Testing Weak-Form Efficiency of the Chinese Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta ja random walk -hypoteesin voimassaoloa. Tavoitteena on myös selvittää esiintyykö viikonpäiväanomalia Kiinan osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään Shanghain osakepörssin A-sarjan,B-sarjan ja yhdistelmä-sarjan ja Shenzhenin yhdistelmä-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 21.2.1992-30.12.2005 sekä Shenzhenin osakepörssin A-sarjan ja B-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 5.10.1992-30.12.2005. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään neljä tilastollista menetelmää, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotestiä, epäparametrista runs-testiä, varianssisuhdetestiä sekä Augmented Dickey-Fullerin yksikköjuuritestiä. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Testejä tehdään sekä koko aineistolla että kolmella erillisellä ajanjaksolla. Tämän tutkielman empiiriset tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehottomuudesta. Lukuun ottamatta yksikköjuuritestien saatuja tuloksia, autokorrelaatio-, runs- ja varianssisuhdetestien perusteella random walk-hypoteesi hylättiin molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden kohdalla. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että molemmilla osakepörssillä B-sarjan indeksien käyttäytyminenon ollut huomattavasti enemmän random walk -hypoteesin vastainen kuin A-sarjan indeksit. Paitsi B-sarjan markkinat, molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuus näytti myös paranevan vuoden 2001 markkinabuumin jälkeen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat myös viikonpäiväanomalian esiintyvän Shanghain osakepörssillä, muttei kuitenkaan Shenzhenin osakepörssillä koko tarkasteluajanjaksolla.

Prevalence of substance use in a Swiss psychiatric hospital: interview reports and urine screening.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbid substance misuse is common in psychiatric disorders, has potentially severe adverse consequences and may be frequently undetected. AIMS: To measure the prevalence of substance use among patients admitted to a Swiss psychiatric hospital and to examine the potential utility of routine urine drug screening in this setting. METHOD: 266 inpatients were included. 238 patients completed the interview and 240 underwent a urine drug screening. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence of substance use among psychiatric patients was very high for alcohol (98%; 95% CI: 96-100), benzodiazepines (86%; 95% CI: 82-91) and cannabis (53%; 95% CI: 47-60), but also for "hard drugs" like cocaine (25% ; 95% CI: 19-30) or opiates (20%; 95% CI: 15-25). Regular current use of alcohol (32%; 95% CI: 26-38) or cannabis (17%; 95% CI: 12-22) was the most frequent. Substance use was associated with male sex, younger age, unmarried status and nicotine smoking. Urine screening confirms reports from patients on recent use, and remained positive for cannabis during hospitalisation, but not for cocaine nor for opiates. CONCLUSION: Substance use is frequent among psychiatric patients. Systematic interviewing of patients about their substance use remains essential, and is usually confirmed by urine screening. Urine screening can be useful to provide specific answers about recent use.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Variation in performance in low-volume mammography screening programmes: experience from Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Reading volume and mammography screening performance appear positively correlated. Quality and effectiveness were compared across low-volume screening programmes targeting relatively small populations and operating under the same decentralised healthcare system. Except for accreditation of 2nd readers (restrictive vs non-restrictive strategy), these organised programmes had similar screening regimen/procedures and duration, which maximises comparability. Variation in performance and its determinants were explored in order to improve mammography practice and optimise screening performance. METHODS: Circa 200,000 screens performed between 1999 and 2006 (4 rounds) in 3 longest standing Swiss cantonal programmes (of Vaud, Geneva and Valais) were assessed. Indicators of quality and effectiveness were assessed according to European standards. Interval cancers were identified through linkage with cancer registries records. RESULTS: Swiss programmes met most European standards of performance with a substantial, favourable cancer stage shift. Up to a two-fold variation occurred for several performance indicators. In subsequent rounds, compared with programmes (Vaud and Geneva) that applied a restrictive selection strategy for 2nd readers, proportions of in situ lesions and of small cancers (≤1cm) were one third lower and halved, respectively, and the proportion of advanced lesions (stage II+) nearly 50% higher in the programme without a restrictive selection strategy. Discrepancy in second-year proportional incidence of interval cancers appears to be multicausal. CONCLUSION: Differences in performance could partly be explained by a selective strategy for second readers and a prior experience in service screening, but not by the levels of opportunistic screening and programme attendance. This study provides clues for enhancing mammography screening performance in low-volume programmes.

