936 resultados para Combinações de Previsões


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As previsões mais recentes, e em relação à “crise” da água, apontam para que até ao ano de 2025 quase dois terços da humanidade possa vir a sofrer com a escassez de água potável, afetando praticamente todos os países do mundo, incluindo os países desenvolvidos, a menos que haja uma redução da procura e/ou o desenvolvimento de novas fontes de água potável. Face ao atual panorama mundial de escassez de água potável, devido às alterações climáticas, deficiente gestão e exploração dos recursos hídricos e crescente procura de água para a agricultura, consumo doméstico e industrial, a dessalinização da água do mar apresenta-se como uma solução segura e confiável para fazer face a este problema. Nesta dissertação são descritas as várias técnicas de dessalinização da água do mar em uso corrente, assim como as novas tecnologias e aplicações futuras. De todas as técnicas, a Reverse Osmosis (RO) foi tratada com mais detalhe neste estudo, por ser das técnicas mais utilizadas em todo mundo e porque é a mais promissora em termos de custo/benefício, mesmo em regiões onde antes a sua aplicação era impensável. Esta dissertação foca aspetos importantes relacionados com o processo da dessalinização, nomeadamente, os impactes ambientais e relação custo/benefício associados ao processo, e as perspetivas futuras. Finalmente procedeu-se a uma análise do processo de dessalinização aplicado à situação de Cabo Verde, onde os recursos hídricos de água potável são escassos, e a dessalinização apresenta-se como a principal fonte de água potável para abastecimento público.

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Objetivo. O objetivo deste artigo é aferir causalidade entre a ação preferencial da Petrobrás (PETR4) com o mercado futuro de commodities de petróleo (contratos com primeiro vencimento CL1) e o índice futuro do S&P 500 (contratos com primeiro vencimento, SP1). Metodologia. Utilizamos o vetor auto-regressivo (VAR) e o vetor de correção de erros (VEC)para descrever a estrutura de interdependência entre as variáveis. Achados. Os testes de causalidade indicaram que a commodity de petróleo e o índice de ações norte-americano Granger causam PETR4. Verificamos que um modelo VAR(1) é o mais adequado para capturar o efeito cruzado entre as variáveis. Por fim, os testes indicaram que o modelo do tipo VEC melhora as previsões para as variáveis PETR4 e CL1. Limitações. Apesar de utilizar um grande volume de informações intradiárias, os dados referem-se à apenas seis meses de observações, o que pode viesar os resultados obtidos. Originalidade/Valor. O estudo é pioneiro (ao menos no conhecimento dos autores) em averiguar relações entre esses ativos.

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Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

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O presente trabalho incidiu sobre uma família de eletrólitos sólidos cerâmicos à base de óxido de zircónio, incluindo ainda óxido de magnésio como dopante, normalmente designados de Mg-PSZ (zircónia parcialmente estabilizada com magnésia). Dependendo da composição e condições de processamento (perfil de sinterização) estes materiais podem exibir interessantes combinações de propriedades mecânicas, térmicas e elétricas que permitem a sua utilização no fabrico de sensores de oxigénio para metais fundidos. O uso de sensores é hoje essencial numa lógica de controlo de processo e eficiência energética. No sentido de tentar compreender como influenciar estas propriedades, exploraram-se diversos níveis de dopante (de 2,5 até 10 mol%, com acréscimos de 2,5 mol% de MgO), diversas velocidades de arrefecimento (2, 3 e 5 °C.min-1) a partir de uma condição igual de patamar de sinterização (1700 °C, 3 horas), e ainda alguns ciclos de sinterização mais complexos, com patamares intermédios inseridos no processo de arrefecimento, com o objetivo de tentar alterar os processos de nucleação e crescimento de fases. Na realidade, as transformações de fases a que este tipo de materiais se encontra sujeito (cúbica  tetragonal  monoclínica, para temperaturas decrescentes), possuem diferentes velocidades características (uma é difusiva a outra displaciva), permitindo este tipo de condicionamento. Os materiais obtidos foram alvo de caracterização estrutural e microestrutural, complementada por um conjunto de outras técnicas de caracterização física como a espectroscopia de impedância, dilatometria e dureza. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a complexidade das relações entre processamento e comportamento mas permitiram identificar condições de potencial interesse prático para as aplicações em vista.

