Does speed matter? : the impact of the EU membership incentive on rule adoption in minority language rights protection

Denna avhandling tar sin utgångspunkt i ett ifrågasättande av effektiviteten i EU:s konditionalitetspolitik avseende minoritetsrättigheter. Baserat på den rationalistiska teoretiska modellen, External Incentives Model of Governance, syftar denna hypotesprövande avhandling till att förklara om tidsavståndet på det potentiella EU medlemskapet påverkar lagstiftningsnivån avseende minoritetsspråksrättigheter. Mätningen av nivån på lagstiftningen avseende minoritetsspråksrättigheter begränsas till att omfatta icke-diskriminering, användning av minoritetsspråk i officiella sammanhang samt minoriteters språkliga rättigheter i utbildningen. Metodologiskt används ett jämförande angreppssätt både avseende tidsramen för studien, som sträcker sig mellan 2003 och 2010, men även avseende urvalet av stater. På basis av det \"mest lika systemet\" kategoriseras staterna i tre grupper efter deras olika tidsavstånd från det potentiella EU medlemskapet. Hypotesen som prövas är följande: ju kortare tidsavstånd till det potentiella EU medlemskapet desto större sannolikhet att staternas lagstiftningsnivå inom de tre områden som studeras har utvecklats till en hög nivå. Studien visar att hypotesen endast bekräftas delvis. Resultaten avseende icke-diskriminering visar att sambandet mellan tidsavståndet och nivån på lagstiftningen har ökat markant under den undersökta tidsperioden. Detta samband har endast stärkts mellan kategorin av stater som ligger tidsmässigt längst bort ett potentiellt EU medlemskap och de två kategorier som ligger närmare respektive närmast ett potentiellt EU medlemskap. Resultaten avseende användning av minoritetsspråk i officiella sammanhang och minoriteters språkliga rättigheter i utbildningen visar inget respektive nästan inget samband mellan tidsavståndet och utvecklingen på lagstiftningen mellan 2003 och 2010.

A stopping rule while searching for optimal solution of facility-location

Solutions to combinatorial optimization, such as p-median problems of locating facilities, frequently rely on heuristics to minimize the objective function. The minimum is sought iteratively and a criterion is needed to decide when the procedure (almost) attains it. However, pre-setting the number of iterations dominates in OR applications, which implies that the quality of the solution cannot be ascertained. A small branch of the literature suggests using statistical principles to estimate the minimum and use the estimate for either stopping or evaluating the quality of the solution. In this paper we use test-problems taken from Baesley's OR-library and apply Simulated Annealing on these p-median problems. We do this for the purpose of comparing suggested methods of minimum estimation and, eventually, provide a recommendation for practioners. An illustration ends the paper being a problem of locating some 70 distribution centers of the Swedish Post in a region.

The Optimal trigger speed of vehicle activated signs

The thesis aims to elaborate on the optimum trigger speed for Vehicle Activated Signs (VAS) and to study the effectiveness of VAS trigger speed on drivers’ behaviour. Vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs that are activated by individual vehicle when the driver exceeds a speed threshold. The threshold, which triggers the VAS, is commonly based on a driver speed, and accordingly, is called a trigger speed. At present, the trigger speed activating the VAS is usually set to a constant value and does not consider the fact that an optimal trigger speed might exist. The optimal trigger speed significantly impacts driver behaviour. In order to be able to fulfil the aims of this thesis, systematic vehicle speed data were collected from field experiments that utilized Doppler radar. Further calibration methods for the radar used in the experiment have been developed and evaluated to provide accurate data for the experiment. The calibration method was bidirectional; consisting of data cleaning and data reconstruction. The data cleaning calibration had a superior performance than the calibration based on the reconstructed data. To study the effectiveness of trigger speed on driver behaviour, the collected data were analysed by both descriptive and inferential statistics. Both descriptive and inferential statistics showed that the change in trigger speed had an effect on vehicle mean speed and on vehicle standard deviation of the mean speed. When the trigger speed was set near the speed limit, the standard deviation was high. Therefore, the choice of trigger speed cannot be based solely on the speed limit at the proposed VAS location. The optimal trigger speeds for VAS were not considered in previous studies. As well, the relationship between the trigger value and its consequences under different conditions were not clearly stated. The finding from this thesis is that the optimal trigger speed should be primarily based on lowering the standard deviation rather than lowering the mean speed of vehicles. Furthermore, the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, with the goal of lowering the standard deviation.

