Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Political theory and theoretical physics

This paper argues, somewhat along a Simmelian line, that political theory may produce practical and universal theories like those developed in theoretical physics. The reasoning behind this paper is to show that the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may be true by way of comparing it to Einstein’s Special Relativity – specifically concerning the parameters of symmetry, unification, simplicity, and utility. These parameters are what make a theory in physics as meeting them not only fits with current knowledge, but also produces paths towards testing (application). As the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may meet these same parameters, it could settle the debate concerning the definition of democracy. This will be argued firstly by discussing what the theory of ‘basic democracy’ is and why it differs from previous work; secondly by explaining the parameters chosen (as in why these and not others confirm or scuttle theories); and thirdly by comparing how Special Relativity and the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may match the parameters.

Optimization problems for controlled mechanical systems : bridging the gap between theory and application

Mechanical control systems have become a part of our everyday life. Systems such as automobiles, robot manipulators, mobile robots, satellites, buildings with active vibration controllers and air conditioning systems, make life easier and safer, as well as help us explore the world we live in and exploit it’s available resources. In this chapter, we examine a specific example of a mechanical control system; the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). Our contribution to the advancement of AUV research is in the area of guidance and control. We present innovative techniques to design and implement control strategies that consider the optimization of time and/or energy consumption. Recent advances in robotics, control theory, portable energy sources and automation increase our ability to create more intelligent robots, and allows us to conduct more explorations by use of autonomous vehicles. This facilitates access to higher risk areas, longer time underwater, and more efficient exploration as compared to human occupied vehicles. The use of underwater vehicles is expanding in every area of ocean science. Such vehicles are used by oceanographers, archaeologists, geologists, ocean engineers, and many others. These vehicles are designed to be agile, versatile and robust, and thus, their usage has gone from novelty to necessity for any ocean expedition.

Geometric Control Theory and its Application to Underwater Vehicles

This dissertation is based on theoretical study and experiments which extend geometric control theory to practical applications within the field of ocean engineering. We present a method for path planning and control design for underwater vehicles by use of the architecture of differential geometry. In addition to the theoretical design of the trajectory and control strategy, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the method via the implementation onto a test-bed autonomous underwater vehicle. Bridging the gap between theory and application is the ultimate goal of control theory. Major developments have occurred recently in the field of geometric control which narrow this gap and which promote research linking theory and application. In particular, Riemannian and affine differential geometry have proven to be a very effective approach to the modeling of mechanical systems such as underwater vehicles. In this framework, the application of a kinematic reduction allows us to calculate control strategies for fully and under-actuated vehicles via kinematic decoupled motion planning. However, this method has not yet been extended to account for external forces such as dissipative viscous drag and buoyancy induced potentials acting on a submerged vehicle. To fully bridge the gap between theory and application, this dissertation addresses the extension of this geometric control design method to include such forces. We incorporate the hydrodynamic drag experienced by the vehicle by modifying the Levi-Civita affine connection and demonstrate a method for the compensation of potential forces experienced during a prescribed motion. We present the design method for multiple different missions and include experimental results which validate both the extension of the theory and the ability to implement control strategies designed through the use of geometric techniques. By use of the extension presented in this dissertation, the underwater vehicle application successfully demonstrates the applicability of geometric methods to design implementable motion planning solutions for complex mechanical systems having equal or fewer input forces than available degrees of freedom. Thus, we provide another tool with which to further increase the autonomy of underwater vehicles.

Noise robust voice activity detection using normal probability testing and time-domain histogram analysis

This paper presents a method of voice activity detection (VAD) suitable for high noise scenarios, based on the fusion of two complementary systems. The first system uses a proposed non-Gaussianity score (NGS) feature based on normal probability testing. The second system employs a histogram distance score (HDS) feature that detects changes in the signal through conducting a template-based similarity measure between adjacent frames. The decision outputs by the two systems are then merged using an open-by-reconstruction fusion stage. Accuracy of the proposed method was compared to several baseline VAD methods on a database created using real recordings of a variety of high-noise environments.

Essays on irrigation development, farm production and unaccounted costs : theory and empirical evidence

