Risk Management Services in Energy Production

Työ käsittelee energian tuotannossa esiintyviä tärkeimpiä taloudellisia ja teknisiä riskejä sekä niiden hallitsemista energian tuottajan näkökulmasta. Ensiksi käsitellään yleisesti riskienhallintaa, eri riskityyppejä ja esitetään periaatteellinen riskienhallintaprosessi. Sen jälkeen tarkastellaan energiamarkkinoiden nykytilannetta lähinnä Pohjoismaiden tasolla ja verrataan sitä aikaisempaan tilanteeseen energian tuottajan kannalta. Tämä siksi, että energiamarkkinoiden vapautuminen on muuttanut merkittävästi energian tuotantoon liittyviä taloudellisia riskejä, käytännössä lisännyt niitä. Pääpaino on energian tuotannossa esiintyvien olennaisten riskien tarkastelussa ja niiden hallitsemisessa. Ensin esitellään työn kannalta olennaiset riskit ja tekijät joista ne aiheutuvat. Jokainen riski ja sen aiheuttamat haitat liiketoiminnalle kuvataan lyhyesti. Sen jälkeen kiinnitetään huomiota asioihin, jotka ovat tyypillisiä energian tuotannolle ja aiheuttavat samalla erikoisvaatimuksia riskienhallinnalle. Sitten käydään läpi sopivat riskienhallinnan menetelmät, jotka ovat yleisesti käytössä energian tuotannossa, aiemmin esitetyille olennaisille riskeille. Esitetyistä riskienhallinta menetelmistä useimpia ei ole kohdistettu millekään yksittäiselle riskille, vaan monia niistä voidaan käyttää useammankin riskin hallintaan.

Profit at Risk as a Risk Management Tool in Deregulated Energy Markets

Euroopan energiamarkkinat ovat olleet viimeisen kymmenen vuoden aikana suurten muutosten alla. Markkinoiden kehitys on ollut huomattavaa myös Iso-Britanniassa, jossa sähkö- ja kaasumarkkinat ovat olleet avoinna kilpailulle jo muutamia vuosia. Ennen markkinoiden avautumista energiyhtiöt pystyivät siirtämään kaikki riskit suoraan asiakkaan kannettaviksi. Markkinoiden avautumisen myötä lisääntynyt kilpailu on kuitenkin pakottanut energiayhtiöitä ajanmukaistamaan näkemyksiään riskeistä. Riskitekijät, joista ei aiemmin tarvinnut välittää, on nyt pystyttävä tunnistamaan ja hallitsemaan. Tämä työ keskittyy hinta- ja volyymiriskien hallintaan. Rahoitusmarkkinoilla pitkään käytettyjä riskienhallintatyökaluja on otettu käyttöön myös energiamarkkinoilla. Energiamarkkinoiden piirteet poikkeavat kuitenkin rahoitusmarkkinoista, eikä näitä työkaluja voida ottaa käyttöön muutoksitta. Silti, jopa muutosten jälkeen rahoitusmarkkinoiden riskienhallitavälineet aliarvioivat energiamarkkinoiden hinta- ja volyymiriskejä. Tässä yhteydessä työssä esitetään Profit at Risk, PaR. PaR on skenaariopohjainen riskienhallinnan työkalu, joka on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille ja täten huomioi niiden erikoispiirteet. Työn rungon muodostavat energiamarkkinoiden käyttäytyminen, hinta- ja volyymiriskitekijät sekä pohdinta miten hinta- ja volyymiriskeiltä voidaan suojautua ja miten niitä voidaan hallita. PaR-metodologiaa verrataan perinteisiin riskienhallintamenetelmiin ja työn tavoitteena on tuoda esiin ne tekijät, joiden ansiosta PaR on sopivampi työkalu energiamarkkinoiden riskienhallintaan kuin perinteiset menetelmät. Käytännön esimerkkinä työssä toimii Fortum Energy plus’n PaR –malli. Koska PaR on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille, se huomioi täysin markkinoiden aiheuttamat hinta- ja volyymiriskit. Käytännön esimerkki kuitenkin osoittaa, että PaR menetelmästä ei ole riskienhallinnallista hyötyä ellei työkalun käyttäjällä ole täydellistä tietämystä niin energiamarkkinoista kuin markkinoiden muutoksiin vaikuttavien tekijöiden käyttäytymisestä.