Rule versus interaction function : evaluating regional aggregations of commuting flows in Sweden

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of two divergent methods for delineating commuting regions, also called labour market areas, in a situation that the base spatial units differ largely in size as a result of an irregular population distribution. Commuting patterns in Sweden have been analyzed with geographical information system technology by delineating commuting regions using two regionalization methods. One, a rule-based method, uses one-way commuting flows to delineate local labour market areas in a top-down procedure based on the selection of predefined employment centres. The other method, the interaction-based Intramax analysis, uses two-way flows in a bottom-up procedure based on numerical taxonomy principles. A comparison of these methods will expose a number of strengths and weaknesses. For both methods, the same data source has been used. The performance of both methods has been evaluated for the country as a whole using resident employed population, self-containment levels and job ratios for criteria. A more detailed evaluation has been done in the Goteborg metropolitan area by comparing regional patterns with the commuting fields of a number of urban centres in this area. It is concluded that both methods could benefit from the inclusion of additional control measures to identify improper allocations of municipalities.

Benchmark Evaluation of HOG Descriptors as Features for Classification of Traffic Signs

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance of the Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG) as descriptors for traffic signs recognition. The test dataset consists of speed limit traffic signs because of their high inter-class similarities.   HOG features of speed limit signs, which were extracted from different traffic scenes, were computed and a Gentle AdaBoost classifier was invoked to evaluate the different features. The performance of HOG was tested with a dataset consisting of 1727 Swedish speed signs images. Different numbers of HOG features per descriptor, ranging from 36 features up 396 features, were computed for each traffic sign in the benchmark testing. The results show that HOG features perform high classification rate as the Gentle AdaBoost classification rate was 99.42%, and they are suitable to real time traffic sign recognition. However, it is found that changing the number of orientation bins has insignificant effect on the classification rate. In addition to this, HOG descriptors are not robust with respect to sign orientation.

Review of the effectiveness of vehicle activated signs

This paper reviews the effectiveness of vehicle activated signs. Vehicle activated signs are being reportedly used in recent years to display dynamic information to road users on an individual basis in order to give a warning or inform about a specific event. Vehicle activated signs are triggered individually by vehicles when a certain criteria is met. An example of such criteria is to trigger a speed limit sign when the driver exceeds a pre-set threshold speed. The preset threshold is usually set to a constant value which is often equal, or relative, to the speed limit on a particular road segment. This review examines in detail the basis for the configuration of the existing sign types in previous studies and explores the relation between the configuration of the sign and their impact on driver behavior and sign efficiency. Most of previous studies showed that these signs have significant impact on driver behavior, traffic safety and traffic efficiency. In most cases the signs deployed have yielded reductions in mean speeds, in speed variation and in longer headways. However most experiments reported within the area were performed with the signs set to a certain static configuration within applicable conditions. Since some of the aforementioned factors are dynamic in nature, it is felt that the configurations of these signs were thus not carefully considered by previous researchers and there is no clear statement in the previous studies describing the relationship between the trigger value and its consequences under different conditions. Bearing in mind that different designs of vehicle activated signs can give a different impact under certain conditions of road, traffic and weather conditions the current work suggests that variable speed thresholds should be considered instead.

The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs

The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probalities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidles and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper “Updating Ambiguos Beliefs” they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa preferences under uncertainty, that the Dempster-Schafer rule is in general not ex-ante optimal. This contrasts with Brown’s result that Bayes’ rule is ex-ante optimal for standard Savage preferences with additive probabilities.

Bailey's rule for the welfare of inflation: a theoretical foundation

This paper demonstrates that for a very general class of monetary models (the Sidrauski type models and the cash-in-advance models), Bailey’s rule to evaluate the welfare efect of infation is in deed accurate. The result applies for any technology or preference, if the long-run capital stock does not depend on the ination rate. In general, a dynamic version of Bailey’s rule is established. In particular, the result extends to models in which there is a banking sector that supplies money substitutes services. A dditionally, it is argued that the relevant money demand concept for this issue- the impact of in ination under welfare- is the monetary base.

