Wavelet analysis residual kriging vs. neural network residual kriging

This paper deals with the problem of spatial data mapping. A new method based on wavelet interpolation and geostatistical prediction (kriging) is proposed. The method - wavelet analysis residual kriging (WARK) - is developed in order to assess the problems rising for highly variable data in presence of spatial trends. In these cases stationary prediction models have very limited application. Wavelet analysis is used to model large-scale structures and kriging of the remaining residuals focuses on small-scale peculiarities. WARK is able to model spatial pattern which features multiscale structure. In the present work WARK is applied to the rainfall data and the results of validation are compared with the ones obtained from neural network residual kriging (NNRK). NNRK is also a residual-based method, which uses artificial neural network to model large-scale non-linear trends. The comparison of the results demonstrates the high quality performance of WARK in predicting hot spots, reproducing global statistical characteristics of the distribution and spatial correlation structure.

Growth, Democracy, and Civil War

Does economic growth affect the likelihood of civil war? Answering this question requires dealing with reverse causation. Our approach exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on the income growth of Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies; as a result, we find no link between growth and civil war in these countries. Our reducedform results also indicate that lower international commodity price growth has no effect on civil war in democracies, but raises the likelihood of civil war incidence and onset in nondemocracies.

Thermal energetics of the New-Guinean moss-forest rat (Rattus niobe) in comparison with other tropical murid rodents.

The thermal energetics of rodents from cool, wet tropical highlands are poorly known. Metabolic rate, body temperature and thermal conductance were measured in the moss-forest rat, Rattus niobe (Rodentia), a small murid endemic to the highlands of New Guinea. These data were evaluated in the context of the variation observed in the genus Rattus and among tropical murids. In 7 adult R. niobe, basal metabolic rate (BMR) averaged 53.6±6.6mLO2h(-1), or 103% of the value predicted for a body mass of 42.3±5.8g. Compared to other species of Rattus, R. niobe combines a low body temperature (35.5±0.6°C) and a moderately low minimal wet thermal conductance cmin (5.88±0.7mLO2h(-1)°C(-1), 95% of predicted) with a small size, all of which lead to reduced energy expenditure in a constantly cool environment. The correlations of mean annual rainfall and temperature, altitude and body mass with BMR, body temperature and cmin were analyzed comparatively among tropical Muridae. Neither BMR, nor cmin or body temperature correlated with ambient temperature or altitude. Some of the factors which promote high BMR in higher latitude habitats, such as seasonal exposure to very low temperature and short reproductive season, are lacking in wet montane tropical forests. BMR increased with rainfall, confirming a pattern observed among other assemblages of mammals. This correlation was due to the low BMR of several desert adapted murids, while R. niobe and other species from wet habitats had a moderate BMR.

Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may, for example, lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following negative rainfall shocks when conflict is most probable following years with exceptionally high rainfall levels.

Soil and water conservation strategies and impact on sustainable livelihood in Cape Verde – Case study of Ribeira Seca watershed

Cape Verde, located off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, is a volcanic archipelago where a combination of human, climatic, geomorphologic and pedologic factors has led to extensive degradation of the soils. Like other Sahelian countries, Cape Verde has suffered the effects of desertification through the years, threatening the livelihood of the islands population and its fragile environment. In fact, the steep slopes in the ore agricultural islands, together with semi-arid and arid environments, characterized by an irregular and poorly distributed rainy season, with high intensity rainfall events, make dryland production a challenge. To survive in these fragile conditions, the stabilization of the farming systems and the maintenance of sustainable yields have become absolute priorities, making the islands an erosion control laboratory. Soil and water conservation strategies have been a centerpiece of the government0s agricultural policies for the last half century. Aiming to maintain the soil in place and the water inside the soil, the successive governments of Cape Verde have implemented a number of soil and water conservation techniques, the most common ones being terraces, half moons, live barriers, contour rock walls, contour furrows and microcatchments, check dams and reforestation with drought resistant species. The soil and water conservation techniques implemented have contributed to the improvement of the economical and environmental conditions of the treated landscape, making crop production possible, consequently, improving the livelihood of the people living on the islands. In this paper, we survey the existing soil and water conservation techniques, analyze their impact on the livelihood condition of the population through a thorough literature review and field monitoring using a semi-quantitative methodology and evaluate their effectiveness and impact on crop yield in the Ribeira Seca watershed. A brief discussion is given on the cost and effectiveness of the techniques to reduce soil erosion and to promote rainfall infiltration. Finally, we discuss the critical governance factors that lead to the successful implementation of such strategy in a country with scarce natural resources.

