Chapter 4 A Review of the Availability of and Studies on Spatial Economic Data in Laos

Spatial data are being increasingly used in a wide range of disciplines, a fact that is clearly reflected in the recent trend to add spatial dimensions to the conventional social sciences. Economics is by no means an exception. On one hand, spatial data are indispensable to many branches of economics such as economic geography, new economic geography, or spatial economics. On the other hand, macroeconomic data are becoming available at more and more micro levels, so that academics and analysts take it for granted that they are available not only for an entire country, but also for more detailed levels (e.g. state, province, and even city). The term ‘spatial economics data’ as used in this report refers to any economic data that has spatial information attached. This spatial information can be the coordinates of a location at best or a less precise place name as is used to describe administrative units. Obviously, the latter cannot be used without a map of corresponding administrative units. Maps are therefore indispensible to the analysis of spatial economic data without absolute coordinates. The aim of this report is to review the availability of spatial economic data that pertains specifically to Laos and academic studies conducted on such data up to the present. In regards to the availability of spatial economic data, efforts have been made to identify not only data that has been made available as geographic information systems (GIS) data, but also those with sufficient place labels attached. The rest of the report is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the maps available for Laos, both in hard copy and editable electronic formats. Section 3 summarizes the spatial economic data available for Laos at the present time, and Section 4 reviews and categorizes the many economic studies utilizing these spatial data. Section 5 give examples of some of the spatial industrial data collected for this research. Section 6 provides a summary of the findings and gives some indication of the direction of the final report due for completion in fiscal 2010.

Chapter 5 Industrial Policy, Structure, and Locations during the Transition toward a Market-oriented Economy in Myanmar

This paper examines Myanmar's industrial policy, structure, and locations during the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one throughout the 1990s and up to the present. After the military government assumed power in 1988, it abandoned the socialist centrally planned economic system and began instituting a market-oriented one through a series of liberalization and deregulation measures, although most of which have stalled since 1997 and remain half-way implemented. Against this background, it is rather surprising that the impact of these new policies of international trade, finance, regulations, licensing and ownership requirements on industrial structure and location in Myanmar has been poorly documented and examined to date. Some key issues to understanding the impact and effectiveness of the market-oriented policies during the last two decades in Myanmar remain to be answered: Have the new trade and industrial policies changed the industrial structure and organizational behavior in Myanmar? Have they improved the performance of Myanmar's industrial sector? Have they had any impact on industry location in Myanmar? This paper reviews the series of liberalization programs implemented under the military government?the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)?and assesses their impact on industrial structure and its spatial distribution.

Chapter 6 Economic integration and changes in industrial location in Vietnam

Vietnam has been praised for its achievements in economic growth and success in poverty reduction over the last two decades. The incidence of poverty reportedly fell from 58.1% in 1993 to 19.5% in 2004 (VASS [2006, 13]). The country is also considered to have only a moderate level of aggregate economic inequality by international comparisons. As of the early 2000s, Vietnam’s consumption-based Gini coefficient is found to be comparable to that of other countries with similar levels of per capita GDP. The Gini index did increase between 1993 and 2004, but rather slowly, from 0.34 to 0.37 (VASS [2006, 13]). Yet, as the country moves on with its market oriented reforms, the question of inequality has been highlighted in policy and academic discourses. In particular, it is pointed out that socio-economic inequalities between regions (or provinces) are significant and have been widening behind aggregate figures (NCSSH [2001], Mekong Economics [2005], VASS [2006]). Between 1993 and 2004, while real per capita expenditure increased in all regions, it grew fastest in those regions with the highest per capita expenditures and vice versa, resulting in greater regional disparities (VASS [2006, 37]). A major contributing factor to such regional inequalities is the uneven distribution of industry within the country. According to the Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam, of the country's gross industrial output in 2007, over 50% belongs to the South East region, close to 25% to the Red River Delta, and about 10% to the Mekong River Delta. All remaining regions share some 10% of the country's gross industrial output. At a quick glance, the South East increased its share of the total industrial gross output in the 1990s, while the Red River Delta started to gain ground in more recent years. How can the government deal with regional disparities is a valid question. In order to offer an answer, it is necessary in the first place to grasp the trend of disparities as well as its background. To that end, this paper is a preparatory endeavor. Regional disparities in industrial activities can essentially be seen as a result of the location decisions of enterprises. While the General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam has conducted one enterprise census (followed by annual enterprise surveys) and two stages of establishment censuses since 2000, sectorally and geographically disaggregated data are not readily available. Therefore, for the moment, we will draw on earlier studies of industrial location and the determinants of enterprises’ location decisions in Vietnam. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. The following two sections deal with the country context. Section 2 will outline some major developments in Vietnam’s international economic relations that may affect sub-national location of industry. According to the theory of spatial economics, economic integration is seen as a major driver of changes in industrial location, both between and within countries (Nishikimi [2008]). Section 3, on the other hand, will consider some possible factors affecting geographic distribution of industry in the domestic sphere. In Section 4, existing literature on industrial and firm location will be examined, and Section 5 will briefly summarize the findings and suggest some areas for future research.