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Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Estruturas

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The fishing sector has been suffering a strong setback, with reduction in fishing stocks and more recently with the reduction of the fishing fleet. One of the most important factors for this decrease, is related to the continuous difficulty to find fish with quality and quantity, allowing the sector work constantly all year long. However other factors are affecting negatively the fishing sector, in particular the huge maintenance costs of the ships and the high diary costs that are necessary for daily work of each vessel. One of the main costs associated with daily work, is the fuel consumption. As an example, one boat with 30 meters working around 17 hours every day, consumes 2500 liters of fuel/day. This value is very high taking into account the productivity of the sector. Supporting this premise was developed a project with the aim of reducing fuel consumption in fishing vessels. The project calls “ShipTrack” and aims the use of forecasts of ocean currents in the routes of the ships. The objective involves the use of ocean currents in favor, and avoiding ocean currents against, taking into account the course of the ship, in order to reduce fuel consumption and increase the ship speed. The methodology used underwent the creation of specific Software, in order to optimize routes, taking into account the forecasts of the ocean currents. These forecasts are performed using numerical modelling, methodology that become more and more important in all communities, because through the modeling, it can be analyzed, verified and predicted important phenomena to all the terrestrial ecosystem. The objective was the creation of Software, however its development was not completed, so it was necessary a new approach in order to verify the influence of the ocean currents in the navigation of the fishing ship "Cruz de Malta". In this new approach, and during the various ship routes it was gathering a constant information about the instant speed, instantaneous fuel consumption, the state of the ocean currents along the course of the ship, among other factors. After 4 sea travels and many routes analyzed, it was possible to verify the influence of the ocean currents in the Ship speed and in fuel consumption. For example, in many stages of the sea travels it was possible to verify an increase in speed in zones where the ocean currents are in favor to the ships movements. This incorporation of new data inside the fishing industry, was seen positively by his players, which encourages new developments in this industry.

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The synthesis and optimization of two Li-ion solid electrolytes were studied in this work. Different combinations of precursors were used to prepare La0.5Li0.5TiO3 via mechanosynthesis. Despite the ability to form a perovskite phase by the mechanochemical reaction it was not possible to obtain a pure La0.5Li0.5TiO3 phase by this process. Of all the seven combinations of precursors and conditions tested, the one where La2O3, Li2CO3 and TiO2 were milled for 480min (LaOLiCO-480) showed the best results, with trace impurity phases still being observed. The main impurity phase was that of La2O3 after mechanosynthesis (22.84%) and Li2TiO3 after calcination (4.20%). Two different sol-gel methods were used to substitute boron on the Zr-site of Li1+xZr2-xBx(PO4)3 or the P-site of Li1+6xZr2(P1-xBxO4)3, with the doping being achieved on the Zr-site using a method adapted from Alamo et al (1989). The results show that the Zr-site is the preferential mechanism for B doping of LiZr2(PO4)3 and not the P-site. Rietveld refinement of the unit-cell parameters was performed and it was verified by consideration of Vegard’s law that it is possible to obtain phase purity up to x = 0.05. This corresponds with the phases present in the XRD data, that showed the additional presence of the low temperature (monoclinic) phase for the powder sintered at 1200ºC for 12h of compositions with x ≥ 0.075. The compositions inside the solid solution undergo the phase transition from triclinic (PDF#01-074-2562) to rhombohedral (PDF#01-070-6734) when heating from 25 to 100ºC, as reported in the literature for the base composition. Despite several efforts, it was not possible to obtain dense pellets and with physical integrity after sintering, requiring further work in order to obtain dense pellets for the electrochemical characterisation of Li Zr2(PO4)3 and Li1.05Zr1.95B0.05(PO4)3.

