Why banks want to be complex

We investigate whether and how bank complexity affects performance and systemic risk. We base the analysis on a complexity measure that captures diversification and diversity, controlling for size and other bank characteristics. We find that more complex banks exhibit a higher profitability, lower risk, and higher market share. Moreover, we show an inversely U-shaped relation between bank complexity and banks’ sensitivity to systemic shocks. The evidence challenges the view that higher bank complexity is per se bad and is consistent with theoretical models that show that diversity in the banking system is critical for financial stability.

Descobrindo modelos de previsão para a inflação brasileira : uma análise a partir do algoritmo autometrics

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a capacidade preditiva de modelos econométricos de séries de tempo baseados em indicadores macroeconômicos na previsão da inflação brasileira (IPCA). Os modelos serão ajustados utilizando dados dentro da amostra e suas projeções ex-post serão acumuladas de um a doze meses à frente. As previsões serão comparadas a de modelos univariados como autoregressivo de primeira ordem - AR(1) - que nesse estudo será o benchmark escolhido. O período da amostra vai de janeiro de 2000 até agosto de 2015 para ajuste dos modelos e posterior avaliação. Ao todo foram avaliadas 1170 diferentes variáveis econômicas a cada período a ser projetado, procurando o melhor conjunto preditores para cada ponto no tempo. Utilizou-se o algoritmo Autometrics para a seleção de modelos. A comparação dos modelos foi feita através do Model Confidence Set desenvolvido por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2010). Os resultados obtidos nesse ensaio apontam evidências de ganhos de desempenho dos modelos multivariados para períodos posteriores a 1 passo à frente.

Testando a superioridade preditiva do passeio aleatório em modelos de taxa de câmbio real efetiva

O estudo busca identificar quais variáveis são as mais relevantes para previsão da taxa de câmbio real efetiva e analisar a robustez dessas previsões. Foram realizados testes de cointegração de Johansen em 13 variáveis macroeconômicas. O banco de dados utilizado são séries trimestrais e os testes foram realizados sobre as séries combinadas dois a dois, três a três e quatro a quatro. Utilizando esse método, encontramos modelos que cointegravam entre si, para os países analisados. A partir desses modelos, foram feitas previsões fora da amostra a partir das últimas 60 observações. A qualidade das previsões foi avaliada por meio dos testes de Erro Quadrático Médio (EQM) e Modelo do Conjunto de Confiança de Hansen (MCS) utilizando um modelo de passeio aleatório do câmbio real como benchmark. Todos os testes mostram que, à medida que se aumenta o horizonte de projeção, o passeio aleatório perde poder preditivo e a maioria dos modelos são mais informativos sobre o futuro da taxa de câmbio real efetivo.

Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

Relações interorganizacionais e confiança no setor da carcinicultura: um estudo de caso na camanor produtos marinhos

This study investigated how the types of confidence based on competence and good will act in the formation and maintenance of cooperation relationships between the Camanor and its partners (Aquatec, Purina, Caçuá, Uvifrios and Malta / Cleyton). It used organizational approaches on networks based primarily on studies of Powell (1987, 1990), Das and Teng (2000, 2001), Child (2001) and Contractor and Lorange (2004) which have described the advantages that cooperative relationships can provide, as well as their limits as alternative governance structures. Confidence has been considered an important factor affecting the actions and development of organizations involved in networks or in strategic alliances (ZAHEER; HARRIS, 2006) and is the most appropriate control mechanism in these situations (SYDOW, 1998). Confidence is seen from two different approaches: the economic and the sociological (ZAHEER; HARRIS, 2006). To facilitate the understanding of confidence some typologies have been created, as proposed by Barney and Hansen (1994), Lane (1998), Das and Teng (2000), Child (2001) and Wever, Martens and Vandenbempt (2005). This study made use of the case study as proposition of Yin (2005). Semi-structured interviews were held with pre-determined routes, in a single stage performed in early 2008. The research subjects were owners and / or responsible for Camanor and its business partners (Aquatec, Purina, Caçuá, Uvifrios and Malta / Cleyton). Also secondary data were collected in several sites related to the industry and enterprises studied, in addition to data collected by previous studies conducted by CARCINEREDES (2006). The primary data were analyzed using the analysing technique of the content proposed by Bardin (1994). Regarding the secondary data, they were qualitatively analyzed according to documentary analysis technique (BARDIN, 1994). Thus, through the data collected, could be concluded that although there is confidence based on good faith in relationships(UZZI, 1998; OF; TENG, 2001), their presence does not determine the formation and / or maintenance of a partnership, serves only in order to facilitate the relationship, making them more flexible. The confidence based on competence (DAS; TENG, 2001) influenced the formation and maintenance of relations studied. Because whether or not to form a relationship with another organization it is used the perception of the partner acts, namely the reputation (image) as decision basis. And it is through the verification of the performance of the partner activities that will determine the continuation of the partnership

