977 resultados para model order estimation


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This thesis concentrates on developing a practical local approach methodology based on micro mechanical models for the analysis of ductile fracture of welded joints. Two major problems involved in the local approach, namely the dilational constitutive relation reflecting the softening behaviour of material, and the failure criterion associated with the constitutive equation, have been studied in detail. Firstly, considerable efforts were made on the numerical integration and computer implementation for the non trivial dilational Gurson Tvergaard model. Considering the weaknesses of the widely used Euler forward integration algorithms, a family of generalized mid point algorithms is proposed for the Gurson Tvergaard model. Correspondingly, based on the decomposition of stresses into hydrostatic and deviatoric parts, an explicit seven parameter expression for the consistent tangent moduli of the algorithms is presented. This explicit formula avoids any matrix inversion during numerical iteration and thus greatly facilitates the computer implementation of the algorithms and increase the efficiency of the code. The accuracy of the proposed algorithms and other conventional algorithms has been assessed in a systematic manner in order to highlight the best algorithm for this study. The accurate and efficient performance of present finite element implementation of the proposed algorithms has been demonstrated by various numerical examples. It has been found that the true mid point algorithm (a = 0.5) is the most accurate one when the deviatoric strain increment is radial to the yield surface and it is very important to use the consistent tangent moduli in the Newton iteration procedure. Secondly, an assessment of the consistency of current local failure criteria for ductile fracture, the critical void growth criterion, the constant critical void volume fraction criterion and Thomason's plastic limit load failure criterion, has been made. Significant differences in the predictions of ductility by the three criteria were found. By assuming the void grows spherically and using the void volume fraction from the Gurson Tvergaard model to calculate the current void matrix geometry, Thomason's failure criterion has been modified and a new failure criterion for the Gurson Tvergaard model is presented. Comparison with Koplik and Needleman's finite element results shows that the new failure criterion is fairly accurate indeed. A novel feature of the new failure criterion is that a mechanism for void coalescence is incorporated into the constitutive model. Hence the material failure is a natural result of the development of macroscopic plastic flow and the microscopic internal necking mechanism. By the new failure criterion, the critical void volume fraction is not a material constant and the initial void volume fraction and/or void nucleation parameters essentially control the material failure. This feature is very desirable and makes the numerical calibration of void nucleation parameters(s) possible and physically sound. Thirdly, a local approach methodology based on the above two major contributions has been built up in ABAQUS via the user material subroutine UMAT and applied to welded T joints. By using the void nucleation parameters calibrated from simple smooth and notched specimens, it was found that the fracture behaviour of the welded T joints can be well predicted using present methodology. This application has shown how the damage parameters of both base material and heat affected zone (HAZ) material can be obtained in a step by step manner and how useful and capable the local approach methodology is in the analysis of fracture behaviour and crack development as well as structural integrity assessment of practical problems where non homogeneous materials are involved. Finally, a procedure for the possible engineering application of the present methodology is suggested and discussed.

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The objective of the thesis was to develop a competitors’ financial performance monitoring model for management reporting. The research consisted of the selections of the comparison group and the performance meters as well as the actual creation of the model. A brief analysis of the current situation was also made. The aim of the results was to improve the financial reporting quality in the case organization by adding external business environment observation to the management reports. The comparison group for the case company was selected to include five companies that were all involved in power equipment engineering and project type business. The most limiting factor related to the comparison group selection was the availability of quarterly financial reporting. The most suitable performance meters were defined to be the developments of revenue, order backlog and EBITDA. These meters should be monitored systematically on quarterly basis and reported to the company management in a brief and informative way. The monitoring model was based on spreadsheet construction with key characteristics being usability, flexibility and simplicity. The model acts as a centered storage for financial competitor information as well as a reporting tool. The current market situation is strongly affected by the economic boom in the recent years and future challenges can be clearly seen in declining order backlogs. The case company has succeeded well related to its comparison group during the observation period since its business volume and profitability have developed in the best way.

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The use of two-dimensional spectral analysis applied to terrain heights in order to determine characteristic terrain spatial scales and its subsequent use for the objective definition of an adequate grid size required to resolve terrain forcing are presented in this paper. In order to illustrate the influence of grid size, atmospheric flow in a complex terrain area of the Spanish east coast is simulated by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical model using different horizontal grid resolutions. In this area, a grid size of 2 km is required to account for 95% of terrain variance. Comparison among results of the different simulations shows that, although the main wind behavior does not change dramatically, some small-scale features appear when using a resolution of 2 km or finer. Horizontal flow pattern differences are significant both in the nighttime, when terrain forcing is more relevant, and in the daytime, when thermal forcing is dominant. Vertical structures also are investigated, and results show that vertical advection is influenced highly by the horizontal grid size during the daytime period. The turbulent kinetic energy and potential temperature vertical cross sections show substantial differences in the structure of the planetary boundary layer for each model configuration