Efficiency of coronary artery disease screening guidelines in asymptomatic and atypical chest pain type 2 diabetic patients

RESUME Objectifs. Évaluer la prévalence de maladie coronarienne chez les patients diabétiques de type 2 asymptomatiques ou avec angor atypique selon les recommandations américaines de l'American Diabetes Association et de l'American College of Cardiology. Méthodes. Cent cinquante-quatre patients diabétiques de type 2 asymptomatiques ou avec angor atypique et présentant au minimum 2 facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaires additionnels ont été dépistés par échocardiographie de stress (71%, n=109), scintigraphie myocardique de perfusion (26%, n=40) ou l'association des 2 examens (3%, n=5). Résultats. L'échocardiographie de stress s'est révélée positive chez 16 patients (14%) et 14 ont eu une coronarographie révélant des sténoses significatives chez 12 (86%). La scintigraphie myocardique de perfusion était positive chez 16 patients (36%). Huit patients ont eu une coronarographie et 4 (50%) présentaient des sténoses significatives. Au total, 31 patients (20%) ont montré des signes d'ischémie lors de l'examen non-invasif et 15 (10%) ont présenté des sténoses significatives à la coronarographie. Les facteurs prédictifs indépendants de la maladie coronarienne étaient le tabagisme (OR 6.5, p=0.05), la microalbuminurie (OR 3.9, p=0.03), ainsi que les souffles fémoraux (OR 17.1, p=0.008). Conclusions. En suivant les recommandations américaines, un patient sur cinq présentait une ischémie lors des examens non-invasifs, tandis que 1 sur 10 avait des sténoses significatives à la coronarographie. L'analyse multivariée suggère que des marqueurs des complications micro- et macro-vasculaires en combinaison avec des facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire classiques pourraient améliorer le pouvoir diagnostic de ces recommandations. SUMMARY Aims. We evaluated the prevalence of coronary artery disease in asymptomatic and atypical chest pain type 2 diabetic patients according to the American Diabetes Association and American College of Cardiology guidelines. Methods. Asymptomatic or atypical chest pain type 2 diabetic patients (n=154), with at least two additional cardiovascular risk factors, were screened for coronary artery disease using stress echocardiography (71%, n=109), myocardial perfusion imaging (26%, n=40) or both (3%, n=5). Results. Stress echocardiography was positive in 16 patients (14%) and 14 had a coronary angiography, revealing significant stenoses in 12 (86%). Myocardial perfusion imaging was positive in 16 patients (36%). Eight patients underwent angiography and 4 (50%) presented significant stenoses. Overall, 31 patients (20%) demonstrated signs of ischemia on non-invasive tests and 15 (10%) presented significant stenoses on coronary angiography. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease were smoking (OR 6.5, p=0.05), microalbuminuria (OR 3.9, p=0.03) and femoral murmur (OR 17.1, p=0.008). Conclusions. Following the guidelines, one in five diabetic patient presented ischemia on noninvasive tests, while one in ten presented significant coronary stenoses. Multivariate analysis suggests that adding markers of micro- and macro-vascular complications to classical cardiovascular risk factors may enhance the diagnostic efficiency of the guidelines.