Prototype of a web-based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo) framework and its client side software development kit (SDK). The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

Risk Management or Uncertainty Governance? The Challenge of an Interdiscplinary Approach

Peer-reviewed

Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

Background: Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI), measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design: This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018) from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years) and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years). We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion: Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country will have an immediate, clinical and welfare impact and a short term public health effect

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Approaches to Supply Chain Risk Management: Identification, Analysis and Control

Supply chain risk management has emerged as an increasingly important issue in logistics as disruptions in the supply chain have become critical issues for many companies. The scientific literature on the subject is developing and in many respects the understanding of it is still in its infancy. Thus, there is a need for more information in order for scholars and practitioners to understand the causalities and interrelations that characterise the phenomenon. The aim of this dissertation is to narrow this gap by exploring key aspects of supply chain risk management through two maritime supply chains in the immediate region of the Gulf of Finland. The study contributes to the field in three different ways. Firstly, it facilitates the identification of risks on different levels of the supply chain through a systematic analysis of the processes and actors, and of the cognitive barriers that limit the actors’ visibility and their understanding of the operations and the risks involved. There is a clear need to increase collaboration and information exchange in order to improve visibility in the chain. Risk management should be a collaborative effort among the individual actors, aimed at obtaining a holistic picture. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on risk analysis through the use of systemic frameworks that illustrate the causalities and linkages in the system, thereby making it easier to perceive the vulnerabilities. Thirdly, the study enhances current knowledge of risk control in identifying actor roles, risk visibility and risk controllability as being among the key factors determining risk-management effectiveness against supply-chain vulnerability. This dissertation is divided into two parts. The first part gives a general overview of the relevant literature, the research design and the conclusions of the study, and the second part comprises six research publications. Case-study methodology with systematic combining approach is used, where in-depth interviews, questionnaires and expert panel sessions are the main data collection methods. The study illustrates the current state of risk management in multimodal maritime supply chains, and develops frameworks for further analysis. The results imply that there are major differences between organizations in their ability to execute supply chain risk management. Further collaboration should be considered in order to facilitate the development of systematic and effective management processes.

Hazard Risk Management in Large Nordic Companies' Operations in Russia

The objective of this research was to describe how Nordic companies manage hazard risks in their operations in Russia and how the local business environment is considered to affect the hazard risks. Research methods used in this research were literature review and expert interviews. Twelve Nordic industrial companies operating in different fields of industry were interviewed. Large Nordic companies typically guide risk management centralized from the parent company on behalf of the whole company group and the risk management standards and policies are integrated in all subsidiaries. Parent companies typically control hazard risk management in Russia by regular risk management reporting, auditing the Russian sites and by training local managers and employees to risk management work. Many companies have experienced several losses in the first years of operating in Russia before the risk management policies have been implemented in Russian subsidiaries. The companies have learned to take local characteristics better into account by experience and most companies are quite satisfied with their current risk management standards in Russia. The interviews indicate that companies experience especially the poor quality of infrastructure, some features in Russian organizational culture and high level of criminality to increase hazard risks in Russia. However, understanding these features and risks in the business environment makes the management of these risks possible. Risks related to infrastructure can be managed in advance by decreasing dependencies of infrastructure and considering the infrastructure quality already when planning the business operations. Also good local network is often considered critical in order to overcome the complications related to infrastructure. Russian personnel has typically different attitude towards risk management than Nordic personnel and neglecting safety and maintenance and concealing losses is more typical in Russia. By training and guiding the local personnel risk management and safety work and desired ways of actions these risks can be decreased. Criminality risks are often managed to certain extent by investing in security, increasing supervising and paying attention to reliability of the employees and other interest groups of the company.

Evaluating the Maturity of Data Management Practices in a Major Energy Provider Company

Data is the most important asset of a company in the information age. Other assets, such as technology, facilities or products can be copied or reverse-engineered, employees can be brought over, but data remains unique to every company. As data management topics are slowly moving from unknown unknowns to known unknowns, tools to evaluate and manage data properly are developed and refined. Many projects are in progress today to develop various maturity models for evaluating information and data management practices. These maturity models come in many shapes and sizes: from short and concise ones meant for a quick assessment, to complex ones that call for an expert assessment by experienced consultants. In this paper several of them, made not only by external inter-organizational groups and authors, but also developed internally at a Major Energy Provider Company (MEPC) are juxtaposed and thoroughly analyzed. Apart from analyzing the available maturity models related to Data Management, this paper also selects the one with the most merit and describes and analyzes using it to perform a maturity assessment in MEPC. The utility of maturity models is two-fold: descriptive and prescriptive. Besides recording the current state of Data Management practices maturity by performing the assessments, this maturity model is also used to chart the way forward. Thus, after the current situation is presented, analysis and recommendations on how to improve it based on the definitions of higher levels of maturity are given. Generally, the main trend observed was the widening of the Data Management field to include more business and “soft” areas (as opposed to technical ones) and the change of focus towards business value of data, while assuming that the underlying IT systems for managing data are “ideal”, that is, left to the purely technical disciplines to design and maintain. This trend is not only present in Data Management but in other technological areas as well, where more and more attention is given to innovative use of technology, while acknowledging that the strategic importance of IT as such is diminishing.