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Standard indirect Inference (II) estimators take a given finite-dimensional statistic, Z_{n} , and then estimate the parameters by matching the sample statistic with the model-implied population moment. We here propose a novel estimation method that utilizes all available information contained in the distribution of Z_{n} , not just its first moment. This is done by computing the likelihood of Z_{n}, and then estimating the parameters by either maximizing the likelihood or computing the posterior mean for a given prior of the parameters. These are referred to as the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) and Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimators, respectively. We show that the IL estimators are first-order equivalent to the corresponding moment-based II estimator that employs the optimal weighting matrix. However, due to higher-order features of Z_{n} , the IL estimators are higher order efficient relative to the standard II estimator. The likelihood of Z_{n} will in general be unknown and so simulated versions of IL estimators are developed. Monte Carlo results for a structural auction model and a DSGE model show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

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During the most recent years the Regió de Girona has clearly transformed its territorial model, superimposing an emerging clearly hierarchic structure to a polycentric one. This way, Girona and its urban area has gained a diversified centrality. This transformation, though, needs a clearly defined project that, adapted to the current dynamism, makes explicit and supports or corrects the resultant territorial model in order to avoid infrastructural shortages, territorial imbalances, resource wasting and negative impact on the environment

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Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

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Potential parameters sensitivity analysis for helium unlike molecules, HeNe, HeAr, HeKr and HeXe is the subject of this work. Number of bound states these rare gas dimers can support, for different angular momentum, will be presented and discussed. The variable phase method, together with the Levinson's theorem, is used to explore the quantum scattering process at very low collision energy using the Tang and Toennies potential. These diatomic dimers can support a bound state even for relative angular momentum equal to five, as in HeXe. Vibrational excited states, with zero angular momentum, are also possible for HeKr and HeXe. Results from sensitive analysis will give acceptable order of magnitude on potentials parameters.

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The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum) shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-)quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u) was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z) shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z) ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

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On the basis of theoretical B3LYP calculations, Yáñez and co-workers (J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2012, 8, 2293) illustrated that beryllium ions are capable of significantly modulating (changing) the electronic structures of imidazole. In this computational organic chemistry study, the interaction of this β-amino acid and five model Lewis acids (BeF1+, Be2+, AlF2(1+), AlF2+, and Al3+) were investigated. Several aspects were addressed: natural bond orbitals, including second order perturbation analysis of intra-molecular charge delocalization and the natural population analysis atomic charges; molecular geometries; selected infrared stretching frequencies (C-N, C-O, and N-H), and selected ¹H-NMR chemical shifts. The data illustrate that this interaction can weaken the H-O bond and goes beyond strengthening the intra-molecular hydrogen bond (N...H-O) to cause a spontaneous transfer of the proton to the nitrogen atom in five cases generating zwitterion structures. Many new features are observed. Most importantly, the zwitterion structures include a stabilizing hydrogen bond (N-H...O) that varies in relative strength according to the Lewis acid. These findings explain the experimental observations of α-amino acids (for example: J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2001, 123, 3577) and are the first reported fundamental electronic structure characterization of β-amino acids in zwitterion form.

