Introduction to the first international workshop on process management for highly dynamic and pervasive scenarios(PM4HDPS 2008)

Nowadays, process management systems (PMSs) are widely used in many business scenarios, e.g. by government agencies, by insurance companies, and by banks. Despite this widespread usage, the typical application of such systems is predominantly in the context of static scenarios, instead of pervasive and highly dynamic scenarios. Nevertheless, pervasive and highly dynamic scenarios could also benefit from the use of PMSs.

How does access to development finance shape our cities?

In market economies the built environment is largely the product of private sector property development. Property development is a high-risk entrepreneurial activity executing expensive projects with long gestation periods in an uncertain environment and into an uncertain future. Risk lies at the core of development: the developer manages the multiple risks of development and it is the capital injection and financing that is placed at risk. From the developer's perspective the search for development capital is a quest: to access more finance, over a longer term, with fewer conditions and at lower rates. From the supply angle, capital of various sources - banks, insurance companies, superannuation funds, accumulated firm profits, retail investors and private equity - is always seeking above market returns for limited risk. Property development presents one potentially lucrative, but risky, investment opportunity. Competition for returns on capital produces a continual dynamic evolution of methods for funding property developments. And thus the relationship between capital and development and the outcomes for the built environment are in a restless continual evolution. Little is documented about the ways development is financed in Australia and even less of the consequences for cities. Using publicly available data sources and examples of different development financing from Australian practice, this paper argues that different methods of financing development have different outcomes and consequences for the built environment. This paper also presents an agenda for further research into these themes.

Turning event logs into process movies: animating what has really happened

Today’s information systems log vast amounts of data. These collections of data (implicitly) describe events (e.g. placing an order or taking a blood test) and, hence, provide information on the actual execution of business processes. The analysis of such data provides an excellent starting point for business process improvement. This is the realm of process mining, an area which has provided a repertoire of many analysis techniques. Despite the impressive capabilities of existing process mining algorithms, dealing with the abundance of data recorded by contemporary systems and devices remains a challenge. Of particular importance is the capability to guide the meaningful interpretation of “oceans of data” by process analysts. To this end, insights from the field of visual analytics can be leveraged. This article proposes an approach where process states are reconstructed from event logs and visualised in succession, leading to an animated history of a process. This approach is customisable in how a process state, partially defined through a collection of activity instances, is visualised: one can select a map and specify a projection of events on this map based on the properties of the events. This paper describes a comprehensive implementation of the proposal. It was realised using the open-source process mining framework ProM. Moreover, this paper also reports on an evaluation of the approach conducted with Suncorp, one of Australia’s largest insurance companies.

Factors influencing vulnerability and positive post-disaster response following the Mackay 2008 and Brisbane 2011 floods

This project investigated which aspects of being flooded most affected mental health outcomes. It found that stress in the aftermath of the flood, during the clean-up and rebuilding phase, including stress due to difficulties with insurance companies, was a previously overlooked risk factor, and social support and sense of belonging were the strongest protective factors. Implications for community recovery following disasters include providing effective targeting of support services throughout the lengthy rebuilding phase; the need to co-ordinate tradespeople; and training for insurance company staff aimed at minimising the incidence of insurance company staff inadvertently adding to disaster victims' stress.

Identifying services from Legacy batch applications

Transaction processing is a key constituent of the IT workload of commercial enterprises (e.g., banks, insurance companies). Even today, in many large enterprises, transaction processing is done by legacy "batch" applications, which run offline and process accumulated transactions. Developers acknowledge the presence of multiple loosely coupled pieces of functionality within individual applications. Identifying such pieces of functionality (which we call "services") is desirable for the maintenance and evolution of these legacy applications. This is a hard problem, which enterprises grapple with, and one without satisfactory automated solutions. In this paper, we propose a novel static-analysis-based solution to the problem of identifying services within transaction-processing programs. We provide a formal characterization of services in terms of control-flow and data-flow properties, which is well-suited to the idioms commonly exhibited by business applications. Our technique combines program slicing with the detection of conditional code regions to identify services in accordance with our characterization. A preliminary evaluation, based on a manual analysis of three real business programs, indicates that our approach can be effective in identifying useful services from batch applications.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Impacto solvencia II en un seguro de vida