Survey on control and management practices of equine helminthes infection

Twenty-nine stud farms were selected in the Medium Paraíba region of the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. After an interview with the person responsible for the animals, faecal samples were collected from mares and analyzed via the EPG technique, faecal cultures, Sedimentation-centrifugo-flotation, and modified Ueno and Baermann techniques. The prevalence of helminths in the mares and in the stud farms was calculated. The stocking rates of pasture, change of horse bedding, absence of pasture rotation, absence of technology in the property, and less frequent treatment of the animals were associated with a greater prevalence of helminths, showing that these variables must be considered in equine control programs. The intensity of the parasitism was also associated with the stocking rate of pasture, absence of dunghill, presence of the animals only in paddocks, lack of technology in the property, less frequent treatment of the animals, and absence of the use of rotation regarding the anthelmintic class.

Health management practices and disease prevalence in dairy sheep systems in Argentina

A cross-sectional survey of 19 dairy sheep farms in Argentina was carried out with the purpose to know farm management, health practices, and occurrence and mortality of diseases. The survey comprised 40% of all sheep milking farms in Argentina. A questionnaire was conducted by way of personal interviews with sheep owners during farm visits. The proportions of farms reporting routine vaccination for clostridial diseases, contagious ecthyma, pneumonia and mineral and vitamin parenteral administration were 63%, 47.3%, 16.6% and 42.1% respectively. Regular treatment against lice was used in 37.5% of the farms, and 89.5% o the farmers treated against gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN). The mean number of GIN drenches per farm was 2.26±1.78 annually. In 68.4% of the milking flocks the California Mastitis Test was regularly done and 55.6% of the farmer managers had sampled their flocks once a year for Brucella ovis antibodies. During the pre-mating period respectively 68.4% and 50% of farmers clinically examined their rams and ewe for general health and teeth condition. The udders of ewes were frequently inspected at the start of each milking period. The most important parasite problems noticed were GIN (reported by 57.9% of farmers), lice (57.9%) and scabies (10.5%) and the most frequent infectious diseases were ecthyma (73.7%), pneumonia and other respiratory problems (57.9%), clinical mastitis (55.6%), clostridial diseases (36.9%) and foot lameness (35.2%). Photosensitivity (47.4%) and ruminal acidosis (42.1%) were reported as other frequent toxic or metabolic disorders. Owners mentioned that the mean lifespan or milk productive time per ewe was 4.5±1.4 years. Perinatal lamb mortality was 8.5% and the total flock mortality rates, above the first 24 h of life was 6.9%. The high rates of lamb mortality during the pre-weaning (10.3%) and post-weaning (5.9%) periods indicate that this problem, as well as the most prevalent diseases, should be the subject of further studies.

Risk management measures for REACH registered intermediate substances in pulp mill

Tämän työn tavoitteena on antaa kuvaus riskinhallintamenetelmistä viidelle välituotekemikaalille, joita käytetään Stora Enson Imatran tehtailla. Välituotekemikaalit ovat mustalipeä, viherlipeä, valkolipeä, natriumbisulfiitti ja natriumsulfiitti. Nämä kemikaalit ovat jo rekisteröityjä ECHA:an ja rekisteröintiin liittyen ECHA:an on toimitettava myös kuvaus riskinhallintamenetelmistä. Työn alussa kuvaillaan työn kannalta olennaiset säädökset ja viranomaiset, jotka valvovat kemikaalien käyttöä ja valmistusta Euroopan Unionin alueella. Tämän jälkeen kerrotaan yleisesti välituotekemikaalien rekisteröintikriteereistä. Työn loppuosa käsittää kuvauksen riskinhallintamenetelmistä jokaiselle kemikaalille. Riskinhallintamenetelmät sisältävät eristyksen teknisin keinoin, menettelytapa- ja valvontatekniikat, johtamistavat ja henkilökunnan koulutuksen ja välituotekemikaalien kuljetuksen. Myös jokaisen kemikaalin ominaisuudet on kuvattu ja lyhyt prosessikuvaus kemikaalien valmistuksesta ja käytöstä on esitetty helpottamaan ymmärtämistä.