Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Chemical synthesis and structure elucidation of bovine K-casein (1-44)

The caseins (αs1, αs2, β, and κ) are phosphoproteins present in bovine milk that have been studied for over a century and whose structures remain obscure. Here we describe the chemical synthesis and structure elucidation of the N-terminal segment (1–44) of bovine κ-casein, the protein which maintains the micellar structure of the caseins. κ-Casein (1–44) was synthesised by highly optimised Boc solid-phase peptide chemistry and characterised by mass spectrometry. Structure elucidation was carried out by circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. CD analysis demonstrated that the segment was ill defined in aqueous medium but in 30% trifluoroethanol it exhibited considerable helical structure. Further, NMR analysis showed the presence of a helical segment containing 26 residues which extends from Pro8 to Arg34. This is the first report which demonstrates extensive secondary structure within the casein class of proteins.

Hendra virus infection in a veterinarian

A veterinarian became infected with Hendra virus (HeV) after managing a terminally ill horse and performing a limited autopsy with inadequate precautions. Although she was initially only mildly ill, serological tests suggested latent HeV infection. Nevertheless, she remains well 2 years after her initial illness. Recently emerged zoonotic viruses, such as HeV, necessitate appropriate working procedures and personal protective equipment in veterinary practice.

Distribution and eradication of an exotic tephritid fruit fly in Australia: Relevance of invasion theory

Data from the eradication of the incursion of Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Dipt.: Tephritidae) in Australia (1995-1998) are used to assess the significance of various aspects of invasion theory, including the influence of towns on establishment, influence of propagule pressure on the pattern of establishment, and the existence of source-sink dynamics. Because there were no sentinel traps in place, considerable spread had occurred before the eradication campaign started. The distribution of fly density around the epicentre in the town of Cairns and a transect along the main traffic routes to the north and south fitted a Cauchy model with a tail having the same slope as a power model with an exponent of -2.4 extending to 160 km. The Cauchy model indicated that 50% of the flies on the transect would have occurred within 3.2 km of the epicentre, 90% within 13.2 km, and 99% within 60 km. The two major satellites at Mareeba (35 km from the epicentre in Cairns) and Mossman (65 km) were not used for the transect data and had respectively 15 and 30 times the density predicted by the model. The proportion of traps that caught flies (a measure of site occupancy) fell with distance from the epicentre. B. papayae was trapped consistently on only three of the 16 rainforest transects that were surveyed and these were relatively close to urban areas where eradication efforts were intense. Despite there being no eradication effort in the rainforest, the trends to extinction were similar to those in adjacent areas. The strategy of initially concentrating eradication efforts on the core and major satellites while maintaining a quarantine barrier at the airport and the boundaries of the infested area appears to be the key to the containment and rapid eradication of the incursion.

Occupational burnout and health

Occupational burnout and heath Occupational burnout is assumed to be a negative consequence of chronic work stress. In this study, it was explored in the framework of occupational health psychology, which focusses on psychologically mediated processes between work and health. The objectives were to examine the overlap between burnout and ill health in relation to mental disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and cardiovascular diseases, which are the three commonest disease groups causing work disability in Finland; to study whether burnout can be distinguished from ill health by its relation to work characteristics and work disability; and to determine the socio-demographic correlates of burnout at the population level. A nationally representative sample of the Finnish working population aged 30 to 64 years (n = 3151-3424) from the multidisciplinary epidemiological Health 2000 Study was used. Burnout was measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory - General Survey. The diagnoses of common mental disorders were based on the standardized mental health interview (the Composite International Diagnostic Interview), and physical illnesses were determined in a comprehensive clinical health examination by a research physician. Medically certified sickness absences exceeding 9 work days during a 2-year period were extracted from a register of The Social Insurance Institution of Finland. Work stress was operationalized according to the job strain model. Gender, age, education, occupational status, and marital status were recorded as socio-demographic factors. Occupational burnout was related to an increased prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders and alcohol dependence among the men and women. Burnout was also related to musculoskeletal disorders among the women and cardiovascular diseases among the men independently of socio-demographic factors, physical strenuousness of work, health behaviour, and depressive symptoms. The odds of having at least one long, medically-certified sickness absence were higher for employees with burnout than for their colleagues without burnout. For severe burnout, this association was independent of co-occurring common mental disorders and physical illnesses for both genders, as was also the case for mild burnout among the women. In a subgroup of the men with absences, severe burnout was related to a greater number of absence days than among the women with absences. High job strain was associated with a higher occurrence of burnout and depressive disorders than low job strain was. Of these, the association between job strain and burnout was stronger, and it persisted after control for socio-demographic factors, health behaviour, physical illnesses, and various indicators of mental health. In contrast, job strain was not related to depressive disorders after burnout was accounted for. Among the working population over 30 years of age, burnout was positively associated with age. There was also a tendency towards higher levels of burnout among the women with low educational attainment and occupational status and among the unmarried men. In conclusion, a considerable overlap was found between burnout, mental disorders, and physical illnesses. Still, burnout did not seem to be totally redundant with respect to ill health. Burnout may be more strongly related to stressful work characteristics than depressive disorders are. In addition, burnout seems to be an independent risk factor for work disability, and it could possibly be used as a marker of health-impairing work stress. However, burnout may represent a different kind of risk factor for men and women, and this possibility needs to be taken into account in the promotion of occupational health.

