Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Global and diffuse solar irradiances in urban and rural areas in southeast Brazil

The seasonal evolution of daily and hourly values of global and diffuse solar radiation at the surface are compared for the cities of Sao Paulo and Botucatu, both located in Southeast Brazil and representative of urban and rural areas, respectively. The comparisons are based on measurements of global and diffuse solar irradiance carried out at the surface during a six year simultaneous period in these two cities. Despite the similar latitude and altitude, the seasonal evolution of daily values indicate that Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 7.8% less global irradiance in August and 5.1% less in June than Botucatu. On the other hand, Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 3.6% more diffuse irradiance in August and 15.6% more in June than Botucatu. The seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle confirms these differences and indicates that they are more pronounced during the afternoon. The regional differences are related to the distance from the Atlantic Ocean, systematic penetration of the sea breeze and daytime evolution of the particulate matter in Sao Paulo. An important mechanism controlling the spatial distribution of solar radiation, on a regional scale, is the sea breeze penetration in Sao Paulo, bringing moisture and maritime aerosol that in turn further increases the solar radiation scattering due to pollution and further reduces the intensity of the direct component of solar radiation at the surface. Surprisingly, under clear sky conditions the atmospheric attenuation of solar radiation in Botucatu during winter - the biomass burning period due to the sugar cane harvest - is equivalent to that at Sao Paulo City, indicating that the contamination during sugar cane harvest in Southeast Brazil has a large impact in the solar radiation field at the surface.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Immune Evasion of Leptospira Species by Acquisition of Human Complement Regulator C4BP

Leptospirosis is a spirochetal zoonotic disease of global distribution with a high incidence in tropical regions. In the last 15 years it has been recognized as an important emerging infectious disease due to the occurrence of large outbreaks in warm-climate countries and, occasionally, in temperate regions. Pathogenic leptospires efficiently colonize target organs after penetrating the host. Their invasiveness is attributed to the ability to multiply in blood, adhere to host cells, and penetrate into tissues. Therefore, they must be able to evade the innate host defense. The main purpose of the present study was to evaluate how several Leptospira strains evade the protective function of the complement system. The serum resistance of six Leptospira strains was analyzed. We demonstrate that the pathogenic strain isolated from infected hamsters avoids serum bactericidal activity more efficiently than the culture-attenuated or the nonpathogenic Leptospira strains. Moreover, both the alternative and the classical pathways of complement seem to be responsible for the killing of leptospires. Serum-resistant and serum-intermediate strains are able to bind C4BP, whereas the serum-sensitive strain Patoc I is not. Surface-bound C4BP promotes factor I-mediated cleavage of C4b. Accordingly, we found that pathogenic strains displayed reduced deposition of the late complement components C5 to C9 upon exposure to serum. We conclude that binding of C4BP contributes to leptospiral serum resistance against host complement.

On the Fucik spectrum of the Laplacian on a torus

We study the Fucik spectrum of the Laplacian on a two-dimensional torus T(2). Exploiting the invariance properties of the domain T(2) with respect to translations we obtain a good description of large parts of the spectrum. In particular, for each eigenvalue of the Laplacian we will find an explicit global curve in the Fucik spectrum which passes through this eigenvalue; these curves are ordered, and we will show that their asymptotic limits are positive. On the other hand, using a topological index based on the mentioned group invariance, we will obtain a variational characterization of global curves in the Fucik spectrum; also these curves emanate from the eigenvalues of the Laplacian, and we will show that they tend asymptotically to zero. Thus, we infer that the variational and the explicit curves cannot coincide globally, and that in fact many curve crossings must occur. We will give a bifurcation result which partially explains these phenomena. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global solutions for impulsive abstract partial differential equations

In this paper, we study the existence of global solutions for a class of impulsive abstract functional differential equation. An application involving a parabolic system With impulses is considered. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of the viscous Cahn-Hilliard equation

