From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Financial losses in pork supply chain: a study of the pre-slaughter handling impacts

Brazil is amongst the world’s largest swine producers. However, its competitiveness has been vulnerable due to a lack of cooperation between the supply chain players. This condition makes the financial losses to be evaluated taking into account only an individual node, and most of the time, these damages are imputed by swine breeders. Living weight losses occur between the farm to slaughterhouses, and the main cause of these losses is the pre-slaughter handling, especially during animal transportation. In this research, we analyzed the pre-slaughter handling in a swine farm in Brasilândia, MS, Brazil. Analyzed data were provided by five slaughterhouses (farm clients) from the studied region, in which it was considered living weight losses, carcass bruising, animal injury, and death rate. The results indicated that total financial losses represent 160 thousand dollars per year, when taking into account the supply chain management.

CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY from theory into financial statement: UPM-Kymmene Oyj

For number of reasons social responsibility in corporations has become a more essential part of business operations than before. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is dealt with different means and aspects but the overall effects it has on organisations performance, communication and underline actions is indisputable. The thesis describes corporate social responsibility and the main objective was to observe how corporate social responsibility has developed in our case company with answering to main research question how CSR reporting has evolved in UPM-Kymmene Oyj? In addition following questions were also addressed: Is there a monetary value of CSR? What does proficient CSR report consist of? What does corporate social responsibility consist of? Qualitative research method, content analysis to be precise, was chosen and excessive literature study performed to find the theoretical back ground to perform the empirical part of the study. Data for the empirical part was collected from UPM-Kymmene Oyj financial data and annual reports. The study shows that UPM-Kymmene Oyj engagement to CSR and reporting of CSR matter have improved due time but still few managerial implications could be found. UPM-Kymmene Oyj economic key figures are only building shareholder value and stakeholders are identified in very general level. Also CSR data is scattered all over the annual report which causes problems to readers. The scientific importance of this thesis arises from the profound way CSR has been addressed in a holistic manner. Thus it is giving a good basis to understand the underlying reasons of CSR from society towards the organisation and vice versa.

Corporate Social Responsibility in the Oil and Gas Industry: Environmental Management Systems as a Source of Sustainable Development

The environmental aspect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) expressed through the process of the EMS implementation in the oil and gas companies is identified as the main subject of this research. In the theoretical part, the basic attention is paid to justification of a link between CSR and environmental management. The achievement of sustainable competitive advantage as a result of environmental capital growth and inclusion of the socially responsible activities in the corporate strategy is another issue that is of special significance here. Besides, two basic forms of environmental management systems (environmental decision support systems and environmental information management systems) are explored and their role in effective stakeholder interaction is tackled. The most crucial benefits of EMS are also analyzed to underline its importance as a source of sustainable development. Further research is based on the survey of 51 sampled oil and gas companies (both publicly owned and state owned ones) originated from different countries all over the world and providing reports on sustainability issues in the open access. To analyze their approach to sustainable development, a specifically designed evaluation matrix with 37 indicators developed in accordance with the General Reporting Initiative (GRI) guidelines for non-financial reporting was prepared. Additionally, the quality of environmental information disclosure was measured on the basis of a quality – quantity matrix. According to results of research, oil and gas companies prefer implementing reactive measures to the costly and knowledge-intensive proactive techniques for elimination of the negative environmental impacts. Besides, it was identified that the environmental performance disclosure is mostly rather limited, so that the quality of non-financial reporting can be judged as quite insufficient. In spite of the fact that most of the oil and gas companies in the sample claim the EMS to be embedded currently in their structure, they often do not provide any details for the process of their implementation. As a potential for the further development of EMS, author mentions possible integration of their different forms in a single entity, extension of existing structure on the basis of consolidation of the structural and strategic precautions as well as development of a unified certification standard instead of several ones that exist today in order to enhance control on the EMS implementation.

CSR standards and financial performance in forest industry - Empirical analysis

The definition of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been developed since 1950s but even today there is no consensus what CSR includes. The main purpose of this thesis was to find out whether financial performance is better among first adopters of CSR standards in forest industry. To support the main purpose it was critical also investigate what kind of companies adopt CSR standards. The empirical part of the thesis based on a survey which was done in 2010 to forest industry companies and financial data that was gathered from different databases from years 2003-2010. According to the research results it seems the early CSR standards adopters benefits the position of the first adopter many times. Especially cash position and solvency of early adopter companies were better than later adopters or those who did not adopt CSR standards at all. Profitability seemed to be better among CSR standards adopters but early adopters did not have significantly better position compared to later adopters. CSR standards adopters were companies that considered themselves as environmental performance pioneers and had employee oriented management.