A review of the literature related to issues involved in irrigation induced agricultural development (IIAD) reveals that: (1) the magnitude, sensitivity and distribution of social welfare of IIAD is not fully analysed; (2) the impacts of excessive pesticide use on farmers’ health are not adequately explained; (3) no analysis estimates the relationship between farm level efficiency and overuse of agro-chemical inputs under imperfect markets; and (4) the method of incorporating groundwater extraction costs is misleading. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. First, the thesis demonstrates that Sri Lanka has gained a positive welfare change as a result of introducing new irrigation technology. The change in the consumer surplus is Rs.48,236 million, while the change in the producer surplus is Rs. 14,274 millions between 1970 and 2006. The results also show that the long run benefits and costs of IIAD depend critically on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated area, as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (agricultural crowding out effects). The traditional sector’s ability to compete with the modern sector depends on productivity improvements, reducing production costs and future structural changes (spillover effects). Second, the thesis findings on pesticides used for agriculture show that, on average, a farmer incurs a cost of approximately Rs. 590 to 800 per month during a typical cultivation period due to exposure to pesticides. It is shown that the value of average loss in earnings per farmer for the ‘hospitalised’ sample is Rs. 475 per month, while it is approximately Rs. 345 per month for the ‘general’ farmers group during a typical cultivation season. However, the average willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid exposure to pesticides is approximately Rs. 950 and Rs. 620 for ‘hospitalised’ and ‘general’ farmers’ samples respectively. The estimated percentage contribution for WTP due to health costs, lost earnings, mitigating expenditure, and disutility are 29, 50, 5 and 16 per cent respectively for hospitalised farmers, while they are 32, 55, 8 and 5 per cent respectively for ‘general’ farmers. It is also shown that given market imperfections for most agricultural inputs, farmers are overusing pesticides with the expectation of higher future returns. This has led to an increase in inefficiency in farming practices which is not understood by the farmers. Third, it is found that various groundwater depletion studies in the economics literature have provided misleading optimal water extraction quantity levels. This is due to a failure to incorporate all production costs in the relevant models. It is only by incorporating quality changes to quantity deterioration, that it is possible to derive socially optimal levels. Empirical results clearly show that the benefits per hectare per month considering both the avoidance costs of deepening agro-wells by five feet from the existing average, as well as the avoidance costs of maintaining the water salinity level at 1.8 (mmhos/Cm), is approximately Rs. 4,350 for farmers in the Anuradhapura district and Rs. 5,600 for farmers in the Matale district.

Empirical minimization

We investigate the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm using various methods. We first analyze it by comparing the empirical, random, structure and the original one on the class, either in an additive sense, via the uniform law of large numbers, or in a multiplicative sense, using isomorphic coordinate projections. We then show that a direct analysis of the empirical minimization algorithm yields a significantly better bound, and that the estimates we obtain are essentially sharp. The method of proof we use is based on Talagrand’s concentration inequality for empirical processes.

Negotiation theory and application in the business environment

This chapter introduces different theoretical approaches to negotiation and provides an explanation of these differing frameworks. While the action of a negotiation centres on the background research undertaken and what happens at the negotiation table, there is a need to know what principles and assumptions are informing these activities. Theories offer a way of understanding the underlying structures, processes and relationships of negotiation. Further, negotiation theories also assist with focusing attention on the 'basis of the bargain' and provide a standpoint from which to judge offers and counter-offers during the negotiation.

Understanding evaluation of learning support in mathematics and statistics

With rapid and continuing growth of learning support initiatives in mathematics and statistics found in many parts of the world, and with the likelihood that this trend will continue, there is a need to ensure that robust and coherent measures are in place to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives. The nature of learning support brings challenges for measurement and analysis of its effects. After briefly reviewing the purpose, rationale for, and extent of current provision, this article provides a framework for those working in learning support to think about how their efforts can be evaluated. It provides references and specific examples of how workers in this field are collecting, analysing and reporting their findings. The framework is used to structure evaluation in terms of usage of facilities, resources and services provided, and also in terms of improvements in performance of the students and staff who engage with them. Very recent developments have started to address the effects of learning support on the development of deeper approaches to learning, the affective domain and the development of communities of practice of both learners and teachers. This article intends to be a stimulus to those who work in mathematics and statistics support to gather even richer, more valuable, forms of data. It provides a 'toolkit' for those interested in evaluation of learning support and closes by referring to an on-line resource being developed to archive the growing body of evidence. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

A strategy for delayed research method selection : deciding between grounded theory and phenomenology

This paper presents a strategy for delayed research method selection in a qualitative interpretivist research. An exemplary case details how explorative interviews were designed and conducted in accordance with a paradigm prior to deciding whether to adopt grounded theory or phenomenology for data analysis. The focus here is to determine the most appropriate research strategy in this case the methodological framing to conduct research and represent findings, both of which are detailed. Research addressing current management issues requires both a flexible framework and the capability to consider the research problem from various angles, to derive tangible results for academia with immediate application to business demands. Researchers, and in particular novices, often struggle to decide on an appropriate research method suitable to address their research problem. This often applies to interpretative qualitative research where it is not always immediately clear which is the most appropriate method to use, as the research objectives shift and crystallize over time. This paper uses an exemplary case to reveal how the strategy for delayed research method selection contributes to deciding whether to adopt grounded theory or phenomenology in the initial phase of a PhD research project. In this case, semi-structured interviews were used for data generation framed in an interpretivist approach, situated in a business context. Research questions for this study were thoroughly defined and carefully framed in accordance with the research paradigm‟s principles, while at the same time ensuring that the requirements of both potential research methods were met. The grounded theory and phenomenology methods were compared and contrasted to determine their suitability and whether they meet the research objectives based on a pilot study. The strategy proposed in this paper is an alternative to the more „traditional‟ approach, which initially selects the methodological formulation, followed by data generation. In conclusion, the suggested strategy for delayed research method selection intends to help researchers identify and apply the most appropriate method to their research. This strategy is based on explorations of data generation and analysis in order to derive faithful results from the data generated.