The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE): investigating the origins of heavy precipitation in the southwestern UK

A recent field campaign in southwest England used numerical modeling integrated with aircraft and radar observations to investigate the dynamic and microphysical interactions that can result in heavy convective precipitation. The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) was a joint UK-US field campaign held during the summer of 2013 in the southwest peninsula of England, designed to study convective clouds that produce heavy rain leading to flash floods. The clouds form along convergence lines that develop regularly due to the topography. Major flash floods have occurred in the past, most famously at Boscastle in 2004. It has been suggested that much of the rain was produced by warm rain processes, similar to some flash floods that have occurred in the US. The overarching goal of COPE is to improve quantitative convective precipitation forecasting by understanding the interactions of the cloud microphysics and dynamics and thereby to improve NWP model skill for forecasts of flash floods. Two research aircraft, the University of Wyoming King Air and the UK BAe 146, obtained detailed in situ and remote sensing measurements in, around, and below storms on several days. A new fast-scanning X-band dual-polarization Doppler radar made 360-deg volume scans over 10 elevation angles approximately every 5 minutes, and was augmented by two UK Met Office C-band radars and the Chilbolton S-band radar. Detailed aerosol measurements were made on the aircraft and on the ground. This paper: (i) provides an overview of the COPE field campaign and the resulting dataset; (ii) presents examples of heavy convective rainfall in clouds containing ice and also in relatively shallow clouds through the warm rain process alone; and (iii) explains how COPE data will be used to improve high-resolution NWP models for operational use.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

BAECC: a field campaign to elucidate the impact of Biogenic Aerosols on Clouds and Climate

Observations obtained during an 8-month deployment of AMF2 in a boreal environment in Hyytiälä, Finland, and the 20-year comprehensive in-situ data from SMEAR-II station enable the characterization of biogenic aerosol, clouds and precipitation, and their interactions. During “Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC)”, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployed the ARM 2nd Mobile Facility (AMF2) to Hyytiälä, Finland, for an 8-month intensive measurement campaign from February to September 2014. The primary research goal is to understand the role of biogenic aerosols in cloud formation. Hyytiälä is host to SMEAR-II (Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations), one of the world’s most comprehensive surface in-situ observation sites in a boreal forest environment. The station has been measuring atmospheric aerosols, biogenic emissions and an extensive suite of parameters relevant to atmosphere-biosphere interactions continuously since 1996. Combining vertical profiles from AMF2 with surface-based in-situ SMEAR-II observations allow the processes at the surface to be directly related to processes occurring throughout the entire tropospheric column. Together with the inclusion of extensive surface precipitation measurements, and intensive observation periods involving aircraft flights and novel radiosonde launches, the complementary observations provide a unique opportunity for investigating aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud-to-precipitation processes, in a boreal environment. The BAECC dataset provides opportunities for evaluating and improving models of aerosol sources and transport, cloud microphysical processes, and boundary-layer structures. In addition, numerical models are being used to bridge the gap between surface-based and tropospheric observations.

Extraction of free fatty acids from peanut oil and avocado seed oil: Liquid-liquid equilibrium data at 298.2 K

The present paper reports phase equilibrium experimental data for two systems composed by peanut oil or avocado seed oil + commercial oleic acid + ethanol + water at 298.2 K and different water contents in the solvent. The addition of water to the solvent reduces the loss of neutral oil in the alcoholic phase and improves the solvent selectivity. The experimental data were correlated by the NRTL and UNIQUAC models. The global deviations between calculated and experimental values were 0.63 % and 1.08 %, respectively, for the systems containing avocado seed oil. In the case of systems containing peanut oil those deviations were 0.65 % and 0.98 %, respectively. Such results indicate that both models were able to reproduce correctly the experimental data, although the NRTL model presented a better performance.

Effect of chemical treatment on the mechanical properties, water vapour permeability and sorption isotherms of gelatin-based films

Proteins contain hydrophilic groups, which can bind to water molecules through hydrogen bridges, resulting in water vapour adsorption. An increase in the degree of cross-linking can be a method to improve the cohesiveness force and functional properties of protein-based films. Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of chemical treatment of gelatin with formaldehyde and glyoxal on the mechanical properties, water vapour permeability (WVP) and water vapour sorption characteristics of gelatin-based films. Films were produced using gelatin, with and without chemical treatment. The formaldehyde treatments caused a significant increase in the tensile strength and a reduction in the WVP of films. The Guggenheim-Anderson-De Boer and Halsey models could be used to model the sorption isotherms of films. It was observed that an increase in temperature produced a decrease in water sorption, and the chemical modifications did not affect the monolayer moisture content. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DENSITY PROFILE, VELOCITY ANISOTROPY, AND LINE-OF-SIGHT EXTERNAL CONVERGENCE OF SLACS GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

