Evaluación de la distribución de riesgos en los distintos modelos de asociación público-privada para la provisión de infraestructura carretera en México

México es de los pocos países en el mundo que ha realizado dos grandes programas para la construcción de autopistas en colaboración con el sector privado. El primero, fue realizado entre 1989 y 1994, con resultados adversos por el mal diseño del esquema de concesiones; y, el segundo con mejores resultados, en operación desde 2003 mediante nuevos modelos de asociación público-privada (APP). El objetivo de la presente investigación es estudiar los modelos de asociación público-privada empleados en México para la provisión de infraestructura carretera, realizando el análisis y la evaluación de la distribución de riesgos entre el sector público y privado en cada uno de los modelos con el propósito de establecer una propuesta de reasignación de riesgos para disminuir el costo global y la incertidumbre de los proyectos. En la primera parte se describe el estado actual del conocimiento de las asociaciones público-privadas para desarrollar proyectos de infraestructura, incluyendo los antecedentes, la definición y las tipologías de los esquemas APP, así como la práctica internacional de programas como el modelo británico Private Finance Initiative (PFI), resultados de proyectos en la Unión Europea y programas APP en otros países. También, se destaca la participación del sector privado en el financiamiento de la infraestructura del transporte de México en la década de 1990. En los capítulos centrales se aborda el estudio de los modelos APP que se han utilizado en el país en la construcción de la red de carreteras de alta capacidad. Se presentan las características y los resultados del programa de autopistas 1989-94, así como el rescate financiero y las medidas de reestructuración de los proyectos concesionados, aspectos que obligaron a las autoridades mexicanas a cambiar la normatividad para la aprobación de los proyectos según su rentabilidad, modificar la legislación de caminos y diseñar nuevos esquemas de colaboración entre el gobierno y el sector privado. Los nuevos modelos APP vigentes desde 2003 son: nuevo modelo de concesiones para desarrollar autopistas de peaje, modelo de proyectos de prestación de servicios (peaje sombra) para modernizar carreteras existentes y modelo de aprovechamiento de activos para concesionar autopistas de peaje en operación a cambio de un pago. De estos modelos se realizaron estudios de caso en los que se determinan medidas de desempeño operativo (niveles de tráfico, costos y plazos de construcción) y rentabilidad financiera (tasa interna de retorno y valor presente neto). En la última parte se efectúa la identificación, análisis y evaluación de los riesgos que afectaron los costos, el tiempo de ejecución y la rentabilidad de los proyectos de ambos programas. Entre los factores de riesgo analizados se encontró que los más importantes fueron: las condiciones macroeconómicas del país (inflación, producto interno bruto, tipo de cambio y tasa de interés), deficiencias en la planificación de los proyectos (diseño, derecho de vía, tarifas, permisos y estimación del tránsito) y aportaciones públicas en forma de obra. Mexico is one of the few countries in the world that has developed two major programs for highway construction in collaboration with the private sector. The first one was carried out between 1989 and 1994 with adverse outcomes due to the wrong design of concession schemes; and, the second one, in operation since 2003, through new public-private partnership models (PPPs). The objective of this research is to study public-private partnership models used in Mexico for road infrastructure provision, performing the analysis and evaluation of risk’s distribution between the public and the private sector in each model in order to draw up a proposal for risk’s allocation to reduce the total cost and the uncertainty of projects. The first part describes the current state of knowledge in public-private partnership to develop infrastructure projects, including the history, definition and types of PPP models, as well as international practice of programs such as the British Private Finance Initiative (PFI) model, results in the European Union and PPP programs in other countries. Also, it stands out the private sector participation in financing of Mexico’s transport infrastructure in 1990s. The next chapters present the study of public-private partnerships models that have been used in the country in the construction of the high capacity road network. Characteristics and outcomes of the highway program 1989-94 are presented, as well as the financial bailout and restructuring measures of the concession projects, aspects that forced the Mexican authorities to change projects regulations, improve road’s legislation and design new schemes of cooperation between the Government and the private sector. The new PPP models since 2003 are: concession model to develop toll highways, private service contracts model (shadow toll) to modernize existing roads and highway assets model for the concession of toll roads in operation in exchange for a payment. These models were analyzed using case studies in which measures of operational performance (levels of traffic, costs and construction schedules) and financial profitability (internal rate of return and net present value) are determined. In the last part, the analysis and assessment of risks that affect costs, execution time and profitability of the projects are carried out, for both programs. Among the risk factors analyzed, the following ones were found to be the most important: country macroeconomic conditions (inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate and interest rate), deficiencies in projects planning (design, right of way, tolls, permits and traffic estimation) and public contributions in the form of construction works.