La actividad aseguradora supone la transferencia de riesgos del asegurado al asegurador. El asegurador se compromete al pago de una prestación si el riesgo se realiza. Se produce un cambio en el ciclo productivo. El asegurador vende una cobertura sin conocer el momento y el coste exacto de dicha cobertura. Esta particularidad de la actividad aseguradora explica la necesidad para una entidad aseguradora de ser solvente en cada momento y ante cualquier imprevisto. Por ello, la solvencia de las entidades aseguradoras es un aspecto que se ha ido recogiendo en las distintas normativas que han regulado la actividad aseguradora y al que se ha ido dando cada vez más importancia. Actualmente la legislación vigente en materia de solvencia de las aseguradoras esta regulada por la directiva europea Solvencia I. Esta directiva establece dos conceptos para garantizar la solvencia: las provisiones técnicas y el margen de solvencia. Las provisiones técnicas son las calculadas para garantizar la solvencia estática de la compañía, es decir aquella que hace frente, en un instante temporal determinado, a los compromisos asumidos por la entidad. El margen de solvencia se destina a cubrir la solvencia dinámica, aquella que hace referencia a eventos futuros que puedan afectar la capacidad del asegurador. Sin embargo en una corriente de gestión global del riesgo en la que el sector bancario ya se había adelantado al sector asegurador con la normativa Basilea II, se decidió iniciar un proyecto europeo de reforma de Solvencia I y en noviembre del 2009 se adoptó la directiva 2009/138/CE del parlamento europeo y del consejo, sobre el seguro de vida, el acceso a la actividad de seguro y de reaseguro y su ejercicio mas conocida como Solvencia II. Esta directiva supone un profundo cambio en las reglas actuales de solvencia para las entidades aseguradoras. Este cambio persigue el objetivo de establecer un marco regulador común a nivel europeo que sea más adaptado al perfil de riesgo de cada entidad aseguradora. Esta nueva directiva define dos niveles distintos de capital: el SCR (requerimiento estándar de capital de solvencia) y el MCR (requerimiento mínimo de capital). Para el calculo del SCR se ha establecido que el asegurador tendrá la libertad de elegir entre dos modelos. Un modelo estándar propuesto por la Autoridad Europea de Seguros y Pensiones de Jubilación (EIOPA por sus siglas en inglés), que permitirá un calculo simple, y un modelo interno desarrollado por la propia entidad que deberá ser aprobado por las autoridades competentes. También se contempla la posibilidad de utilizar un modelo mixto que combine ambos, el estándar y el interno. Para el desarrollo del modelo estándar se han realizado una serie de estudios de impacto cuantitativos (QIS). El último estudio (QIS 5) ha sido el que ha planteado de forma más precisa el cálculo del SCR. Plantea unos shocks que se deberán de aplicar al balance de la entidad con el objetivo de estresarlo, y en base a los resultados obtenidos constituir el SCR. El objetivo de este trabajo es realizar una síntesis de las especificaciones técnicas del QIS5 para los seguros de vida y realizar una aplicación práctica para un seguro de vida mixto puro. En la aplicación práctica se determinarán los flujos de caja asociados a este producto para calcular su mejor estimación (Best estimate). Posteriormente se determinará el SCR aplicando los shocks para los riesgos de mortalidad, rescates y gastos. Por último, calcularemos el margen de riesgo asociado al SCR. Terminaremos el presente TFG con unas conclusiones, la bibliografía empleada así como un anexo con las tablas empleadas.

