A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modern changes of tidal troughs among the radial sand ridges in northern Jiangsu coastal zone

Using satellite images taken on different dates, GIS analysis of aerial photos, bathymetric maps and other field survey data, tidal troughs and major sand ridges in the northern Jiangsu coastal area were contrasted. The results show that there have been three types of movement or migration of tidal trough in this area: (1) Periodic and restricted, this type of trough usually developed along the beaches with immobile gully head as a result of the artificial dams and the swing range increased from gully head to the low reaches, so they have been obviously impacted by human activity and have longer swing periods; (2) Periodic and actively, this kind of trough, which swung with a fast rate and moved periodically on sand ridges, were mainly controlled by the swings of the host tidal troughs and hydrodynamic forces upon tidal sand ridge and influenced slightly by human constructions; (3) Steadily and slowly, they are the main tidal troughs with large scale and a steady orientation in this area and have slow lateral movement. The differences in migration mode of tidal trough shift result in different rates of migration and impact upon tidal sand ridges. Lateral accumulation on current tidal trough and deposition on abandoned tidal troughs are the two types of sedimentation of the tidal sand ridges formation. The whole radial sand ridge was generally prone to division and retreat although sand ridges fluctuated by the analysis of changes in talwegs of tidal troughs and shorelines of sand ridges.

古龙咀周围海区沉积物粒度特征及海底地形变化

对古龙咀周围浅海区沉积物的粒度进行了测试与分析，结合相关的地质水文资料，探讨了海岸形态对沉积物粒度的影响。研究区表层沉积物平均粒径在海湾浅海区呈带状由岸向海变细，中等水深和岬角处分布着细粒区，向外海粒径相对变粗；除险岛湾砂质区外，分选差；偏态多数为正偏或近正态；整体峰形极窄，峰型多样。底质类型以粘土质粉砂和砂质粉砂为主，由东北经古龙咀岬角向西南形成S形粘土质粉砂分布带，险岛湾地区沉积物呈带状由砂逐渐过渡到粉砂。潮汐和波浪是本区沉积物输运的主要水动力，岬角的存在影响了沉积物粒度的分布。粒度趋势分析表明沉积物整体有向岬角汇聚的输运趋势。 对收集到基于1954年、1969年、1982年测量绘成的地形图水深数据进行数字化，结合2005年测量的水深数据，分别建立各时期DEM图，在此基础上分析研究区的地形特征。四个时期海底DEM呈现出大体一致的趋势，在险岛湾及白沙口海湾内为浅水区，水深值在-1～-4 m之间，深水区主要分布在南黄岛南端至古龙咀连线以南区域，呈扇形展布，水深由南黄岛两侧向中间逐渐加深，水深值在-10～ -17 m之间。从整体上看，研究区海底地形呈NW-SE方向逐渐加深。 将数字化后的水深数据统一校正到1956黄海高程系，分别建立DEM，运用GIS的栅格计算分析得出冲淤变化图。相关结果表明：1954～1969年研究区整体近岸为冲（险岛湾除外），离岸海域为淤；1969～1982年研究区总体处于弱淤积状态；1982-2005研究区海域近岸为淤，外海以弱冲刷状态为主。

基于Geodatabase和Arcengine的海岛空间数据库的设计与实现

本文对山东省海岛进行了研究，认识了山东省不同地区海岛的自然环境、资源和开发利用的总体状况。通过对大量的海岛调查资料的整理、分析，提出了利用Geodatabase数据模型构建山东省海岛空间数据库来组织和存储海岛数据的方案，采用GIS软件平台ArcEngine和程序开发语言研发山东省海岛管理信息系统。 山东省是我国海岛资源比较丰富的省份。从整体来看，山东省海岛地理位置优越，气候条件好，海岛类型分为基岩岛、沙岛和人工岛，其中大部分海岛为基岩岛，沙岛主要分布在黄河三角洲北侧的滨州和潍坊昌邑。山东省海岛拥有丰富的渔业资源、水产资源、旅游资源、土地资源、港口资源、地下卤水资源、贝壳砂资源等，依据这些资源优势，海岛的开发也集中在养殖业开发、旅游开发、港口资源开发等。 Geodatabase数据模型能够有效地定义、组织空间数据，ArcSDE技术提供了空间数据存储在商业关系型数据库的通道，Geodatabase数据模型和ArcSDE技术使得使用同一大型的关系型数据库统一存储空间数据和属性数据成为可能。本文采用Geodatabase数据模型、ArcSDE技术、SQL Server数据库，设计了海岛数据的统一存储和管理模型，通过数据处理和入库建立了山东省海岛空间数据库。 本文还基于GIS软件平台ArcEngine组件和程序开发语言VB.NET完成了山东省海岛管理信息系统的开发。该系统实现了海岛数据的访问和加载、海岛地图的显示和操作、海岛数据的多种方式的查询显示、地图的几何量算功能以及海岛专题资料的集成与综合分析，同时系统也提供数据图层的标注、图层颜色的设置，图层的移动、删除功能。这些功能的实现对山东省海岛的开发、管理提供了有用的平台，为决策部门提供服务。

