978 resultados para Situations probabilistes


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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

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Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

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Dissertação de Mestrado realizada sob a apresentada no Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção de grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica.

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This study consists of the reflection on a consultancy project developed by four students and one project manager from NOVA SBE. In attempting to assist Galp Energia structure the operationalization of an entry into Social Media, we were confronted with first-time challenges in real-life highly demanding workplace situations. The following considerations attempt to defuse the problem-solving mindset of the practical experience from the methodological development and learning experience extracted from the consulting line of work

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Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

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This paper extends the model of Spolaore (2004) about adjustments in di erent government systems for the context of scal adjustments and sovereign default. We introduce asymmetry between groups in income and preferences towards scal reforms. Default a ects di erently each group and becomes a possibility if reforms are not enacted after public nance solvency shocks, in uencing the political game according to its likelihood. With the extensions, new situations which were not possible with the previous framework arise. After the exposition of the model, the Argentine default in 2001 provides an example of the political con icts addressed by the model.

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Based on bibliographical research and the analysis of court rulings, this study investigates the characterization of slave-like labor by Brazilian courts. After the alteration of article 149 of the Brazilian Penal Code, introduced by Law nº 10.803/2003, which typifies the practice of contemporary slavery in Brazil, divergent characterizations of this practice remain. The courts currently employ the broadest concept of contemporary slave labor, in which the crime is characterized by the engagement in one of the following conducts established as a criminal offense: labor with the restriction of freedom, submission to exhaustive working conditions, degrading working conditions, and debt bondage. The engagement in one of the above is therefore enough to constitute a crime. Contemporary slave labor in Brazil is not characterized only by the restriction of the worker’s freedom, as in the case of forced labor or debt bondage, but also through the submission of the workers to situations that offend their human dignity. Individual freedom and the dignity of the human person, fundamental tenets of the Brazilian Federal Constitution, are juridical resources safeguarded by law. Contemporary slavery is not limited to the mere infringement of labor laws, but represents a severe violation of the human rights of the workers involved.

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The aim of the present dissertation is the analysis of the regime established by Decree-Law No. 227/2012 of 25 October. Reflecting on the referred regime, as a measure to prevent and manage situations of failure to meet the obligations assumed by consumers, the study focuses on the plan of action for debt risk and the extrajudicial procedure to regularize situations of default. The main point is to analyze the purpose and the scope of the regime, and to discuss some key-concepts relevant to its application. In addition, another two figures presented in the regime of Decree-Law No. 227/2012 are considered, namely: the Credit Mediator and the Extrajudicial Network for Bank Clients Support, making reference to their role and the scope of their intervention. Finally, along the work on the present Decree-Law, the some international practices are also analyzed, making reference to the problem of financial illiteracy, and mentioning three foreign examples regarding the adopted solutions to the problem of different legal systems, with reference to consumers’ over-indebtedness.

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Currently, gambling doesn’t have a strong social disapproval. However, the phenomenon of gambling raises several issues related to property protection, compulsive gambling, the youngest personality development, the State taxes and social development measures, which some authors believe to be the protected legal interest in the criminalization of illegal gambling exploitation. However, the authorization system, and because several of those interests, constitutionally protected, are also violated in the authorized gambling places, it appears that the legislator intended to define the legal interest as the order and public tranquility. The purpose of this study is to understand what is protected with the illegal gambling exploitation. This will involve defining the concept of exploitation and the concept of gambling. Still, we will try to know if there are situations without ethical and social resonance and what their consequences.

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In order to address and resolve the wastewater contamination problem of the Sines refinery with the main objective of optimizing the quality of this stream and reducing the costs charged to the refinery, a dynamic mass balance was developed nd implemented for ammonia and polar oil and grease (O&G) contamination in the wastewater circuit. The inadequate routing of sour gas from the sour water stripping unit and the kerosene caustic washing unit, were identified respectively as the major source of ammonia and polar substances present in the industrial wastewater effluent. For the O&G content, a predictive model was developed for the kerosene caustic washing unit, following the Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) approach. Comparison between analytical data for ammonia and polar O&G concentrations in refinery wastewater originating from the Dissolved Air Flotation (DAF) effluent and the model predictions of the dynamic mass balance calculations are in a very good agreement and highlights the dominant impact of the identified streams for the wastewater contamination levels. The ammonia contamination problem was solved by rerouting the sour gas through an existing clogged line with ammonia salts due to a non-insulated line section, while for the O&G a dynamic mass balance was implemented as an online tool, which allows for prevision of possible contamination situations and taking the required preventive actions, and can also serve as a basis for establishing relationships between the O&G contamination in the refinery wastewater with the properties of the refined crude oils and the process operating conditions. The PLS model developed could be of great asset in both optimizing the existing and designing new refinery wastewater treatment units or reuse schemes. In order to find a possible treatment solution for the spent caustic problem, an on-site pilot plant experiments for NaOH recovery from the refinery kerosene caustic washing unit effluent using an alkaline-resistant nanofiltration (NF) polymeric membrane were performed in order to evaluate its applicability for treating these highly alkaline and contaminated streams. For a constant operating pressure and temperature and adequate operating conditions, 99.9% of oil and grease rejection and 97.7% of chemical oxygen demand (COD) rejection were observed. No noticeable membrane fouling or flux decrease were registered until a volume concentration factor of 3. These results allow for NF permeate reuse instead of fresh caustic and for significant reduction of the wastewater contamination, which can result in savings of 1.5 M€ per year at the current prices for the largest Portuguese oil refinery. The capital investments needed for implementation of the required NF membrane system are less than 10% of those associated with the traditional wet air oxidation solution of the spent caustic problem. The operating costs are very similar, but can be less than half if reusing the NF concentrate in refinery pH control applications. The payback period was estimated to be 1.1 years. Overall, the pilot plant experimental results obtained and the process economic evaluation data indicate a very competitive solution through the proposed NF treatment process, which represents a highly promising alternative to conventional and existing spent caustic treatment units.

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Foreign body aspiration (FBA) is one of leading causes of death in children, especially among those younger than 3 years of age. The inhalation of a foreign body may cause a wide variety of symptoms, and early diagnosis is highly associated with the successful removal of the inhaled foreign material. Despite the great advances in endoscopic procedures and anesthesia, a large number of difficulties and complications still result from foreign body aspiration. We describe 5 cases of serious acute complications following aspiration of foreign bodies that became lodged in the tracheobronchial tree, including pneumomediastinum, pneumothorax, total atelectasis, foreign body dislodgment, and need for thoracotomy in children admitted into our intensive care unit in 1999 and 2000; these were all situations that could have been prevented with early recognition and prompt therapeutic intervention.

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After reading about the current legal regime regarding the foreign workers we realize the high relevance this area has, nevertheless the research about these issues has been lying somewhat stagnant in Portugal, particularly as it refers to non-EU citizens. At a time when we witness a progressive increase of the migratory movements we propose ourselves, in this study, to understand more clearly the current legal system in the matter of foreign worker rights, and, from a pragmatic point of view, to question some choices of the legislator in order to understand if these serves to the best protection of the rights and duties of the foreign workers and the new situations arising from this phenomenon, considering any system weaknesses. However, we realize that much remains to be done in this field, both in terms of true equal rights between nationals and foreigners, and either as what regards to an effort to harmonize these issues by the States, which tend to favor national sovereignty and its economic interests rather than protecting the fundamental rights of workers.

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PURPOSE: Enteral alimentation is the preferred modality of support in critical patients who have acceptable digestive function and are unable to eat orally, but the advantages of continuous versus intermittent administration are surrounded by controversy. With the purpose of identifying the benefits and complications of each technique, a prospective controlled study with matched subjects was conducted. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty-eight consecutive candidates for enteral feeding were divided into 2 groups (n = 14 each) that were matched for diagnosis and APACHE II score. A commercial immune-stimulating polymeric diet was administered via nasogastric tube by electronic pump in the proportion of 25 kcal/kg/day, either as a 1-hour bolus every 3 hours (Group I), or continuously for 24 hours (Group II), over a 3-day period. Anthropometrics, biochemical measurements, recording of administered drugs and other therapies, thorax X-ray, measurement of abdominal circumference, monitoring of gastric residue, and clinical and nutritional assessments were performed at least once daily. The principal measured outcomes of this protocol were frequency of abdominal distention and pulmonary aspiration, and efficacy in supplying the desired amount of nutrients. RESULTS: Nearly half of the total population (46.4%) exhibited high gastric residues on at least 1 occasion, but only 1 confirmed episode of pulmonary aspiration occurred (3.6%). Both groups displayed a moderate number of complications, without differences. Food input during the first day was greater in Group II (approximately 20% difference), but by the third day, both groups displayed similarly small deficits in total furnished volume of about 10%, when compared with the prescribed diet. CONCLUSIONS: Both administration modalities permitted practical and effective administration of the diet with frequent registered abnormalities but few clinically significant problems. The two groups were similar in this regard, without statistical differences, probably because of meticulous technique, careful monitoring, strict patient matching, and conservative amounts of diet employed in both situations. Further studies with additional populations, diagnostic groups, and dietetic prescriptions should be performed in order to elucidate the differences between these commonly used feeding modalities.

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Worldwide, the impact of meningococcal disease is substantial, and the potential for the introduction and spread of more virulent strains of N. meningitidis or strains with increased resistance to current antibiotics causes concern, making prevention essential. OBJECTIVES: Review the indications for meningococcal disease vaccines, considering the epidemiological status in Brazil. METHODS: A critical literature review on this issue using the Medline and Lilacs databases. RESULTS: In Brazil, MenB and MenC were the most important serogroups identified in the 1990s. Polysaccharide vaccines available against those serogroups can offer only limited protection for infants, the group at highest risk for meningococcal disease. Additionally, polysaccharide vaccines may induce a hypo-responsive state to MenC. New meningococcal C conjugate vaccines could partially solve these problems, but it is unlikely that in the next few years a vaccine against MenB that can promote good protection against multiple strains of MenB responsible for endemic and epidemic diseases will become available. CONCLUSIONS: In order to make the best decision about recommendations on immunization practices, better quality surveillance data are required. In Brazil, MenC was responsible for about 2,000 cases per year during the last 10 years. New conjugate vaccines against MenC are very effective and immunogenic, and they should be recommended, especially for children less than 5 years old. Polysaccharide vaccines should be indicated only in epidemic situations and for high-risk groups. Until new vaccines against MenC and MenB are available for routine immunization programs, the most important measure for controlling meningococcal disease is early diagnosis of these infections in order to treat patients and to offer chemoprophylaxis to contacts.

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Study of the problems involved in the application of the right of refusal to testify (Article 134. º CPP) to criminal charges of domestic violence, namely in situations of violence between spouses. Drawing attention, to some of the contingencies of the exercise of the right of refusal in such proceedings, a matter never before examined under Portuguese law, and also to the need to reconsider, based on the North American experience, the application of the law in these cases.