930 resultados para Probability of detection


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We have made a comparison of (a) different surface chemistries of surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensor chips (such as carboxymethylated dextran and carboxymethylated C1) and (b) of different assay formats (direct, sandwich and subtractive immunoassay) in order to improve the sensitivity of the determination of the model bacteria Acidovorax avenae subsp. citrulli (Aac). The use of the carboxymethylated sensor chip C1 resulted in a better sensitivity than that of carboxymethylated dextran CM5 in all the assay formats. The direct assay format, in turn, exhibits the best sensitivity. Thus, the combination of a carboxymethylated sensor chip C1 with the direct assay format resulted in the highest sensitivity for Aac, with a limit of detection of 1.6x106 CFU mL-1. This SPR immunosensor was applied to the detection of Aac in watermelon leaf extracts spiked with the bacteria, and the lower LOD is 2.2x107 CFU mL-1.

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Objective: To describe the incidence, prevalence, and natural history of proliferative sickle cell retinopathy (PSR). Design: Prospective longitudinal study over 20 years. Participants: Newborn screening of 100000 consecutive deliveries from 1973 to 1981 identified 315 children with homozygous sickle cell (SS) disease and 201 with SS-hemoglobin C (SC) disease. By the age of 5 years, 307 SS patients and 166 SC patients were alive and living in Jamaica and were recruited for this ophthalmic study. Methods: Description of retinal vascular changes on annual angiography and angioscopy. Main Outcome Measures: Incidence and prevalence of PSR and its behavior on follow-up. Progression of PSR was investigated using the number of eyes affected (none, one, both) and the interval until PSR onset. Results: At last review in January 2000, PSR had developed in 59 patients (14 SS, 45 SC), unilaterally in 36 patients and bilaterally in 23. Incidence increased with age in both genotypes, with crude annual incidence rates of 0.5 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-0.8) per 100 SS subjects and 2.5 cases (95% CI, 1.9-3.3) per 100 SC subjects. Prevalence was greater in SC disease, and by the ages of 24 to 26 years, PSR had occurred in 43% subjects with SC disease and in 14% subjects with SS disease. Patients with unilateral PSR had a 16% (11% SS, 17% SC) probability of regressing to no PSR and a 14% (16% SS, 13% SC) probability of progressing to bilateral PSR. Those with bilateral PSR had an 8% (8% SS, 8% SC) probability of regressing to unilateral PSR and a 1% (0 SS, 2% SC) probability of regressing to a PSR-free state. Irretrievable visual loss occurred in only 1 of 82 PSR-affected eyes, and 1 required detachment surgery and recovered normal visual acuity. Conclusions: Longitudinal observations over 20 years in a cohort of patients followed from birth confirms a greater incidence and severity of PSR in SC disease, and shows that spontaneous regression occurred in 32% of PSR-affected eyes. Permanent visual loss was uncommon in subjects observed up to the age of 26 years. © 2005 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

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Objective: This paper uses data provided by the Police Service for Northern Ireland (PSNI) to compare the characteristics and outcomes of reported sexual offences involving child and adult victims and explore the factors associated with case outcomes.
Method: PSNI provided data on 8,789 sexual offences recorded between April 2001 and March 2006. Case outcomes were based on whether a case was recorded by police as having sufficient evidence to summons, charge, or caution an offender (detected). Where an offender was summonsed, charged, or cautioned, this is classified as detection with a formal sanction. A case can also be classified as "detected" without a formal sanction. The analysis focused on two key categories of detection without formal sanction: cases in which the police deem there to be sufficient evidence to charge an offender but took no further action because the victim did not wish to prosecute, or because the police or the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) decided that no useful purpose would be served by proceeding.
Results: The analysis confirmed that the characteristics of recorded sexual offences involving adult and child victims vary significantly according to gender, offence type, the timing of report and victim-offender relationship. Almost half of child sex abuse cases are not detected by police and a quarter do not proceed through the criminal justice system because either the victim declines to prosecute or the Police/PPS decide not to proceed. Only one in five child cases involved detection with a formal sanction. Child groups with lower detection with formal sanction rates included children under 5, teenagers, those who do not report when the abuse occurs but disclose at a later date; and those who experience abuse at the hands of peers and adults known to them but not related. The analysis also highlighted variation in formal sanction rates depending on where the offence was reported.
Conclusions: Consideration needs to be given to improving the criminal justice response to specific child groups as well as monitoring detection rates in different police areas in order to address potential practice variation.
Practice implications: Consideration needs to be given to improving the professional response in relation to with particularly lower detection with formal sanction rates. There is also a need to monitor case outcomes to ensure that child victims in different areas receive a similar service.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the outcome of Baerveldt implantation with adjunctive mitomycin-C in cases of complicated glaucoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The authors reviewed the charts of all patients who had undergone Baerveldt implantation with mitomycin-C between January 1993 and March 1995. Success was defined before data collection as an intraocular pressure (IOP) between 5 and 21 mm Hg, with or without medications. The success rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier actuarial method. RESULTS: Twenty-nine patients were identified. The mean preoperative IOP was 33.6 mm Hg, with an average of 2.0 antiglaucoma medications. The probability of success at 6 and 12 months for patients who received mitomycin-C during Baerveldt implantation was 82.4% and 73.3%, respectively. Choroidal effusion with a flat anterior chamber (10.3%), corneal edema (6.8%), and conjunctival erosion (6.8%) were the most frequent complications. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective series of complicated glaucoma, the implantation of a Baerveldt drainage device with adjunctive mitomycin-C had a satisfactory outcome. The complications encountered and the clinical efficacy were comparable to those of previously reported series in which mitomycin-C was not used.