Efeito da sacarose e sorbitol na conservação in vitro de Passiflora giberti N. E. Brown

Este trabalho teve como objetivo estudar o efeito da sacarose e do sorbitol na conservação in vitro de um acesso de Passiflora giberti N. E. Brown. Para isso, foi instalado um experimento no delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em que foi comparado o tratamento-testemunha (MS padrão) com o meio MS suplementado com três concentrações de sacarose (0; 15 e 30 g L-1) em combinação com três concentrações de sorbitol (10; 20 e 40 g L-1). As avaliações foram realizadas aos 30; 60; 90 e 120 dias de incubação, observando-se o comprimento das brotações (cm), número de raízes, número e coloração das folhas. Os resultados mostram ser possível conservar sob crescimento lento, por quatro meses, microplantas de maracujazeiro em meio de cultura MS suplementado com 10 ou 20 g L-1 de sorbitol, na ausência de sacarose, e mantidas sob condições de fotoperíodo de 16 h (22 µE m-2s-1) e temperatura de 27 ± 1 ºC. A sacarose promoveu maior desenvolvimento de microplantas. A rizogênese é afetada pelo sorbitol na concentração de 40 g L-1 e pela ausência de sacarose no meio de cultura.

Precision of the Retinal Tomograph as a Screening Device.

Purpose: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of the Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph 3 (HRT3) as a screening device in comparison with the reference standard of Octopus standard automated perimetry results (SAP) combined with clinical findings. Methods: All patients underwent screening examinations and investigations within a single day. Abnormal screening results were classified as follows: The HRT3: Either "borderline" or "outside normal limits" using the global Moorfields classification (MFC); SAP and clinical exam: A mean defect > 2.4 dB or "outside normal limits" clear text analysis of SAP; and one of the following i) IOP > 21 mmHg, ii) Van Herrick < ¼, iii) cup disc ratio > 0.55, iv) optic nerve head abnormality, v) narrow iridocorneal angle or vi) evidence of peripheral anterior synechiae on gonioscopy. Results: The mean age of the participants was 59.9 years (± 14.8 [21, 91]). Twenty-three subjects (16 %) were classified as abnormal on SAP and clinical exam. The HRT3 classification had a sensitivity of 30 % (95 % CI [16 %, 51 %]) with associated specificity of 58 % (95 % CI [49 %, 66 %]). Of the sixty subjects classified as borderline or outside normal limits with the HRT MFC global result, seven subjects were also abnormal according to SAP and clinical exam. Conclusion: The results suggest that the HRT3 may not be suitable as a sole screening device; however, further investigation is necessary.

Preoperative nutritional screening by the specialist instead of the nutritional risk score might prevent excess nutrition: a multivariate analysis of nutritional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess whether widely used nutritional parameters are correlated with the nutritional risk score (NRS-2002) to identify postoperative morbidity and to evaluate the role of nutritionists in nutritional assessment. METHODS: A randomized trial on preoperative nutritional interventions (NCT00512213) provided the study cohort of 152 patients at nutritional risk (NRS-2002 ≥3) with a comprehensive phenotyping including diverse nutritional parameters (n=17), elaborated by nutritional specialists, and potential demographic and surgical (n=5) confounders. Risk factors for overall, severe (Dindo-Clavien 3-5) and infectious complications were identified by univariate analysis; parameters with P<0.20 were then entered in a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 140 patients with complete datasets. Of these, 61 patients (43.6%) were overweight, and 72 patients (51.4%) experienced at least one complication of any degree of severity. Univariate analysis identified a correlation between few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=4.94; 95% CI: 1.47-16.56, p=0.01) and overall complications. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less overall complications compared to the not malnourished (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97, p=0.043). Severe postoperative complications occurred more often in patients with low lean body mass (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1-1.12, p=0.028). Few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=8.8; 95% CI: 1.12-68.99, p=0.008) were related with postoperative infections. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less infectious complications (OR=0.28; 95% CI: 0.1-0.78), p=0.014) as compared to the not malnourished. Multivariate analysis identified few co-morbidities (OR=6.33; 95% CI: 1.75-22.84, p=0.005), low weight loss (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, p=0.006) and low hemoglobin concentration (OR=2.84; 95% CI: 1.22-6.59, p=0.021) as independent risk factors for overall postoperative complications. Compliance with nutritional supplements (OR=0.37; 95% CI: 0.14-0.97, p=0.041) and supplementation of malnourished patients as assessed by nutritional specialists (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.69, p=0.009) were independently associated with decreased infectious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional support based upon NRS-2002 screening might result in overnutrition, with potentially deleterious clinical consequences. We emphasize the importance of detailed assessment of the nutritional status by a dedicated specialist before deciding on early nutritional intervention for patients with an initial NRS-2002 score of ≥3.