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Introdução: Com uma consciencialização cada vez maior das populações para a preservação dos dentes naturais, a Endodontia tem assumido uma importância crescente, tendo por objectivo principal a manutenção de dentes funcionais, sem prejudicar a saúde dos pacientes. Estes devem beneficiar de um tratamento segundo o “standard of care”, proporcionado por profissionais competentes. Vários estudos demonstram que a Endodontia é considerada uma área difícil e stressante para os estudantes, exibindo um sentimento de menor confiança na prática clínica, sobretudo no que diz respeito a procedimentos mais complexos, nomeadamente, no tratamento de dentes posteriores. Em 2010, na tentativa de homogeneizar as competências adquiridas pelos Médicos Dentistas (MD), a Associação para a Educação Dentária Europeia (AEDE) definiu critérios para a sua formação pré-graduada, indicando que o MD recém-graduado deve ter adquirido competências e capacidades técnicas que lhe permita começar a sua prática clínica de forma independente. Objectivos: Analisar os conhecimentos adquiridos e as dificuldades sentidas na área da Endodontia pelos alunos do 4º e 5º anos do Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Dentária da Faculdade de Ciências de Saúde (FCS) da Universidade Fernando Pessoa (UFP), fazendo, igualmente, uma abordagem ao ensino ministrado na área da Endodontia face aos resultados obtidos. Materiais e Métodos: Este trabalho está dividido em duas partes: revisão bibliográfica e investigação científica. A revisão bibliográfica do tema engloba o ensino graduado em Medicina Dentária, o uso de isolamento absoluto (IA) na prática clínica de Endodontia, a instrumentação manual versus rotatória, a influência no sucesso do tratamento endodôntico (TE) da sua execução por estudantes do 4º e 5º ano, as Guidelines para o TE e o ensino de Endodontia na UFP. A pesquisa bibliográfica foi efectuada através da base de dados PubMed, tendo sido utilizadas, em diferentes combinações, as seguintes palavras-chave: ”Endodontics”, “teaching”; “pre-clinical”; “undergraduate”; “Clinical”; “treatment” e “Europe”. O trabalho de investigação consistiu na elaboração, aprovação pela Comissão de Ética da UFP e posterior aplicação de um questionário destinado aos alunos do 4º e 5º ano do Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Dentária da FCS-UFP. A população estimada de alunos do 4º ano foi de 190 alunos e a de 5º ano de 150 alunos, o que perfaz um total de 340 alunos. Dos inquéritos respondidos, apenas foram considerados 338, uma vez que dois foram anulados pois continham respostas inválidas. Resultados: A “condição socioeconómica do paciente” foi considerada a causa menos relevante para avaliar um caso endodôntico, tendo sido apontada por 34,3% dos alunos. Assinala-se que 92% dos alunos de 4º ano e 93,3% dos alunos de 5º ano consideram que os molares superiores são os dentes mais difíceis de tratar, sendo a visibilidade uma das principais razões para esta opinião. O grau de dificuldade para a colocação do IA é definido como “Elevado” para a maioria dos alunos de 4º ano. A maior parte dos alunos de 5º ano considera que o grau de dificuldade para a “Determinação do tipo de reconstrução/prótese fixa mais indicada” é “Elevado”. O passo do TE onde os alunos do 4º ano se sentem mais confiantes é no “Diagnóstico de cárie”, sendo que os alunos do 5º ano se sentem mais confiantes ao realizar o “TE em dentes com 1 ou 2 canais”. O “Conteúdo leccionado nas aulas teóricas” foi considerado o principal aspecto positivo do ensino endodôntico. Por outro lado, o “Número de actos clínicos realizados” foi considerado o principal aspecto negativo, tanto para alunos de 4º como de 5º ano. Em ambos os anos, os principais pontos que os alunos acham que devem ser melhorados são o “Número de pacientes nas aulas clínicas” e a “Aprendizagem da técnica de instrumentação mecanizada/obturação termoplástica”. As principais preocupações referidas, tanto por alunos de 4º como de 5º anos, foram a “Insegurança na prática clínica” e a “Dificuldade em encontrar ofertas profissionais”. Relativamente à qualidade dos seus TE existe um número significativo de alunos do 5º ano que já se auto-avaliam como “Bons” (33,6%), por comparação com os do 4º ano (21,2%), sendo a auto-avaliação de “Razoável” dominante em ambos os anos de formação. Conclusões: Conclui-se que na disciplina de Endodontia na FCS-UFP, são seguidas as Guidelines da European Society of Endodontology (ESE), sendo que estas indicam o protocolo mais correcto a seguir durante o Tratamento Endodôntico Não-Cirúrgico (TENC). Contudo, o reduzido número de actos clínicos e a consequente falta de prática faz com que os alunos se sintam pouco confiantes ao iniciar a sua actividade profissional.

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This work has as its theme the social function of terrenos de marinha. Theresearch universe is the terrenos de marinha of Natal coastline, focusing on thefulfillment of its social function. Prescribed by law since the colonial period with thepurpose of protecting the coast and free movement of people and goods, theywere swathes of land not available to private use by individuals. With the transitionfrom the allotments system to the purchase and sale, regard to land access,crystallized with the creation of the Land Law in the nineteenth century, the land isheld as merchandise and terrenos de marinha, following this logic, also acquireexchange value and become capable of enjoyment by private individuals, with thecondition of tax payments to the state. This is seen until the twentieth century,when in 1988, primarily because of the Federal Constitution promulgation, begins anew cycle when is possible to use on terrenos de marinha the principle of thesocial function of property. From this perspective this study aims to identify thesocial function of terrenos de marinha in Natal, focusing on the public destinationand the use value of the city coastline. To this end, it was made a data collection inthe on-line information system of the Federal Heritage Department of Rio Grandedo Norte (SPU / RN) and in the terrenos de marinha areas, in order to find out ifthey had public or private use, or if they were empty lots, as well as if thepopulation access to the shore exist. Interviews with managers of the SPU weremade. The empirical study showed that the social function of terrenos de marinhain the city of Natal still didn´t happen, considering the constant existence of vacantlots in their areas, the lack of access in significant portions of the coastline and thereduced areas directed to common use along the coastline, minimizing its potentialof enjoyment by the population. It concludes by pointing to the existence of a newtransition phase on the terrenos de marinha, in witch, gradually, come up lawprovisions in the legal system and public policies to expand the purely taxcollection function attributed to this land for two centuries. In this direction, thesocial function of terrenos de marinha is embodied in concomitant adjustment ofthe tax collection function and the rescue of coastline use value, national heritageand a place for sociability and social relations development