Chapter 7 Clusters of Modern and Local Industries in Vietnam

Since the introduction of the Doi Moi ('renovation') economic reform in 1986, Vietnam has experienced a transformation of its economic management, from a central planning economy to a market-oriented economy. High economic growth, created by the liberalization of activities in all sectors of the economy, has changed the economic structure of the country, and the once agriculture-based and poverty-stricken land now generates a midlevel income and possesses many industrial bases. Economic growth has also changed the landscape of the country. Business complexes have been built in metropolises like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, and rice fields have been converted into industrial zones. As the number of enterprises increased, areas began to emerge where many enterprises agglomerated. Some of these 'clusters' were groups of cottage industry households, while many others were large-scale industrial clusters. As Porter [1998] argues, industrial clusters are the source of a nation's 'competitive advantage'. McCarty et al. [2005] indicate that in some key industries in Vietnam, some clusters of enterprises have been created, although the degree of agglomeration differs from one industry to another. Using industry census data from 2001, they include dot density maps for the 12 leading manufacturing industries in Vietnam. They show that most of the industries analyzed are clustered either in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City (or both). Among these 12 industries, the garments industry has the greatest tendency to cluster, followed by textile, rice, seafood, and paper industries. The fact that industrial clusters have begun to form in some areas could be a positive sign for Vietnam's future economic development. What is lacking in McCarty et al. [2005], however, is the identification of the participants in the industrial clusters. Some argue for the importance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam's economic development (e.g. Nguyen Tri Thanh [2007], Tran Tien Cuong et al. [2008]), while others stress the impact of foreign direct investments (FDI) (for example, Tuan Bui [2009]). Adding information about the participants in the above cluster study (and in other studies of spatial patterns of location of enterprises) may broaden the scope for analysis of economic development in Vietnam. This study aims to reveal the characteristics of industrial clusters in terms of their participants and locations. The findings of the study may provide basic information for evaluating the effects of agglomeration and the robustness of the effects in the industrial clusters in Vietnam. Section 1 describes the characteristics of economic entities in Vietnam such as ownership, size of enterprise, and location. Section 2 examines qualitative aspects of industrial clusters identified in McCarty et al. [2005] and uses information on the size and ownership of clusters. Three key industries (garments, consumer electronics, and motor vehicle) are selected for the study. Section 3 identifies another type of cluster commonly seen in Vietnam, composed of local industries and called 'craft villages'. Many such villages have been developed since the early 1990s. The study points out that some of these villages have become industrialized (or are becoming industrialized) by introducing modern modes of production and by employing thousands of laborers.

Chapter 8 Location Choice of Japanese Multinationals: Country Characteristics or Region Characteristics?