Performance of parental history for the targeted screening of hypertension in children.

OBJECTIVES: Several guidelines recommend universal screening for hypertension in childhood and adolescence. Targeted screening to children with parental history of hypertension could be a more efficient strategy than universal screening. Therefore, we assessed the association between parental history of hypertension and hypertension in children, and estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative, and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension for hypertension in children. METHODS: The present study was a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10-14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over three separate visits. RESULTS: In children, the prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. Some 8.5% of mothers and 12.9% of fathers reported to be hypertensive. Maternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.3) and paternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.6) were independent risk factors for hypertension in children. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children was low (from 4% for both parents' positive history up to 41% for at least one parent's positive history). Positive predictive values were also low (between 4 and 5%). CONCLUSION: Children with hypertensive parents were at higher risk of hypertension. Nevertheless, parental history of hypertension helped only marginally to identify hypertension in offspring. Targeting screening only toward children with a parental history of hypertension may not be a substantially better strategy to identify hypertension in children compared with universal screening.

Expanding the Mutation Spectrum Affecting αIIbβ3 Integrin in Glanzmann Thrombasthenia: Screening of the ITGA2B and ITGB3 Genes in a Large International Cohort.

We report the largest international study on Glanzmann thrombasthenia (GT), an inherited bleeding disorder where defects of the ITGA2B and ITGB3 genes cause quantitative or qualitative defects of the αIIbβ3 integrin, a key mediator of platelet aggregation. Sequencing of the coding regions and splice sites of both genes in members of 76 affected families identified 78 genetic variants (55 novel) suspected to cause GT. Four large deletions or duplications were found by quantitative real-time PCR. Families with mutations in either gene were indistinguishable in terms of bleeding severity that varied even among siblings. Families were grouped into type I and the rarer type II or variant forms with residual αIIbβ3 expression. Variant forms helped identify genes encoding proteins mediating integrin activation. Splicing defects and stop codons were common for both ITGA2B and ITGB3 and essentially led to a reduced or absent αIIbβ3 expression; included was a heterozygous c.1440-13_c.1440-1del in intron 14 of ITGA2B causing exon skipping in seven unrelated families. Molecular modeling revealed how many missense mutations induced subtle changes in αIIb and β3 domain structure across both subunits, thereby interfering with integrin maturation and/or function. Our study extends knowledge of GT and the pathophysiology of an integrin.

Otolith shape analysis as a tool for population discrimination of the white grunt (Haemulon plumieri) stock in the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

In this study, the population structure of the white grunt (Haemulon plumieri) from the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula was determined through an otolith shape analysis based on the samples collected in three locations: Celestún (N 20°49",W 90°25"), Dzilam (N 21°23", W 88°54") and Cancún (N 21°21",W 86°52"). The otolith outline was based on the elliptic Fourier descriptors, which indicated that the H. plumieri population in the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is composed of three geographically delimited units (Celestún, Dzilam, and Cancún). Significant differences were observed in mean otolith shapes among all samples (PERMANOVA; F2, 99 = 11.20, P = 0.0002), and the subsequent pairwise comparisons showed that all samples were significantly differently from each other. Samples do not belong to a unique white grunt population, and results suggest that they might represent a structured population along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Calendar anomalies in stock returns: Evidence from South America

This bachelor's thesis studies calendar anomalies in stock returns in five South American countries including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. The analysis in done using regression analysis and the OLS- method.