Sistemas de informação geográfica e análise espacial de dados como ferramentas para determinação de agregação espacial de doenças: a hanseníase como modelo

This work demonstrates the importance of using tools used in geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial data analysis (SDA) for the study of infectious diseases. Analysis methods were used to describe more fully the spatial distribution of a particular disease by incorporating the geographical element in the analysis. In Chapter 1, we report the historical evolution of these techniques in the field of human health and use Hansen s disease (leprosy) in Rio Grande do Norte as an example. In Chapter 2, we introduced a few basic theoretical concepts on the methodology and classified the types of spatial data commonly treated. Chapters 3 and 4 defined and demonstrated the use of the two most important techniques for analysis of health data, which are data point processes and data area. We modelled the case distribution of Hansen s disease in the city of Mossoró - RN. In the analysis, we used R scripts and made available routines and analitical procedures developed by the author. This approach can be easily used by researchers in several areas. As practical results, major risk areas in Mossoró leprosy were detected, and its association with the socioeconomic profile of the population at risk was found. Moreover, it is clearly shown that his approach could be of great help to be used continuously in data analysis and processing, allowing the development of new strategies to work might increase the use of such techniques in data analysis in health care

Trajetória de vida de ex-portadores de hanseníase com histórico asilar

Hansen's disease, despite significant advances regarding the diagnosis, treatment and control still carries an immense burden of stigma as a result, mainly of its socio-historical marked by prejudice and isolation of patients, translated by suffering, abandonment and psychosocial problems. Thus, the study set out to rescue the life stories of former leprosy patients with a leprosarium history; recovering the life trajectory stories of these former patients and to identify common factors to these life stories. Exploratory-descriptive study with a qualitative approach, using the Life History Research Methodology. The sample was composed by twelve former leprosy patients who lived while undergone treatment in the Colony Hospital St. Francisco de Assis, located in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The network was composed without considering sex and age limit, patients that lived in the Colony Hospital for at least six months and who agree to participate freely in the study. The subjects with special physical needs (hearing) or mental disabilities and those who do not agree to participate were excluded. A semi-structured interview was used to data collection, the interviews were recorded in the household context of individual, residents in neighborhoods Felipe Camarão, Km 6 and Jardim America, more precisely at Nova Vida village, all located in that district. The data collected were subjected to the technique of thematic content analysis. This study had obtained an appropriate consent of the UFRN Research Ethics Committee under the protocol No. 016/2010. After extensive and careful readings of life stories we identified three themes that guided the data analysis: behavioral stages, social exclusion and, stigma and prejudice. Thus, it is clear that the practice of compulsory confinement of patients in nursing homes and the mythical image of Hansen's disease as being ugly and deformed, contributed to solidifying the historical stigma surrounding the disease and its patients, raising in society and family attitudes and feelings of exclusion, prejudice and fear. Moreover, there are remarkable stories in the lives of these interviewed reporting suffering, denials, anger that reverberate to this day, affecting negatively the social and family reintegration of these individuals. As a result, we see the need for managers and local health professionals, especially nurses, rethink existing strategies for social rehabilitation of the patient and ex-leprosy patient aiming to suppression unjust and harmful stigma rooted in image and stories of these individuals

Transgenic lettuce seedlings carrying hepatitis B virus antigen HBsAg

The obtainment of transgenic edible plants carrying recombinant antigens is a desired issue in search for economic alternatives viewing vaccine production. Here we report a strategy for genetic transformation of lettuce plants (Lactuca sativa L.) using the surface antigen HBsAg of hepatitis B virus. Transgenic lettuce seedlings were obtained through the application of a regulated balance of plant growth regulators. Genetic transformation process was acquired by cocultivation of cotyledons with Agrobacterium tumefaciens harboring the recombinant plasmid. It is the first description of a lettuce Brazilian variety Vitória de Verão genetically modified.