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The dissertation is based on four articles dealing with recalcitrant lignin water purification. Lignin, a complicated substance and recalcitrant to most treatment technologies, inhibits seriously pulp and paper industry waste management. Therefore, lignin is studied, using WO as a process method for its degradation. A special attention is paid to the improvement in biodegradability and the reduction of lignin content, since they have special importance for any following biological treatment. In most cases wet oxidation is not used as a complete ' mineralization method but as a pre treatment in order to eliminate toxic components and to reduce the high level of organics produced. The combination of wet oxidation with a biological treatment can be a good option due to its effectiveness and its relatively low technology cost. The literature part gives an overview of Advanced Oxidation Processes (AOPs). A hot oxidation process, wet oxidation (WO), is investigated in detail and is the AOP process used in the research. The background and main principles of wet oxidation, its industrial applications, the combination of wet oxidation with other water treatment technologies, principal reactions in WO, and key aspects of modelling and reaction kinetics are presented. There is also given a wood composition and lignin characterization (chemical composition, structure and origin), lignin containing waters, lignin degradation and reuse possibilities, and purification practices for lignin containing waters. The aim of the research was to investigate the effect of the operating conditions of WO, such as temperature, partial pressure of oxygen, pH and initial concentration of wastewater, on the efficiency, and to enhance the process and estimate optimal conditions for WO of recalcitrant lignin waters. Two different waters are studied (a lignin water model solution and debarking water from paper industry) to give as appropriate conditions as possible. Due to the great importance of re using and minimizing the residues of industries, further research is carried out using residual ash of an Estonian power plant as a catalyst in wet oxidation of lignin-containing water. Developing a kinetic model that includes in the prediction such parameters as TOC gives the opportunity to estimate the amount of emerging inorganic substances (degradation rate of waste) and not only the decrease of COD and BOD. The degradation target compound, lignin is included into the model through its COD value (CODligning). Such a kinetic model can be valuable in developing WO treatment processes for lignin containing waters, or other wastewaters containing one or more target compounds. In the first article, wet oxidation of "pure" lignin water was investigated as a model case with the aim of degrading lignin and enhancing water biodegradability. The experiments were performed at various temperatures (110 -190°C), partial oxygen pressures (0.5 -1.5 MPa) and pH (5, 9 and 12). The experiments showed that increasing the temperature notably improved the processes efficiency. 75% lignin reduction was detected at the lowest temperature tested and lignin removal improved to 100% at 190°C. The effect of temperature on the COD removal rate was lower, but clearly detectable. 53% of organics were oxidized at 190°C. The effect of pH occurred mostly on lignin removal. Increasing the pH enhanced the lignin removal efficiency from 60% to nearly 100%. A good biodegradability ratio (over 0.5) was generally achieved. The aim of the second article was to develop a mathematical model for "pure" lignin wet oxidation using lumped characteristics of water (COD, BOD, TOC) and lignin concentration. The model agreed well with the experimental data (R2 = 0.93 at pH 5 and 12) and concentration changes during wet oxidation followed adequately the experimental results. The model also showed correctly the trend of biodegradability (BOD/COD) changes. In the third article, the purpose of the research was to estimate optimal conditions for wet oxidation (WO) of debarking water from the paper industry. The WO experiments were' performed at various temperatures, partial oxygen pressures and pH. The experiments showed that lignin degradation and organics removal are affected remarkably by temperature and pH. 78-97% lignin reduction was detected at different WO conditions. Initial pH 12 caused faster removal of tannins/lignin content; but initial pH 5 was more effective for removal of total organics, represented by COD and TOC. Most of the decrease in organic substances concentrations occurred in the first 60 minutes. The aim of the fourth article was to compare the behaviour of two reaction kinetic models, based on experiments of wet oxidation of industrial debarking water under different conditions. The simpler model took into account only the changes in COD, BOD and TOC; the advanced model was similar to the model used in the second article. Comparing the results of the models, the second model was found to be more suitable for describing the kinetics of wet oxidation of debarking water. The significance of the reactions involved was compared on the basis of the model: for instance, lignin degraded first to other chemically oxidizable compounds rather than directly to biodegradable products. Catalytic wet oxidation of lignin containing waters is briefly presented at the end of the dissertation. Two completely different catalysts were used: a commercial Pt catalyst and waste power plant ash. CWO showed good performance using 1 g/L of residual ash gave lignin removal of 86% and COD removal of 39% at 150°C (a lower temperature and pressure than with WO). It was noted that the ash catalyst caused a remarkable removal rate for lignin degradation already during the pre heating for `zero' time, 58% of lignin was degraded. In general, wet oxidation is not recommended for use as a complete mineralization method, but as a pre treatment phase to eliminate toxic or difficultly biodegradable components and to reduce the high level of organics. Biological treatment is an appropriate post treatment method since easily biodegradable organic matter remains after the WO process. The combination of wet oxidation with subsequent biological treatment can be an effective option for the treatment of lignin containing waters.

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Extinction coefficients (e) changes of manganese phthalocyanine (Mn-Pc) were studied in different organic solvents and related to solvent polarity scales; (Kosower's values (Z), Dimroth's values (E T), donor numbers (DN) and linear solvation energy relationships (LSER) or linear free energy relationships (LFER));, theoretical molecular orbital calculations and ligand/solvent coordination processes in order to predict molecular interaction with the medium and identification of predominant intermolecular forces.

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Mix marketing and relationships marketing are two major approaches that often form a basis for organizational marketing planning. The superiority of these approaches has been debated for long without any rational conclusion. Lately there have been studies indicating that both of the major approaches are many times used side by side in marketing planning. There have been also studies suggesting that even combining the mix marketing and relationship marketing approaches might be possible. The aim of this thesis is to provide knowledge about the usage of mix marketing and relationship marketing approaches in organizations and possibilities in combining the approaches. Also a settlement of strengths, weaknesses and risks of combining is intended to provide. The objectives were met through the literature and a case study research. In the case study, interviews were conducted in order to gain a deeper knowledge about marketing planning in various organizations. Based on this study, the combining of the major marketing approaches will be possible and even recommended when keeping in mind few aspects which might cause some troubles in the combining process.

