Family structure and change through middle childhood : the impact on children's adjustment and achievement

This research project investigated the influence of family transitions on children's adjustment and school achievement across the primary school years, in single-parent, re-partnered and two-parent families. The quality of children's relationships with parents, teachers and peers were predictive of more positive outcomes, regardless of family structure. The research analysed data from the Kindergarten Cohort participating in Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Across the age span of the children studied, cumulative effects of any residential or school changes, or decreased family income, associated with family transitions, were more likely to predict poorer child outcomes in behaviour adjustment and school achievement.

Comparisons between youth of a parent with MS and a control group on adjustment, caregiving, attachment and family functioning

Few studies have examined the effects of parental MS on children, and those that have suffered from numerous methodological weaknesses, some of which are addressed in this study. This study investigated the effects of parental MS on children by comparing youth of a parent with MS to youth who have no family member with a serious health condition on adjustment outcomes, caregiving, attachment and family functioning. A questionnaire survey methodology was used. Measures included youth somatisation, health, pro-social behaviour, behavioural-social difficulties, caregiving, attachment and family functioning. A total of 126 youth of a parent with MS were recruited from MS Societies in Australia and, were matched one-to-one with youth who had no family member with a health condition drawn from a large community sample. Comparisons showed that youth of a parent with MS did not differ on any of the outcomes except for peer relationship problems: adolescent youth of a parent with MS reported lower peer relationship problems than control adolescents. Overall, results did not support prior research findings suggesting adverse impacts of parental MS on youth.

The effects of parental illness and other ill family members on the adjustment of children

Background This study addresses limitations of prior research that have used group comparison designs to test the effects of parental illness on youth. Purpose This study examined differences in adjustment between children of a parent with illness and peers from ‘healthy’ families controlling for the effects of whether a parent or non-parent family member is ill, illness type, demographics and caregiving. Methods Based on questionnaire data, groups were derived from a community sample of 2,474 youth (‘healthy’ family, n = 1768; parental illness, n = 336; other family member illness, n = 254; both parental and other family illness, n = 116). Results The presence of any family member with an illness is associated with greater risk of mental health difficulties for youth relative to peers from healthy families. This risk is elevated if the ill family member is a parent and has mental illness or substance misuse. Conclusions Serious health problems within a household adversely impact youth adjustment.

An experimental study of the effects of work stress, work control, and task information on adjustment

The present study was designed to examine the main and interactive effects of task demands, work control, and task information on levels of adjustment. Task demands, work control, and task information were manipulated in an experimental setting where participants completed a letter-sorting activity (N= 128). Indicators of adjustment included measures of positive mood, participants' perceptions of task performance, and task satisfaction. Results of the present study provided some support for the main effects of objective task demands, work control, and task information on levels of adjustment. At the subjective level of analysis, there was some evidence to suggest that work control and task information interacted in their effects on levels of adjustment. There was minimal support for the proposal that work control and task information would buffer the negative effects of task demands on adjustment. There was, however, some evidence to suggest that the stress-buffering role of subjective work control was more marked at high, rather than low, levels of subjective task information.

Adjustment of apnea-hypopnea index with severity of obstruction events enhances detection of sleep apnea patients with the highest risk of severe health consequences

Introduction Presently, the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is estimated based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Unfortunately, AHI does not provide information on the severity of individual obstruction events. Previously, the severity of individual obstruction events has been suggested to be related to the outcome of the disease. In this study, we incorporate this information into AHI and test whether this novel approach would aid in discriminating patients with the highest risk. We hypothesize that the introduced adjusted AHI parameter provides a valuable supplement to AHI in the diagnosis of the severity of OSA. Methods This hypothesis was tested by means of retrospective follow-up (mean ± sd follow-up time 198.2 ± 24.7 months) of 1,068 men originally referred to night polygraphy due to suspected OSA. After exclusion of the 264 patients using CPAP, the remaining 804 patients were divided into normal (AHI < 5) and OSA (AHI ≥ 5) categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. For a more detailed analysis, the patients were divided into normal, mild, moderate, and severe OSA categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. Subsequently, the mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in these groups were determined. Results Use of the severity of individual obstruction events for adjustment of AHI led to a significant rearrangement of patients between severity categories. Due to this rearrangement, the number of deceased patients diagnosed to have OSA was increased when adjusted AHI was used as the diagnostic index. Importantly, risk ratios of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular morbidity were higher in moderate and severe OSA groups formed based on the adjusted AHI parameter than in those formed based on conventional AHI. Conclusions The adjusted AHI parameter was found to give valuable supplementary information to AHI and to potentially improve the recognition of OSA patients with the highest risk of mortality or cardiovascular morbidity.