Do grande Outro ao Deus que falta Um estudo sobre a falta e as concepções de Deus e de religião no pensamento de Jacques Lacan

O tema desta tese é a concepção de Deus e de religião no pensamento de Jacques Lacan. Partindo de um estudo dos principais conceitos da psicanálise lacaniana, articulados em torno dos registros do imaginário, do simbólico e do real, a tese aborda as diferentes expressões da dimensão da falta que caracteriza a condição do ser humano e as articula com sua incidência sobre o desenvolvimento das concepções de Deus e de religião em Lacan. Constata que Lacan trabalha com duas concepções distintas de Deus: Uma relacionada com os registros do imaginário e do simbólico, onde Deus se caracteriza como aquele que se constitui pelo sacrifício do desejo do sujeito oferecido a ele como forma de negar a falta é o Deus que goza do sujeito. A outra está relacionada ao registro do real. É o Deus que se manifesta no sintoma, que porta um enigma e uma falta, suscitando o desejo no sujeito. Lacan o identifica como o Deus de Moisés. Essas diferentes concepções de Deus permitem uma crítica à concepção lacaniana de religião, bem como, a identificação de pontos de proximidade entre esta e a psicanálise.

Do grande Outro ao Deus que falta Um estudo sobre a falta e as concepções de Deus e de religião no pensamento de Jacques Lacan

O tema desta tese é a concepção de Deus e de religião no pensamento de Jacques Lacan. Partindo de um estudo dos principais conceitos da psicanálise lacaniana, articulados em torno dos registros do imaginário, do simbólico e do real, a tese aborda as diferentes expressões da dimensão da falta que caracteriza a condição do ser humano e as articula com sua incidência sobre o desenvolvimento das concepções de Deus e de religião em Lacan. Constata que Lacan trabalha com duas concepções distintas de Deus: Uma relacionada com os registros do imaginário e do simbólico, onde Deus se caracteriza como aquele que se constitui pelo sacrifício do desejo do sujeito oferecido a ele como forma de negar a falta é o Deus que goza do sujeito. A outra está relacionada ao registro do real. É o Deus que se manifesta no sintoma, que porta um enigma e uma falta, suscitando o desejo no sujeito. Lacan o identifica como o Deus de Moisés. Essas diferentes concepções de Deus permitem uma crítica à concepção lacaniana de religião, bem como, a identificação de pontos de proximidade entre esta e a psicanálise.

Functional domains are specified to single-cell resolution in a Drosophila epithelium

Specification of pattern is fundamental to the development of a multicellular organism. The Malpighian (renal) tubule of Drosophila melanogaster is a simple epithelium that proliferates under the direction of a single tip cell into three morphologically distinct domains. However, systematic analysis of a panel of over 700 P{GAL4} enhancer trap lines reveals unexpected richness for such an apparently simple tissue. Using numerical analysis, it was possible formally to reconcile apparently similar or complementary expression domains and thus to define at least five genetically defined domains and multiple cell types. Remarkably, the positions of domain boundaries and the numbers of both principal and secondary (“stellate”) cell types within each domain are reproducible to near single-cell precision between individual animals. Domains of physiological function were also mapped using transport or expression assays. Invariably, they respect the boundaries defined by enhancer activity. These genetic domains can also be visualized in vivo, both in transgenic and wild-type flies, providing an “identified cell” system for epithelial physiology. Building upon recent advances in Drosophila Malpighian tubule physiology, the present study confirms this tissue as a singular model for integrative physiology.

Thyroid hormone and estrogen interact to regulate behavior.