In the present global era in which firms choose the location of their plants beyond national borders, location characteristics are important for attracting multinational enterprises (MNEs). The better access to countries with large market is clearly attractive for MNEs. For example, special treatments on tariffs such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) are beneficial for MNEs whose home country does not have such treatments. Not only such country characteristics but also region characteristics (i.e. province-level or city-level ones) matter, particularly in the case that location characteristics differ widely between a nation's regions. The existence of industrial concentration, that is, agglomeration, is a typical regional characteristic. It is with consideration of these country-level and region-level characteristics that MNEs decide their location abroad. A large number of academic studies have investigated in what kinds of countries MNEs locate, i.e. location choice analysis. Employing the usual new economic geography model (i.e. constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competition, and ice-berg trade costs), the literature derives the profit function, of which coefficients are estimated using maximum likelihood procedures. Recent studies are as follows: Head, Rise, and Swenson (1999) for Japanese MNEs in the US; Belderbos and Carree (2002) for Japanese MNEs in China; Head and Mayer (2004) for Japanese MNEs in Europe; Disdier and Mayer (2004) for French MNEs in Europe; Castellani and Zanfei (2004) for large MNEs worldwide; Mayer, Mejean, and Nefussi (2007) for French MNEs worldwide; Crozet, Mayer, and Mucchielli (2004) for MNEs in France; and Basile, Castellani, and Zanfei (2008) for MNEs in Europe. At the present time, three main topics can be found in this literature. The first introduces various location elements as independent variables. The above-mentioned new economic geography model usually yields the profit function, which is a function of market size, productive factor prices, price of intermediate goods, and trade costs. As a proxy for the price of intermediate goods, the measure of agglomeration is often used, particularly the number of manufacturing firms. Some studies employ more disaggregated numbers of manufacturing firms, such as the number of manufacturing firms with the same nationality as the firms choosing the location (e.g., Head et al., 1999; Crozet et al., 2004) or the number of firms belonging to the same firm group (e.g., Belderbos and Carree, 2002). As part of trade costs, some investment climate measures have been examined: free trade zones in the US (Head et al., 1999), special economic zones and opening coastal cities in China (Belderbos and Carree, 2002), and Objective 1 structural funds and cohesion funds in Europe (Basile et al., 2008). Second, the validity of proxy variables for location elements is further examined. Head and Mayer (2004) examine the validity of market potential on location choice. They propose the use of two measures: the Harris market potential index (Harris, 1954) and the Krugman-type index used in Redding and Venables (2004). The Harris-type index is simply the sum of distance-weighted real GDP. They employ the Krugman-type market potential index, which is directly derived from the new economic geography model, as it takes into account the extent of competition (i.e. price index) and is constructed using estimators of importing country dummy variables in the well-known gravity equation, as in Redding and Venables (2004). They find that "theory does not pay", in the sense that the Harris market potential outperforms Krugman's market potential in both the magnitude of its coefficient and the fit of the model to be estimated. The third topic explores the substitution of location by examining inclusive values in the nested-logit model. For example, using firm-level data on French investments both in France and abroad over the 1992-2002 period, Mayer et al. (2007) investigate the determinants of location choice and assess empirically whether the domestic economy has been losing attractiveness over the recent period or not. The estimated coefficient for inclusive value is strongly significant and near unity, indicating that the national economy is not different from the rest of the world in terms of substitution patterns. Similarly, Disdier and Mayer (2004) investigate whether French MNEs consider Western and Eastern Europe as two distinct groups of potential host countries by examining the coefficient for the inclusive value in nested-logit estimation. They confirm the relevance of an East-West structure in the country location decision and furthermore show that this relevance decreases over time. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the location choice of Japanese MNEs in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, and is closely related to the third topic mentioned above. By examining region-level location choice with the nested-logit model, I investigate the relative importance of not only country characteristics but also region characteristics. Such investigation is invaluable particularly in the case of location choice in those five countries: industrialization remains immature in those countries which have not yet succeeded in attracting enough MNEs, and as a result, it is expected that there are not yet crucial regional variations for MNEs within such a nation, meaning the country characteristics are still relatively important to attract MNEs. To illustrate, in the case of Cambodia and Laos, one of the crucial elements for Japanese MNEs would be that LDC preferential tariff schemes are available for exports from Cambodia and Laos. On the other hand, in the case of Thailand and Vietnam, which have accepted a relatively large number of MNEs and thus raised the extent of regional inequality, regional characteristics such as the existence of agglomeration would become important elements in location choice. Our sample countries seem, therefore, to offer rich variations for analyzing the relative importance between country characteristics and region characteristics. Our empirical strategy has a further advantage. As in the third topic in the location choice literature, the use of the nested-logit model enables us to examine substitution patterns between country-based and region-based location decisions by MNEs in the concerned countries. For example, it is possible to investigate empirically whether Japanese multinational firms consider Thailand/Vietnam and the other three countries as two distinct groups of potential host countries, by examining the inclusive value parameters in nested-logit estimation. In particular, our sample countries all experienced dramatic changes in, for example, economic growth or trade costs reduction during the sample period. Thus, we will find the dramatic dynamics of such substitution patterns. Our rigorous analysis of the relative importance between country characteristics and region characteristics is invaluable from the viewpoint of policy implications. First, while the former characteristics should be improved mainly by central government in each country, there is sometimes room for the improvement of the latter characteristics by even local governments or smaller institutions such as private agencies. Consequently, it becomes important for these smaller institutions to know just how crucial the improvement of region characteristics is for attracting foreign companies. Second, as economies grow, country characteristics become similar among countries. For example, the LCD preferential tariff schemes are available only when a country is less developed. Therefore, it is important particularly for the least developed countries to know what kinds of regional characteristics become important following economic growth; in other words, after their country characteristics become similar to those of the more developed countries. I also incorporate one important characteristic of MNEs, namely, productivity. The well-known Helpman-Melitz-Yeaple model indicates that only firms with higher productivity can afford overseas entry (Helpman et al., 2004). Beyond this argument, there may be some differences in MNEs' productivity among our sample countries and regions. Such differences are important from the viewpoint of "spillover effects" from MNEs, which are one of the most important results for host countries in accepting their entry. The spillover effects are that the presence of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) aises domestic firms' productivity through various channels such as imitation. Such positive effects might be larger in areas with more productive MNEs. Therefore, it becomes important for host countries to know how much productive firms are likely to invest in them. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 takes a brief look at the worldwide distribution of Japanese overseas affiliates. Section 3 provides an empirical model to examine their location choice, and lastly, we discuss future works to estimate our model.

