从赌博游戏中的损失厌恶行为看情感预测与体验在决策中的作用

In Kermer, Driver-Linn, Wilson and Gilbert’s (2006) study on affective forecast, they found that people have a tendency to overestimate affective reactions in gains and losses, and people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. Because of thus affective forecasting error, people prefer to irrationally avoid losses. Loss aversion is then seen as both a wealth-maximizing error and an affect-maximizing error. The present study examined the relationships among affective forecast, affective experience and loss aversion, and tested Kermer et al.’s (2006) conclusion that people’s loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. In experiment 1, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and loss aversion. Kermer et al.’s (2006) hypothesized that when people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains, they will accept the gambling task, and when people expect gains to have greater hedonic impact than losses, they will refuse the gambling task. We found that (1) individuals with lower loss aversion had a greater tendency to accept a gambling task than those with higher loss aversion; (2) individuals with lower loss aversion expected losses and gains to have smaller affective impacts than those with higher loss aversion. Thus, people never exactly calculated their forecasting affective. In experiment 2, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and affective experience. Consistent with Kermer et al.’s (2006) finding, we found that our participants tended to overestimate affective reactions in gains as well as losses. More interestingly, Kermer et al.’s (2006) found that participants’ predictions for a loss were significantly more distant from experienced emotions than were their predictions for a win, we, however, found the opposite —participants’ predictions for a win were significantly more distant from the experienced emotions than were their predictions for a loss. These experiments further validated the relations between affection and decision making, and contributed to our understanding on the affective reactions to future events. Our study imply that it was not the exact calculation of affective forecast on decision outcomes, but rather the magnitude of affection on outcomes, that influenced people’s affective decision making. It indicated that those with lower magnitude of affection would less like to avoid losses, and thus more like to accept a gambling task.

Kermer、Driver-Linn、Wilson和Gilbert在2006年的情感预测实验中发现，人们在预测时会同时高估获益和损失时的情感反应，但尤其夸大了损失对快乐的影响，这种对情感的错误预测使得人们产生了非理性的损失厌恶行为，这种行为导致人们既无法最大化自身的财富，也无法最大化自身的幸福感。本论文通过赌博游戏，考察情感预测、体验与损失厌恶决策行为的关系，检验kermer的推论：人们的损失厌恶行为是对决策结果的情感预测错误造成的。 在实验一的情感预测与损失规避行为的研究中，我们发现被试的损失规避行为与其对游戏结果总的情感预期变化量之间的关系并非如Kermer等人假设的，即当人们对损失的情感预期小于对获益的情感预期时，人们会接受赌博游戏，而当人们对损失的情感预期大于对获益的情感预期时，人们会拒绝赌博游戏。我们在实验中还发现损失规避程度低的被试比损失规避程度高的被试更愿意参加赌博游戏，而且损失规避程度低的被试预期游戏的输、赢结果对情感的影响均小于损失规避程度高的被试。 在实验二的情感预测与情感体验的比较研究中发现，中国被试同样高估了获益和损失时的情感反应，这与kermer研究中获得的结论相一致，但与Kermer研究结果不同的是，Kermer的研究发现被试在损失时的情感预期变化量与体验到的情感变化量存在显著差异，在获益时的情感预期变化量与体验到的情感变化量无显著差异，而本实验发现中国被试在损失时的情感预期变化量与体验到的情感变化量无显著差异，在获益时的情感预期变化量与体验到的情感变化量存在显著性差异。 本实验研究是对情感与决策之间关系的进一步探索，帮助人们了解决策行为背后的情感认知。我们的实验表明：在人们的头脑中精确的情感计算并不存在，真正影响人们决策的不是人们对决策结果的情感预期算术和，而是人们预期决策结果对情感的影响幅度，往往是那些心态更加平和，情感波动幅度更小的人更加不规避损失，更愿意参加赌博游戏。