Susceptibilidade à Erosão Hídrica na Bacia da Ribeira Seca (Santiago, Cabo Verde)

Na Ilha de Santiago, em Cabo Verde, a erosão hídrica é o processo que afecta áreas mais extensas. A ocorrência de aguaceiros intensos e concentrados no tempo e no espaço promovem uma marcada erosividade das precipitações, com forte irregularidade regional. A grande variabilidade dos declives e das formas das vertentes, associadas à diversidade litológica, bem como à multiplicidade de ocupação do solo, permitem condições de erodibilidade muito contrastadas no espaço. O objectivo deste trabalho é obter um mapa de susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica para a bacia da Ribeira Seca (Santiago oriental) com base no modelo digital do terreno (MDT), nos mapas geológico e de ocupação do solo e na distribuição da erosividade das precipitações. Verifica-se que o sector sudeste da bacia é o mais susceptível à erosão hídrica, pois nele ocorrem a maior concentração diária das precipitações e as condições geomorfológicas e de coberto do solo de mais elevada erodibilidade.

Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks oncivil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks oncivil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops aninstrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) incomeshocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, andSergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data ofMiguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate(for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).

Reorganization of a deeply incised drainage: role of deformation, sedimentation and groundwater flow

Deeply incised drainage networks are thought to be robust and not easily modified, and are commonly used as passive markers of horizontal strain. Yet, reorganizations (rearrangements) appear in the geologic record. We provide field evidence of the reorganization of a Miocene drainage network in response to strike-slip and vertical displacements in Guatemala. The drainage was deeply incised into a 50-km-wide orogen located along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary. It rearranged twice, first during the Late Miocene in response to transpressional uplift along the Polochic fault, and again in the Quaternary in response to transtensional uplift along secondary faults. The pattern of reorganization resembles that produced by the tectonic defeat of rivers that cross growing tectonic structures. Compilation of remote sensing data, field mapping, sediment provenance study, grain-size analysis and Ar(40)/Ar(39) dating from paleovalleys and their fill reveals that the classic mechanisms of river diversion, such as river avulsion over bedrock, or capture driven by surface runoff, are not sufficient to produce the observed diversions. The sites of diversion coincide spatially with limestone belts and reactivated fault zones, suggesting that solution-triggered or deformation-triggered permeability have helped breaching of interfluves. The diversions are also related temporally and spatially to the accumulation of sediment fills in the valleys, upstream of the rising structures. We infer that the breaching of the interfluves was achieved by headward erosion along tributaries fed by groundwater flow tracking from the valleys soon to be captured. Fault zones and limestone belts provided the pathways, and the aquifers occupying the valley fills provided the head pressure that enhanced groundwater circulation. The defeat of rivers crossing the rising structures results essentially from the tectonically enhanced activation of groundwater flow between catchments.

O Processo de Intrusão Salina a jusante da Bacia Hidrográfica da Ribeira Seca. A Inversão do Processo e Impactos da Barragem