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Aims - To evaluate the outcome of filtering procedures supplemented with mitomycin C in children with glaucoma. Methods - All patients aged 17 or younger with glaucoma who underwent filtering surgery supplemented with mitomycin C at a tertiary care centre (n = 21) during a 5 year interval (1992 and 1996) were included. One eye for each patient was entered into the analysis. The postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP), use of antiglaucoma medications, clinical stability of glaucoma, complications, and visual acuity were retrospectively evaluated. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate the probability of success. Results - At the time of surgery mean age was 5.7 (SD 5.0) years. The most common diagnoses were trabeculodysgenesis (n = 6) and aphakic glaucoma (n = 8). Mean IOP before surgery was 35.7 (10.5) mmHg. Average length of follow up was 18.6 (14.7) months. The probability of having IOP less than 21 mmHg with no antiglaucoma medications and with clinically stable glaucoma 1 year after surgery was 76.9% in phakic eyes (n = 13) and 0% in aphakic eyes (n = 8). A phakic patient with Sturge-Weber's syndrome had choroidal effusion after surgery that resolved spontaneously. In the aphakic group one patient had retinal detachment and another developed an encapsulated bleb. Visual acuity deteriorated in one patient. Conclusion - A guarded filtration procedure with mitomycin C is relatively successful in phakic children with glaucoma, but unsuccessful in aphakic ones.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the outcome of functioning filtration surgery followed by cataract surgery with posterior intraocular lens implantation by both phacoemulsification and extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE) techniques in glaucomatous eyes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical course of 77 eyes (68 patients) that after successful trabeculectomy, underwent cataract surgery by either phacoemulsification or ECCE techniques. We determined the frequency of partial and absolute failure following cataract surgery by either phacoemulsification or ECCE in eyes with functioning trabeculectomies. Partial failure of intraocular pressure (IOP), control after cataract extraction was defined as the need for an increased number of antiglaucoma medications or argon laser trabeculoplasty to maintain IOP =21mm Hg. Complete failure of IOP control after cataract surgery was defined as an IOP >21 mm Hg on at least two consecutive measurements one or more weeks apart or the performance of additional filtration surgery. Failure rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier actuarial method. Failure rates between phacoemulsification and ECCE subgroups were compared using the log rank test. RESULTS: The probability of partial failure by the third postoperative year after cataract surgery was 39.5% in the phacoemulsification subgroup and 37.3% in the ECCE subgroup. This small difference is not statistically significant (P = 0.48). The probability of complete failure by the fourth postoperative year after cataract surgery was 12.0% in the phacoemulsification subgroup and 12.5% in the ECCE subgroup. This difference is also not statistically significant (P = 0.77). At the 6-month follow-up visit, visual acuity of both groups improved one or more lines in 87.0% of patients, and worsened one or more lines in 3.9% of patients. Sixty-one percent achieved visual acuity of 20/40 or better. The most frequent complication was posterior capsular opacification requiring laser capsulotomy that occurred in 31.2% of patients. CONCLUSION: Cataract extraction by either phacoemulsification or ECCE following trabeculectomy surgery may be associated with a partial loss of the previously functioning filter and the need for more antiglaucoma medications to control IOP.