Parental divorce and adjustment in adulthood: Findings from a community sample

The current study examines the link between the experience of divorce in childhood and several indices of adjustment in adulthood in a large community sample of women. Results replicated previous research on the long-term correlation between parental divorce and depression and divorce in adulthood. Results further suggested that parental divorce was associated with a wide range of early risk factors, life course patterns, and several indices of adult adjustment. Regression analyses indicated that the long-term correlation between parental divorce and depression in adulthood is explained by quality of parent-child and parental marital relations (in childhood), concurrent levels of stressful life events and social support, and cohabitation. The long-term association between parental divorce and experiencing a divorce in adulthood was partly mediated through quality of parent-child relations, teenage pregnancy, leaving home before 18 years, and educational attainment.

On the moderators of trait avoidance motivation in predicting cognitive biases and adjustment

The present research focused on motivational and personality traits measuring individual differences in the experience of negative affect, in reactivity to negative events, and in the tendency to avoid threats. In this thesis, such traits (i.e., neuroticism and dispositional avoidance motivation) are jointly referred to as trait avoidance motivation. The seven studies presented here examined the moderators of such traits in predicting risk judgments, negatively biased processing, and adjustment. Given that trait avoidance motivation encompasses reactivity to negative events and tendency to avoid threats, it can be considered surprising that this trait does not seem to be related to risk judgments and that it seems to be inconsistently related to negatively biased information processing. Previous work thus suggests that some variable(s) moderate these relations. Furthermore, recent research has suggested that despite the close connection between trait avoidance motivation and (mal)adjustment, measures of cognitive performance may moderate this connection. However, it is unclear whether this moderation is due to different response processes between individuals with different cognitive tendencies or abilities, or to the genuinely buffering effect of high cognitive ability against the negative consequences of high trait avoidance motivation. Studies 1-3 showed that there is a modest direct relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments, but studies 2-3 demonstrated that state motivation moderates this relation. In particular, individuals in an avoidance state made high risk judgments regardless of their level of trait avoidance motivation. This result explained the disparity between the theoretical conceptualization of avoidance motivation and the results of previous studies suggesting that the relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments is weak or nonexistent. Studies 5-6 examined threat identification tendency as a moderator for the relationship between trait avoidance motivation and negatively biased processing. However, no evidence for such moderation was found. Furthermore, in line with previous work, the results of studies 5-6 suggested that trait avoidance motivation is inconsistently related to negatively biased processing, implying that theories concerning traits and information processing may need refining. Study 7 examined cognitive ability as a moderator for the relation between trait avoidance motivation and adjustment, and demonstrated that cognitive ability moderates the relation between trait avoidance motivation and indicators of both self-reported and objectively measured adjustment. Thus, the results of Study 7 supported the buffer explanation for the moderating influence of cognitive performance. To summarize, the results showed that it is possible to find factors that consistently moderate the relations between traits and important outcomes (e.g. adjustment). Identifying such factors and studying their interplay with traits is one of the most important goals of current personality research. The present thesis contributed to this line of work in relation to trait avoidance motivation.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Early childhood profiles of sleep problems and self-regulation predict later school adjustment

Background Children’s sleep problems and self-regulation problems have been independently associated with poorer adjustment to school, but there has been limited exploration of longitudinal early childhood profiles that include both indicators. Aims This study explores the normative developmental pathway for sleep problems and self-regulation across early childhood, and investigates whether departure from the normative pathway is associated with later social-emotional adjustment to school. Sample This study involved 2880 children participating in the Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) – Infant Cohort from Wave 1 (0-1 years) to Wave 4 (6-7 years). Method Mothers reported on children’s sleep problems, emotional, and attentional self-regulation at three time points from birth to 5 years. Teachers reported on children’s social-emotional adjustment to school at 6-7 years. Latent profile analysis was used to establish person-centred longitudinal profiles. Results Three profiles were found. The normative profile (69%) had consistently average or higher emotional and attentional regulation scores and sleep problems that steadily reduced from birth to 5. The remaining 31% of children were members of two non-normative self-regulation profiles, both characterised by escalating sleep problems across early childhood and below mean self-regulation. Non-normative group membership was associated with higher teacher-reported hyperactivity and emotional problems, and poorer classroom self-regulation and prosocial skills. Conclusion Early childhood profiles of self-regulation that include sleep problems offer a way to identify children at risk of poor school adjustment. Children with escalating early childhood sleep problems should be considered an important target group for school transition interventions.

Perceived maternal psychological control and school adjustment in Chinese adolescents: Associations, mediations and moderations

This study aimed to examine the complicated process involved in the influence of parental psychological control on academic self-concept and academic performance in Chinese adolescents. The study considered possible mediating and moderating factors that might influence the relationships of interest. Findings of this study suggested that perceived maternal psychological control was related to adolescents' academic self-concept, and the relationship was mediated by adolescents' satisfaction on basic psychological needs. No statistically significant association was found between perceived maternal psychological control and adolescents' academic performance, instead, the relationship was moderated by adolescent age.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.