Palaeomagnetism, rock magnetism and AMS of the Cabo Magmatic Province, NE Brazil, and the opening of South Atlantic

P>Reconstruction of the South Atlantic opening has long been a matter of debate and several models have been proposed. One problem in tracing properly the Atlantic history arises from the existence of a long interval without geomagnetic reversals, the Cretaceous Normal Superchron, for which ages are difficult to assign. Palaeomagnetism may help in addressing this issue if high-quality palaeomagnetic poles are available for the two drifting continental blocks, and if precise absolute ages are available. In this work we have investigated the Cabo Magmatic Province, northeastern Brazil, recently dated at 102 +/- 1 Ma (zircon fission tracks, Ar39/Ar40). All volcanic and plutonic rocks showed stable thermal and AF demagnetization patterns, and exhibit primary magnetic signatures. AMS data also support a primary origin for the magnetic fabric and is interpreted to be contemporaneous of the rock formation. The obtained pole is located at 335.9 degrees E/87.9 degrees S (N = 24; A(95) = 2.5; K = 138) and satisfies modern quality criteria, resulting in a reference pole for South America at similar to 100 Ma. This new pole also gives an insight to test and discuss the kinematic models currently proposed for the South Atlantic opening during mid-Cretaceous.

Major gene and multifactorial inheritance of mandibular prognathism

Mandibular prognathism typically shows familial aggregation. Various genetic models have been described and it is assumed to be a multifactorial and polygenic trait, with a threshold for expression. Our goal was to examine specific genetic models of the familial transmission of this trait. The study sample comprised of 2,562 individuals from 55 families. Complete family histories for each proband were ascertained and the affection status of relatives were confirmed by lateral cephalograms, photographs, and dental models. Pedigrees were drawn using PELICAN and complex segregation analysis was performed using POINTER. Parts of some pedigrees were excluded to create one founder pedigrees, so the total N was 2,050. Analysis showed more affected females than males (P = 0.030). The majority of the pedigrees suggest autosomal dominant inheritance. Incomplete penetrance was demonstrated by the ratio of affected/unaffected parents and siblings. The heritability of mandibular prognathism was estimated to be 0.316. We conclude that there is a major gene that influences the expression of mandibular prognathism with clear signs of Mendelian inheritance and a multifactorial component. (C) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A vaccine against S. pyogenes: Design and experimental immune response

Streptococcus pyogenes causes severe invasive infections: the post-streptococcal sequelae of acute rheumatic fever (RF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), acute glomerulonephritis, and uncomplicated pharyngitis and pyoderma. Efforts to produce a vaccine against S. pyogenes began several decades ago, and different models have been proposed. Here, we describe the methodology used in the development of a new vaccine model, consisting of both T and B protective epitopes constructed as synthetic peptides and recombinant proteins. Two adjuvants were tested in an experimental inbred mouse model: a classical Freund`s adjuvant and a new adjuvant (AFCo1) that induces mucosal immune responses and is obtained by calcium precipitation of a proteoliposome derived from the outer membrane of Neisseria meningitides B. The StreptInCor vaccine epitope co-administrated with AFCo1 adjuvant induced mucosal (IgA) and systemic (IgG) antibodies as preferential Th1-mediated immune responses. No autoimmune reactions were observed, suggesting that the vaccine epitope is safe. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A linear optimization approach to the combined production planning model

Two fundamental processes usually arise in the production planning of many industries. The first one consists of deciding how many final products of each type have to be produced in each period of a planning horizon, the well-known lot sizing problem. The other process consists of cutting raw materials in stock in order to produce smaller parts used in the assembly of final products, the well-studied cutting stock problem. In this paper the decision variables of these two problems are dependent of each other in order to obtain a global optimum solution. Setups that are typically present in lot sizing problems are relaxed together with integer frequencies of cutting patterns in the cutting problem. Therefore, a large scale linear optimizations problem arises, which is exactly solved by a column generated technique. It is worth noting that this new combined problem still takes the trade-off between storage costs (for final products and the parts) and trim losses (in the cutting process). We present some sets of computational tests, analyzed over three different scenarios. These results show that, by combining the problems and using an exact method, it is possible to obtain significant gains when compared to the usual industrial practice, which solve them in sequence. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model, Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the rth moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin er al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214-223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a Simulation study and in applications to three real data sets. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transformed symmetric models

For the first time, we introduce a class of transformed symmetric models to extend the Box and Cox models to more general symmetric models. The new class of models includes all symmetric continuous distributions with a possible non-linear structure for the mean and enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several data types. The proposed methods offer more flexible alternatives to Box-Cox or other existing procedures. We derive a very simple iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood, whereas a direct unconditional maximization would be more difficult. We give simple formulae to estimate the parameter that indexes the transformation of the response variable and the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We discuss inference on the model parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated in one application to a real dataset.