The Spanish corporate structure through interlocking directorates

[EN] The aim of this paper is to determine to what extent globalization pressures are changing interlocking directorate networks modeled on continental capitalism into Anglo-Saxon models. For this purpose we analyse the Spanish network of interlocks, comparing the present structure (2012) with that of 1993 and 2006. We show how, although Spanish corporative structure continues to display characteristics of the continental economies, some major banks are significantly reducing industrial activity. Nevertheless, the financial organizations continue to maintain a close relationship with sectors such as construction and services. The analysis of the network of directorates shows a retreat in activity of industrial banking in Spain. Two large Spanish financial institutions, BSCH and La Caixa, continue to undertake activities of industrial banking in 2006, but this activity is significantly reduced in 2012. According to the theories on the role of the interlocking directorates, the companies in these sectors assure their access to banking credit by incorporating advisors from financial organizations to their board of directors. We cannot conclude that the structure of the Spanish corporate network has become a new case of Anglo-Saxon structure, but we got indications that are becoming less hierarchic as banks seem to slowly abandon centrality positions. This is especially salient if we compare the networks of 2006 and 2012, which show a continuing decrease of the role of banks and insurance companies in the network.

Empresas promotoras de saúde no sistema de saúde colombiano: dinâmica financeira estrutural.

Esta dissertação analisou as Empresas Promotoras de Salud (EPS), seguradoras de saúde introduzidas no sistema de saúde colombiano através da reforma sanitária instaurada com a Lei n 100/1993, desde uma perspectiva de economia política crítica, através do método de análise documental. A maioria delas são empresas privadas com finalidade lucrativa que conformaram rapidamente um oligopólio que reproduziu problemas dos modelos de Managed Care e Managed Competition já conhecidos internacionalmente. Esta dissertação analisou as relações entre os processos de financeirização do sistema capitalista e o processo de ajuste estrutural na Colômbia, com a reforma sanitária e a dinâmica financeira das EPS. Também foi analisada a introdução de mecanismos próprios do processo de financeirização na gestão financeira das EPS, como: a alavancagem; a reprodução ampliada de capital através da dívida pública; e os investimentos em ativos securitizados. Dado que o sistema de saúde atual se caracteriza por altos níveis de inequidade e injustiça, as consequências da finalidade lucrativa neste, com suas expressões concretas de sofrimento e morte na população, foram preocupações transversais deste trabalho. Os resultados desta dissertação demonstraram a concentração oligopólica do mercado de seguros privados de saúde, cujas empresas se organizaram como um cartel, dificultando o acesso aos serviços de saúde para seus segurados, o que contribuiu para a piora de indicadores de saúde da população. Quando a mobilização social obrigou a aumentar o controle sobre as EPS, estas começaram a sair do mercado declarando-se em falência, ou entrando subitamente em balanços financeiros negativos.

Bio-folio: applying portfolio theory to biodiversity

Genes, species and ecosystems are often considered to be assets. The need to ensure a sufficient diversity of this asset is being increasingly recognised today. Asset managers in banks and insurance companies face a similar challenge. They are asked to manage the assets of their investors by constructing efficient portfolios. They deliberately make use of a phenomenon observed in the formation of portfolios: returns are additive, while risks diversify. This phenomenon and its implications are at the heart of portfolio theory. Portfolio theory, like few other economic theories, has dramatically transformed the practical work of banks and insurance companies. Before portfolio theory was developed about 50 years ago, asset managers were confronted with a situation similar to the situation the research on biodiversity faces today. While the need for diversification was generally accepted, a concept that linked risk and return on a portfolio level and showed the value of diversification was missing. Portfolio theory has closed this gap. This article first explains the fundamentals of portfolio theory and transfers it to biodiversity. A large part of this article is then dedicated to some of the implications portfolio theory has for the valuation and management of biodiversity. The last section introduces three development openings for further research.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.

Scott McElveen LLP presents the South Carolina big 50

This ranks private, public and foreign-affiliated companies by the number of employees on their South Carolina payrolls as of July 1, 2008, and then compares the progress of participating companies from year to year. The South Carolina Big 50 includes financial institutions, insurance companies, retailers, retail establishments, hospitals and healthcare organizations. The South Carolina Big 50, however, does exclude government agencies and organizations. The top company remained the same as in the 2007 issue, with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. continuing to be ranked No. 1. BI-LO LLC and Palmetto Health moved from No. 3 and No. 4 to No. 2 and No. 3 respectively.

