936 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability
Resumo:
This thesis examines two ongoing development projects that received financial support from international development organizations, and an alternative mining tax proposed by the academia. Chapter 2 explores the impact of commoditization of coffee on its export price in Ethiopia. The first part of the chapter traces how the Ethiopian’s current coffee trade system and commoditization come to be. Using regression analysis, the second part tests and confirms the hypothesis that commoditization has led to a reduction in coffee export price. Chapter 3 conducts a cost-benefit analysis on a controversial, liquefied natural gas export project in Peru that sought to export one-third of the country’s proven natural gas reserves. While the country can receive royalty and corporate income tax in the short and medium term, these benefits are dwarfed by the future costs of paying for alternative energy after gas depletion. The conclusion is robust for a variety of future energy-price and energy-demand scenarios. Chapter 4 quantifies through simulation the economic distortions of two common mining taxes, the royalty and ad-valorem tax, vis-à-vis the resource rent tax. The latter is put forward as a better mining tax instrument on account of its non-distortionary nature. The rent tax, however, necessitates additional administrative burdens and induces tax-avoidance behavior, both leading to a net loss of tax revenue. By quantifying the distortions of royalty and the ad-valorem tax, one can establish the maximum loss that can be incurred by the rent tax. Simulation results indicate that the distortion of the ad-valorem tax is quite modest. If implemented, the rent tax is likely to result in a greater loss. While the subject matters may appear diverse, they are united by one theme. These initiatives were endorsed and supported by authorities and development agencies in the aim of furthering economic development and efficiency, but they are unlikely to fulfill the goal. Lessons for international development can be learnt from successful stories as well as from unsuccessful ones.
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How do the magnetic fields of massive stars evolve over time? Are their gyrochronological ages consistent with ages inferred from evolutionary tracks? Why do most stars predicted to host Centrifugal Magnetospheres (CMs) display no H$\alpha$ emission? Does plasma escape from CMs via centrifugal breakout events, or by a steady-state leakage mechanism? This thesis investigates these questions via a population study with a sample of 51 magnetic early B-type stars. The longitudinal magnetic field \bz~was measured from Least Squares Deconvolution profiles extracted from high-resolution spectropolarimetric data. New rotational periods $P_{\rm rot}$ were determined for 15 stars from \bz, leaving only 3 stars for which $P_{\rm rot}$ is unknown. Projected rotational velocities \vsini~were measured from multiple spectral lines. Effective temperatures and surface gravities were measured via ionization balances and line profile fitting of H Balmer lines. Fundamental physical parameters, \bz, \vsini, and $P_{\rm rot}$ were then used to determine radii, masses, ages, dipole oblique rotator model, stellar wind, magnetospheric, and spindown parameters using a Monte Carlo approach that self-consistently calculates all parameters while accounting for all available constraints on stellar properties. Dipole magnetic field strengths $B_{\rm d}$ follow a log-normal distribution similar to that of Ap stars, and decline over time in a fashion consistent with the expected conservation of fossil magnetic flux. $P_{\rm rot}$ increases with fractional main sequence age, mass, and $B_{\rm d}$, as expected from magnetospheric braking. However, comparison of evolutionary track ages to maximum spindown ages $t_{\rm S,max}$ shows that initial rotation fractions may be far below critical for stars with $M_*>10 M_\odot$. Computing $t_{\rm S,max}$ with different mass-loss prescriptions indicates that the mass-loss rates of B-type stars are likely much lower than expected from extrapolation from O-type stars. Stars with H$\alpha$ in emission and absorption occupy distinct regions in the updated rotation-magnetic confinement diagram: H$\alpha$-bright stars are found to be younger, more rapidly rotating, and more strongly magnetized than the general population. Emission strength is sensitive both to the volume of the CM and to the mass-loss rate, favouring leakage over centrifugal breakout.
