimento científico no domínio do Planeamento Estratégico dos Sistemas de Informação e para a resolução de problemas específicos nomeadamente nas empresas do setor da construção civil.

Confiança nas Instituições e Valores Culturais : Estudo Internacional Comparado entre Angola, Cabo Verde, Moçambique e Portugal

The present study shows the results of an international comparative research carried out in four Portuguese-speaking countries: Angola, Cape Verde, Mozambique and Portugal. The purpose is, firstly, to find these countries cultural profile according to Hofstede/ Minkov dimensions as well as to measure the citizens` level of trust in institutions and, secondly, to analyze the relation between cultural values and level of trust. A bibliographic and theoretical review has been made on the main theoretical references about trust as far as its multiple forms and dimensions are concerned. Then, a scale of confidence in institutions has been drawn. An extensive analysis has been carried out, using qualitative and quantitative methods, including factorial analysis and simple linear regression. The results provide relevant information on what makes the four target countries very alike and on what differentiates them the most. In Portugal, a tendency towards a growing trust in institutions of public offering has been registered, whereas in the African countries, citizens tend to trust institutions of private offering more. All the institutions connected with the judicial and political sphere of society have been negatively qualified by the respondents in all countries, in a relatively similar way.

The art of shooting the moving goal - explorative study of EA pilot

Enterprise Architecture (EA) has been recognised as an important tool in modern business management for closing the gap between strategy and its execution. The current literature implies that for EA to be successful, it should have clearly defined goals. However, the goals of different stakeholders are found to be different, even contradictory. In our explorative research, we seek an answer to the questions: What kind of goals are set for the EA implementation? How do the goals evolve during the time? Are the goals different among stakeholders? How do they affect the success of EA? We analysed an EA pilot conducted among eleven Finnish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in 2011. The goals of the pilot were gathered from three different stages of the pilot: before the pilot, during the pilot, and after the pilot, by means of a project plan, interviews during the pilot and a questionnaire after the pilot. The data was analysed using qualitative and quantitative methods. Eight distinct goals were recognised by the coding: Adopt EA Method, Build Information Systems, Business Development, Improve Reporting, Process Improvement, Quality Assurance, Reduce Complexity, and Understand the Big Picture. The success of the pilot was analysed statistically using the scale 1-5. Results revealed that goals set before the pilot were very different from those mentioned during the pilot, or after the pilot. Goals before the pilot were mostly related to expected benefits from the pilot, whereas the most important result was to adopt the EA method. Results can be explained by possibly different roles of respondents, which in turn were most likely caused by poor communication. Interestingly, goals mentioned by different stakeholders were not limited to their traditional areas of responsibility. For example, in some cases Chief Information Officers' goals were Quality Assurance and Process Improvement, whereas managers’ goals were Build Information Systems and Adopt EA Method. This could be a result of a good understanding of the meaning of EA, or stakeholders do not regard EA as their concern at all. It is also interesting to notice that regardless of the different perceptions of goals among stakeholders, all HEIs felt the pilot to be successful. Thus the research does not provide support to confirm the link between clear goals and success.

Hospitais universitários e fatores ambientais na implementação das politicas de saude e educação : o caso do Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria

Este trabalho monográfico trata de Hospitais Universitários e Fatores Ambientais Relevantes na Implementação das Políticas de Saúde e Educação de Recursos Humanos para a saúde. Primeiramente, busca identificar a evolução das políticas, no Brasil, a partir da VªConferência Nacional de Saúde (1975) até a constitucionalização do Sistema Único de Saúde (1988), deixando evidente as dificuldades de implementação destas políticas no seu nível de orçamento e ação. Levanta, também, as características da instituição Hospital Universitário, desde de sua origem, na década de 60, para atender às necessidades das escolas médicas, até os questionamentos quanto às suas funções sociais nos nossos dias, assim como a forma de sua gestão ao inserir-se no Sistema Único de Saúde. Ainda, caracterizando os Hospitais Universitários como uma organização complexa, busca na literatura da Ciência Administrativa, referências sobre organização, análise ambiental e estratégia no planejamento e gerência. Na análise ambiental, salienta o estudo dos Fatores Ambientais Relevantes, para o melhor desempenho organizacional na implementação adequada das po~íticas. Com este embasamento, faz um estudo de caso do Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria, usando modelo de análise que associa métodos qualitativo e quantitativo com a participação de um grupo interdisciplinar da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, e programa de processamento de dados - análise estrutural. Com este modelo, levanta os Fatores Ambientais de maior relevância no sistema da organização em estudo. Usa também a técnica da entrevista para atender o objetivo específico de identificar a percepção destes fatores, pelo grupo gerencial da organização hospitalar.