Vääränikäisiä äitejä? : Ikä ja äitiyden yhteiskunnalliset ehdot

This dissertation reports on research on the contradictions between “right-aged” motherhood accordant with normative life-course and the motherhood of a woman who lives her life according to her own choices and options. The focus of this study is to analyse and interpret the motherhood of women who have become mothers for the first time both at a very young age (under 20) and at an older age (in their 40s), from the viewpoint of life-course, age and social class. The study discusses motherhood both as an experience and as a socially-constructed phenomenon. Research questions are the following: How do mothers at different ages talk about pregnancy and motherhood as a part of their life-course? What meanings do mothers at different ages give to age, growing up and adulthood? How is social class constructed in the speech of different-aged mothers? This dissertation includes five articles and a summary chapter. The theoretical starting points for the study are Finnish critical family studies, Finnish feminist social policy studies and Anglo-American feminist motherhood studies. Additionally, this study draws on sociological age studies and new sociological social class studies. The methodological approach is discursive-materialistic. This approach recognises issues related to language, cultural representation and subjectivity, but it also aims to locate them in their social and historical context. The data is drawn from twenty-four interviews of different-aged mothers and articles collected from popular magazines on babies and parenting. In the interview data, different issues related to motherhood are constructed due not only to the women’s age, but also their social background. Social class becomes visible in the relationship between the interviewed women and nuclear family, expert knowledge or money and livelihood. In this study, social class and age are intertwined. It is almost impossible to analytically distinguish which of the mothers’ experiences are related to class and which are related to age. In this study, young motherhood is shown as quite positive. Even though the interviewed young women did not usually plan to have a child, it was not a great shock either. In the young mothers’ speech, motherhood appears as a natural part of the life-course and growing up. The conditions young mothers suggested as necessary to good motherhood do not depend on standard of living, education or social background. A young age is seen as a resource, not as an obstacle to good motherhood. Postponing one’s motherhood is associated with materialism and a career-oriented lifestyle. The older mothers in this study rarely reported having postponed their motherhood on purpose. Some of them explained the delay with extended studies or financial insecurity caused by part-time unemployment. Others recounted they had been insecure about their abilities to cope with a child or lacked a suitable partner. Some of them may have wanted a child much earlier in life, given the right circumstances. In the older mothers’ speech, motherhood is strongly associated with adult life, permanent employment and a (heterosexual) nuclear family.

