K/E之交环境地球化学元素的演化与全球变化及恐龙绝灭的关系-以黑龙江中下游地区和俄罗斯远东地区为例

In this paper, We analyzed the geological and geographical settings of dinosaurs extinction at the end of Cretaceous, especially the effect of the change of the elements contents on dinosaurs extinction. We studied basis on the two typical sections-Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary (Baishantou section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section (in Far East of Russian)) and Longgushan section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) mainly. This work provided some evidences for forecasting the effects of global environmental change on bio-circle. The followings are the primary gains: According to the paleo-climate indexes (CaO/MgO,Sr/Ba) and the results of Factor Analysis, we found that there were similar climate in Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section near the K/E boundary, and both of them took on the trend of temperature declining and precipitation heightening after transitory high-temperature and drought. There are similar change and evlution rule of the elements contents near the boundary in the both sections (Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section). Both iron group elements and chalcophile elements appeared obvious abnormity. There are not visible correlation between the change of elements contents and climate indexes. This shows that the elements abnormity maybe came from the factors excluding climate or the factors were too many to conceal the influence of climate. --The result of cluster analysis showed that the boundary between BST3-8 and BST3-9 may be the K/E boundary of Baishantou section, and the top of twofold coal were the K/E boundary of Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section which was consistent with accepted conclusion formerly. By contrast of elements contents in dinosaur bones and general organism, in surrounding rock and general sand stone, the regulation of the change of elements contents in dinosaur bones and surrounding rock, we confirmed that dinosaur extinction in Jiayin were relative with the high abnormities of Sr, Ba, Pb, Cr and the low abnormity of Zn, at least, it was them which speeded up dinosaurs extinction. After a series of analysis, we concluded that dinosaurs extinction of this areas tied up with the relative high background values of geo-chemical elements , paleo-climate and disaster incidents. First of all, high background values provided the necessary condition for the accumulation of the elements. Secondly, the drought climate adverse to the survival of dinosaurs, and led them to extinct gradually. finally, disaster incidents, the eruption of volcano or the collision of aerolites, made them exit this planet.

基于GIS的高速公路养护管理信息系统的设计与开发

China is experiencing a rapid development of highway ever since 1990s. By the end of 2004, the total length of the highway summed up to 33 thousand kilometers, ranking 2n in the world. After the open of highway, the accumulation of time and traffic causes the decrease of its capability. To ensure its good quality, security and operation functions, we should take some reasonable measures to maintain it periodically. At present, a big problem is that the traditional maintain measures can no longer meet the increasing requirements. Due to the characters of highway, the relationship of various maintenance data and geographic positions is even closer than any others. If we wan to improve the quality and efficiency of the maintenance work, particularly when there is need for decision-making, a great number of data that is related to geographic positions are absolutely necessary. Evidently, Geographical Information System (GIS) has incomparably advantages in dealing with these spatial information. As a result, a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS became inevitable for the development of the maintenance of highway. The purpose of this paper is to establish a management system for highway maintenance work base on Geographical Information System (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS) and spatial database, to manage all kinds of problems encountered in the work, and to provide support on information and methods. My study mainly includes: (1) Analysis on the current status of the maintenance and management work; overview on the history of domestic and international highway maintenance management systems; identifying the necessity and importance for establishing a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS. (2) Based on the requirement analysis, I proposed a general design for this management system, and discussed the objective, design principles, framework, systematical structure and function design. (3) Outdoor data collection is not only a prime way to understand the current situation of the road, but also an important method for data update after the system is put into use. This paper also intends to establish a set of plan to collect data efficiently and precisely which is based on GIS and GPS technologies. (4) The maintenance management database is a supporting platform for various maintenance decision-makings. Such decisions need the support of a great amount of data, which would cause other problems, such as the diversity of the data source, difference of data formats. This paper also discussed how to deal with these problems and establish such a database. (5) To propose an approach to assess the condition of pavement, based on GIS and related maintenance models. Among all the maintenance models, the two for assessing and forecasting pavement condition are the most important and mature. This paper also analyzed these two models and introduced them in terms of the integration of models. (6) This paper took the Guangshen Highway for example, explaining how to realize a GIS for management of highway maintenance work.

人－组织匹配等因素对员工的满意度、组织承诺的影响

P-J Fit and P-O Fit are focus problems in the investigation field of industry and organization psychology. They have distinct influences on staff job performance and job attitude. In a certain extend,these influences are moderated by some variables. LMX(Leader-member Exchange) and TMX(Team-member exchange) are two most important personal relationship types in job scene. Post investigations indicated that they are equal to forecasting variables and moderating variables of staff job performance and job attitude. From actualities, although there are many investigations about the relationships between P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, TMX and job attitude, these investigations only focused on some aspects, and they discussed little about four aspects at one time and mutual influences. Using hierarchical regression analysis to analyze the survey data collected from 592 employees in a big governmental telecom company, we got some results as follows: (1)After controlling demography variables, standardized regression coefficients on P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, TMX and job satisfaction, organization commitment are all positive, and reach distinct levels. (2) LMX could distinctly moderate the influences of P-J Fit, P-O Fit on job satisfaction, but couldn’t distinctly moderate the influences of the two on organization commitment. Specifically, as LMX increased,the effect of P-J on job satisfaction decreased gradually,while the effect of P-O increased. (3) TMX could not distinctly moderate the relationships between P-J Fit, P-O Fit, job satisfaction and organization commitment. The theoretical implication of this investigation lies in enriching and developing investigations in these fields in a certain extend, through conforming the influences of P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, and TMX on job satisfaction and organization commitment. The practical implication lies in revealing these aspects for corporation governors: When selecting applications for a job, they should try their best to realize the best fit of personal ability and the job requirements, personal value and organization culture. They should enhance staff job satisfaction and organization commitment through furthering the relationship between the leader and members, team members each other. They should cushion disadvantage influences of non-P-J Fit on staff job satisfaction and enhance positive influences of P-O Fit. 【Key words】 person-job fit; person-organization fit; leader-member exchange; team member exchange; job attitude