Resumo:
Numerous leukocyte populations are essential for pregnancy success. Uterine natural killer (uNK) cells are chief amongst these leukocytes and represent a unique lineage with limited cytotoxicity but abundant angiokine production. They possess a distinct phenotype of activating and inhibitory receptors that recognize major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules, such as the killer immunoglobulin like receptors (KIRs; mouse Ly49), and MHC-independent activating receptors, including the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) and natural cytotoxicity receptor 1 (NCR1). While the roles of MHC-dependent receptors are widely addressed in pregnancy, MHC-independent receptors are relatively unstudied. This thesis investigated the roles of MHC-independent receptors in promotion of mouse pregnancy and characterized early leukocyte interactions in the presence and absence of NCR1. It was hypothesized that loss of MHC-independent receptors impairs uNK cell development resulting in aberrations in leukocyte function and decidual vasculature. Implantation sites from Ahr-/- and Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice were assessed using whole mount in situ immunohistochemistry (WM-IHC) and histochemical techniques. Leukocyte interactions identified during preliminary WM-IHC studies were confirmed as immune synapses. The novel identification of immune synapses in early mouse pregnancy compelled further examination of leukocyte conjugates in wildtype C57BL/6 and Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice. In Ahr-/- and Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice, receptor loss resulted in reduced uNK cell diameters, impaired decidual vasculature, and failures in spiral artery remodeling. Ahr-/- mice had severe fertility deficits whereas Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice had increased fetal resorption indicating differing receptor requirements in pregnancy success. NCR1 loss primarily affected uNK cell maturation and function as identified by alterations in granule ultrastructure, lytic protein expression, and angiokine production. Leukocyte conjugates were frequent in early C57BL/6 decidua basalis and included uNK cells conjugating first with antigen presenting cells and then with T cells. Overall conjugate formation was reduced in the absence of NCR1, but specific uNK cell conjugations were unaffected by receptor loss. While KIR-MHC interactions are associated with numerous pregnancy complications in humans, the role of other uNK cell receptors are not well characterized. These results illustrate the importance of MHC-independent receptors in uNK cell activation during early pregnancy in mice and encourage further studies of pregnancy complications that may occur independently of maternal KIR-MHC contributions.
Resumo:
The Pico de Navas landslide was a large-magnitude rotational movement, affecting 50x106m3 of hard to soft rocks. The objectives of this study were: (1) to characterize the landslide in terms of geology, geomorphological features and geotechnical parameters; and (2) to obtain an adequate geomechanical model to comprehensively explain its rupture, considering topographic, hydro-geological and geomechanical conditions. The rupture surface crossed, from top to bottom: (a) more than 200 m of limestone and clay units of the Upper Cretaceous, affected by faults; and (b) the Albian unit of Utrillas facies composed of silty sand with clay (Kaolinite) of the Lower Cretaceous. This sand played an important role in the basal failure of the slide due to the influence of fine particles (silt and clay), which comprised on average more than 70% of the sand, and the high content presence of kaolinite (>40%) in some beds. Its geotechnical parameters are: unit weight (δ) = 19-23 KN/m3; friction angle (φ) = 13º-38º and cohesion (c) = 10-48 KN/m2. Its microstructure consists of accumulations of kaolinite crystals stuck to terrigenous grains, making clayey peds. We hypothesize that the presence of these aggregates was the internal cause of fluidification of this layer once wet. Besides the faulted structure of the massif, other conditioning factors of the movement were: the large load of the upper limestone layers; high water table levels; high water pore pressure; and the loss of strength due to wet conditions. The 3D simulation of the stability conditions concurs with our hypothesis. The landslide occurred in the Recent or Middle Holocene, certainly before at least 500 BC and possibly during a wet climate period. Today, it appears to be inactive. This study helps to understand the frequent slope instabilities all along the Iberian Range when facies Utrillas is present.
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Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene (Bartonian and Priabonian) sedimentary succession of the Pamplona Basin are described. This succession was accumulated in the western part of the South Pyrenean peripheral foreland basin and extends from deep-marine turbiditic (Ezkaba Sandstone Formation) to deltaic (Pamplona Marl, Ardanatz Sandstone and Ilundain Marl formations) and marginal marine deposits (Gendulain Formation). The micropalaeontological content is high. It is dominated by foraminifera, and common ostracods and other microfossils are also present. The fossil ichnoasssemblages include at least 23 ichnogenera and 28 ichnospecies indicative of Nereites, Cruziana, Glossifungites and ?Scoyenia-Mermia ichnofacies. Body macrofossils of 78 taxa corresponding to macroforaminifera, sponges, corals, bryozoans, brachiopods, annelids, molluscs, arthropods, echinoderms and vertebrates have been identified. Both the number of ichnotaxa and of species (e. g. bryozoans, molluscs and condrichthyans) may be considerably higher. Body fossil assemblages are comparable to those from the Eocene of the Nord Pyrenean area (Basque Coast), and also to those from the Eocene of the west-central and eastern part of South Pyrenean area (Aragon and Catalonia). At the European scale, the molluscs assemblages seem endemic from the Pyrenean area, although several Tethyan (Italy and Alps) and Northern elements (Paris basin and Normandy) have been recorded. Palaeontological data of studied sedimentary units fit well with the shallowing process that throughout the middle and late Eocene occurs in the area, according to the sedimentological and stratigraphical data.