Environmental perturbations that increase plasma thyroid hormone (T3) concentrations also profoundly affect female reproductive behavior and physiology. We explored whether these effects were mediated by interactions between T3 receptor (TR) and estrogen receptor (ER). This hypothesis was of interest because the half-site of a consensus T3 response element DNA sequence is identical to an ER response element (ERE), and TRs bind to a consensus ERE. Molecular data presented in the accompanying paper [Zhu, Y.-S., Yen, P.M., Chin, W.W.& Pfaff, D.W. (1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 12587-12592] demonstrate that TRs and ERs are both present in rat hypothalamic nuclear extracts and that both can bind to the promoter the hypothalamic gene preproenkephalin and that interations between liganded TRs and ERs affect preproenkephalin transcription. In this paper, we show that molecular interactions between TRs and ERs are sufficient to mediate environmental effects on estrogen-controlled reproductive behavior. Ovariectomized (OVX) rats treated with high doses of T3 showed significantly lower levels of lordosis behavior in response to estradiol benzoate (EB) compared with OVX females treated with EB alone. Conversely, thyroidectomized/OVX females treated with EB showed significantly greater levels of lordosis behavior compared with OVX females treated with EB, showing the effect of endogenous T3. Thyroid hormone interference with EB-induced behavior could not be explained by a reduction in plasma E2 concentrations or by a general reduction in responsiveness of EB-sensitive tissues. Moreover, numbers of hypothalamic ER-immunoreactive cells increased dramatically following T3 treatment. These data suggest that T3 may reduce EB-dependent sexual behavior through interactions between TR and ER in the nuclei of behaviorally relevant hypothalamic neurons, envisioning for the first time a functional consequence of interactions between two nuclear hormone receptors in brain. These results also open up the possibility of molecular interactions on DNA encoding environmental signals, a new field for the study of neuronal integration.

An O(N log N) algorithm for shape modeling.

We present a shape-recovery technique in two dimensions and three dimensions with specific applications in modeling anatomical shapes from medical images. This algorithm models extremely corrugated structures like the brain, is topologically adaptable, and runs in O(N log N) time, where N is the total number of points in the domain. Our technique is based on a level set shape-recovery scheme recently introduced by the authors and the fast marching method for computing solutions to static Hamilton-Jacobi equations.

From local to global in quasiconformal structures.

We exhibit a large class of metric spaces whose infinitesimal quasiconformal structure is strong enough to capture the global quasiconformal structure. A sufficient condition for this to happen is described in terms of a Poincaré-type inequality.

Il disegno a pastello in Italia nel XVI secolo: un problema critico

Il tema della ricerca sono i caratteri della grafica a pastello in area italiana nel XVI secolo. Il lavoro è articolato in tre parti. Il primo capitolo analizza l’uso e il significato del termine “pastello” nelle fonti Cinque-Seicentesche. Il secondo capitolo ricostruisce il dibattito critico multidisciplinare sull’argomento. Se da una parte l’attenzione riservata al pastello da specialisti di diversi settori ha portato a una feconda varietà di punti di vista, dall’altro ha avuto come risultato una serie di ricostruzioni frammentarie. All’interno del dibattito sulla tecnica è stato possibile distinguere posizioni differenziate, in parte conseguenza dei diversi approcci e specializzazioni, ed enucleare alcuni nodi critici meritevoli di approfondimento. In primo luogo è possibile distinguere varie opinioni sulla fondamentale questione della natura e dei criteri di identificazione del medium, in particolare per i disegni risalenti al XVI secolo ovvero alla fase “embrionale” dell’utilizzo della tecnica. Si è proceduto poi, sulla base di queste premesse, all’analisi dei disegni del XVI secolo tradizionalmente ritenuti o recentemente proposti dalla storiografia come opere a pastello in ambito milanese, nelle aree settentrionali e centro-italiane. Successivamente è stato quindi studiato il ruolo della tecnica all’interno della grafica di Federico Barocci e Jacopo Bassano , i due artisti che si dedicano con maggiore intensità all’esplorazione delle possibilità del medium. Sono state infine considerate opere di artisti appartenenti alle generazioni successive (sempre entro il XVI secolo) che sperimentano l’uso dei pastelli policromi sul modello di Barocci e Bassano.

