Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Characterization of ENU-induced mutations in red blood cell structural proteins

Murine models with modified gene function as a result of N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) mutagenesis have been used to study phenotypes resulting from genetic change. This study investigated genetic factors associated with red blood cell (RBC) physiology and structural integrity that may impact on blood component storage and transfusion outcome. Forward and reverse genetic approaches were employed with pedigrees of ENU-treated mice using a homozygous recessive breeding strategy. In a “forward genetic” approach, pedigree selection was based upon identification of an altered phenotype followed by exome sequencing to identify a causative mutation. In a second strategy, a “reverse genetic” approach based on selection of pedigrees with mutations in genes of interest was utilised and, following breeding to homozygosity, phenotype assessed. Thirty-three pedigrees were screened by the forward genetic approach. One pedigree demonstrated reticulocytosis, microcytic anaemia and thrombocytosis. Exome sequencing revealed a novel single nucleotide variation (SNV) in Ank1 encoding the RBC structural protein ankyrin-1 and the pedigree was designated Ank1EX34. The reticulocytosis and microcytic anaemia observed in the Ank1EX34 pedigree were similar to clinical features of hereditary spherocytosis in humans. For the reverse genetic approach three pedigrees with different point mutations in Spnb1 encoding RBC protein spectrin-1β, and one pedigree with a mutation in Epb4.1, encoding band 4.1 were selected for study. When bred to homozygosity two of the spectrin-1β pedigrees (a, b) demonstrated increased RBC count, haemoglobin (Hb) and haematocrit (HCT). The third Spnb1 mutation (spectrin-1β c) and mutation in Epb4.1 (band 4.1) did not significantly affect the haematological phenotype, despite these two mutations having a PolyPhen score predicting the mutation may be damaging. Exome sequencing allows rapid identification of causative mutations and development of databases of mutations predicted to be disruptive. These tools require further refinement but provide new approaches to the study of genetically defined changes that may impact on blood component storage and transfusion outcome.

Regulation and integral control of an underactuated robotic system using IDA-PBC with dynamic extension

This paper proposes a method for design of a set-point regulation controller with integral action for an underactuated robotic system. The robot is described as a port-Hamiltonian system, and the control design is based on a coordinate transformation and a dynamic extension. Both the change of coordinates and the dynamic extension add extra degrees of freedom that facilitate the solution of the matching equation associated with interconnection and damping assignment passivity-based control designs (IDA-PBC). The stability of the controlled system is proved using the closed loop Hamiltonian as a Lyapunov candidate function. The performance of the proposed controller is shown in simulation.

Disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices

Based on a survey of climate change experts in different stakeholder groups and interviews with corporate climate change managers, this study provides insights into the gap between what information stakeholders expect and what Australian corporations disclose. This paper focuses on annual reports and sustainability reports with specific reference to the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices. The findings culminate in the refinement of a best practice index for the disclosure of climate-change-related corporate governance practises. Interview results indicate that the low levels of disclosures made by Australian companies may be due to a number of factors. These include a potential expectations gap, the absence of pressure from powerful stakeholders, a concern for stakeholder information overload, the cost of providing information, limited perceived accountability for climate change, and preferring other media for disclosure.

A controlled, rapid approach to curriculum change

Teachers are continually bombarded with change programs for improvements in areas such as literacy and numeracy, however; the focus is often on the program and not on results (Pertuzé, Calder, Greitzer & Lucas, 2010). When the inevitable failure follows (Fullan, 2005; Gross, Giacquinta & Bernstein, 1971)the school moves on to a new activities-based model.

Beyond BIM: It’s not the end of the road!

Over several decades, academics around the world have investigated the necessary tools, techniques, and conditions which would allow BIM (building information modeling) to become a positive force in the world of construction. As the research results matured, BIM started to become commercially available. Researchers and many in industry soon realized that BIM, as a technological innovation, was, in and of itself, not the end point in the journey. The technical adoption of BIM has to be supported by process and culture change within organizations to make a real impact on a project (for example, see AECbytes Viewpoint #35 by Chuck Eastman, Paul Teicholz, Rafael Sacks and Kathleen Liston). Current academic research aims to understand the steps beyond BIM, which will help chart the future of our industry over the coming decades. This article describes an international research effort in this area, coordinated by the Integrated Design and Delivery Solutions (IDDS) initiative of the CIB (International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction). We hope that it responds to and extends the discussion initiated by Brian Lighthart in AECbytes Viewpoint #56, which asked about who is charting future BIM directions.

Non-monotonic Reasoning and the Reversibility of Belief Change

Traditional approaches to nonmonotonic reasoning fail to satisfy a number of plausible axioms for belief revision and suffer from conceptual difficulties as well. Recent work on ranked preferential models (RPMs) promises to overcome some of these difficulties. Here we show that RPMs are not adequate to handle iterated belief change. Specifically, we show that RPMs do not always allow for the reversibility of belief change. This result indicates the need for numerical strengths of belief.