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The study of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous deposits (Higueruelas, Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Formations) of the South Iberian Basin (NW Valencia, Spain) reveals new stratigraphic and sedimentological data, which have significant implications on the stratigraphic framework, depositional environments and age of these units. The Higueruelas Fm was deposited in a mid-inner carbonate platform where oncolitic bars migrated by the action of storms and where oncoid production progressively decreased towards the uppermost part of the unit. The overlying Villar del Arzobispo Fm has been traditionally interpreted as an inner platform-lagoon evolving into a tidal-flat. Here it is interpreted as an inner-carbonate platform affected by storms, where oolitic shoals protected a lagoon, which had siliciclastic inputs from the continent. The Aldea de Cortés Fm has been previously interpreted as a lagoon surrounded by tidal-flats and fluvial-deltaic plains. Here it is reinterpreted as a coastal wetland where siliciclastic muddy deposits interacted with shallow fresh to marine water bodies, aeolian dunes and continental siliciclastic inputs. The contact between the Higueruelas and Villar del Arzobispo Fms, classically defined as gradual, is also interpreted here as rapid. More importantly, the contact between the Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Fms, previously considered as unconformable, is here interpreted as gradual. The presence of Alveosepta in the Villar del Arzobispo Fm suggests that at least part of this unit is Kimmeridgian, unlike the previously assigned Late Tithonian-Middle Berriasian age. Consequently, the underlying Higueruelas Fm, previously considered Tithonian, should not be younger than Kimmeridgian. Accordingly, sedimentation of the Aldea de Cortés Fm, previously considered Valangian-Hauterivian, probably started during the Tithonian and it may be considered part of the regressive trend of the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous cycle. This is consistent with the dinosaur faunas, typically Jurassic, described in the Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Fms.
Systematic review of Late Jurassic sauropods from the Museu Geológico collections (Lisboa, Portugal)
Resumo:
The Museu Geológico collections house some of the first sauropod references of the Lusitanian Basin Upper Jurassic record, including the Lourinhasaurus alenquerensis and Lusotitan atalaiensis lectotypes, previously considered as new species of the Apatosaurus and Brachiosaurus genera, respectively. Several fragmentary specimens have been classical referred to those taxa, but the most part of these systematic attributions are not supported herein, excluding a caudal vertebra from Maceira (MG 8804) considered as cf. Lusotitan atalaiensis. From the material housed in the Museu Geológico were identified basal eusauropods (indeterminate eusauropods and turiasaurs) and neosauropods (indeterminate neosauropods, diplodods and camarasaurids and basal titanosauriforms). Middle caudal vertebrae with lateral fossae, ventral hollow border by pronounced ventrolateral crests and quadrangular cross-section suggest for the presence of diplodocine diplodocids in north area of the Lusitanian Basin Central Sector during the Late Jurassic. A humerus collected from Praia dos Frades (MG 4976) is attributed to cf. Duriatitan humerocristatus suggesting the presence of shared sauropod forms between the Portugal and United Kingdom during the Late Jurassic. Duriatitan is an indeterminate member of Eusauropoda and the discovery of new material in both territories is necessary to confirm this systematic approach. The studied material is in according with the previous recorded paleobiodiversity for the sauropod clade during the Portuguese Late Jurassic, which includes basal eusauropods (including turiasaurs), diplodocids and macronarians (including camarasaurids and basal titanosauriforms).
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Several landforms found in the fold-and-thrust belt area of Central Precordillera, Pre-Andes of Argentina, which were often associated with tectonic efforts, are in fact related to non-tectonic processes or gravitational superficial structures. These second-order structures, interpreted as gravitational collapse structures, have developed in the western flank of sierras de La Dehesa and Talacasto. These include rock-slides, rock falls, wrinkle folds, slip sheets and flaps, among others; which together constitute a monoclinal fold dipping between 30º and 60º to the west. Gravity collapse structures are parallel to the regional strike of the Sierra de la Dehesa and are placed in Ordovician limestones and dolomites. Their sloping towards the west, the presence of bed planes, fractures and joints; and the lithology (limestone interbedded with incompetent argillaceous banks) would have favored their occurrence. Movement of the detached structures has been controlled by lithology characteristics, as well as by bedding and joints. Detachment and initial transport of gravity collapse structures and rockslides in the western flank of the Sierra de la Dehesa were tightly controlled by three structural elements: 1) sliding surfaces developed on parallel bedded strata when dipping >30° in the slope direction; 2) Joint’s sets constitute lateral and transverse traction cracks which release extensional stresses and 3) Discontinuities fragmenting sliding surfaces. Some other factors that could be characterized as local (lithology, structure and topography) and as regional (high seismic activity and possibly wetter conditions during the postglacial period) were determining in favoring the steady loss of the western mountain side in the easternmost foothills of Central Precordillera.