Alternativas de análise para experimentos G × E multiatributo

Geralmente, nos experimentos genótipo por ambiente (G × E) é comum observar o comportamento dos genótipos em relação a distintos atributos nos ambientes considerados. A análise deste tipo de experimentos tem sido abordada amplamente para o caso de um único atributo. Nesta tese são apresentadas algumas alternativas de análise considerando genótipos, ambientes e atributos simultaneamente. A primeira, é baseada no método de mistura de máxima verossimilhança de agrupamento - Mixclus e a análise de componentes principais de 3 modos - 3MPCA, que permitem a análise de tabelas de tripla entrada, estes dois métodos têm sido muito usados na área da psicologia e da química, mas pouco na agricultura. A segunda, é uma metodologia que combina, o modelo de efeitos aditivos com interação multiplicativa - AMMI, modelo eficiente para a análise de experimentos (G × E) com um atributo e a análise de procrustes generalizada, que permite comparar configurações de pontos e proporcionar uma medida numérica de quanto elas diferem. Finalmente, é apresentada uma alternativa para realizar imputação de dados nos experimentos (G × E), pois, uma situação muito frequente nestes experimentos, é a presença de dados faltantes. Conclui-se que as metodologias propostas constituem ferramentas úteis para a análise de experimentos (G × E) multiatributo.

Determinação do contorno pulmonar orientado em sequências temporais de imagens de RM pela transformada de Hough.

O estudo do movimento pulmonar é assunto de grande interesse na área médica. A observação direta do mesmo é inviável, uma vez que o pulmão colapsa quando a caixa torácica é aberta. Dentre os meios de observação indireta, escolheu-se o imageamento por ressonância magnética em respiração livre e sem uso de nenhum gás para melhorar o contraste ou qualquer informação de sincronismo. Esta escolha propõe diversos desafios, como: a superar a alta variação na qualidade das imagens, que é baixa, em geral, e a suscetibilidade a artefatos, entre outras limitações a serem superadas. Imagens de Tomografia Computadorizada apresentam melhor qualidade e menor tempo de aquisição, mas expõem o paciente a níveis consideráveis de radiação ionizante. É apresentada uma metodologia para segmentação do pulmão, produzindo um conjunto de pontos coordenados. Isto é feito através do processamento temporal da sequência de imagens de RM. Este processamento consiste nas seguintes etapas: geração de imagens temporais (2DSTI), transformada de Hough modificada, algoritmo de contornos ativos e geração de silhueta. A partir de um dado ponto, denominado centro de rotação, são geradas diversas imagens temporais com orientações variadas. É proposta uma formulação modificada da transformada de Hough para determinar curvas parametrizadas que sejam síncronas ao movimento diafragmático, chamados movimentos respiratórios. Também são utilizadas máscaras para delimitar o domínio de aplicação da transformada de Hough. São obtidos movimentos respiratórios que são suavizados pelo algoritmo de contornos ativos e, assim, permitem a geração de contornos para cada quadro pertencente a sequência e, portanto, de uma silhueta do pulmão para cada sequência.

Profiling in sport using momentum and perturbations

Examining a team’s performance from a physical point of view their momentum might indicate unexpected turning points in defeat or success. Physicists describe this value as to require some effort to be started, but also that it is relatively easy to keep it going once a sufficient level is reached (Reed and Hughes, 2006). Unlike football, rugby, handball and many more sports, a regular volleyball match is not limited by time but by points that need to be gathered. Every minute more than one point is won by either one team or the other. That means a series of successive points enlarges the gap between the teams making it more and more difficult to catch up with the leading one. This concept of gathering momentum, or the reverse in a performance, can give the coaches, athletes and sports scientists further insights into winning and losing performances. Momentum investigations also contain dependencies between performances or questions if future performances are reliant upon past streaks. Squash and volleyball share the characteristic of being played up to a certain amount of points. Squash was examined according to the momentum of players by Hughes et al. (2006). The initial aim was to expand normative profiles of elite squash players using momentum graphs of winners and errors to explore ‘turning points’ in a performance. Dynamic systems theory has enabled the definition of perturbations in sports exhibiting rhythms (Hughes et al., 2000; McGarry et al., 2002; Murray et al., 2008), and how players and teams cause these disruptions of rhythm can inform on the way they play, these techniques also contribute to profiling methods. Together with the analysis of one’s own performance it is essential to have an understanding of your oppositions’ tactical strengths and weaknesses. By modelling the oppositions’ performance it is possible to predict certain outcomes and patterns, and therefore intervene or change tactics before the critical incident occurs. The modelling of competitive sport is an informative analytic technique as it directs the attention of the modeller to the critical aspects of data that delineate successful performance (McGarry & Franks, 1996). Using tactical performance profiles to pull out and visualise these critical aspects of performance, players can build justified and sophisticated tactical plans. The area is discussed and reviewed, critically appraising the research completed in this element of Performance Analysis.