Olhar em terra de cego: a visualidade em Ensaio sobre a Cegueira

"Looking at earth from blind: travel in the visuality of the test on Blindness" is a literary Essay resulted from the experience of different points of view regarding the Essay on Blindness (1996), not only showing a Modern aesthetical tendency in dialog with the Baroque one, but also discussing subjects related to the History of Mentalities. The chapters are disposed as follows: The first one presents a short Excursus about the author and his work; the second one introduces the concept of Allegory exemplifying it with representative images of Romance; the third one presents tragic elements in dialog with the Bataille Eroticism in an Allegory of Feeling; the fourth one shows Stylistic Features used as a display mean of Comedy in Romance going towards the musicalness, being the features used to provoke laugh; the fifth and last one discusses about the study pertinence. To conclude, in favor of a Sight Education, the study considered authors such as: Ariès (1977), Bataille (2003), Bakhtin (2002, 2000, 1999), Benjamin (2000, 1996), Chauí (2005, 2000), Foucault (2006, 2005, 2004, 2002), Freud (1970), Hansen (2006), Lino (2004), Sartre (2005), Vovelle (1996)

Armadillo meat intake was not associated with leprosy in a case control study, Curitiba (Brazil)

Leprosy's progression and its maintained endemic status, despite the availability of effective treatments, are not fully understood and recent studies have highlighted the possibility of involved Mycobacterium leprae ambient reservoirs. Wild armadillos can carry leprosy and, because their meat is eaten by humans, development of the disease among armadillo meat consumers has been investigated. This study evaluated the frequency of armadillo meat intake among leprosy patients as well as age and gender matched controls with other skin diseases from a dermatological unit. Armadillo meat consumption among both groups was adjusted by demographic and socioeconomic covariates based on a conditional multiple logistic regression model. One hundred twenty-one cases and 242 controls were evaluated; they differed in socioeconomic variables such as family income, hometown population and access to treated water. The multivariate analysis did not show an association between the intake of armadillo meat and leprosy (odds ratio = 1.07; CI 95% 0.56-2.04), even when only cases with no known contacts were analyzed. We conclude that leprosy is not associated with the intake of armadillo meat in these patients.

Qualidade de vida em urticária crônica: inquérito em ambulatório público universitário, Botucatu (Brasil)

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o impacto da urticária crônica na qualidade de vida dos pacientes de ambulatório universitário a partir do questionário DLQI (Dermatology Life Quality Index). MÉTODOS: Inquérito sobre o impacto na qualidade de vida infligido pela urticária crônica a partir do questionário DLQI validado para a língua portuguesa. Pacientes foram entrevistados durante suas consultas em ambulatório especializado, entre maio de 2009 e maio de 2010, em serviço público brasileiro (Botucatu-SP). Os escores do DLQI foram analisados segundo subgrupos: idade, gênero, escolaridade, tempo de doença e presença de angioedema. RESULTADOS: Foram entrevistados 100 pacientes com urticária crônica. Predominou o gênero feminino (86%), a idade média foi de 41,8 anos, duração média da doença foi de seis anos e angioedema ocorreu em 82% dos pacientes. O escore médio do DLQI foi de 13,5, caracterizando grave impacto à qualidade de vida, superior a hanseníase, psoríase, eczema atópico e carcinoma basocelular. Presença de angioedema se associou a maiores escores: 14,5 x 9,9 (p < 0,01). Pacientes do gênero feminino referiram maior impacto quanto ao vestuário, já o gênero masculino referiu quanto ao tratamento, trabalho e estudo (p < 0,05). CONCLUSÃO: Urticária crônica inflige grave comprometimento da qualidade de vida nos pacientes avaliados em serviço universitário brasileiro, especialmente nos portadores de angioedema.

Caracterização hidrodinâmica e morfo-sedimentar do estuário Potengi e áreas adjascentes: subsídios para controle e recuperação ambiental no caso de derrames de hidrocarboneto