Do princípio da boa fé nos contratos de seguro

O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os seguintes tópicos: a possibilidade de interpretação literal do artigo 798 do Código Civil brasileiro, a aplicação das súmulas 61 e 105 do STF, o cabimento de indenização à família do suicida, os entendimentos da neurociência sobre possibilidades que podem interferir na ideação suicida, a visão e, finalmente, posicionamentos do Superior Tribunal de Justiça (STJ) e do Supremo Tribunal Federal do Brasil e quanto ao pagamento da indenização estabelecido no contrato de seguro de vida em caso de suicídio do contratante antes dos dois anos da assinatura do contrato. Buscou-se, também, comparar a doutrina e jurisprudência do Brasil e de Portugal. Na estrutura, iniciou-se por considerações sobre a interpretação jurídica e, em seguida, foram desenvolvidos os capítulos acerca de negócio jurídico, dos contratos, dos contratos de seguro de vida e da boa fé presente e necessária. Como o foco principal eram os contratos de seguro de vida e baseando-se na doutrina e na jurisprudência, de modo geral, mesmo a legislação dos dois países diferindo em pequenos aspectos, concluiu-se que: (1) o seguro é a cobertura de evento futuro e incerto que poderá gerar o dever de indenizar por parte do segurador; (2) a boa-fé - que é presumida - constitui elemento intrínseco do seguro, e é caracterizada pela lealdade nas informações prestadas pelo segurado ao garantidor do risco pactuado; (3) o legislador procurou evitar fraudes contra as seguradoras na hipótese de contratação de seguro de vida por pessoas que já tinham a idéia de suicídio quando firmaram o instrumento contratual; (4) uma coisa é a contratação causada pela premeditação ao suicídio, que pode excluir a indenização. Outra, diferente, é a premeditação para o próprio ato suicida;(5) é possível a interpretação entre os enunciados das Súmulas 105 do STF e 61 da Corte Superior na vigência do Código Civil de 2002; e (6) as regras relativas aos contratos de seguro devem ser interpretadas sempre com base nos princípios da boa fé e da lealdade contratual. Essa premissa é extremamente importante para a hipótese de indenização securitária decorrente de suicídio, pois dela extraise que a presunção de boa fé deverá também prevalecer sobre a exegese literal do art. 798 do Código Civil 2002. O período de 02 anos contido na norma não deve ser examinado isoladamente, mas em conformidade com as demais circunstâncias que envolveram sua elaboração, pois seu objetivo certamente não foi substituir a prova da premeditação do suicídio pelo mero transcurso de um lapso temporal. Há de se distinguir a premeditação que diz respeito ao ato do suicídio daquela que se refere ao ato de contratar o seguro com afinalidade única de favorecer o beneficiário que receberá o capital segurado. Somente a última hipótese permite a exclusão da cobertura contratada, pois configura a má-fé contratual. Em Portugal, salvo em raras exceções, apenas o critério temporal tem sido considerado. Continuando com o objetivo deste estudo, pretendeu-se refletir sobre as pesquisas neurocientíficas acerca do suicídio e, nelas, constam aspectos efetivamente que merecem ser considerados pela ciência jurídica. Suicídio é tema complexo e digno de reflexões por parte de profissionais de várias áreas de atuação. Suas causas ainda são motivo de curiosidade e de investigação. A idéia de uma associação entre disfunção serotoninérgica e suicídio é antiga e bastante consistente, surgindo ainda nos anos 1970 com as primeiras pesquisas. Defende-se que a boa fé necessária nos contratos de seguro, especialmente nos de seguro de vida, prevalece mesmo nos casos em que o contratante se esquece ou deixa de informar algum detalhe que, mais tarde, possa vir a comprometer o recebimento do prêmio por seus beneficiários. Há fortes evidências de que determinantes neurobiológicos, independentes das doenças psiquiátricas, implicam em comportamento suicida, estudados