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Purpose To evaluate the efficacy and safety of intraoperative mitomycin C (MMC) in eyes undergoing Ahmed Glaucoma Valve implantation. Design Randomized controlled clinical trial. Participants Sixty patients with refractory glaucoma. Intervention Sixty eyes of 60 patients with refractory glaucoma were randomized to receive intraoperative MMC (0.5 mg/ml for 5 minutes) (n = 34) or balanced salt solution (n = 26) during Ahmed Glaucoma Valve implantation. Main outcome measures Surgical success was defined according to 2 different criteria: (1) postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) between 6 and 21 mmHg, with or without antiglaucoma medications, and (2) IOP reduction of at least 30% relative to preoperative values. Eyes requiring additional glaucoma surgery, developing phthisis, or showing loss of light perception were classified as failures. Success rates in both groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the log rank test. Other outcome measures were mean IOP, number of glaucoma medications, and complications. Results After a mean follow-up of 12.3 months, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a probability of success of 59% at 18 months for the MMC group and 61% for the control group when the first criterion for success was used (IOP between 6 and 21 mmHg). When an IOP reduction of at least 30% was used as the criterion to define success, the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated a probability of success at 18 months of 62% for the MMC group and 67% for the control group. There were no significant differences in survival rates between the 2 groups with either criterion (P = 0.75 and P = 0.37, respectively). After 15 days postoperatively, the mean IOP did not significantly differ for both MMC and control eyes. Mean numbers of postoperative antiglaucoma medications were similar in MMC-treated eyes and controls. There was no significant difference between the incidences of postoperative complications in both groups. Conclusion Mitomycin C did not increase the short- or intermediate-term success rates of Ahmed Glaucoma Valve implantation. © 2004 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

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We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

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In conditional probabilistic logic programming, given a query, the two most common forms for answering the query are either a probability interval or a precise probability obtained by using the maximum entropy principle. The former can be noninformative (e.g.,interval [0; 1]) and the reliability of the latter is questionable when the priori knowledge isimprecise. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose some methods to quantitativelymeasure if a probability interval or a single probability is sufficient for answering a query. We first propose an approach to measuring the ignorance of a probabilistic logic program with respect to a query. The measure of ignorance (w.r.t. a query) reflects howreliable a precise probability for the query can be and a high value of ignorance suggests that a single probability is not suitable for the query. We then propose a method to measure the probability that the exact probability of a query falls in a given interval, e.g., a second order probability. We call it the degree of satisfaction. If the degree of satisfaction is highenough w.r.t. the query, then the given interval can be accepted as the answer to the query. We also prove our measures satisfy many properties and we use a case study to demonstrate the significance of the measures. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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Colloidal gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) and precipitation of an insoluble product formed by HRP-biocatalyzed oxidation of 3,3'-diaminobenzidine (DAB) in the presence of H2O2 were used to enhance the signal obtained from the surface plasmon resonance (SPR) biosensor. The AuNPs were synthesized and functionalized with HS-OEG(3)-COOH by self assembling technique. Thereafter, the HS-OEG3-COOH functionalized nanoparticles were covalently conjugated with horseradish peroxidase (HRP) and anti IgG antibody to form an enzyme-immunogold complex. Characterizations were performed by several methods: UV-vis absorption, DLS, HR-TEM and Fr-IR. The Au-anti IgG-HRP complex has been applied in enhancement of SPR immunoassay using a sensor chip constructed by 1:9 molar ratio of HS-OEG(6)-COOH and HS-OEG(3)-OH for detection of anti-GAD antibody. As a result, AuNPs showed their enhancement as being consistent with other previous studies while the enzyme precipitation using DAB substrate was applied for the first time and greatly amplified the SPR detection. The limit of detection was found as low as 0.03 ng/ml of anti-GAD antibody (or 200 fM) which is much higher than that of previous reports. This study indicates another way to enhance SPR measurement, and it is generally applicable to other SPR-based immunoassays.