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Calcitic belemnite rostra are usually employed to perform paleoenvironmental studies based on geochemical data. However, several questions, such as their original porosity and microstructure, remain open, despite they are essential to make accurate interpretations based on geochemical analyses.This paper revisits and enlightens some of these questions. Petrographic data demonstrate that calcite crystals of the rostrum solidum of belemnites grow from spherulites that successively develop along the apical line, resulting in a “regular spherulithic prismatic” microstructure. Radially arranged calcite crystals emerge and diverge from the spherulites: towards the apex, crystals grow until a new spherulite is formed; towards the external walls of the rostrum, the crystals become progressively bigger and prismatic. Adjacent crystals slightly vary in their c-axis orientation, resulting in undulose extinction. Concentric growth layering develops at different scales and is superimposed and traversed by a radial pattern, which results in the micro-fibrous texture that is observed in the calcite crystals in the rostra.Petrographic data demonstrate that single calcite crystals in the rostra have a composite nature, which strongly suggests that the belemnite rostra were originally porous. Single crystals consistently comprise two distinct zones or sectors in optical continuity: 1) the inner zone is fluorescent, has relatively low optical relief under transmitted light (TL) microscopy, a dark-grey color under backscatter electron microscopy (BSEM), a commonly triangular shape, a “patchy” appearance and relatively high Mg and Na contents; 2) the outer sector is non-fluorescent, has relatively high optical relief under TL, a light-grey color under BSEM and low Mg and Na contents. The inner and fluorescent sectors are interpreted to have formed first as a product of biologically controlled mineralization during belemnite skeletal growth and the non-fluorescent outer sectors as overgrowths of the former, filling the intra- and inter-crystalline porosity. This question has important implications for making paleoenvironmental and/or paleoclimatic interpretations based on geochemical analyses of belemnite rostra.Finally, the petrographic features of composite calcite crystals in the rostra also suggest the non-classical crystallization of belemnite rostra, as previously suggested by other authors.
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Este trabajo aborda la posible contribución de la radio al envejecimiento activo. La ética comunicativa actual debe tener presentes los colectivos más vulnerables de la sociedad y uno de ellos es el de la vejez. Se recogen en el artículo los principales datos demográficos sobre población mayor, cuyo crecimiento es tal que se hace necesario un cambio de paradigma a la hora de abordar estos cambios, lo que se conoce como envejecimiento activo. Se plantea que la radio, por sus peculiares características, puede contribuir a promover dicho paradigma. Pero es necesario partir de datos objetivos y el artículo concluye presentando los datos y gráficos de la investigación realizada sobre la presencia de la vejez en los magazines matinales de las cuatro emisoras más importantes del país.
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The Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha develops from the approval of the Spanish Constitution a whole executive and legislative branch to implement its policies on environmental protection. The new legislation (Law 9/1999, of 26 May) has pursued the conservation and the integral protection of the natural elements of the territory demanding to new criteria as such the environmental quality of ecosystems or the exceptional landscape. The spread and the declaration of new natural spaces have caused a double geographical and territorial model. First, natural spaces located in rural mountainous areas with depopulation and aging problems. And second, natural spaces situated in areas densely populated
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En este trabajo se calcula la tasa media de incisión fluvial del río Darro (Granada, España) durante el periodo 1890-2010 en su tramo urbano (sector Alhambra-Valparaíso). Para ello se han utilizado fotografías históricas en las que aparece dicho río, a partir de las cuales se ha podido determinar la posición del cauce en el momento en el que se realizaron las fotografías. La comparación con los escenarios actuales de tales imágenes ha permitido determinar la diferencia de altura del cauce a través de medidas de cotas absolutas realizadas mediante teodolito. Esta metodología ha permitido estimar de modo cuantitativo un índice de encajamiento vertical medio del río de 1,05 cm/año para el periodo histórico considerado.
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In this article music therapy is presented as a helpful tool to support the persons (and their relatives) living at the end of their life and, also, as a non pharmacological and complementary therapy in an integral and holistic medicine. What we report here comes from the direct experience, nourished after many years of interventions and reflections in oncology and palliative care units. We’re talking about silence, music, therapy, models and techniques. We will read and feel therapeutic sessions… but above all, we’re talking about life, conscience and love.
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This paper discusses some aspects of hunter-gatherer spatial organization in southern South Patagonia, in later times to 10,000 cal yr BP. Various methods of spatial analysis, elaborated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) were applied to the distributional pattern of archaeological sites with radiocarbon dates. The shift in the distributional pattern of chronological information was assessed in conjunction with other lines of evidence within a biogeographic framework. Accordingly, the varying degrees of occupation and integration of coastal and interior spaces in human spatial organization are explained in association with the adaptive strategies hunter-gatherers have used over time. Both are part of the same human response to changes in risk and uncertainty variability in the region in terms of resource availability and environmental dynamics.