Contrasting Seasonal Survivorship of Two Migratory Songbirds Wintering in Threatened Mangrove Forests

Long-distance migrants wintering in tropical regions face a number of critical conservation threats throughout their lives, but seasonal estimates of key demographic parameters such as winter survival are rare. Using mist-netting-based mark-recapture data collected in coastal Costa Rica over a six-year period, we examined variation in within- and between-winter survivorship of the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea; 753 young and 376 adults banded), a declining neotropical habitat specialist that depends on threatened mangrove forests during the nonbreeding season. We derived parallel seasonal survivorship estimates for the Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis; 564 young and 93 adults banded), a cohabitant mangrove specialist that has not shown the same population decline in North America, to assess whether contrasting survivorship might contribute to the observed differences in the species’ population trajectories. Although average annual survival probability was relatively similar between the two species for both young and adult birds, monthly estimates indicated that relative to Northern Waterthrush, Prothonotary Warblers exhibited: greater interannual variation in survivorship, especially within winters; greater variation in survivorship among the three study sites; lower average between-winter survivorship, particularly among females, and; a sharp decline in between-winter survivorship from 2003 to 2009 for both age groups and both sexes. Rather than identifying one seasonal vital rate as a causal factor of Prothonotary Warbler population declines, our species comparison suggests that the combination of variable within-winter survival with decreasing between-winter survival demands a multi-seasonal approach to the conservation of this and other tropical-wintering migrants.

Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) surveys in the North American Intermountain West: utilizing citizen scientists to conduct monitoring across a broad geographic scale

The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is an open-country species breeding in the northern United States and Canada, and has likely experienced a long-term, range-wide, and substantial decline. However, the cause and magnitude of the decline is not well understood. We set forth to address the first two of six previously proposed conservation priorities to be addressed for this species: (1) better define habitat use and (2) improve population monitoring. We recruited 131 volunteers to survey over 6.2 million ha within the state of Idaho for Short-eared Owls during the 2015 breeding season. We surveyed 75 transects, 71 of which were surveyed twice, and detected Short-eared Owls on 27 transects. We performed multiscale occupancy modeling to identify habitat associations, and performed multiscale abundance modeling to generate a state-wide population estimate. Our results suggest that within the state of Idaho, Short-eared Owls are more often found in areas with marshland or riparian habitat or areas with greater amounts of sagebrush habitat at the 1750 ha transect scale. At the 50 ha point scale, Short-eared Owls tend to associate positively with fallow and bare dirt agricultural land and negatively with grassland. Cropland was not chosen at the broader transect scale suggesting that Short-eared Owls may prefer more heterogeneous landscapes. On the surface our results may seem contradictory to the presumed land use by a “grassland” species; however, the grasslands of the Intermountain West, consisting largely of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), lack the complex structure shown to be preferred by these owls. We suggest the local adaptation to agriculture represents the next best habitat to their historical native habitat preferences. Regardless, we have confirmed regional differences that should be considered in conservation planning for this species. Last, our results demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, and effectiveness of utilizing public participation in scientific research to achieve a robust sampling methodology across the broad geography of the Intermountain West.

Air-earth current density measurements at Lerwick; implications for seasonality in the global electric circuit

Atmospheric electricity measurements were made at Lerwick Observatory in the Shetland Isles (60°09′N, 1°08′W) during most of the 20th century. The Potential Gradient (PG) was measured from 1926 to 84 and the air-earth conduction current (Jc) was measured during the final decade of the PG measurements. Daily Jc values (1978–1984) observed at 15 UT are presented here for the first time, with independently-obtained PG measurements used to select valid data. The 15 UT Jc (1978–1984) spans 0.5–9.5 pA/m2, with median 2.5 pA/m2; the columnar resistance at Lerwick is estimated as 70 PΩm2. Smoke measurements confirm the low pollution properties of the site. Analysis of the monthly variation of Lerwick Jc data shows that winter (DJF) Jc is significantly greater than the summer (JJA) Jc by 20%. The Lerwick atmospheric electricity seasonality differs from the global lightning seasonality, but Jc has a similar seasonal phasing to that observed in Nimbostratus clouds globally, suggesting a role for non-thunderstorm rain clouds in the seasonality of the global circuit.

Estimating surface CO2 fluxes from space-borne dry air mole fraction observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter

We have developed an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to estimate 8-day regional surface fluxes of CO2 from space-borne CO2 dry-air mole fraction observations (XCO2) and evaluate the approach using a series of synthetic experiments, in preparation for data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The 32-day duty cycle of OCO alternates every 16 days between nadir and glint measurements of backscattered solar radiation at short-wave infrared wavelengths. The EnKF uses an ensemble of states to represent the error covariances to estimate 8-day CO2 surface fluxes over 144 geographical regions. We use a 12×8-day lag window, recognising that XCO2 measurements include surface flux information from prior time windows. The observation operator that relates surface CO2 fluxes to atmospheric distributions of XCO2 includes: a) the GEOS-Chem transport model that relates surface fluxes to global 3-D distributions of CO2 concentrations, which are sampled at the time and location of OCO measurements that are cloud-free and have aerosol optical depths <0.3; and b) scene-dependent averaging kernels that relate the CO2 profiles to XCO2, accounting for differences between nadir and glint measurements, and the associated scene-dependent observation errors. We show that OCO XCO2 measurements significantly reduce the uncertainties of surface CO2 flux estimates. Glint measurements are generally better at constraining ocean CO2 flux estimates. Nadir XCO2 measurements over the terrestrial tropics are sparse throughout the year because of either clouds or smoke. Glint measurements provide the most effective constraint for estimating tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes by accurately sampling fresh continental outflow over neighbouring oceans. We also present results from sensitivity experiments that investigate how flux estimates change with 1) bias and unbiased errors, 2) alternative duty cycles, 3) measurement density and correlations, 4) the spatial resolution of estimated flux estimates, and 5) reducing the length of the lag window and the size of the ensemble. At the revision stage of this manuscript, the OCO instrument failed to reach its orbit after it was launched on 24 February 2009. The EnKF formulation presented here is also applicable to GOSAT measurements of CO2 and CH4.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.