Finnish Homicides and Mental Disorders: An investigation of offense and offender characteristics

Although the majority of people with mental illness are not violent, scientific studies over the last decades show that certain psychiatric disorders increase the risk of violent behavior, including homicide. This thesis examined crime scene behaviors and offender background characteristics among mentally ill Finnish homicide offenders. Previously, homicide crime scene behaviors have been investigated in relation to offender demographic characteristics, whereas this study compares the behaviors of offenders with various mental illnesses. The study design was a retrospective chart review of the forensic psychiatric statements of Finnish homicide offenders. The work consists of four substudies. The aims of the study were as follows: To describe differences in the childhood and family backgrounds as well as in the adolescent and adult adjustment of Finnish homicide offenders belonging to different diagnostic categories (schizophrenia, personality disorder, alcoholism, drug addiction or no diagnosis). Further, the study examined associations between the crime scene behaviors and mental status of these offenders. Also, the distinguishing characteristics between two groups of offenders with schizophrenia were examined: early starters, who present antisocial behavior before the onset of schizophrenia, and late starters, who first offend after the onset of mental disorder. Finally, it was investigated how the use of excessive violence is associated with clinical and circumstantial variables as well as offender background characteristics among homicide offenders with schizophrenia. The main findings of the study can be summarized as follows. First, offenders with personality disorder or drug addiction had experienced multiple difficulties in their early environments: both family and individual problems were typical. Offenders with schizophrenia were relatively well-adjusted in childhood compared to the other groups. However, in adolescence and adulthood, social isolation, withdrawal and other difficulties attributable to these offenders illness became evident. In several aspects, offenders with alcohol dependency resembled offenders with no diagnosis in that these offenders had less problematic backgrounds compared to other groups. Second, the results showed that crime scene behaviors, victim gender and the victim-offender relationship differ between the groups. In particular, offenders with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or drug addiction have some unique features in their crime scene behaviors and choice of victims. Offenders with schizophrenia were more likely to kill a blood relative, to use a sharp weapon and to injure the victim s face. Drug addiction was associated with stealing from the victim and trying to cover up the body. Third, the results suggest that the offense characteristics of early- and late-start offenders with schizophrenia differ only modestly. However, several significant differences between the groups were found in characteristics of offenders: early starters had experienced a multitude of problems in their childhood surroundings and also later in life. Fourth, violent acts where the offender did not commit the offense alone or had previous homicidal history were predictive of excessive violence among offenders with schizophrenia. Positive psychotic symptoms did not predict the use of excessive violence. Nearly one third of the cases in the sample involved multiple and severe violence, including features such as sadism, mutilation, sexual components or extreme stabbing. In sum, mentally disordered homicide offenders are heterogeneous in their offense characteristics as well as their background characteristics. Empirically based information on how the offender s mental state is associated with specific crime scene behaviors can be utilized within the police force in developing methods of prioritizing suspects in unsolved homicide cases. Also, these results emphasise the importance of early interventions for problem families and children at risk of antisocial behavior. They may also contribute to the development of effective treatment for violent offenders.

Kinetics of interaction of Cotton Leaf Curl Kokhran Virus-Dabawali (CLCuKV-Dab) coat protein and its mutants with ssDNA

Gemini viral assembly and transport of viral DNA into nucleus for replication, ssentially involve DNA-coat protein interactions. The kinetics of interaction of Cotton LeafCtirl Kokhran Virus-Dabawali recombinant coat protein (rCP) with DNA was studied by electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and Surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The rCP interacted with ssDNA with a K-A, of 2.6 +/- 0.29 x 10(8) M-1 in a sequence non-specific manner. The CP has a conserved C2H2 type zinc finger motif composed of residues C68, C72, H81 and H85. Mutation of these residues to alanine resulted in reduced binding to DNA probes. The H85A mutant rCP showed the least binding with approximately 756 fold loss in the association rate and a three order magnitude decrease in the binding affinity as compared to rCP. The CP-DNA interactions via the zinc finger motif could play a Crucial role ill Virus assembly and in nuclear transport. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

From a "Student" to a Lifelong "Consumer" : Constructions of Educability in Adult Students' Narrative Life Histories