Using GNG to improve 3D feature extraction—Application to 6DoF egomotion

Several recent works deal with 3D data in mobile robotic problems, e.g. mapping or egomotion. Data comes from any kind of sensor such as stereo vision systems, time of flight cameras or 3D lasers, providing a huge amount of unorganized 3D data. In this paper, we describe an efficient method to build complete 3D models from a Growing Neural Gas (GNG). The GNG is applied to the 3D raw data and it reduces both the subjacent error and the number of points, keeping the topology of the 3D data. The GNG output is then used in a 3D feature extraction method. We have performed a deep study in which we quantitatively show that the use of GNG improves the 3D feature extraction method. We also show that our method can be applied to any kind of 3D data. The 3D features obtained are used as input in an Iterative Closest Point (ICP)-like method to compute the 6DoF movement performed by a mobile robot. A comparison with standard ICP is performed, showing that the use of GNG improves the results. Final results of 3D mapping from the egomotion calculated are also shown.

Measuring color differences in automotive samples with lightness flop: a test of the AUDI2000 color-difference formula

From a set of gonioapparent automotive samples from different manufacturers we selected 28 low-chroma color pairs with relatively small color differences predominantly in lightness. These color pairs were visually assessed with a gray scale at six different viewing angles by a panel of 10 observers. Using the Standardized Residual Sum of Squares (STRESS) index, the results of our visual experiment were tested against predictions made by 12 modern color-difference formulas. From a weighted STRESS index accounting for the uncertainty in visual assessments, the best prediction of our whole experiment was achieved using AUDI2000, CAM02-SCD, CAM02-UCS and OSA-GP-Euclidean color-difference formulas, which were no statistically significant different among them. A two-step optimization of the original AUDI2000 color-difference formula resulted in a modified AUDI2000 formula which performed both, significantly better than the original formula and below the experimental inter-observer variability. Nevertheless the proposal of a new revised AUDI2000 color-difference formula requires additional experimental data.

Trajectory-Based Morphological Operators: A Model for Efficient Image Processing

Mathematical morphology has been an area of intensive research over the last few years. Although many remarkable advances have been achieved throughout these years, there is still a great interest in accelerating morphological operations in order for them to be implemented in real-time systems. In this work, we present a new model for computing mathematical morphology operations, the so-called morphological trajectory model (MTM), in which a morphological filter will be divided into a sequence of basic operations. Then, a trajectory-based morphological operation (such as dilation, and erosion) is defined as the set of points resulting from the ordered application of the instant basic operations. The MTM approach allows working with different structuring elements, such as disks, and from the experiments, it can be extracted that our method is independent of the structuring element size and can be easily applied to industrial systems and high-resolution images.

Geometric 3D point cloud compression

The use of 3D data in mobile robotics applications provides valuable information about the robot’s environment but usually the huge amount of 3D information is unmanageable by the robot storage and computing capabilities. A data compression is necessary to store and manage this information but preserving as much information as possible. In this paper, we propose a 3D lossy compression system based on plane extraction which represent the points of each scene plane as a Delaunay triangulation and a set of points/area information. The compression system can be customized to achieve different data compression or accuracy ratios. It also supports a color segmentation stage to preserve original scene color information and provides a realistic scene reconstruction. The design of the method provides a fast scene reconstruction useful for further visualization or processing tasks.