State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Conflict prevention and decentralized governance: some remarks about the state of the art in theory and practice

Is there a link between decentralized governance and conflict prevention? This article tries to answer the question by presenting the state of the art of the intersection of both concepts. Provided that social conflict is inevitable and given the appearance of new threats and types of violence, as well as new demands for security based on people (human security), our societies should focus on promoting peaceful changes. Through an extensive analysis of the existing literature and the study of several cases, this paper suggests that decentralized governance can contribute to these efforts by transforming conflicts, bringing about power-sharing and inclusion incentives of minority groups. Albeit the complexity of assessing its impact on conflict prevention, it can be contended that decentralized governance might have very positive effects on the reduction of causes that bring about conflicts due to its ability to foster the creation of war/violence preventors. More specifically, this paper argues that decentralization can have a positive impact on the so-called triggers and accelerators (short- and medium-term causes).

La poética del desig: amor i bogeria a l'Orlando furioso

Aquesta tesina, amb el títol "La poètica del desig. amor i bogeria a l'Orlando furioso", proposa una nova lectura del poema de Ludovico Ariosto, prenent com a objectiu l'anàlisi de la bogeria del seu protagonista, el Comte Orlando, "che per amor venne in furore e matto / d'uom che sì saggio era stimato prima". Així doncs, pretenem esbrinar per què davant de la constatació de Matteo Maria Boiardo d'un "Orlando innmorato", Ariosto va respondre amb un "Orlando furioso", narrant així "cosa non detta in prosa mai né in rima". Per arribar fins al fons de la qüestió, ens hem preguntat quins són l'origen, la manifestació textual, la dimensió i el significat del concepte de "furor" en el text; interrogants que ens han conduït cap a una bogeria amorosa que és manifestació externa d'un desig insatisfet. Un concepte que, a més a més d'evocar l"Hercules furens" d'Eurípides i Sèneca, ens remet a la teoria dels humors de Galè, al concepte de 'melancholia' d'Aristòtil i a l'eròtica platònica, al mateix temps que reprodueix els models del que Cesare Segre anomena la 'follie littéraire' característica de l'època medieval. A partir d'aquesta anàlisi s'ha interpretat el text com una apologia de les passions en la que es destrona al savi com a paradigma i model ètic, acabant així amb la imatge de l'home com a "animal rationale", situant per contra la seva "humanitas" ja no en la racionalitat (tampoc en la irracionalitat), sinó en la passionalitat, oferint així un retrat de l'ésser humà com a "animal passionalis" , una criatura intermitja en la que haurien de confluir idealment raó i passió.

A right to a national space of communication? : on Stateless nations, their right to a space of communication of their own

Hem establert les bases metodològiques i teòriques per investigar la pregunta “Tenen les nacions sense estat el dret de controlar el seu propi espai de comunicació?”. La investigació ajusta el concepte d’espai de comunicació a la teoria política, cercant els seus límits en els drets individuals i, des de la perspectiva del liberalisme 2, aportant la justificació del seu control en quant que plataforma que incideix en la conservació i supervivència d’una cultura nacional. El primer article i fase de la tesi és l’adaptació i definició del concepte espai de comunicació. Fins ara, la recerca ha proposat diferents models d’espai de comunicació entenent si es tracta d’una visió emfatitzant la distribució i la producció de material marcat amb els símbols de la identitat nacional de la societat emissora, o bé si emfatitza la idea d’un espai de circulació de fluxos comunicatiu ajustat a un territori tradicionalment vinculat a una identitat nacional o nació sense estat. Igualment, es distingeix la dimensió d’emissió –sortir del territori al món- i la de recepció –fluxos informatius rebuts des del món al territori, concretament, al ciutadà; el paper d’intervenció de les institucions democràtiques és diferent en una dimensió o una altra i, per tant, també són diferents els drets afectats i les teories o principis que neguen o justifiquen el control de l’espai de comunicació. També s’ha indagat en les teories sobre els efectes cognitius dels mitjans de comunicació per relacionar-los amb la construcció nacional com a cohesió simbòlica i cultural. Si bé els mitjans no poden fer canviar de pensament immediatament, sí que poden conformar a llarg termini una percepció nacional general. Una comunitat és imaginada, donada la distància física dels seus components, i la comunicació social és, juntament amb l’educació, el principal factor de construcció nacional, avui en dia.

Theory of mind tasks and executive functions: A systematic review of group studies in neurology.

A growing number of studies have been addressing the relationship between theory of mind (TOM) and executive functions (EF) in patients with acquired neurological pathology. In order to provide a global overview on the main findings, we conducted a systematic review on group studies where we aimed to (1) evaluate the patterns of impaired and preserved abilities of both TOM and EF in groups of patients with acquired neurological pathology and (2) investigate the existence of particular relations between different EF domains and TOM tasks. The search was conducted in Pubmed/Medline. A total of 24 articles met the inclusion criteria. We considered for analysis classical clinically accepted TOM tasks (first- and second-order false belief stories, the Faux Pas test, Happe's stories, the Mind in the Eyes task, and Cartoon's tasks) and EF domains (updating, shifting, inhibition, and access). The review suggests that (1) EF and TOM appear tightly associated. However, the few dissociations observed suggest they cannot be reduced to a single function; (2) no executive subprocess could be specifically associated with TOM performances; (3) the first-order false belief task and the Happe's story task seem to be less sensitive to neurological pathologies and less associated to EF. Even though the analysis of the reviewed studies demonstrates a close relationship between TOM and EF in patients with acquired neurological pathology, the nature of this relationship must be further investigated. Studies investigating ecological consequences of TOM and EF deficits, and intervention researches may bring further contributions to this question.