The focus of this study was to examine the constructions of the educable subject of the lifelong learning (LLL) narrative in the narrative life histories of adult students at general upper secondary school for adults (GUSSA). In this study lifelong learning has been defined as a cultural narrative on education, “a system of political thinking” that is not internally consistent, but has contradictory themes embedded within it (Billig et al., 1988). As earlier research has shown and this study also confirms, the LLL narrative creates differences between those who are included and those who fall behind and are excluded from the learning society ideal. Educability expresses socially constructed interpretations on who benefit from education and who should be educated and how. The presupposition in this study has been that contradictions between the LLL narrative and the so-called traditional constructions of educability are likely to be constructed as the former relies on the all-inclusive interpretation of educability and the latter on the meritocratic model of educating individuals based on their innate abilities. The school system continues to uphold the institutionalized ethos of educability that ranks students into the categories “bright”, “mediocre”, and “poor” (Räty & Snellman, 1998) on the basis of their abilities, including gender-related differences as well as differences based on social class. Traditional age-related norms also persist, for example general upper secondary education is normatively completed in youth and not in adulthood, and the formal learning context continues to outweigh both non-formal and informal learning. Moreover, in this study the construction of social differences in relation to educability and, thereafter unequal access to education has been examined in relation to age, social class, and gender. The biographical work of the research participants forms a peephole that permits the examination of the dilemmatic nature of the constructions of educability in this study. Formal general upper secondary education in adulthood is situated on the border between the traditional and the LLL narratives on educability: participation in GUSSA inevitably means that one’s ability and competence as a student and learner becomes reassessed through the assessment criteria maintained by schools, whereas according to the principles of LLL everyone is educable; everyone is encouraged to learn throughout their lives regardless of age, social class, or gender. This study is situated in the field of adult education, sociology of education, and social psychological research on educability, having also been informed by feminist studies. Moreover, this study contributes to narrative life history research combining the structural analysis of narratives (Labov & Waletzky, 1997), i.e. mini-stories within life history, with the analysis of the life histories as structural and thematic wholes and the creation of coherence in them; thus, permitting both micro and macro analyses. On accounting for the discontinuity created by participation in general upper secondary school study in adulthood and not normatively in youth, the GUSSA students construct coherence in relation to their ability and competence as students and learners. The seven case studies illuminate the social differences constructed in relation to educability, i.e. social class, gender, age, and the “new category of student and learner”. In the data of this study, i.e. 20 general upper secondary school adult graduates’ narrative life histories primarily generated through interviews, two main coherence patterns of the adult educable subject emerge. The first performance-oriented pattern displays qualities that are closely related to the principles of LLL. Contrary to the principles of lifewide learning, however, the documentation of one’s competence through formal qualifications outweighs non-formal and informal learning in preparation for future change and the competition for further education, professional careers, and higher social positions. The second flexible learning pattern calls into question the status of formal, especially theoretical and academically oriented education; inner development is seen as more important than such external signs of development — grades and certificates. Studying and learning is constructed as a hobby and as a means to a more satisfactory life as opposed to a socially and culturally valued serious occupation leading to further education and career development. Consequently, as a curious, active, and independent learner, this educable but not readily employable subject is pushed into the periphery of lifelong learning. These two coherence patterns of the adult educable subject illuminate who is to be educated and how. The educable and readily employable LLL subject is to participate in formal education in order to achieve qualifications for working life, whereas the educable but not employable subject may utilize lifewide learning for her/his own pleasure. Key words: adult education, general upper secondary school for adults, educability, lifelong learning, narrative life history

Suhteessa kohteeseen ja suhteessa toisiin : Oppiminen ja vuorovaikutus opettajaopiskelijoiden suunnittelutapaamisessa