Os recursos hídricos na Bacia hidrográfica da Ribeira Seca não têm sido explorados numa base auto-sustentável. Como consequência, verifica-se a deterioração da qualidade da água dos poços e dos furos como resultado da intrusão salina que chega a avançar à volta dos quatro quilómetros para o interior da bacia hidrográfica. Na tentativa de mitigar os efeitos de uma exploração desequilibrada dos recursos em água, muitos projectos de conservação do solo e água foram levados a cabo, destacando-se o Projecto de Desenvolvimento de Bacias Hidrográficas, “Watershed Development Project” – financiado no quadro da USAID na década de 80, (mais concretamente em 1984) e que contemplava todas as bacias hidrográficas da ilha de Santiago. As principais actividades levadas a cabo no âmbito do “Watershed Development Project” foram essencialmente as seguintes: 1. Infra-estruturas hidráulicas de captação, armazenamento, adução e distribuição de água para a rega e consumo doméstico; 2. Infra-estruturas de correcção do leito da ribeira, de espalhamento e recarga das águas de escoamento superficial; 3. Instalação de bombas eólicas para bombagem da água dos poços; 4. Adaptação ao regadio de terrenos de cultura e construção de terraços; 5. Arborização das encostas em dispositivos anti-erosivos (banquetas, muretes, caldeiras, etc.) 6. Sistemas de “water harvesting/runoff farming” (incluindo construção de grandes reservatórios, diques de captação de águas de escoamento superficial); 7. Plantação de feijão Congo (Cajanus cajan) em muretes e banquetas nas encostas. No quadro do projecto de Desenvolvimento de Bacias Hidrográficas, “Watershed Development Project”, dois projectos de luta contra a intrusão salina foram elaborados. Um dos projectos contemplou a Ribeira de Saltos e outro na Ribeira Seca. Só o da Ribeira de Saltos foi executado sob a orientação do coordenador técnico do projecto e os resultados, embora evidentes, estão sendo quantificados no âmbito de um trabalho por nós conduzido. O projecto de luta contra a intrusão salina na Ribeira Seca não foi implementado e bem assim, os projectos considerados no PDH-Ribeira Seca financiados no quadro da Cooperação Austríaca.Pretende-se com este trabalho de fim de curso não só analisar os efeitos da degradação ecológica dos terrenos de cultura localizados a jusante e submetidos à intrusão salina, como também, quantificar os impactos das infra-estruturas hidráulicas executadas a jusante da Ribeira Seca, mais concretamente, o efeito da construção da Barragem de Poilão na melhoria das condições hidrológicas do troço da bacia hidrográfica a jusante.

Aplicação dos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica em Estudos de Caracterização Biofísica da Ilha de Santo Antão em Cabo Verde

Com características morfológicas e edafo-climáticas extremamente diversificadas, a ilha de Santo Antão em Cabo Verde apresenta uma reconhecida vulnerabilidade ambiental a par de uma elevada carência de estudos científicos que incidam sobre essa realidade e sirvam de base à uma compreensão integrada dos fenómenos. A cartografia digital e as tecnologias de informação geográfica vêm proporcionando um avanço tecnológico na colecção, armazenamento e processamento de dados espaciais. Várias ferramentas actualmente disponíveis permitem modelar uma multiplicidade de factores, localizar e quantificar os fenómenos bem como e definir os níveis de contribuição de diferentes factores no resultado final. No presente estudo, desenvolvido no âmbito do curso de pós-graduação e mestrado em sistemas de Informação geográfica realizado pela Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, pretende-se contribuir para a minimização do deficit de informação relativa às características biofísicas da citada ilha, recorrendo-se à aplicação de tecnologias de informação geográfica e detecção remota, associadas à análise estatística multivariada. Nesse âmbito, foram produzidas e analisadas cartas temáticas e desenvolvido um modelo de análise integrada de dados. Com efeito, a multiplicidade de variáveis espaciais produzidas, de entre elas 29 variáveis com variação contínua passíveis de influenciar as características biofísicas da região e, possíveis ocorrências de efeitos mútuos antagónicos ou sinergéticos, condicionam uma relativa complexidade à interpretação a partir dos dados originais. Visando contornar este problema, recorre-se a uma rede de amostragem sistemática, totalizando 921 pontos ou repetições, para extrair os dados correspondentes às 29 variáveis nos pontos de amostragem e, subsequente desenvolvimento de técnicas de análise estatística multivariada, nomeadamente a análise em componentes principais. A aplicação destas técnicas permitiu simplificar e interpretar as variáreis originais, normalizando-as e resumindo a informação contida na diversidade de variáveis originais, correlacionadas entre si, num conjunto de variáveis ortogonais (não correlacionadas), e com níveis de importância decrescente, as componentes principais. Fixou-se como meta a concentração de 75% da variância dos dados originais explicadas pelas primeiras 3 componentes principais e, desenvolveu-se um processo interactivo em diferentes etapas, eliminando sucessivamente as variáveis menos representativas. Na última etapa do processo as 3 primeiras CP resultaram em 74,54% da variância dos dados originais explicadas mas, que vieram a demonstrar na fase posterior, serem insuficientes para retratar a realidade. Optou-se pela inclusão da 4ª CP (CP4), com a qual 84% da referida variância era explicada e, representando oito variáveis biofísicas: a altitude, a densidade hidrográfica, a densidade de fracturação geológica, a precipitação, o índice de vegetação, a temperatura, os recursos hídricos e a distância à rede hidrográfica. A subsequente interpolação da 1ª componente principal (CP1) e, das principais variáveis associadas as componentes CP2, CP3 e CP4 como variáveis auxiliares, recorrendo a técnicas geoestatística em ambiente ArcGIS permitiu a obtenção de uma carta representando 84% da variação das características biofísicas no território. A análise em clusters validada pelo teste “t de Student” permitiu reclassificar o território em 6 unidades biofísicas homogéneas. Conclui-se que, as tecnologias de informação geográfica actualmente disponíveis a par de facilitar análises interactivas e flexíveis, possibilitando que se faça variar temas e critérios, integrar novas informações e introduzir melhorias em modelos construídos com bases em informações disponíveis num determinado contexto, associadas a técnicas de análise estatística multivariada, possibilitam, com base em critérios científicos, desenvolver a análise integrada de múltiplas variáveis biofísicas cuja correlação entre si, torna complexa a compreensão integrada dos fenómenos.