南黄海辐射沙洲海区悬沙及沙洲演变的遥感研究

本文利用南黄海辐射沙洲附近海域现场测量的悬浮体和光谱数据、遥感影像、沙洲陆侧岸滩剖面实测资料、苏北近岸海图水深数据，综合分析了本区文献资料，借助遥感影像处理和GIS技术较为深入地研究南黄海辐射沙洲附近海域悬浮泥沙的时空分布规律、沙洲陆侧岸滩剖面的近期变化以及沙洲区潮沟的变迁。研究结果表明： 1) 南黄海辐射沙洲附近海域2003年春季（3-4月）悬浮体浓度要高于2003年秋季（9月），两个季节都是底层悬浮体浓度大于表层；长江口-老黄河口之间的近岸区是本区悬浮体浓度最高的区域；陆源物质为主的无机组分是悬浮体的主体成分，特别是在近岸浅水区和接近海底的底层水中；春秋两季的表层和底层悬浮体平均粒径都是沙洲区内粒度较粗，沙洲外缘粒度相对偏细。2) 基于悬浮泥沙水体光谱特性以及实测光谱反射率与水体中的悬浮泥沙浓度之间的关系，建立了表层悬浮泥沙浓度遥感反演模型，并以此为基础定量反演了南黄海辐射沙洲附近海域2003年四个季节的表层悬沙浓度。3) 近岸沙洲岸滩剖面实测数据分析表明，条子泥陆侧岸滩剖面的季节变化特点是春夏季以侵蚀为主，秋冬季以淤积为主；东沙沙脊两侧边缘以侵蚀为主，而沙脊中央则以淤积为主。4) 研究了辐射沙洲区内大型潮沟及岸滩小型潮沟的变迁规律，并揭示了潮沟变迁与沙洲演化的关系。5) 辐射沙洲的演变趋势整体上处于萎缩和破碎状态。

现代黄河三角洲地区地面沉降特征研究

针对目前现代黄河三角洲地区普遍存在的地面沉降问题，本文以整个现代黄河三角洲平原地区为研究对象，通过收集的重复性水准测量数据、遥感影像、渤海海底及三角洲平原沉积物物理力学数据、长期验潮站数据以及前人文献数据等资料，综合运用雷达差分干涉测量技术（D-InSAR）、工程地质学、GIS和随机动态分析方法，探讨了现代黄河三角洲地区近期地面沉降的现状，并对其自然因素影响下的形成与发展过程进行了综合分析，最后探讨了地面沉降对三角洲发育演化的环境地质效应。 研究结果表明：现代黄河三角洲在以宁海为顶点的河口扇形区域，近期均经历了不同程度的地表下沉过程，但是随区域地理位置和时间的不同，地表变化空间差异性比较明显；三角洲顶点附近区域的下沉速率自上世纪末开始逐渐减小，后期甚至出现轻微的抬升；滨海沿岸附近地区的地表形变特征相对比较复杂，各期叶瓣相互叠置及其各类沉积物的不均匀分配，使由沉积物自然固结压实引起的地表形变具有显著的空间差异；目前，除清水沟流路叶瓣表现为快速沉降以外，其它滨海沿岸区基本上都表现为微弱的下沉。自然状态下三角洲平原的地面沉降分布主要受中―高压缩性软土层和黏性土层固结沉降的控制，分别占沉积物总固结沉降量的40～95%和3～12%（或30～50%）。三角洲平原区沉积层的自重固结沉降已进入后期缓慢沉降阶段，软弱土层的性质及厚度是控制本区不均匀沉降的主导因素。黄河新近沉积物的自重应力对海底浅层沉积物和前三角洲沉积层的固结压缩影响较大，特别是海底淤泥和淤泥质土层在受压初期会发生快速固结压缩，足以引起明显的地表下沉。近几十年来，因区域构造运动和均衡运动引起的地表绝对下沉速率约为3.42 mm/a。该区地面沉降的时空差异性及其在相对海平面上升中的叠加作用，不仅关系到三角洲的垂向发育过程，且对黄河尾闾的摆动、下游河道的淤积、海岸侵蚀和潮滩冲刷等方面都有着重要的影响。