从赌博游戏中的损失厌恶行为看情感预测与体验在决策中的作用

In Kermer, Driver-Linn, Wilson and Gilbert’s (2006) study on affective forecast, they found that people have a tendency to overestimate affective reactions in gains and losses, and people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. Because of thus affective forecasting error, people prefer to irrationally avoid losses. Loss aversion is then seen as both a wealth-maximizing error and an affect-maximizing error. The present study examined the relationships among affective forecast, affective experience and loss aversion, and tested Kermer et al.’s (2006) conclusion that people’s loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. In experiment 1, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and loss aversion. Kermer et al.’s (2006) hypothesized that when people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains, they will accept the gambling task, and when people expect gains to have greater hedonic impact than losses, they will refuse the gambling task. We found that (1) individuals with lower loss aversion had a greater tendency to accept a gambling task than those with higher loss aversion; (2) individuals with lower loss aversion expected losses and gains to have smaller affective impacts than those with higher loss aversion. Thus, people never exactly calculated their forecasting affective. In experiment 2, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and affective experience. Consistent with Kermer et al.’s (2006) finding, we found that our participants tended to overestimate affective reactions in gains as well as losses. More interestingly, Kermer et al.’s (2006) found that participants’ predictions for a loss were significantly more distant from experienced emotions than were their predictions for a win, we, however, found the opposite —participants’ predictions for a win were significantly more distant from the experienced emotions than were their predictions for a loss. These experiments further validated the relations between affection and decision making, and contributed to our understanding on the affective reactions to future events. Our study imply that it was not the exact calculation of affective forecast on decision outcomes, but rather the magnitude of affection on outcomes, that influenced people’s affective decision making. It indicated that those with lower magnitude of affection would less like to avoid losses, and thus more like to accept a gambling task.

社会形势预警的几种建模方法比较

Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Process control in agile supply chain network.

The work comprises a new theoretical development applied to aid decision making in an increasingly important commercial sector. Agile supply, where small volumes of high margin, short life cycle innovative products are offered, is increasingly carried out through a complex global supply chain network. We outline an equilibrium solution in such a supply chain network, which works through limited cooperation and coordination along edges (links) in the network. The links constitute the stochastic modelling entities rather than the nodes of the network. We utilise newly developed phase plane analysis to identify, model and predict characteristic behaviour in supply chain networks. The phase plane charts profile the flow of inventory and identify out of control conditions. They maintain quality within the network, as well as intelligently track the way the network evolves in conditions of changing variability. The methodology is essentially distribution free, relying as it does on the study of forecasting errors, and can be used to examine contractual details as well as strategic and game theoretical concepts between decision-making components (agents) of a network. We illustrate with typical data drawn from supply chain agile fashion products.

Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK

Urquhart, C. J., Cox, A. M.& Spink, S. (2007). Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK. Interlending & Document Supply, 35(3), 164-170. Sponsorship: JISC, LKDN

An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia

Abed, S. Y., Ba-Fail, A. O., & Jasimuddin, S. (2001). An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transport Management, 7(3), 143-148 RAE2008

Wykorzystanie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych w naukach społecznych. Wybrane problemy

Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

Structural Analysis of Network Traffic Flows

Network traffic arises from the superposition of Origin-Destination (OD) flows. Hence, a thorough understanding of OD flows is essential for modeling network traffic, and for addressing a wide variety of problems including traffic engineering, traffic matrix estimation, capacity planning, forecasting and anomaly detection. However, to date, OD flows have not been closely studied, and there is very little known about their properties. We present the first analysis of complete sets of OD flow timeseries, taken from two different backbone networks (Abilene and Sprint-Europe). Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we find that the set of OD flows has small intrinsic dimension. In fact, even in a network with over a hundred OD flows, these flows can be accurately modeled in time using a small number (10 or less) of independent components or dimensions. We also show how to use PCA to systematically decompose the structure of OD flow timeseries into three main constituents: common periodic trends, short-lived bursts, and noise. We provide insight into how the various constituents contribute to the overall structure of OD flows and explore the extent to which this decomposition varies over time.

Generating Representative ISP Technologies From First-Principles

Understanding and modeling the factors that underlie the growth and evolution of network topologies are basic questions that impact capacity planning, forecasting, and protocol research. Early topology generation work focused on generating network-wide connectivity maps, either at the AS-level or the router-level, typically with an eye towards reproducing abstract properties of observed topologies. But recently, advocates of an alternative "first-principles" approach question the feasibility of realizing representative topologies with simple generative models that do not explicitly incorporate real-world constraints, such as the relative costs of router configurations, into the model. Our work synthesizes these two lines by designing a topology generation mechanism that incorporates first-principles constraints. Our goal is more modest than that of constructing an Internet-wide topology: we aim to generate representative topologies for single ISPs. However, our methods also go well beyond previous work, as we annotate these topologies with representative capacity and latency information. Taking only demand for network services over a given region as input, we propose a natural cost model for building and interconnecting PoPs and formulate the resulting optimization problem faced by an ISP. We devise hill-climbing heuristics for this problem and demonstrate that the solutions we obtain are quantitatively similar to those in measured router-level ISP topologies, with respect to both topological properties and fault-tolerance.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.