On the optimality of the Friedman Rule with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation

We study the optimal “inflation tax” in an environment with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxes. We first derive the general conditions needed for the optimality of the Friedman rule in this setup. These general conditions are distinct in nature and more easily interpretable than those obtained in the literature with a representative agent and linear taxation. We then study two standard monetary specifications and derive their implications for the optimality of the Friedman rule. For the shopping-time model the Friedman rule is optimal with essentially no restrictions on preferences or transaction technologies. For the cash-credit model the Friedman rule is optimal if preferences are separable between the consumption goods and leisure, or if leisure shifts consumption towards the credit good. We also study a generalized model which nests both models as special cases.

The optimality of the Friedman rule when some distorting taxes are exogenous

This paper investigates the optimality of the Friedman rule in a two-sector small open economy. That policy prescription is found to be a necessary condition for Pareto efficiency. If a planner can select all conceivable distorting taxes, then, for some initial values of public debt, money balances and foreign assets, it is possible to decentralize a Pareto efficient allocation. If the planner can select only some of these tax rates, then second-best policies may also satisfy the Friedman rule. However, this last result depends on the set of tax instruments the planner can choose from.

The time consistency of the Friedman rule

We consider the problem of time consistency of the Ramsey monetary and fiscal policies in an economy without capital. Following Lucas and Stokey (1983) we allow the government at date t to leave its successor at t + 1 a profile of real and nominal debt of all maturities, as a way to influence its decisions. We show that the Ramsey policies are time consistent if and only if the Friedman rule is the optimal Ramsey policy.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Evaluation of electrophoretic profile and albumin quota in the cerebrospinal fluid of dogs with distemper showing or not neurvous signs

Estudaram-se o perfil eletroforético das proteínas liquóricas e a cota de albumina em cães sem e com cinomose na fase neurológica e não-neurológica. A punção da cisterna magna para a obtenção de amostras de liquor realizou-se em 30 cães. Analisaram-se teores de proteínas totais, cota de albumina e fracionamento eletroforético das proteínas liquóricas em gel de agarose. Os resultados foram semelhantes nos cães normais e nos cães com cinomose sem sinais neurológicos e significativamente elevados no grupo de cães com cinomose apresentando sinais neurológicos. O estudo do quadro protéico do líquido cérebroespinhal foi útil e contribuiu significativamente na detecção de lesões ao sistema nervoso central e de danos à barreira hematoencefálica durante a fase neurológica da cinomose.

Molecular diagnosis of Anaplasmataceae organisms in dogs with clinical and microscopical signs of ehrlichiosis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

On Fuzzy Implication Classes - Towards Extensions of Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems

Atualmente, há diferentes definições de implicações fuzzy aceitas na literatura. Do ponto de vista teórico, esta falta de consenso demonstra que há discordâncias sobre o real significado de "implicação lógica" nos contextos Booleano e fuzzy. Do ponto de vista prático, isso gera dúvidas a respeito de quais "operadores de implicação" os engenheiros de software devem considerar para implementar um Sistema Baseado em Regras Fuzzy (SBRF). Uma escolha ruim destes operadores pode implicar em SBRF's com menor acurácia e menos apropriados aos seus domínios de aplicação. Uma forma de contornar esta situação e conhecer melhor os conectivos lógicos fuzzy. Para isso se faz necessário saber quais propriedades tais conectivos podem satisfazer. Portanto, a m de corroborar com o significado de implicação fuzzy e corroborar com a implementação de SBRF's mais apropriados, várias leis Booleanas têm sido generalizadas e estudadas como equações ou inequações nas lógicas fuzzy. Tais generalizações são chamadas de leis Boolean-like e elas não são comumente válidas em qualquer semântica fuzzy. Neste cenário, esta dissertação apresenta uma investigação sobre as condições suficientes e necessárias nas quais três leis Booleanlike like — y ≤ I(x, y), I(x, I(y, x)) = 1 e I(x, I(y, z)) = I(I(x, y), I(x, z)) — se mantém válidas no contexto fuzzy, considerando seis classes de implicações fuzzy e implicações geradas por automorfismos. Além disso, ainda no intuito de implementar SBRF's mais apropriados, propomos uma extensão para os mesmos