especialmente nos últimos 20 anos. Assim, noções básicas sobre a neurobiologia do suicídio podem finalmente produzir ferramentas clínicas para tratar comportamento suicida e evitar mortes, além de poder nortear seguradoras na análise de propostas de seguros de vida. Textos legais não têm sido elaborados com fundamento na sedimentação existente nos repositórios da psicopatologia forense, psiquiatria, psicanálise e sociologia sobre o suicídio, disponíveis há décadas e de forma reiteradamente confirmados. Na mesma linha, os textos deixaram de lado incontáveis pesquisas sobre o tema, notadamente a respeito de sua etiologia, causas primárias, efeitos, e correlação com outras ciências, como neurociência, psiquiatria e psicanálise. Não buscaram informações sobre o comportamento singular do suicida, nem reconheceram o estado sui generis de desequilíbrio mental em que o ato final foi praticado. Sabe-se que os transtornos psiquiátricos são fundamentais para o entendimento do comportamento suicida, mas também já está comprovada a realidade de problemas comuns, como distúrbios do sono, e sono insuficiente é um problema da sociedade moderna. Dentre os neurotransmissores, a serotonina é considerada como a maior candidata a um vínculo etiológico entre distúrbios do sono e suicídio, pois suas alterações promovem estados de vigília e de início do sono. Como somente 14% de pessoas que tentaram suicídio tiveram pensamentos suicidaprévios à tentativa de suicídio de forma potencialmente impulsiva ou reativa, a insônia foi o fator importante visualizado antes de tentativas de suicídio graves e letais em relação a planosespecíficos de suicídio. Nas pesquisas neurocientíficas revisadas, constatou-se que: (1) a frequência de pesadelos está diretamente associada a maior risco de suicídios na população em geral; (2) sono de má qualidade está associado a suicídios na maturidade e velhice na população em geral; (3) sono curto (menos de cinco horas) está associado a maiores probabilidades de ideação suicida e tentativa de suicídio; (4) pesadelos frequentes são preditores de tentativas de suicídio; e (5) a presença de qualquer problema de sono está associada com maior risco de suicídio na população em geral. A associação entre redução da resposta de hormônio de crescimento e comportamento suicida nos pacientes com depressão só é encontrada quando há simultaneamente uma alteração serotoninérgica. Geneticamente analisados, determinantes neurobiológicos são independentes de transtorno psiquiátrico com o qual estão associados, pois muitos suicídios ocorrem de maneira inesperada. Além disso, quando se considera a depressão como único fator, percebe-se que muitas pessoas depressivas nunca se tornam suicidas e muitos suicídios são cometidos por pessoas consideradas normais.Quanto à colesterolemia, na maior categoria de concentração de colesterol total no soro, o risco relativo ajustado de suicídio violento é mais do que o dobro em comparação com a categoria mais baixa. Nas avaliações eletroencefalográficas em adolescentes suicidas pode-se dizer existir uma hipótese de ativação reduzida esquerda posterior, que não está relacionada à depressão, mas ao comportamento agressivo ou suicida. Essas abordagens da Neurociência servem, portanto, para indicar que um contratante de seguro de vida, mesmo saudável, pode estar vivenciando problemas da vida contemporânea e, mesmo sem jamais ter tido qualquer pensamento ou ideação suicida, vir a cometer esse ato extremo por alterações independentes de sua vontade. Entende-se que, neste foco, a ciência jurídica deve refletir para fazer inserir de maneira obrigatória nos pré-requisitos da apólice, informações sobre exames molecu-lares e sobre algum eventual distúrbio do sono, já que existem achados evidenciados sobre alguns fenômenos não antes considerados. Como abordado neste estudo, já existe uma seguradora portuguesa que solicitam exames moleculares, mas nenhuma no Brasil. Assim, isto indica já ser um início de mudança.