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A biochip based on surface plasmon resonance was fabricated to detect prostate specific antigen-a1-antichymotrypsin (PSA-ACT complex) in both HBS buffer and human serum. To reduce non-specific binding and steric hindrance effect, the chemical surface of the sensor chips was constructed by using various oligo(ethylene glycol) mixtures of different molar ratios of HS(CH2)11(OCH2CH2)6OCH2COOH and HS(CH2)11(OCH2CH2)3OH. The self-assembled monolayers were biotinylated to facilitate the immobilization of streptavidin. Using the chip surfaces, PSA-ACT complex in HBS buffer and human serum was detected at 20.7 and 47.5 ng/ml by primary immunoresponse, respectively. However, the limit of detection could be simply enhanced by a sandwich strategy to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the immunoassay. An intact PSA polyclonal antibody was used as an amplifying agent in the strategy. As a result, PSA-ACT complex concentrations as low as 10.2 and 18.1 ng/ml were found in the HBS buffer and human serum sample, respectively. The result indicates that this approach could satisfy our goal without modifying the secondary interactant.

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We have developed a new technique for quantifying methionine sulfoxide (MetSO) in protein to assess levels of oxidative stress in physiological systems. In this procedure, samples are hydrolyzed with methanesulfonic acid (MSA) in order to avoid the conversion of MetSO to methionine (Met) that occurs during hydrolysis of protein in HCl. The hydrolysate is fractionated on a cation exchange column to remove the nonvolatile MSA from amino acids, and the amino acids are then derivatized as their trimethylsilyl esters for analysis by selected ion monitoring-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The limit of detection of the assay is 200 pmol of MetSO per analysis, and the interassay coefficient of variation is 5.8%. Compared to current methods, the SIM-GC/MS assay avoids the potential for conversion of Met to MetSO during sample preparation, requires less sample preparation time, has lower variability, and uses mass spectrometry for sensitive and specific analyte detection.

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Despite the increased applications of the composite materials in aerospace due to their exceptional physical and mechanical properties, the machining of composites remains a challenge. Fibre reinforced laminated composites are prone to different damages during machining process such as delamination, fibre pull-out, microcracks, thermal damages. Optimization of the drilling process parameters can reduces the probability of these damages. In the current research, a 3D finite element (FE) model is developed of the process of drilling in the carbon fibre reinforced composite (CFC). The FE model is used to investigate the effects of cutting speed and feed rate on thrust force, torque and delamination in the drilling of carbon fiber reinforced laminated composite. A mesoscale FE model taking into account of the different oriented plies and interfaces has been proposed to predict different damage modes in the plies and delamination. For validation purposes, experimental drilling tests have been performed and compared to the results of the finite element analysis. Using Matlab a digital image analysis code has been developed to assess the delamination factor produced in CFC as a result of drilling. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.

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This paper estimates the marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine using discrete choice modeling. We use primary data from 326 respondents from Bangkok and Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2008–2009, selected using purposive, venue-based sampling across two strata. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and full rank discrete choice modeling task administered using computer-assisted personal interviewing. The choice experiment was used to rank eight hypothetical HIV vaccine scenarios, with each scenario comprising seven attributes (including cost) each of which had two levels. The data were analyzed in two alternative specifications: (1) best-worst; and (2) full-rank, using logit likelihood functions estimated with custom routines in Gauss matrix programming language. In the full-rank specification, all vaccine attributes are significant predictors of probability of vaccine choice. The biomedical attributes of the hypothetical HIV vaccine (efficacy, absence of VISP, absence of side effects, and duration of effect) are the most important attributes for HIV vaccine choice. On average respondents are more than twice as likely to accept a vaccine with 99% efficacy, than a vaccine with 50% efficacy. This translates to a willingness to pay US$383 more for a high efficacy vaccine compared with the low efficacy vaccine. Knowledge of the relative importance of determinants of HIV vaccine acceptability is important to ensure the success of future vaccination programs. Future acceptability studies of hypothetical HIV vaccines should use more finely grained biomedical attributes, and could also improve the external validity of results by including more levels of the cost attribute.

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Schizophrenia is a common disorder with high heritability and a 10-fold increase in risk to siblings of probands. Replication has been inconsistent for reports of significant genetic linkage. To assess evidence for linkage across studies, rank-based genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was applied to data from 20 schizophrenia genome scans. Each marker for each scan was assigned to 1 of 120 30-cM bins, with the bins ranked by linkage scores (1 = most significant) and the ranks averaged across studies (R(avg)) and then weighted for sample size (N(sqrt)[affected casess]). A permutation test was used to compute the probability of observing, by chance, each bin's average rank (P(AvgRnk)) or of observing it for a bin with the same place (first, second, etc.) in the order of average ranks in each permutation (P(ord)). The GSMA produced significant genomewide evidence for linkage on chromosome 2q (PAvgRnk