Validation of a parent-proxy quality of life questionnaire for paediatric chronic cough (PC-QOL)

Background Quality of life (QOL) measures are an important patient-relevant outcome measure for clinical studies. Currently there is no fully validated cough-specific QOL measure for paediatrics. The objective of this study was to validate a cough-specific QOL questionnaire for paediatric use. Method 43 children (28 males, 15 females; median age 29 months, IQR 20–41 months) newly referred for chronic cough participated. One parent of each child completed the 27-item Parent Cough-Specific QOL questionnaire (PC-QOL), and the generic child (Pediatric QOL Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL)) and parent QOL questionnaires (SF-12) and two cough-related measures (visual analogue score and verbal category descriptive score) on two occasions separated by 2–3 weeks. Cough counts were also objectively measured on both occasions. Results Internal consistency for both the domains and total PC-QOL at both test times was excellent (Cronbach alpha range 0.70–0.97). Evidence for repeatability and criterion validity was established, with significant correlations over time and significant relationships with the cough measures. The PC-QOL was sensitive to change across the test times and these changes were significantly related to changes in cough measures (PC-QOL with: verbal category descriptive score, rs=−0.37, p=0.016; visual analogue score, rs=−0.47, p=0.003). Significant correlations of the difference scores for the social domain of the PC-QOL and the domain and total scores of the PedsQL were also noted (rs=0.46, p=0.034). Conclusion The PC-QOL is a reliable and valid outcome measure that assesses QOL related to childhood cough at a given time point and measures changes in cough-specific QOL over time.

A practical and theoretical definition of 'small field'

Introduction The consistency of measuring small field output factors is greatly increased by reporting the measured dosimetric field size of each factor, as opposed to simply stating the nominal field size [1] and therefore requires the measurement of cross-axis profiles in a water tank. However, this makes output factor measurements time consuming. This project establishes at which field size the accuracy of output factors are not affected by the use of potentially inaccurate nominal field sizes, which we believe establishes a practical working definition of a ‘small’ field. The physical components of the radiation beam that contribute to the rapid change in output factor at small field sizes are examined in detail. The physical interaction that dominates the cause of the rapid dose reduction is quantified, and leads to the establishment of a theoretical definition of a ‘small’ field. Methods Current recommendations suggest that radiation collimation systems and isocentre defining lasers should both be calibrated to permit a maximum positioning uncertainty of 1 mm [2]. The proposed practical definition for small field sizes is as follows: if the output factor changes by ±1.0 % given a change in either field size or detector position of up to ±1 mm then the field should be considered small. Monte Carlo modelling was used to simulate output factors of a 6 MV photon beam for square fields with side lengths from 4.0 to 20.0 mm in 1.0 mm increments. The dose was scored to a 0.5 mm wide and 2.0 mm deep cylindrical volume of water within a cubic water phantom, at a depth of 5 cm and SSD of 95 cm. The maximum difference due to a collimator error of ±1 mm was found by comparing the output factors of adjacent field sizes. The output factor simulations were repeated 1 mm off-axis to quantify the effect of detector misalignment. Further simulations separated the total output factor into collimator scatter factor and phantom scatter factor. The collimator scatter factor was further separated into primary source occlusion effects and ‘traditional’ effects (a combination of flattening filter and jaw scatter etc.). The phantom scatter was separated in photon scatter and electronic disequilibrium. Each of these factors was plotted as a function of field size in order to quantify how each affected the change in small field size. Results The use of our practical definition resulted in field sizes of 15 mm or less being characterised as ‘small’. The change in field size had a greater effect than that of detector misalignment. For field sizes of 12 mm or less, electronic disequilibrium was found to cause the largest change in dose to the central axis (d = 5 cm). Source occlusion also caused a large change in output factor for field sizes less than 8 mm. Discussion and conclusions The measurement of cross-axis profiles are only required for output factor measurements for field sizes of 15 mm or less (for a 6 MV beam on Varian iX linear accelerator). This is expected to be dependent on linear accelerator spot size and photon energy. While some electronic disequilibrium was shown to occur at field sizes as large as 30 mm (the ‘traditional’ definition of small field [3]), it has been shown that it does not cause a greater change than photon scatter until a field size of 12 mm, at which point it becomes by far the most dominant effect.

Monte Carlo simulations of small field output factors in solid phantoms

Introduction Total scatter factor (or output factor) in megavoltage photon dosimetry is a measure of relative dose relating a certain field size to a reference field size. The use of solid phantoms has been well established for output factor measurements, however to date these phantoms have not been tested with small fields. In this work, we evaluate the water equivalency of a number of solid phantoms for small field output factor measurements using the EGSnrc Monte Carlo code. Methods The following small square field sizes were simulated using BEAMnrc: 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 30 mm. Each simulated phantom geometry was created in DOSXYZnrc and consisted of a silicon diode (of length and width 1.5 mm and depth 0.5 mm) submersed in the phantom at a depth of 5 g/cm2. The source-to-detector distance was 100 cm for all simulations. The dose was scored in a single voxel at the location of the diode. Interaction probabilities and radiation transport parameters for each material were created using custom PEGS4 files. Results A comparison of the resultant output factors in the solid phantoms, compared to the same factors in a water phantom are shown in Fig. 1. The statistical uncertainty in each point was less than or equal to 0.4 %. The results in Fig. 1 show that the density of the phantoms affected the output factor results, with higher density materials (such as PMMA) resulting in higher output factors. Additionally, it was also calculated that scaling the depth for equivalent path length had negligible effect on the output factor results at these field sizes. Discussion and conclusions Electron stopping power and photon mass energy absorption change minimally with small field size [1]. Also, it can be seen from Fig. 1 that the difference from water decreases with increasing field size. Therefore, the most likely cause for the observed discrepancies in output factors is differing electron disequilibrium as a function of phantom density. When measuring small field output factors in a solid phantom, it is important that the density is very close to that of water.