青岛市区辐射环境质量评价

安全环境是人类赖以生存的基础，天然放射性辐射环境是人类生存环境的重要组成部分，放射性物质存在于各类物质中，包括空气、水源和土壤等。放射性物质的辐射对环境的影响往往被人们所忽视，但又是最危险的环境影响因素。为了生存和健康不仅需要了解重金属和有机物污染，而且需要了解辐射污染。 天然放射性辐射环境与该区域内的地质环境密切相关。青岛地区燕山期岩浆活动频繁，形成了以钾长花岗岩和二长花岗岩为主的大规模侵入岩体，大多数母岩为富含铀、钍的花岗岩。本论文选择青岛地区做为放射性的研究区，该花岗岩地区与放射性核素的辐射强度的关系具有典型的代表性。 论文在大量密集测量地表岩石、土壤γ总量、土壤中238U、232Th 、40K放射性核素的含量基础上，分析了天然放射性辐射环境与该区域内的地质环境. 分析了环境中氡的来源及迁移机制，给出了氡的运移理论模型，指出了环境中氡的危害及其土壤中的分布与地质环境的关系。分别从内照射和外照射的角度，将土壤中238U (226Ra) 、232Th 、40K放射性核素的比活度、γ能量谱、环境中的氡浓度和直接测量空气中的吸收剂量率相结合，首次对青岛地区的辐射环境进行了研究和评价，可为奥运和青岛市长远发展提供科学保障。 结果表明研究区内土壤中的238U含量低于全国及世界平均值，土壤中232Th含量分别是全国和世界均值含量的1.1和1.5倍, 土壤中40K含量分别是全国和世界均值含量的2.43和2.44倍，因此空气中的吸收剂量率高于全国（81.5nGy•h-1）和世界（80 nGy•h-1）约1.2倍。通过能谱估算的空气吸收剂量率与实际测量值近似相等。研究区的年有效剂量为0.83 mSv，低于世界平均年有效外部照射的剂量限值1.0mSv，外照射指数和内照射指数均小于1，该区的等效镭浓度Raeq均值为197 Bq•kg-1，低于建议最大容许值370 Bq•kg-1，基于以上的各类指标均在世界均值或容许值范围内，可以认为该区的外照射水平属于安全辐射范畴。 222Rn浓度对人体内部照射具有举足轻重的地位，也是评价辐射环境质量的关键所在。本文采用经典的氡在空气中的扩散和对流的理论模式，通过研究区内的土壤中铀的含量推算出离地面1米高的空气中的氡的浓度，并且分析了土壤中的氡浓度与土壤中的放射性核素U、Th、K的含量的关系。研究区的土壤氡浓度总体平均值为5887Bq/m3，与全球土壤氡浓度的平均值7400 Bq/m3相比属于土壤氡浓度正常地区。由于青岛市区土壤覆盖层很薄,地表储气条件较差，造成土壤氡逸散。因此除区内土壤氡浓度几处偏高区以的其他区域，甚至断裂带上他和其他区域的土壤氡浓度也普遍偏低。通过计算可以得出青岛市区大气中氡浓度所导致的居民室外吸入氡子体所产生的年均人有效剂量估算结果是0.94mSv/a。这与联合国辐射防护委员会公布世界平均本底值1.2mSv/a相比,此值在正常范围内。 这个地区虽然大面积出露富含放射性物质的花岗岩，由花岗岩风化形成的土壤中放射性核素含量（钍、钾）也较高，但是因为铀含量不高，另外本区临海，一年四季的风速较大，因此本地区室外和室内空气中氡浓度不高。 综上可以得出结论：本区的辐射环境属于安全区域，适于人类生活。 本论文研究成果和创新点有：首次在大量密集测量的基础上，系统地对青岛地区的辐射环境进行了研究和评价；在数据采集方面，采用直接就地测量，跟其他调查方法比，采样密度大，数据量大。从研究方法方面，本文从外照射和内照射的角度，采用了多指标相结合的综合方式来评价本区的辐射环境质量，详实可信；引入GIS技术，和放射性评价相结合，较为系统深入地探讨了放射性核素和氡浓度的分布特征及其与岩性的关系。