Observatório de gestão: investigação sobre práticas gerenciais em empresas brasileiras e sua relação com o desempenho

A relação entre as práticas gerenciais, a competitividade e o desempenho da empresa é um tema de grande interesse para pesquisadores dos campos de estratégia, gestão de operações, gestão de pessoas e estudos organizacionais. Esta pesquisa analisou a aplicação das práticas gerenciais nas empresas manufatureiras de pequeno e médio porte do Brasil. Ela foi desenvolvida a partir de um modelo de investigação desenvolvido por Bloom e Van Reenen (2007), e aplicado em diversos países. Foi utilizado um questionário semi-estruturado em entrevistas telefônicas com diretores de produção de uma amostra de empresas selecionadas a partir de critérios estatísticos. Esta pesquisa apresenta contribuições de natureza gerencial e acadêmica. Como contribuição gerencial, a pesquisa identifica diferenças entre as empresas brasileiras e as de empresas de países desenvolvidos, indicando trilhas para aperfeiçoamento das práticas administrativas. Como contribuição acadêmica, a pesquisa apresenta a aplicação no Brasil de metodologia de investigação mista, que combina métodos qualitativos e quantitativos. Além disso, o trabalho criou uma base de dados para futuras investigações sobre a relação entre as práticas gerenciais e o desempenho.

Gestão do conhecimento na administração pública e uso de tecnologia da informação para melhoria dos resultados: o caso do Corpo de Intendentes da Marinha

Vivemos em uma sociedade cada vez mais globalizada, atenta, informada e exigente com os serviços prestados pelas organizações públicas e privadas. A tecnologia disponibiliza a um número cada vez maior de pessoas, em tempo real, um conjunto enorme de informações, opiniões, possibilitando que elas interajam com diferentes culturas e, desconsiderando suas distâncias, as unem de forma nunca antes experimentada pela humanidade. A influência da tecnologia vem trazendo consequências tão profundas ao nosso estilo de vida que, a cada nova invenção, novas experiências podem ser vividas e palavras como inovação, reinvenção e mudança estão constantemente em pauta. Nesse contexto é que a gestão do conhecimento vem se tornando cada vez mais importante nos ambientes corporativos, unindo pessoas certas, desenvolvendo e compartilhando novos conhecimentos, enfim, tornando mais fácil lidar com as constantes mudanças e consequentes inseguranças geradas. Assim, este trabalho verificou qual o nível de gestão do conhecimento realizado dentro de um órgão da administração pública federal brasileira, a Marinha do Brasil, e, especificamente no seu Corpo de Intendentes, mediu em oito de suas principais organizações militares, por meio de métodos qualitativos e quantitativos, como essa ferramenta vem sendo utilizada. Ao final, de forma propositiva, com base nos resultados das avaliações realizadas e na revisão teórica, foi sugerida uma estrutura de gestão do conhecimento que possibilite melhorar os atuais níveis de gestão do conhecimento detectados, contribuindo para que ações empreendidas nesse sentido sejam mais eficazes, eficientes e efetivas, acelerando, portanto, o desenvolvimento dessas organizações.

Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens pv. Flaccumfaciens detection in bean seeds using a semi-selective culture medium

The bacterial wilt caused by Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens pv. flaccumfaciens is currently considered one of the most important bacterial bean disease in Brazil. One of the most effective control methods against this disease is the use of healthy seeds. However, no methods are known that could be routinely used to detect this bacterium in bean seeds under Brazilian condition. The aim of this work was to evaluate qualitative and quantitative detection methods for Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens pv. flaccumfaciens in naturally-infected bean seeds, and the detection of this pathogen in thirty bean seed samples, by sowing onto a semi- selective culture medium the leachate obtained from soaked bean seeds. Both the qualitative and quantitative methods were effective for detecting the presence of the bacteria in the seeds samples analysed. The qualitative method proved more practical for rotine use; of the thirty bean seed samples analyzed by this method, fifty percent were infected with Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens pv. flaccumfaciens.

Efeito do raloxifeno sobre a densidade mamográfica em mulheres na pós-menopausa

PURPOSE: to evaluate changes in mammographic breast density in postmenopausal women using raloxifene. METHODS: in this clinical trial, 80 women (mean age=61.1 years) were studied prospectively. Forty patients received 60 mg/day raloxifene, and 40 women comprised the non-treated group (control), paired by age and time of menopause. The treated group was composed of patients with osteoporosis of the lumbar spine. Those with history of breast surgery and users of hormone therapy up to six months prior to the study were excluded. The breast density was assessed qualitatively (subjective) and quantitatively (objective) in two moments, initial and final, after a 6-month follow-up. The 320 mammograms (craniocaudal and oblique) were interpreted qualitatively by the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) classification and quantitatively by digital scanning and computer-assisted segmentation. For statistical analysis t-test, Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney, Spearman correlation and the kappa index were used. RESULTS: on the initial statistical comparison, the groups were considered homogenous for the variables: analyzed age, time of menopause, parity, breast feeding, previous hormonal therapy and body mass index. Baseline breast density, by qualitative and quantitative methods, correlated negatively with the age in both groups (p<0.05). Concerning the other variables, there was no correlation. After six months, no alteration was observed in the mammographic breast density in 38 women of raloxifene group and 38 of the control group, by qualitative method. However, by quantitative method, no alteration was observed in 30 women of the raloxifene group and 27 controls (p>0.05). It was observed a weak agreement rate (kappa=0.25) between the BI-RADS classification and digital scanning/computer-assisted segmentation. CONCLUSIONS: in post-menopausal women with osteoporosis, submitted to raloxifene treatment for six months, no alterations were observed on the mammographic breast density.

Análise dos sinais radiográficos da densidade óssea mineral em radiografias panorâmicas em pacientes na pré e pós menopausa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Revendo o debate quantidade-qualidade: tendências da pesquisa na Biblioteconomia e Ciência da Informação

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)