Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict


Autoria(s): Ciccone, Antonio
Contribuinte(s)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa

Data(s)

10/07/2013

Resumo

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may, for example, lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following negative rainfall shocks when conflict is most probable following years with exceptionally high rainfall levels.

Identificador

http://hdl.handle.net/2072/215039

Idioma(s)

cat

Direitos

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Palavras-Chave #Transitory shocks, mean reversion, rainfall, conflict
Tipo

info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper