Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Structural invariance of multiple intelligences, based on the level of execution

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Evaluation of five guidelines for option development in multiple-choice item-writing. 'Evaluaci??n de cinco directrices para la construcci??n de opciones en ??tems de elecci??n m??ltiple'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Executive function and memory in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. 'Funci??n ejecutiva y memoria en pacientes con esclerosis m??ltiple recurrente-remitente'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Neptune: a hil simulator for multiple UUVs

This paper overviews the field of graphical simulators used for AUV development, presents the taxonomy of these applications and proposes a classification. It also presents Neptune, a multivehicle, real-time, graphical simulator based on OpenGL that allows hardware in the loop simulations

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Multiple Integration

Exercises and solutions on double integration. Diagrams for the questions are all together in the support.zip file, as .eps files

Combining multiple files in to a single PDF file using Adobe Pro X

This video shows you how to create a single PDF file combining the contents of several files. The steps relate to using Adobe Pro X. For best viewing Download the file.

Combining multiple files in to a single PDF file using Adobe Acrobat XI Pro

This video shows you how to create a single PDF file combining the contents of several files. The steps relate to using Adobe Acrobat XI Pro which can be accessed in any of the University's workstation rooms or can be installed from the Additional Software folder on a staff desktop. For best viewing Download the file.

Comparación entre analgesia epidural continua vs bloqueo nervio periférico en niños llevados a cirugía múltiple de miembros inferiores

Las cirugías reconstructivas múltiples de miembros inferiores son intervenciones quirúrgicas que implican un difícil manejo analgésico en el postoperatorio, actualmente la técnica analgésica usada es la analgesia peridural; sin embargo los efectos adversos asociados a esta no la hacen una técnica ideal para manejo de dolor. Los bloqueos de nervio periférico han aparecido como una alternativa para el manejo del dolor; pero no se ha difundido ampliamente su uso. Se pretende evaluar la disminución de efectos adversos con el uso de bloqueos de nervio periférico sobre la analgesia epidural. Este estudio piloto inicial se realizo para verificar efectividad técnicas a usar y problemas que se pudieran presentar. Se aplico el protocolo en 23 pacientes que fueron llevados a cirugía de miembros inferiores, se dividieron en 2 grupos 11 recibieron bloqueos de nervio periférico y 12 analgesia epidural. Se les realizo seguimiento por 48 horas y se evaluó el control del dolor, consumo de opioides y efectos adversos. El tiempo de colocación del bloqueo fue similar en ambos grupos, el grupo de bloqueos presento menos episodios de dolor y menos episodios de dolor severo. No se presento retención urinaria en ningún paciente pero en el grupo de epidural se presento mayor incidencia de nausea y vomito (60% vs 45%). Se encontró que los bloqueos de nervio periférico son una adecuada opción para el manejo del dolor en este tipo de cirugías; y al parecer disminuye la incidencia de eventos adversos asociados a la analgesia epidural.

The multiple autoimmune syndromes. A clue for the autoimmune tautology

The multiple autoimmune syndromes (MAS) consist on the presence of three or more well-defined autoimmune diseases (ADs) in a single patient. The aim of this study was to analyze the clinical and genetic characteristics of a large series of patients with MAS. A cluster analysis and familial aggregation analysis of ADs was performed in 84 patients. A genome-wide microsatellite screen was performed in MAS families, and associated loci were investigated through the pedigree disequilibrium test. Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD), and Sjögren's syndrome together were the most frequent ADs encountered. Three main clusters were established. Aggregation for type 1 diabetes, AITD, SLE, and all ADs as a trait was found. Eight loci associated with MAS were observed harboring autoimmunity genes. The MAS represent the best example of polyautoimmunity as well as the effect of a single genotype on diverse phenotypes. Its study provides important clues to elucidate the common mechanisms of ADs (i.e., autoimmune tautology). © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012.

Distribution patterns of infection with multiple types of human papillomaviruses and their association with risk factors

Background: Infection with multiple types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the main risk factors associated with the development of cervical lesions. In this study, cervical samples collected from 1,810 women with diverse sociocultural backgrounds, who attended to their cervical screening program in different geographical regions of Colombia, were examined for the presence of cervical lesions and HPV by Papanicolau testing and DNA PCR detection, respectively. Principal Findings: The negative binomial distribution model used in this study showed differences between the observed and expected values within some risk factor categories analyzed. Particularly in the case of single infection and coinfection with more than 4 HPV types, observed frequencies were smaller than expected, while the number of women infected with 2 to 4 viral types were higher than expected. Data analysis according to a negative binomial regression showed an increase in the risk of acquiring more HPV types in women who were of indigenous ethnicity (+37.8%), while this risk decreased in women who had given birth more than 4 times (-31.1%), or were of mestizo (-24.6%) or black (-40.9%) ethnicity. Conclusions: According to a theoretical probability distribution, the observed number of women having either a single infection or more than 4 viral types was smaller than expected, while for those infected with 2-4 HPV types it was larger than expected. Taking into account that this study showed a higher HPV coinfection rate in the indigenous ethnicity, the role of underlying factors should be assessed in detail in future studies.

Mnesic performance and executive functions in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS)

The Episodic Memory (EM) and the Executive Functions (EF) are cognitive areas that are affected in patients with diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Nowadays there exists scarce works destined to explore the infl uence of the EF on measures of mnesic performance in MS. For this reason, we analyze the effect of the EF on the performance in a set of memory measures. We worked with a clinical group (n=36) and with a control group (n=36) compared by age and educational level. The results show that the clinical group obtained significantly low average values in all the mnesic indexes (with exception of recognition) and in all the executive measures. All the executive indexes showed significant associations with some of the indexes of mnesic performance. These findings suggest that the problems in the episodic memory in EM patients could be analyzed as the manifestation of a global disorder that could be similar to the one that involves the EF. 

Multiple sclerosis: evidence and controversies

Introduction: Multiple sclerosis is a chronic recurrent inflammatory disorder of the central nervous system. The pharmacological treatment of multiple sclerosis has been evaluated with multiple controlled clinical trials that allow the clinician to count with evidence based information to decide the more indicated treatment for each patient. Methodology: A review of the scientific literature was conducted to clarify controversial issues in a clinical relevant topic. Development: The diagnostic criteria and different treatments available are reviewed, in order to consider the clinical utility of the disease modifying agents such as the immunomodulatory treatments. The three used types of interferon are well tolerated and reduce in approximately a third the number of bouts in the remitent recurrent form; there is no significant difference between the three of them.

El trabajo en equipo en el Proceso Administrativo y de Compras en OPL Carga de Bucaramanga

El proceso administrativo y de compras de OPL Carga tiene algunas falencias entre ellas: fallas en la Comunicación entre el personal operativo, no se realizan llamadas internas usando con frecuencia el email, produciendo la saturación de solicitudes las cuales terminan sin ser resueltas en cuanto a roles se refiere, no hay enfoque de procesos en vista que no se tiene claras las tareas de cada cargo, adicionalmente no hay claridad en los subprocesos, perjudicando el proceso con el aumento de costos, pérdida de tiempo, las responsabilidades de los funcionario no todas las veces se ejecutan en el tiempo asignado, el liderazgo compartido presenta ambigüedades. Objetivos: Definir el trabajo en equipo en el proceso administrativo y de compras en OPL carga de Bucaramanga. La investigación que a realizar es de tipo descriptivo, busca descubrir las falencias o características que permiten diseñar y desarrollar un modelo de solución para los problemas del equipo de OPL Carga S.A.S. Materiales y métodos: La investigación efectuada es de tipo descriptivo, el objetivo es definir el modelo del trabajo en equipo y describir las falencias en el proceso administrativo y de compras en OPL carga de Bucaramanga, que permitan obtener un diagnóstico integral que conlleve a la implementación de estrategias de solución. Resultados: Se identificaron las falencias en los siguientes aspectos: Variable comunicación, rendimiento, destrezas complementarias, propósito significativo y meta específicas de los funcionarios en OPL carga sección administrativa. Conclusiones: El modelo de trabajo en equipo que OPL aplica es jerárquico, en el que se ofrece estabilidad, seguridad, se toman decisiones en forma piramidal, mediante la planeación de tareas, la colaboración, igualdad y respeto por los miembros, trabajando en pro de la solución de problemas. Se construyó un plano conceptual que permitió exponer la interpretación que la estudiante tiene de las teorías, investigaciones y antecedentes válidos para la comprensión del problema investigado. Área comunicacional: Coordinar acciones tendientes para que los funcionarios respondan a tiempo los emails atenientes a su trabajo. Área condiciones de trabajo: Clarificar y diseñar las reglas de comportamiento al interior de los equipos de trabajo que redunden en el mejoramiento del mismo y la búsqueda de soluciones oportunas. Área metas específicas: Procurar mediante auditorías el cumplimiento de las metas y objetivos propuestos por cada equipo de trabajo.