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Direct leaching is an alternative to conventional roast-leach-electrowin (RLE) zinc production method. The basic reaction of direct leach method is the oxidation of sphalerite concentrate in acidic liquid by ferric iron. The reaction mechanism and kinetics, mass transfer and current modifications of zinc concentrate direct leaching process are considered. Particular attention is paid to the oxidation-reduction cycle of iron and its role in direct leaching of zinc concentrate, since it can be one of the limiting factors of the leaching process under certain conditions. The oxidation-reduction cycle of iron was experimentally studied with goal of gaining new knowledge for developing the direct leaching of zinc concentrate. In order to obtain this aim, ferrous iron oxidation experiments were carried out. Affect of such parameters as temperature, pressure, sulfuric acid concentration, ferrous iron and copper concentrations was studied. Based on the experimental results, mathematical model of the ferrous iron oxidation rate was developed. According to results obtained during the study, the reaction rate orders for ferrous iron concentration, oxygen concentration and copper concentration are 0.777, 0.652 and 0.0951 respectively. Values predicted by model were in good concordance with the experimental results. The reliability of estimated parameters was evaluated by MCMC analysis which showed good parameters reliability.

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The purpose of this study was to develop co-operation between business units of the company operating in graphic industry. The development was done by searching synergy opportunities between these business units. The final aim was to form a business model, which is based on co-operation of these business units.The literature review of this thesis examines synergies and especially the process concerning the search and implementation of synergies. Also the concept of business model and its components are examined. The research was done by using qualitative research method. The main data acquiring method to the empirical part was theme interviews. The data was analyzed using thematisation and content analysis.The results of the study include seven identified possible synergies and a business model, which is based on the co-operation of the business units. The synergy opportunities are evaluated and the implementation order of the synergies is suggested. The presented synergies create the base for the proposed business model.

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This dissertation is based on 5 articles which deal with reaction mechanisms of the following selected industrially important organic reactions: 1. dehydrocyclization of n-butylbenzene to produce naphthalene 2. dehydrocyclization of 1-(p-tolyl)-2-methylbutane (MB) to produce 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene 3. esterification of neopentyl glycol (NPG) with different carboxylic acids to produce monoesters 4. skeletal isomerization of 1-pentene to produce 2-methyl-1-butene and 2-methyl-2-butene The results of initial- and integral-rate experiments of n-butylbenzene dehydrocyclization over selfmade chromia/alumina catalyst were applied when investigating reaction 2. Reaction 2 was performed using commercial chromia/alumina of different acidity, platina on silica and vanadium/calcium/alumina as catalysts. On all catalysts used for the dehydrocyclization, major reactions were fragmentation of MB and 1-(p-tolyl)-2-methylbutenes (MBes), dehydrogenation of MB, double bond transfer, hydrogenation and 1,6-cyclization of MBes. Minor reactions were 1,5-cyclization of MBes and methyl group fragmentation of 1,6- cyclization products. Esterification reactions of NPG were performed using three different carboxylic acids: propionic, isobutyric and 2-ethylhexanoic acid. Commercial heterogeneous gellular (Dowex 50WX2), macroreticular (Amberlyst 15) type resins and homogeneous para-toluene sulfonic acid were used as catalysts. At first NPG reacted with carboxylic acids to form corresponding monoester and water. Then monoester esterified with carboxylic acid to form corresponding diester. In disproportionation reaction two monoester molecules formed NPG and corresponding diester. All these three reactions can attain equilibrium. Concerning esterification, water was removed from the reactor in order to prevent backward reaction. Skeletal isomerization experiments of 1-pentene were performed over HZSM-22 catalyst. Isomerization reactions of three different kind were detected: double bond, cis-trans and skeletal isomerization. Minor side reaction were dimerization and fragmentation. Monomolecular and bimolecular reaction mechanisms for skeletal isomerization explained experimental results almost equally well. Pseudohomogeneous kinetic parameters of reactions 1 and 2 were estimated by usual least squares fitting. Concerning reactions 3 and 4 kinetic parameters were estimated by the leastsquares method, but also the possible cross-correlation and identifiability of parameters were determined using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Finally using MCMC method, the estimation of model parameters and predictions were performed according to the Bayesian paradigm. According to the fitting results suggested reaction mechanisms explained experimental results rather well. When the possible cross-correlation and identifiability of parameters (Reactions 3 and 4) were determined using MCMC method, the parameters identified well, and no pathological cross-correlation could be seen between any parameter pair.