Linear Aggregation In The Social Accounting Matrix Framework

In economic literature, information deficiencies and computational complexities have traditionally been solved through the aggregation of agents and institutions. In inputoutput modelling, researchers have been interested in the aggregation problem since the beginning of 1950s. Extending the conventional input-output aggregation approach to the social accounting matrix (SAM) models may help to identify the effects caused by the information problems and data deficiencies that usually appear in the SAM framework. This paper develops the theory of aggregation and applies it to the social accounting matrix model of multipliers. First, we define the concept of linear aggregation in a SAM database context. Second, we define the aggregated partitioned matrices of multipliers which are characteristic of the SAM approach. Third, we extend the analysis to other related concepts, such as aggregation bias and consistency in aggregation. Finally, we provide an illustrative example that shows the effects of aggregating a social accounting matrix model.

Modulatory role of eosinophils in allergic inflammation: new evidence for a rather outdated concept

The eosinophilic response has been identified as a key alteration in the pathogenesis of asthma and other allergic diseases. A close-correlation between disease severity and eosinophilia, and the eosinophil ability to provide toxic and pro-inflammatory agents are the major elements supporting the interpretation that there is indeed a causal relationship between these phenomena. Nevertheless, controversy still persists since some studies have clearly demonstrated that eosinophil infiltration is not necessarily accompanied by tissue damage or hyperresponsiveness. In addition, there are some examples in the literature in which such alterations are not modified following abrogation of eosinophil influx. In this review it will be argued, based on a model of IgE-dependent pleurisy, that eosinophil infiltration can be associated with down-regulation of allergic inflammatory response. The potential mechanism by which eosinophils could be acting as a immunomodulatory cells in this particular system will also be assessed.

Mitochondrial tRNA(Leu(UUR)) mutation m.3302A > G presenting as childhood-onset severe myopathy: threshold determination through segregation study.

Mitochondrial tRNA(Leu(UUR)) mutation m.3302A > G is associated with respiratory chain complex I deficiency and has been described as a rare cause of mostly adult-onset slowly progressive myopathy. Five families with 11 patients have been described so far; 5 of them died young due to cardiorespiratory failure. Here, we report on a segregation study in a family with an index patient who already presented at the age of 18 months with proximal muscular hypotonia, abnormal fatigability, and lactic acidosis. This early-onset myopathy was rapidly progressive. At 8 years, the patient is wheel-chair bound, requires nocturnal assisted ventilation, and suffers from recurrent respiratory infections. Severe complex I deficiency and nearly homoplasmy for m.3302A > G were found in muscle. We collected blood, hair, buccal swabs and muscle biopsies from asymptomatic adults in this pedigree and determined heteroplasmy levels in these tissues as well as OXPHOS activities in muscle. All participating asymptomatic adults had normal OXPHOS activities. In contrast to earlier reports, we found surprisingly little variation of heteroplasmy levels in different tissues of the same individual. Up to 45% mutation load in muscle and up to 38% mutation load in other tissues were found in non-affected adults. The phenotypic spectrum of tRNA(Leu(UUR)) m.3302A > G mutation seems to be wider than previously described. A threshold of more than 45% heteroplasmy in muscle seems to be necessary to alter complex I activity leading to clinical manifestation. The presented data may be helpful for prognostic considerations and counseling in affected families.

Reconstruction threshold for the hardcore model

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Index theory for basic Dirac operators on Riemannian foliations

In this paper we prove a formula for the analytic index of a basic Dirac-type operator on a Riemannian foliation, solving a problem that has been open for many years. We also consider more general indices given by twisting the basic Dirac operator by a representation of the orthogonal group. The formula is a sum of integrals over blowups of the strata of the foliation and also involves eta invariants of associated elliptic operators. As a special case, a Gauss-Bonnet formula for the basic Euler characteristic is obtained using two independent proofs.

Generalized descriptive set theory and classification theory

Descriptive set theory is mainly concerned with studying subsets of the space of all countable binary sequences. In this paper we study the generalization where countable is replaced by uncountable. We explore properties of generalized Baire and Cantor spaces, equivalence relations and their Borel reducibility. The study shows that the descriptive set theory looks very different in this generalized setting compared to the classical, countable case. We also draw the connection between the stability theoretic complexity of first-order theories and the descriptive set theoretic complexity of their isomorphism relations. Our results suggest that Borel reducibility on uncountable structures is a model theoretically natural way to compare the complexity of isomorphism relations.