黄河新河口泥沙运移及淤蚀变化

黄河在自然和人为因素影响下，决口、改道频繁，1996年人工改道至清8出汊入海，使人工干预河口演变、延长河口流路使用年限成为可能。伴随着黄河入海水沙条件的变化，河海动力状况也将发生相应的改变，入海泥沙在河口的输移、沉积分布和三角洲海岸的形态必将表现出新的特征。基于此，本文依据现场水文泥沙观测资料、遥感影像和黄河口滨海区水深数据等，借助遥感图像处理技术、GIS空间分析功能和河口泥沙异重流力学计算，分析了黄河口清8出汊新河口海岸线的动态变化、河口泥沙异重流的时空演变特征及其对河口沉积的影响和清水沟流路新老口门水下三角洲的冲淤变化特征。 结果表明，河口改道初期，因水沙条件和河道的影响，河口淤积速度较快，随后几年因入海水沙逐渐减少和下游河段出现长期断流，黄河三角洲出现造陆负增长，到1999年人工统一调水后，一段时间内基本维持了口门的淤蚀动态平衡。但近几年来，河口周围又持续遭受冲刷，近岸海滩侵蚀严重。至2000年新河口泥沙净淤积10.28亿t，小于径流来沙量。由于新口门河道北偏转，受两侧潮流的作用，使得泥沙大部分淤积在口门前方，部分向河口两侧输移，且向北输移量大于向南，入海泥沙在河口沉积的空间分布上存在不均匀性。 入海泥沙以异重流的形式运移较频繁，泥沙异重流的空间分布与水下三角洲泥沙堆积体、河口沙嘴的形态存在明显相关，1996年黄河清8出汊以来，泥沙异重流的发生演变、与潮流周期的关系，以及流速的变化都表现出了新的特征。

海北高寒草甸生态系统实验站地区的土地覆盖动态变化研究

利用1987和2001年TM卫星遥感数据,在GIS的支持下对海北站土地覆盖变化进行了监测,14年来该区耕地面积增加迅速,高覆盖天然草地面积减少,中、低覆盖天然草地面积增加,湖泊、湿地萎缩,裸岩、沙地、裸土面积扩张,荒漠化程度加剧。

通量贡献区叶面积指数空间分布的测定

使用循环采样设计方案,对海北沼泽化湿地生态系统涡度相关通量观测塔的通量贡献区内叶面积指数进行了实地调查.根据样方叶面积指数的实地测量值和样方的GPS空间定位信息,利用空间插值方法绘制了通量贡献区内的叶面积指数空间分布图.并基于数字摄影与地理信息系统技术,提出了一种测量速度快、计算精度高、适合多种植物叶片叶面积测量的新方法.该方法在ArcGIS的GRID模块下对叶片图像进行格式转化和重新采样处理,使用自行编写的色阶诊断程序提取图像中叶片的叶面积.研究结果表明:此种方法叶面积测量结果与LI-3000A叶面积仪所测的结果具有很好的吻合性,两者的线性回归方程决定系数R~2为0.98,叶面积的测量精度完全可以达到实际应用中的测量要求.