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Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

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The employment of flexibility in the design of façades makes them adaptable to adverse weather conditions, resulting in both minimization of environmental discomfort and improvement of energy efficiency. The present study highlights the potential of flexible façades as a resource to reduce rigidity and form repetition, which are usually employed in condominiums of standardized houses; as such, the work presented herein contributes to field of study of architectural projects strategies for adapting and integrating buildings within the local climate context. Two façade options were designed using as reference the bionics and the kinetics, as well as their applications to architectural constructions. This resulted in two lightweight and dynamic structures, which cater to constraints of comfort through combinations of movements, which control the impact of solar radiation and of cooling in the environment. The efficacy and technical functionality of the façades were tested with comfort analysis and graphic computation software, as well as with physical models. Thus, the current research contributes to the improvement of architectural solutions aimed at using passive energy strategies in order to offer both better quality for the users and for the sustainability of the planet

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Grande parte do tempo clínico do Médico Dentista é, atualmente, gasto a substituir restaurações dentárias realizadas no passado devido a fraturas ou fenómenos de cárie secundária. Pesquisou-se, assim, para a realização desta monografia em diferentes bases de pesquisa acerca dos fenómenos de cárie e cárie secundária. Um dos objetivos desta revisão bibliográfica estudar a microbiologia associada á cárie secundária, a histopatologia da lesão, o diagnóstico e os problemas associados ao diagnóstico. pretende-se, também, nesta monografia devido á sua pertinência investigar o potencial bacteriostático e bactericida dos diversos materiais disponíveis e em que situações esse efeito é potenciado, de modo a auxiliar o clinico na sua decisão no momento de restauração dentária, procurando prevenir ou adiar a necessidade de efetuar uma nova restauração. Para a realização desta monografia foram realizadas pesquisas nos motores de busca PubMed, B-on, Science Direct e Sci-elo. Depois de selecionados os artigos com interesse e com a utilização de seguintes palavras-chave e combinações de palavras sendo que no final foram selecionados 58 Artigos, dentro dos últimos 10 anos na língua portuguesa e na língua inglesa. Apesar da microbiologia e dos fenómenos histopatológicos de desenvolvimento da lesão estarem bem documentados, não existe consenso no que toca ao diagnóstico e tratamento das lesões. Existem diversos métodos de diagnóstico ao alcance da prescrição do Médico Dentista, sendo que, no entanto, nem todos estão indicados para o diagnóstico de lesões de cárie. Face á grande variedade de materiais restauradores e sistemas adesivos existentes no mercado torna-se imperativo que o Médico Dentista tenha os conhecimentos necessários sobre o potencial antibacteriano desses mesmos materiais. Sendo, assim, capaz de concluir mediante a situação apresentada: as vantagens, desvantagens e potencialidades dos diversos materiais á sua disposição na prevenção de lesões de cárie inicial e cárie secundária, aumentando a sobrevivência das peças dentárias. Conclui-se que a cárie secundária não é um fenómeno exclusivo a nenhum tipo de material forrador, ou restaurador não existindo também nenhum material capaz de efetuar com elevadas taxas de sucesso a sua prevenção. Contudo, atualmente, vem-se procurando a utilização de materiais que proporcionem um maior selamento da estrutura dentária, diminuindo a microinfiltração e consequentemente diminuindo os fenómenos de cárie secundária.

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The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

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This master thesis aims to assess the influence of the design decisions on the energy building performance of hotels. The research is based on the integration of field study and computer simulation. Firstly, a detailed field study is carried out to identify the characteristics of hotels in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The items assessed are occupancies, light and equipment densities, types of air conditioning, total and monthly energy consumption, among others. A second and more comprehensive field study is carried out to identify the range of occurrence of architectural variables, with a larger number of buildings. A base case is modelled in VisualDOE, based on the first field study. Then, a first set of simulations are run to explore the sensitivity of the variables on the energy consumption. The results analyses were the base of a second set of simulations, which combined the most influential variables. The results of 384 models were assessed, and the impacts of design decisions were quantified. The study discusses tendencies and recommendations, as well as the methods advantages and disadvantages

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Dissertação de mestrado em Biologi apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, 2008