Renormalization of the S parameter in holographic models of electroweak symmetry breaking

We show that the S parameter is not finite in theories of electroweak symmetry breaking in a slice of anti-de Sitter five-dimensional space, with the light fermions localized in the ultraviolet. We compute the one-loop contributions to S from the Higgs sector and show that they are logarithmically dependent on the cutoff of the theory. We discuss the renormalization of S, as well as the implications for bounds from electroweak precision measurements on these models. We argue that, although in principle the choice of renormalization condition could eliminate the S parameter constraint, a more consistent condition would still result in a large and positive S. On the other hand, we show that the dependence on the Higgs mass in S can be entirely eliminated by the renormalization procedure, making it impossible in these theories to extract a Higgs mass bound from electroweak precision constraints.

Rhyacian (2.23-2.20 Ga) juvenile accretion in the southern Sao Francisco craton, Brazil: Geochemical and isotopic evidence from the Serrinha magmatic suite, Mineiro belt

The Serrinha magmatic suite (Mineiro belt) crops out in the southern edge of the Sao Francisco craton, comprising the Brito quartz-diorite, Brumado de Cima and Brumado de Baixo granodiorites, granophyres and felsic sub-volcanic and volcanic rocks, part of which intruded into the Nazareno greenstone belt. The suite rocks have petrographic features that are consistent with magma supercooling due to the low water content combined with volatile loss, leading to crystallization of quartz and alkaline feldspar at the rims of plagioclase phenocrysts (granophyric intergrowth). The investigated rocks are sub-alkaline, calc-alkaline and show low content in rare earth elements. The U-Pb zircon crystallization ages for the Brumado de Cima granodiorite [2227 +/- 22 (23) Ma] and a coeval granophyre [2211 +/- 22 (23) Ma], coupled with available single-zircon Pb evaporation ages for the Brito and Brumado de Baixo plutons, are significantly older than the ""Minas orogeny"" (ca. 2100-2050 Ga) of Quadrilatero Ferrifero area, eastward from the Serrinha suite. Our data establish an early Rhyacian event tectonically linked with the evolution of the Mineiro belt. The bulk Nd isotopic signature [low negative to positive epsilon(Nd(t)) values] of the Serrinha samples are consistent with the important role of Paleoproterozoic mantle components in the magma genesis. The integrated geologic, geochemical and isotopic information suggests that Paleoproterozoic evolution of the Mineiro belt initiated in a passive continental margin basin with deposition of the Minas Supergroup at ca. 2500 Ma. This stage was succeeded by outboard rupture of the oceanic lithosphere with development and coalescence of progressively younger magmatic arcs during Rhyacian time. One of the earliest arcs formed the Serrinha suite. The tectonic collage of the Serrinha and Ritapolis (2190-2120 Ma) arcs produced the NE-SW Lenheiro shear zone, resulting in mylonitization and recrystallization of both the granitoid intrusions and host rocks. As a matter of fact juxtaposition of distinct magmatic units in age and origin took place along the Lenheiros structure in this sector of the Mineiro belt. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple camera people detection and tracking using support integration

This paper proposes a method to locate and track people by combining evidence from multiple cameras using the homography constraint. The proposed method use foreground pixels from simple background subtraction to compute evidence of the location of people on a reference ground plane. The algorithm computes the amount of support that basically corresponds to the ""foreground mass"" above each pixel. Therefore, pixels that correspond to ground points have more support. The support is normalized to compensate for perspective effects and accumulated on the reference plane for all camera views. The detection of people on the reference plane becomes a search for regions of local maxima in the accumulator. Many false positives are filtered by checking the visibility consistency of the detected candidates against all camera views. The remaining candidates are tracked using Kalman filters and appearance models. Experimental results using challenging data from PETS`06 show good performance of the method in the presence of severe occlusion. Ground truth data also confirms the robustness of the method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.