青藏公路与铁路沿途1981年～2001年植被覆盖变化

在青藏公路与铁路沿途区域,利用1981年至2001年的8km分辨率PathfinderNOAA/NDVI数据,基于每个象元变化的年植被峰值计算进行了像元水平的线性趋势分析,并运用地理信息系统(GIS)软件研究了区域植被覆盖的空间分布和动态变化特征.主要结论:①在研究区内,反映植被覆盖的NDVI值在空间上呈现出两端高中间低的态势,依次是农作区和森林区＞高寒草甸＞高寒草原＞荒漠草原;②20年间,研究区植被覆盖程度变化总体趋于稳定,覆盖程度呈减少趋势的区域明显高于增加的区域,植被覆盖程度增减因区域而异;植被覆盖程度增加和显著减少地区主要分布在农作区和高寒草甸区,轻微减少地区主要分布在高寒草原和荒漠草原区;③植被覆盖变化程度在拉萨河谷地、湟水谷地和黄河流域等人类活动比较频繁的区域增减趋势比较明显;而在可可西里地区等人类活动比较少的区域变化轻微.

Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots

There is a need for methodology to warm open-field plots in order to study the likely effects of global warming on ecosystems in the future. Herein, we describe the development of arrays of more powerful and efficient infrared heaters with ceramic heating elements. By tilting the heaters at 45 degrees from horizontal and combining six of them in a hexagonal array, good uniformity of warming was achieved across 3-m-diameter plots. Moreover, there do not appear to be obstacles (other than financial) to scaling to larger plots. The efficiency [eta(h) (%); thermal radiation out per electrical energy in] of these heaters was higher than that of the heaters used in most previous infrared heater experiments and can be described by: eta(h) = 10 + 25exp(-0.17 u), where u is wind speed at 2 m height (m s(-1)). Graphs are presented to estimate operating costs from degrees of warming, two types of plant canopy, and site windiness. Four such arrays were deployed over plots of grass at Haibei, Qinghai, China and another at Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA, along with corresponding reference plots with dummy heaters. Proportional integral derivative systems with infrared thermometers to sense canopy temperatures of the heated and reference plots were used to control the heater outputs. Over month-long periods at both sites, about 75% of canopy temperature observations were within 0.5 degrees C of the set-point temperature differences between heated and reference plots. Electrical power consumption per 3-m-diameter plot averaged 58 and 80 kW h day(-1) for Haibei and Cheyenne, respectively. However, the desired temperature differences were set lower at Haibei (1.2 degrees C daytime, 1.7 degrees C night) than Cheyenne (1.5 degrees C daytime, 3.0 degrees C night), and Cheyenne is a windier site. Thus, we conclude that these hexagonal arrays of ceramic infrared heaters can be a successful temperature free-air-controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system for warming ecosystem field plots.

胜利勘探数据中心及勘探辅助决策系统研究

In the paper through extensive study and design, the technical plan for establishing the exploration database center is made to combine imported and self developed techniques. By research and repeated experiment a modern database center has been set up with its hardware and network having advanced performance, its system well configured, its data store and management complete, and its data support being fast and direct. Through study on the theory, method and model of decision an exploration decision assistant schema is designed with one decision plan of well location decision support system being evaluated and put into action. 1. Study on the establishment of Shengli exploration database center Research is made on the hardware configuration of the database center including its workstations and all connected hardware and system. The hardware of the database center is formed by connecting workstations, microcomputer workstations, disk arrays, and those equipments used for seismic processing and interpretation. Research on the data store and management includes the analysis of the contents to be managed, data flow, data standard, data QC, data backup and restore policy, optimization of database system. A reasonable data management regulation and workflow is made and the scientific exploration data management system is created. Data load is done by working out a schedule firstly and at last 200 more projects of seismic surveys has been loaded amount to 25TB. 2. Exploration work support system and its application Seismic data processing system support has the following features, automatic extraction of seismic attributes, GIS navigation, data order, extraction of any sized data cube, pseudo huge capacity disk array, standard output exchange format etc. The prestack data can be accessed by the processing system or data can be transferred to other processing system through standard exchange format. For supporting seismic interpretation system the following features exist such as auto scan and store of interpretation result, internal data quality control etc. the interpretation system is connected directly with database center to get real time support of seismic data, formation data and well data. Comprehensive geological study support is done through intranet with the ability to query or display data graphically on the navigation system under some geological constraints. Production management support system is mainly used to collect, analyze and display production data with its core technology on the controlled data collection and creation of multiple standard forms. 3. exploration decision support system design By classification of workflow and data flow of all the exploration stages and study on decision theory and method, target of each decision step, decision model and requirement, three concept models has been formed for the Shengli exploration decision support system including the exploration distribution support system, the well location support system and production management support system. the well location decision support system has passed evaluation and been put into action. 4. Technical advance Hardware and software match with high performance for the database center. By combining parallel computer system, database server, huge capacity ATL, disk array, network and firewall together to create the first exploration database center in China with reasonable configuration, high performance and able to manage the whole data sets of exploration. Huge exploration data management technology is formed where exploration data standards and management regulations are made to guarantee data quality, safety and security. Multifunction query and support system for comprehensive exploration information support. It includes support system for geological study, seismic processing and interpretation and production management. In the system a lot of new database and computer technology have been used to provide real time information support for exploration work. Finally is the design of Shengli exploration decision support system. 5. Application and benefit Data storage has reached the amount of 25TB with thousand of users in Shengli oil field to access data to improve work efficiency multiple times. The technology has also been applied by many other units of SINOPEC. Its application of providing data to a project named Exploration achievements and Evaluation of Favorable Targets in Hekou Area shortened the data preparation period from 30 days to 2 days, enriching data abundance 15 percent and getting information support from the database center perfectly. Its application to provide former processed result for a project named Pre-stack depth migration in Guxi fracture zone reduced the amount of repeated process and shortened work period of one month and improved processing precision and quality, saving capital investment of data processing of 30 million yuan. It application by providing project database automatically in project named Geological and seismic study of southern slope zone of Dongying Sag shortened data preparation time so that researchers have more time to do research, thus to improve interpretation precision and quality.