Earnings management in the process of preparing corporate financial reports

Earnings management (EM) literature examines managers’ use of judgment in financial reporting and in structuring transactions to alter financial reports for a specific reason. Mainstream EM literature strongly concentrates on statistical research methodologies and it is driven by positive accounting theory. Although EM occurs in the process of preparing corporate financial reports, that process has so far largely remained a “black box” in prior literature. The purpose of this study is to analyze what EM is, how and why it unfolds and how it is intertwined in the process of preparing corporate financial reports. In order to meet the needs of the study, a qualitative case study method will be used. The contribution of this study is threefold. First, it indicates that the concept of EM is not as unam-biguous as the prior literature has assumed. I find that EM is socially constructed and more open to interpretation than absolutely dichotomous conception given by previous studies. Second, this study contributes to our knowledge of the role and the importance of actors involved in conducting EM, indicating that EM is much more actor-dependent than the prior literature has assumed. Third, this study broadens our knowledge base with regard to the processes and potential for EM in academic research.

The effectiveness of financial innovation support tools. Comparative study of Latvia and Finland

In the Innovation Union Scoreboard of 2011, Latvia ranked last amongst the EU countries in innovation performance. Even though there is sufficient scientific and technological basis, the results remain modest or low in most of the indicators concerning innovations. Several aspects influence the performance a national innovation system. In Latvia, the low effectiveness is often attributed to lack of financial support tools. As a comparison, Finland was chosen because of its well-established and documented innovation system. The aim of this study is to research the efficiency and effectiveness of the current financial innovation support tool system in Latvia from the point of view of an innovating company. It also attempts to analyze the support tool system of Latvia and compare to the relevant parts of the Finnish system. The study found that it is problematic for innovative companies in Latvia to receive the necessary funding especially for start-ups and SMEs due to the low number of grant programs, funds and lacking offer from banks, venture capital and business angels. To improve the situation, the Latvian government should restructure the funding mechanisms putting a bigger emphasis on innovative start-ups and SMEs. That would lay a foundation for future growth and boost research and scientific activities in Latvia.

Analysis of value drivers behind CRM adoption projects in financial services industry

This research is focused on deriving framework for the value thought for from the Customer Relationship Management system adopted by an enterprise operating in the financial services industry. It will analyze existing academic work to derive a conceptual value model, while applying secondary industry specific case studies provided by the CRM vendors to check the validity and commonality of these drivers. Furthermore this work locates the variances and correlation between value thought for from CRM system, scope of enterprise operations and size of the enterprise.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax - Do Transaction Costs Lower Volatility?: A Literature Review

In this literature review the theorethical framework of Financial transaction taxes and their assumed effect on market volatility is assessed. The empirical evidence from various studies is compared against the theory and a simple empirical review of the Finnish stock market is conducted. The findings implicate that financial transaction taxes can not reduce volatility and their actual effect on markets is dependend by many other factors as well. Some evidence even suggests that transactions taxes may actually raise volatility.

Financial Slack and Bidding Firms’ Takeover Announcement Stock Returns – an Event Study

Despite the fact that the literature on mergers and acquisitions is extensive, relatively little effort has been made to examine the relationship between the acquiring firms’ financial slack and short-term post-takeover announcement abnormal stock returns. In this study, the case is made that the financial slack of a firm is not only an outcome of past business and financing activities but it also may affect the quality of acquisition decisions. We will hypothesize that the level of financial slack in a firm is negatively associated with the abnormal returns following acquisition announcements because slack reduces managerial discipline over the use of corporate funds and also because it may give rise to managerial self-serving behavior. In this study, financial slack is measured in terms of three financial statements ratios: leverage ratio, cash and equivalents to total assets ratio and free cash flow to total assets ratio. The data used in this paper is collected from two main sources. A list comprising 90 European acquisition announcements is retrieved from Thomson One Banker database. The stock price data and financial statements information for the respective firms is collected using Datastream. Our empirical analysis is two-fold. First, we conduct a two-sample t-test where we find that the most slack-rich firms experience lower abnormal returns than the most slack-poor firms in the event window [-1, +1], significant at 5% risk level. Second, we perform a cross sectional regression for sample firms using three financial statements ratios to explain cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). We find that leverage shows a statistically significant positive relationship with cumulative abnormal returns in event window [-1; +1] (significance 5%). Moreover, cash to total assets ratio showed a weak negative relationship with CAR (significant at 10%) in event window [-1; +1]. We conclude that our hypothesis for the inverse relationship between slack and abnormal returns receives empirical support. Based on the results of the event study we get empirical support for the hypothesis that the capital markets expect the acquisitions undertaken by slack-rich firms to more likely be driven by managerial self-serving behavior and hubris than do those undertaken by slackpoor firms, signaling possible agency problems and behavioral biases.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.