This study presents the Environmental Sensibility Mapping to oil spillings on the Potengi estuary - RN and neighboring coastline through remote sensing data, collecting, treatment and integration of the geomorphologic, oceanographic (temperature, salinity, density, direction and intensity), meteorological (wind speed and direction) and high resolution seismic (bathymetry and sonography) data. The Potengi river estuary is located on the eastern coastline of the Rio Grande do Norte State, being inserted in the geological context for the coastal Pernambuco-Paraíba basin and spreading over 18 km; it shelters the Natal harbor zone and an oil terminal, centralizing, therefore, important oil transport operations that can cause accidental spillings. Under the oceanographic point of view, the Potengi estuary is characterized by the absence of any expressive thermic stratification, being classified as partially mixed, B type according to Pritchard (1955), and 2 type in conformity to the stratification-circulation diagram by Hansen & Rattray (1966). Two main wind systems are responsable for the formation of wave sets that occur in the area. The dynamic tide presents, in the Natal Harbor, mean amplitude in spring and quadrature tides, with around 2.8 and 2m, respectively. The mechanism of saline tide mixing was defined through the salinity which is the main parameter for the identification of this mechanism. Important variations of the salinity mean values (36.32 psu), temperature (28.11ºC) and density (22.96 kg/m3) in the estuarine waters presented features belonging to low latitude regions. The water temperature follows the air temperature variations, in the region, with expressive daily amplitudes. In this study, the identification of the estuarine bed morphology through bathymetric and sonographic analysis, had the purpose to evaluate the influence of the superficial and bottom currents for the bottom shaping. In this way, the use of the side scan sonar showed, to be very useful in the identification of the bottom morphology and its relationship with the predominant action of the tidal currents in the Potengi estuary. Besides, it showed how the sonograms can be a support to the comparison of the several patterns derived from the local hydrodynamic variations. The holocene sediments, which fill the estuarine channel, are predominantly sandy, varying from selected, sometimes silty. The sedimentation is controlled by the environmental hydrodynamic conditions, being recognized two important textural facies: Muddy Facies and Sandy Facies. The distribution of these textural facies apparently oscillates owing to the tidal cycle and flow intensity. Each one of the above mentioned data was integrated in a Geographic Information System (GIS), from which was produced the Environmental Sensibility Map to oil spillings with Coastal Sensibility Index (CSI) to the Potengi estuary. The integrated analysis of these data is essential to oil spilling contingency plans, in order to reduce the spilling environmental consequences and to make efficient the endeavours of contention and cleaning up/removal on the Natal Harbor. This study has the aim to collaborate for the increase of informations about the estuarine environment and contribute to a better management of the question: environment/polluting loads

Influence of sire and sire breed (Gyr versus Holstein) on establishment of pregnancy and embryonic loss in lactating Holstein cows during summer heat stress

Heat stress has negative effects on pregnancy rates of lactating dairy cattle. There are genetic differences in tolerance to heat stress; Bos taurus indicus (B. t. indicus) cattle and embryos are more thermotolerant than Bos taurus taurus (B. t. taurus). In the present study, the effects of sire and sire breed on conception and embryonic/fetal loss rates of lactating Holstein cows during the Brazilian summer were determined. In Experiment 1, cows (n = 302) were AI after estrus detection or at a fixed-time with semen from one Gyr (B. t. indicus) or one Holstein sire (B. t. taurus). Pregnancy was diagnosed 80 days after AI. In Experiment 2, cows (n = 811) were AI with semen from three Gyr and two Holstein sires. Pregnancy was diagnosed at 30-40 and at 60-80 days after AI. Cows diagnosed pregnant at the first examination but non-pregnant at the second were considered as having lost their embryo or fetus. Data were analyzed by logistic regression. The model considered the effect of sire within breed, sire breed, days postpartum, period of lactation, and AI type (AI after estrus versus fixed-time). There was no effect of the AI type, days postpartum or milk production on conception or embryonic loss rates. The use of Gyr bulls increased pregnancy rate when compared to Holstein bulls [9.1% (60/657) versus 5.0% (23/456), respectively, P = 0.008; data from Experiments 1 and 2 combined]. Additionally, in Experiment 2, cows inseminated using semen from sire #4 (Gyr) had lower embryonic loss (10%) when compared with other B. t. indicus (35.3% and 40%) or B. t. taurus sires (18.2% and 38.5%, P = 0.03). In conclusion, the use of B. t. indicus sires may result in higher conception rates in lactating Holstein cows during summer heat stress. Moreover, sire can affect embryonic loss and selection of bulls according to this criterion may result in higher parturition rates in lactating Holstein cows. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global gene expression of the inner cell mass and trophectoderm of the bovine blastocyst

Background: The first distinct differentiation event in mammals occurs at the blastocyst stage when totipotent blastomeres differentiate into either pluripotent inner cell mass (ICM) or multipotent trophectoderm (TE). Here we determined, for the first time, global gene expression patterns in the ICM and TE isolated from bovine blastocysts. The ICM and TE were isolated from blastocysts harvested at day 8 after insemination by magnetic activated cell sorting, and cDNA sequenced using the SOLiD 4.0 system.Results: A total of 870 genes were differentially expressed between ICM and TE. Several genes characteristic of ICM (for example, NANOG, SOX2, and STAT3) and TE (ELF5, GATA3, and KRT18) in mouse and human showed similar patterns in bovine. Other genes, however, showed differences in expression between ICM and TE that deviates from the expected based on mouse and human.Conclusion: Analysis of gene expression indicated that differentiation of blastomeres of the morula-stage embryo into the ICM and TE of the blastocyst is accompanied by differences between the two cell lineages in expression of genes controlling metabolic processes, endocytosis, hatching from the zona pellucida, paracrine and endocrine signaling with the mother, and genes supporting the changes in cellular architecture, stemness, and hematopoiesis necessary for development of the trophoblast.