金川矿山岩体移动规律及竖井变形、破坏机理研究

The Jinchuan Nickel Mine is the largest underground mine with cut-and-fill mining in China. It is very difficult to be exploited for very low safety stability of rock mass caused by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rock mass and high stress. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement、mechanics of shaft deformation and destroy were analyzed based on the collection of date, the detailed field engineering investigations, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring result of ground surface movement, there are different ground movement characteristics among the three Mine area of Jinchuan Nickel Mine. In No. 2 Mine area, the ground movement funnel with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the up faulted block than in the down faulted block, and the centre of ground movement is moving along the up faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. Moreover, the tunnels in the corresponding area with the centre of ground movement are damaged seriously. In Longshou Mine area, the ground movement funnel is also developing, but the moving path and the nonlinear characters are more sophisticated because of the long-term effects of open excavating and the effects of underground mining together. In No. 3 Mine area, the underground mining impact on surface is not serious for the time of mining activity is not for long, but the ground movement funnel is also forming now. The underground mining has caused widespread land subsidence in Jinchuan Nickel Mine area, but the phenomena of surface raise appeared in some partial areas of Longshou Mine area and No. 3 Mine area. Analysis proved that the reason for the open pit bottom raise is the slope deformation activation caused by the excavation from open pit into underground mine; and that the raise of surface in No.3 Mine area is caused by the effect of elastic foundation due to underground mining. Although the GPS Monitoring results show the amount of subsidence is increasing constantly, the subsidence rate has a descending tendency with fluctuation in Jinchuan No. 2 Mine area. The subsidence rate curve is a time function and exists an extreme point, the rate increasing before extreme point and decreasing after the extreme point ,but the scale of decreasing rate will be very small after the rate decreasing up to a certain degree, moreover, the characteristics is different among different areas, which have some relation with the distance to the mining section and the dip of the ore body. ArcView is GIS software, which we adopted as a development platform, and made secondary development by its development language “avenue”, through which we developed a ground movement analysis and forecast System for Jinchuan Nickel Mine, which contain three modules : management of ground movement information; analysis and evaluation of ground movement; and ground movement forecast. In the module of evaluation, using the technique of MATLAB6.5 program with VB6.0, the system can achieve the ANN prediction model for GPS monitoring data, data preparation results analysis and model integrated was realized by Avenue programming. Finally, the author analyzed the mechanical of deformation and destroy of the No. 14 shaft, and its repair and artificial-support effectiveness also given detailed demonstration in various aspect. The result showed that the reason for the destroy of No. 14 shaft is underground mining, and being the case, the destroy of the shaft also has its special features, which mainly contains forked stress contour for mining steep ore and fault effect caused by mining activities. The repair and artificial-support played some restrictions on the rock mass movement and deformation, but did not show a strong or marked effect. With the increasing of mining depth and large-scale, the closure rock of the shaft will still deformed, even be destroyed.