A Casa como Centro das Relações de Parentesco e Mobilidade dos Emigrantes Cabo-Verdianos: o Caso dos Cabo-Verdianos em Portugal

Esta dissertação propõe estudar o papel que a casa desempenha na vida dos cabo-verdianos residentes em Portugal, particularmente na região de grande Lisboa, observando-os como um grupo étnico, isto é, como um conjunto de pessoas que tem por referência a sua origem, ou os seus antepassados próximos em Cabo Verde, ou noutras regiões para onde estes tenham emigrado assim como os imigrantes que já regressaram a Cabo Verde. Por “origem” entendese tanto a procedência geográfica de um lugar que ficou distante, quanto a vinculação a determinados referenciais culturais. A imigração em causa é da segunda metade do século XX, cujas motivações ora são de ordem económica (movidos pelo sistema fundiário que não permitia o acesso à terra para a maioria das populações das ilhas, pobreza extrema, etc.), ora de ordem natural (escassez e irregularidade das chuvas, com as consequentes secas prolongadas e fomes, dizimando pessoas e gados), ora de ordem política (perseguição política, fuga à prestação de serviços militares na Guiné, antes e após o 25 de Abril). Assim, será dado uma especial atenção ao papel que a casa, sobretudo a que foi deixada em Cabo Verde, desempenha nas relações de parentesco de pessoas que se encontram espalhadas por diversos países, bem como todo o processo que enrola a construção e a manutenção da mesma.

Inundações urbanas: desafios ao ordenamento do território. O caso da Cidade da Praia (Cabo Verde)

