不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响


Autoria(s): 许洁虹
Contribuinte(s)

李纾

Data(s)

20/05/2009

Resumo

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Identificador

http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/4769

http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/181988

Idioma(s)

中文

Fonte

不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响.许洁虹[d].中国科学院心理研究所,2009.20-25

Palavras-Chave #不确定性类型 #概率表达 #概率判断 #过分极端 #沟通模式偏好悖论
Tipo

学位论文