We study generalized viscous Cahn-Hilliard problems with nonlinearities satisfying critical growth conditions in W-0(1,p)(Omega), where Omega is a bounded smooth domain in R-n, n >= 3. In the critical growth case, we prove that the problems are locally well posed and obtain a bootstrapping procedure showing that the solutions are classical. For p = 2 and almost critical dissipative nonlinearities we prove global well posedness, existence of global attractors in H-0(1)(Omega) and, uniformly with respect to the viscosity parameter, L-infinity(Omega) bounds for the attractors. Finally, we obtain a result on continuity of regular attractors which shows that, if n = 3, 4, the attractor of the Cahn-Hilliard problem coincides (in a sense to be specified) with the attractor for the corresponding semilinear heat equation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of electric fields on ultracold Rydberg atom interactions

The behaviour of interacting ultracold Rydberg atoms in both constant electric fields and laser fields is important for designing experiments and constructing realistic models of them. In this paper, we briefly review our prior work and present new results on how electric fields affect interacting ultracold Rydberg atoms. Specifically, we address the topics of constant background electric fields on Rydberg atom pair excitation and laser-induced Stark shifts on pair excitation.

Timing and structure of the 8.2 kyr BP event inferred from delta(18)O records of stalagmites from China, Oman, and Brazil

Oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from China and Oman reveal a weak summer monsoon event, with a double-plunging structure, that started 8.21 +/- 0.02 kyr B. P. An identical but antiphased pattern is also evident in two stalagmite records from eastern Brazil, indicating that the South American Summer Monsoon was intensified during the 8.2 kyr B. P. event. These records demonstrate that the event was of global extent and synchronous within dating errors of <50 years. In comparison with recent model simulations, it is plausible that the 8.2 kyr B. P. event can be tied in changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation triggered by a glacial lake draining event. This, in turn, affected North Atlantic climate and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in the observed low-latitude monsoonal precipitation patterns.

Continuous GRASP with a local active-set method for bound-constrained global optimization

Global optimization seeks a minimum or maximum of a multimodal function over a discrete or continuous domain. In this paper, we propose a hybrid heuristic-based on the CGRASP and GENCAN methods-for finding approximate solutions for continuous global optimization problems subject to box constraints. Experimental results illustrate the relative effectiveness of CGRASP-GENCAN on a set of benchmark multimodal test functions.

On a product formula for the Conley-Zelmder index of symplectic paths and its applications

Using invariance by fixed-endpoints homotopies and a generalized notion of symplectic Cayley transform, we prove a product formula for the Conley-Zehnder index of continuous paths with arbitrary endpoints in the symplectic group. We discuss two applications of the formula, to the metaplectic group and to periodic solutions of Hamiltonian systems.

Role of sigma(54) in the regulation of genes involved in type I and type IV pili biogenesis in Xylella fastidiosa

The phytopathogen Xylella fastidiosa produces long type IV pili and short type I pili involved in motility and adhesion. In this work, we have investigated the role of sigma factor sigma(54) (RpoN) in the regulation of fimbrial biogenesis in X. fastidiosa. An rpoN null mutant was constructed from the non-pathogenic citrus strain J1a12, and microarray analyses of global gene expression comparing the wild type and rpoN mutant strains showed few genes exhibiting differential expression. In particular, gene pilA1 (XF2542), which encodes the structural pilin protein of type IV pili, showed decreased expression in the rpoN mutant, whereas two-fold higher expression of an operon encoding proteins of type I pili was detected, as confirmed by quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) analysis. The transcriptional start site of pilA1 was determined by primer extension, downstream of a sigma(54)-dependent promoter. Microarray and qRT-PCR data demonstrated that expression of only one of the five pilA paralogues, pilA1, was significantly reduced in the rpoN mutant. The rpoN mutant made more biofilm than the wild type strain and presented a cell-cell aggregative phenotype. These results indicate that sigma(54) differentially regulates genes involved in type IV and type I fimbrial biogenesis, and is involved in biofilm formation in X. fastidiosa.