Response variation of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters

Introduction This study investigates uncertainties pertaining to the use of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters (OSLDs) in radiotherapy dosimetry. The sensitivity of the luminescent material is related to the density of recombination centres [1], which is in the range of 1015–1016 cm-3. Because of this non-uniform distribution of traps in crystal growth the sensitivity varies substantially within a batch of dosimeters. However, a quantitative understanding of the relationship between the response of an OSLD and its sensitive volume has not yet been investigated or reported in literature. Methods In this work, OSLDs are scanned with a MicroCT scanner to determine potential sources for the variation in relative sensitivity across a selection of Landauer nanoDot dosimeters. Specifically, the correlation between a dosimeters relative sensitivity and the loading density of Al2O3:C powder was determined. Results When extrapolating the sensitive volume’s radiodensity from the CT data, it was shown that there is a non-uniform distribution incrystal growth as illustrated in Fig. 1. A plot of voxel count versus the element-specific correction factor is shown in Fig. 2 where each point represents a single OSLD. A line was fitted which has an R2-value of 0.69 and a P-value of 8.21 9 10-19. This data shows that the response of a dosimeter decreases proportionally with sensitive volume. Extrapolating from this data, a quantitative relationship between response and sensitive volume was roughly determined for this batch of dosimeters. A change in volume of 1.176 9 10-5 cm3 corresponds to a 1 % change in response. In other words, a 0.05 % change in the nominal volume of the chip would result in a 1 % change in response. Discussion and conclusions This work demonstrated that the amount of sensitive material is approximately linked to the total correction factor. Furthermore, the ‘true’ volume of an OSLD’s sensitive material is, on average, 17.90 % less than that which has been reported in literature, mainly due to the presence of air cavities in the material’s structure. Finally, the potential effects of the inaccuracy of Al2O3:C deposition increases with decreasing chip size. If a luminescent dosimeter were manufactured with a smaller volume than currently employed using the same manufacturing protocol, the variation in response from chip to chip would more than likely exceed the current 5 % range.

Dispositional resistance to change : measurement equivalence and the link to personal values across 17 nations

The concept of dispositional resistance to change has been introduced in a series of exploratory and confirmatory analyses through which the validity of the Resistance to Change (RTC) Scale has been established (S. Oreg, 2003). However, the vast majority of participants with whom the scale was validated were from the United States. The purpose of the present work was to examine the meaningfulness of the construct and the validity of the scale across nations. Measurement equivalence analyses of data from 17 countries, representing 13 languages and 4 continents, confirmed the cross-national validity of the scale. Equivalent patterns of relationships between personal values and RTC across samples extend the nomological net of the construct and provide further evidence that dispositional resistance to change holds equivalent meanings across nations.

Team change climate : a group-level analysis of the relationships among change information and change participation, role stressors, and well-being

We explored whether teams develop shared perceptions regarding the quantity and quality of information and the extent of participation in decision making provided in an environment of continuous change. In addition, we examined whether change climate strength moderated relationships between change climate level and team outcomes. We examined relationships among aggregated change information and change participation and aggregated team outcomes, including two role stressors (i.e., role ambiguity and role overload) and two indicators of well-being (i.e., quality of worklife and distress). Questionnaires were distributed in an Australian law enforcement agency and data were used from 178 teams. Structural equation modelling analyses, controlling for a marker variable, were conducted to examine the main effects of aggregated change information and aggregated change participation on aggregated team outcomes. Results provided support for a model that included method effects due to a marker variable. In this model, change information climate was significantly negatively associated with role ambiguity, role overload, and distress, and significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change participation climate was significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change climate strength did not moderate relationships among change climate level and team outcomes.

Change readiness : a multilevel review

The authors conducted a theoretical review of the change readiness literature and identified two major limitations with this work. First, while there is substantial agreement about the key cognitions that underlie change readiness, researchers have not examined the affective element of this attitude. Second, researchers have not adopted a multilevel perspective when considering change readiness. The authors address these limitations and argue that it is important to incorporate affect into definitions of the change readiness construct and also when measuring this construct. They then develop a multilevel framework that identifies the antecedents and consequences of individual, work group, and organizational change readiness. Next, the authors outline the theoretical processes that lead to the development of individual and collective change readiness. They then review theoretical and empirical evidence to identify the antecedents of change readiness at the three levels of analysis. Finally, the authors identify a number of suggestions to guide future research seeking to adopt a multilevel approach to change readiness.