はじめに

2009年度調査研究報告書

目次／執筆者一覧

2009年度調査研究報告書

第1章 タイの議会制度の特徴と立法の推移

本稿は、タイの議会内立法過程を概観し、タイ官報データベースを利用した立法数の推移を分析する。クーデタによる政権交代が多かったタイでは、憲法の廃止・制定が繰り返され、議会制度の変動が大きい。クーデタ後の暫定議会は選挙ではなく任命制であるため、官僚等が多く任命される。このことから、政治家による干渉を回避したい官僚等による駆け込み的な立法が行われると考えられる。立法数のデータは、1991年クーデタ後、2006年クーデタ後の暫定議会における立法数の増加が顕著であることを示している。

第3章 タイにおける条約の国会承認： 2007年憲法とその問題点

本稿では、2007年憲法による条約締結のための制度が成立した背景を概観する。そして、2007年憲法に基づく条約の国会承認過程が、どのような状況をもたらしているのかについて、基本的情報を整理する。2007年憲法は、「CEO首相」と称したタクシンのトップダウン型意思決定による対外政策を否定し、国民の代表である国会の審査を透徹させる事を目指していた。そのために国会承認条約の定義を拡大し、強い首相と弱い議会の力関係を司法が裁定者として調整する規定を設けた。しかしながら、2007年憲法による国会承認条約の定義は非常に広く、そのことが実務官僚の間に混乱をもたらしている。官僚らは憲法裁の違憲判決を恐れてほぼすべての条約案を議会に提出するようになり、膨大な条約案の審査とそのための準備は、官僚ばかりでなく議員にとっても大きな負担となっている。2009年には、議会で第190条の修正を含む憲法改正案が提出されたが、連立与党間の政治的駆け引きにより、反対多数で否決された。190条の定義をいかに具体化し、国際関係を運営する上で効率性と民主的統治のバランスをどうとっていくのか、今後の動向が注視される

まえがき

2009年度調査研究報告書

目次

2009年度調査研究報告書

第4章 インドとアフリカの国際関係

インド独立以降、近年に至るまでのインドとアフリカの関係は、概観すると政治・イデオロギー次元から、アフリカ諸国の独立と解放、冷戦の終結をへて、経済次元にそのアジェンダがシフトしてきた。そして経済次元が重要となるプロセスは、インドが経済自由化に転換し、一方、南アフリカがアパルトヘイト体制を廃棄し民主化を進めたことにより、1990年代前半に両国が国際的な自由経済システムに復帰することでさらに加速された。そのような中で多国間の協力関係を定めるフレームワーク創設の必要性が意識された結果、出てきたのが環インド洋地域協力連合であった。しかし、これはルースな協議体であり、利害関係が多様な環インド洋諸国の協議体としては成果を上げていない。それに対して参加国数を3 カ国に限定したインド・ブラジル・南アフリカ対話フォーラムは一定の進展を見せている。現在、インド政府にとって重要性が高いのはエネルギー資源外交である。この分野はアジア新興国の中国や韓国と激しく競合する場であり、その特色は各国のソフト・パワーよりも経済力などのハード・パワーの方が影響力が大きいという点である。このようなトレンドを見ると、今後のインド・アフリカ関係でより重要になるのは2国間関係であると思われる。この点に関していうと、インドがアフリカの地域大国である南アフリカと比較的に密接な関係を維持していることは重要なポイントであろう。しかし注意すべきはそのような密接性は南アフリカにおけるインド人コミュニティの存在といったソフト・パワー資源に必ずしもよるものではないという点である。より重要な結合要因は両地域大国の経済関係であり、戦略的関係であろう。

はじめに

2009年度調査研究報告書

目次／執筆者一覧

2009年度調査研究報告書

第3章 関税・輸入商品税除去の生産コストへの効果とFTA: アジア国際産業連関表による価格分析

アジア国際産業連関表は、各国各産業の生産構造において関税・輸入商品税を投入要素として明示的にしている。2000年アジア国際産業連関表を用いて、特定(複数)国の関税･輸入商品税の除去がどの程度生産コスト低減に波及するかを、これまで例のなかった国際表による価格モデルによって、中国、日本およびアセアンの組み合わせ(FTA)による効果を検討した。その結果、これまで他の分析から言われている日・中・アセアンFTA が最も効果があるということが、価格モデルからも示されることが判明した。