Objectives. In this research I analyzed the learning process of teacher students in a planning meeting using the expansive learning cycle and types of interaction approaches. In activity theory framework the expansive learning cycle has been applied widely in analyzing learning processes taking several years. However, few studies exist utilizing expansive cycles in analyzing short single meetings. In the activity theory framework talk and interaction have been analyzed using following types of interaction: coordination, cooperation and communication. In these studies single interaction situations have been analyzed, in which the status and power positions of participants has been very different. Interactions of self-directed teams, in which the participants are equal, have been examined very little. I am not aware of any studies, in which both learning actions of the expansive cycle and types of interaction by analyzing the same data would have been utilized. The aim of my study was to describe the process of collaborative innovative learning in a situation where the student group tries to accomplish a broad and ill-defined learning task. I aim to describe, how this planning process proceeds through different phases of learning actions of the expansive cycle. My goal is to understand and describe the transformations in the quality of interaction and transitions which are related to it. Another goal of this study is to specify the possible similarities and differences between expansive learning and types of interactions. Methods. Data of this study consisted of videotaped meetings, which were part of the study module for class teacher degree. The first meeting of the study module was chosen to be the primary research material. Five students were present in the group meeting. Transcription of the conversation was analyzed by classifying the turns of conversation following phases of the expansive cycle. After that the material was categorized again by using types of interaction. Results and conclusions. As a result of this study I was able to trace all the phases of the expansive cycle except one. Also, I was able to identify all interaction types. When I compared the two modes of analysis side by side I was able to find connecting main phases. Thus I was able to identify the interdependence between the two ways of analysis on a higher level, although I was not able to notice correlation on the level of individual phases. Based on this, I conclude that learning of the group was simultaneously specification and formulation of the object at the different phases of expansive learning and transformation of the quality of the interaction while searching for the common object.

Evaluate traffic noise level based on traffic microsimulation combined with a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sized trucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Franz Matthiesen and his mother Aenny Catzenstein nee Gottschalk; Oslo Court, London.

At the time Franz was ill with cancer but Aenny did not know.

Nondeactivating Nanosized Ionic Catalysts for Water-Gas Shift Reaction

The water-gas shift reaction (WGS) is an important reaction to produce hydrogen. In this study, we have synthesized nanosized catalysts where Pt ion is substituted in the +2 state in TiO2, CeO2, and Ce1-xTixO2-delta. These catalysts have been characterized by X-ray diffraction and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and it has been shown that Pt2+ in these reducible oxides result in solid solutions like Ti0.99Pt0.01O2-delta, Ce0.8Ti0.15Pt0.02O2-delta, and Ce0.98Pt0.02O2-delta. These catalysts were tested for the water gas shift reaction both ill the presence and absence of hydrogen. It was shown that Ti0.99Pt0.01O2-delta exhibited higher catalytic activity than Ce0.83Ti0.15Pt0.02O2-delta and Ce0.98Pt0.02O2-delta. Further, experiments were conducted to determine the deactivation of these catalysts. There was no sintering of Pt and no carbonate formation; therefore, the catalyst did not deactivate even after prolonged reaction. There was no carbonate formation because of the highly acidic nature of Ti4+ ions in the catalysts.

Predictors of disability retirement: From early intentions to retirement

The strong tendency of elderly employees to retire early and the simultaneous aging of the population have been major topics of policy and scientific debate. A key concern has been the financing of future pension schemes and possible labour shortage, especially in social and health services within the public sector. The aging of the population is inevitable, but efforts can be made to prevent or postpone early exit from the labour force, e.g., by identifying and intervening in the factors that contribute to the process of early retirement due to disability. The associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health and different psychosocial factors with the process of disability retirement are still poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health, work and family related psychosocial factors and experiences of earlier life stages with the process of disability retirement. The data were derived from the Helsinki Health Study (HHS, N=8960) and the Health and Social Support Study (HeSSup, N=25 901). The Helsinki Health Study is an ongoing employee cohort study among middle-aged women and men. The Health and Social Support Study is an ongoing longitudinal study of a working-age sample representative of the Finnish population. The analyses were restricted to respondents 40 years of age or older. Age and gender adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated. Associations were studied by using logistic, multinomial and Cox regression. Strong intentions to retire early were common among employees. Poor mental health, unfavourable working conditions and work-to-family conflicts were clearly associated with increased intentions to retire early. Strong intentions to retire early predicted disability retirement. Risk of disability retirement increased in a dose-response manner with increasing number of childhood adversities. Poor mental and somatic health, life dissatisfaction, heavy alcohol consumption, current smoking, obesity and low socioeconomic status were also predictors of disability retirement. The impact of poor mental health and adverse experiences from earlier life stages, work and family related psychosocial factors, e.g., work-family interface, the subjective experience of well-being and health related risk behaviours on the process of disability retirement should be recognised. Preventive measures against disability retirement should be launched before subjective experience of ill health, work disability and strong intentions to retire early emerge.