Pela sua posição geográfica e particulares condições climáticas, devidas à sua inserção na faixa saheliana com caraterísticas de marcada aridez, Cabo Verde é um arquipélago com condições naturais adversas, pautado principalmente pela seca prolongada. Muitas vezes esta conjuntura é interpolada por curtos períodos de fortes chuvadas que podem originar cheias e inundações nos principais centros urbanos. Os eventos ocorridos revelam consequências graves, desde prejuízos na agricultura, perda de animais, destruição de infra-estruturas, perda de bens materiais e, mesmo, vítimas humanas mortais. Este estudo tem como objetivos principais: (i) perceber os problemas e desafios que se colocam à cidade da Praia (maior centro urbano do país, com forte crescimento e expansão urbana) perante situações de inundação; (ii) contribuir para o maior conhecimento das causas e consequências dessas inundações; (iii) definir quais as áreas de maior suscetibilidade às cheias e quais as que possuem um maior risco potencial. Optou-se por uma metodologia integrada, através do levantamento bibliográfico, cartográfico, numérico e percetivo (com base em entrevistas e inquéritos). Para o estudo das bacias hidrográficas foram calculados índices morfométricos, definidas classes de permeabilidade do substrato geológico e aplicado o método multicritério de Reis (2011) para a definição das áreas suscetíveis às cheias. Analisaram-se as precipitações máximas diárias anuais e respetivos períodos de retorno, com a aplicação do método de Gumbel. A análise de notícias de jornais, referentes ao período compreendido entre 1980 e 2011, foi fundamental para o conhecimento da distribuição espácio-temporal dos eventos perigosos de inundação em Cabo Verde e na cidade da Praia. Os resultados obtidos revelam um significativo grau de suscetibilidade às cheias na cidade da Praia. As áreas de maior risco potencial às inundações encontram-se no setor central da cidade, resultante da conjugação da convergência do escoamento das três ribeiras principais, da elevada densidade populacional e de construção desordenada nos leitos de cheia e nas áreas deprimidas, onde se acumulam as águas.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Appraising and selecting strategies to combat and mitigate desertification based on stakeholder knowledge and globalbest practices in Cape Verde Archipelago

Cape Verde is considered part of Sahelian Africa, where drought and desertification are common occurrences. The main activity of the rural population is rain-fed agriculture, which over time has been increasingly challenged by high temporal and spatial rainfall variability, lack of inputs, limited land area, fragmentation of land, steep slopes, pests, lack of mechanization and loss of top soil by water erosion. Human activities, largely through poor farming practices and deforestation (Gomez, 1989) have accelerated natural erosion processes, shifting the balance between soil erosion and soil formation (Norton, 1987). According to previous studies, vegetation cover is one of the most important factors in controlling soil loss (Cyr et al., 1995; Hupy, 2004; Zhang et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2006). For this reason, reforestation is a touchstone of the Cape Verdean policy to combat desertification. After Independence in 1975, the Cape Verde government had pressing and closely entangled environmental and socio-economic issues to address, as long-term desertification had resulted in a lack of soil cover, severe soil erosion and a scarcity of water resources and fuel wood. Across the archipelago, desertification was resulting from a variety of processes including poor farming practices, soil erosion by water and wind, soil and water salinity in coastal areas due to over pumping and seawater intrusion, drought and unplanned urbanization (DGA-MAAP, 2004). All these issues directly affected socio-economic vulnerability in rural areas, where about 70% of people depended directly or indirectly on agriculture in 1975. By becoming part of the Inter- State Committee for the Fight against Drought in the Sahel in 1975, the government of Cape Verde gained structured support to address these issues more efficiently. Presentday policies and strategies were defined on the basis of rational use of resources and human efforts and were incorporated into three subsequent national plans: the National Action Plan for Development (NDP) (1982–1986), the NDP (1986–1990) and the NDP (1991–1995) (Carvalho

Reconstruction of metal pollution and recent sedimentation processes in Havana Bay (Cuba): A tool for coastal ecosystem management.

Since 1998 the highly polluted Havana Bay ecosystem has been the subject of a mitigation program. In order to determine whether pollution-reduction strategies were effective, we have evaluated the historical trends of pollution recorded in sediments of the Bay. A sediment core was dated radiometrically using natural and artificial fallout radionuclides. An irregularity in the (210)Pb record was caused by an episode of accelerated sedimentation. This episode was dated to occur in 1982, a year coincident with the heaviest rains reported in Havana over the XX century. Peaks of mass accumulation rates (MAR) were associated with hurricanes and intensive rains. In the past 60 years, these maxima are related to strong El Niño periods, which are known to increase rainfall in the north Caribbean region. We observed a steady increase of pollution (mainly Pb, Zn, Sn, and Hg) since the beginning of the century to the mid 90s, with enrichment factors as high as 6. MAR and pollution decreased rapidly after the mid 90s, although some trace metal levels remain high. This reduction was due to the integrated coastal zone management program introduced in the late 90s, which dismissed catchment erosion and pollution.