991 resultados para market timing


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In Russian there are more than twenty thousand primary substations 35/110 kV and 10/110 kV. According to the Government Plan of Power Industry Development until 2020 year more than hundred new substations will e installed every year and even more renewed. The goal of this Thesis is to find out in this business environment what are the technology opportunities of prefabricated substation modules in new substation or in modernization of old substations in Russia.

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Market orientation is the organizational culture that creates the necessary behaviors for continuous additional value for customers and thus continuous superior performance for the business. The field of market orientation has been studied repeatedly during the past two decades. Yet research has concentrated on large firms in large domestic markets creating a need for diversifying research. The master’s thesis at hand examined the general incidence of market orientation among SMEs from five different industries as well as its consequences on SME performance. The empirical part of the thesis was conducted with a web-based survey that resulted in 255 responses. The data of the survey was analyzed by statistical analysis. The incidence of market orientation varied among dimensions and market orientation did not show any direct effect on firm performance. Customer orientation was the only dimension that showed a direct (positive) effect. On the contrary, moderating effects were found which indicate that the effect of market orientation in SMEs is influenced by other factors that should receive further attention. Also industry specific differences were discovered and should be further examined.

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This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

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Nowadays the Finnish-Russian electric energy interaction is carried out through the back-to-back DC Vyborg substation and several power plants working synchronously with Finnish power system. Constant amount of energy flows in one direction — from Russia to Finland. But the process of electricity market development in Russian energy system makes the new possibilities of electrical cooperation available. The goal of master's thesis is to analyze the current state and possible evolution trends of North-West Russian system in relation with future possible change in power flow between Russia and Finland. The research is done by modelling the market of North-West Russia and examination of technical grid restrictions. The operational market models of North-West region of Russia for the years 2008 and 2015 were created during the research process. The description of prepared market models together with modelling results and their analysis are shown in the work. The description of power flow study process and results are also presented.

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The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

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This thesis investigates performance persistence among the equity funds investing in Russia during 2003-2007. Fund performance is measured using several methods including the Jensen alpha, the Fama-French 3- factor alpha, the Sharpe ratio and two of its variations. Moreover, we apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimation in performance measurement and evaluate its usefulness compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. The pattern of performance persistence is analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation test, cross-sectional regression analysis and stacked return time series. Empirical results indicate that the Bayesian shrinkage estimates may provide better and more accurate estimates of fund performance compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. Secondly, based on the results it seems that the degree of performance persistence is strongly related to length of the observation period. For the full sample period the results show strong signs of performance reversal whereas for the subperiod analysis the results indicate performance persistence during the most recent years.

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The level of health care in Russia is mostly still below the western standards, but lately it has been developing quite positively. Many ICT solutions (telemedicine applications) have been developed for health care in Finland, but since the domestic market is so small, it’s necessary to expand to foreign markets to make the Finnish R&D projects more profitable. Telemedicine applications are not yet widely used in Russia, but since the health care system is going through fast changes, leapfrog effects can be expected and new modern applications and technologies will be implemented. This will open numerous business opportunities for Finnish technology developers. This thesis aims to be the first evaluation of the market and form an outlook of the health care system and telemedicine applications already utilized in Russia. The results of this study can be used for focusing further research ultimately aiming at technology implementation. The study showed that there is potential for many types of telemedicine solutions, e.g. electronic patient records and home monitoring systems; providing that further research in this field is needed.

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The level of health care in Russia is mostly still below the western standards, but lately it has been developing quite positively. Many ICT solutions (telemedicine applications) have been developed for health care in Finland, but since the domestic market is so small, it’s necessary to expand to foreign markets to make the Finnish R&D projects more profitable. Telemedicine applications are not yet widely used in Russia, but since the health care system is going through fast changes, leapfrog effects can be expected and new modern applications and technologies will be implemented. This will open numerous business opportunities for Finnish technology developers. This thesis aims to be the first evaluation of the market and form an outlook of the health care system and telemedicine applications already utilized in Russia. The results of this study can be used for focusing further research ultimately aiming at technology implementation. The study showed that there is potential for many types of telemedicine solutions, e.g. electronic patient records and home monitoring systems; providing that further research in this field is needed.

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[cat] Aquest estudi destaca la importància de considerar un nivell d’agregació adequat en els anàlisis de demanda, ja que treballar utilitzant un nivell d’agregació inadequat pot donar lloc a estimacions esbiaixades. Aquest fet es mostra a través de l’anàlisi de diferents productes de lluç fresc comercialitzats a Mercabarna, el mercat majorista de Barcelona. La literatura sobre la demanda de peix tracta al lluç com un únic producte i espècie. No obstant això, en el mercat espanyol, es comercialitzen molts peixos com a lluç, els quals mostren comportaments molt diferents (des de béns inferiors fins a béns de luxe). Els resultats obtinguts, en concordança amb les observacions empíriques, demostren que l’anàlisi s’ha de realitzar amb un major grau de detall que a nivell d’espècie. Això qüestiona els resultats d’anteriors estudis de demanda i la majoria de les bases de dades, on l’observació del nivell d’agregació adequat dels productes no es té en compte.

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[cat] Aquest estudi destaca la importància de considerar un nivell d’agregació adequat en els anàlisis de demanda, ja que treballar utilitzant un nivell d’agregació inadequat pot donar lloc a estimacions esbiaixades. Aquest fet es mostra a través de l’anàlisi de diferents productes de lluç fresc comercialitzats a Mercabarna, el mercat majorista de Barcelona. La literatura sobre la demanda de peix tracta al lluç com un únic producte i espècie. No obstant això, en el mercat espanyol, es comercialitzen molts peixos com a lluç, els quals mostren comportaments molt diferents (des de béns inferiors fins a béns de luxe). Els resultats obtinguts, en concordança amb les observacions empíriques, demostren que l’anàlisi s’ha de realitzar amb un major grau de detall que a nivell d’espècie. Això qüestiona els resultats d’anteriors estudis de demanda i la majoria de les bases de dades, on l’observació del nivell d’agregació adequat dels productes no es té en compte.

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The paper industry has been experiencing remarkable structural changes since paper demand growth has ceased and some markets are declining. One reason behind the declined demand is the Internet, which has partially substituted the newspaper as a source of information. Paper products alone can no longer provide livelihood, and the paper industry has to find new business areas. In this research, we studied radio frequency identification (RFID), and the market opportunities it could provide for paper industry. The research combined a quantitative industry analysis and qualitative interviews. RFID is a growing industry in the beginning of its life cycle, in which value chains and technologies still evolve significantly. The industry is going to concentrate on the future, and in the long term RFID-identifiers will probably be printed on paper substrate or directly onto products. Paper industry has the chance to enter the RFID industry, but it has to obtain the required competences, for example through acquisitions. The business potential RFID offers to paper industry is inadequate, and while reviewing new strategic options, the paper industry must consider more options, for example the entire printed intelligence.

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This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the timevarying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis.

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The goal of the present work was to describe the wood fuel market of Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus, to estimate wood fuel potential and to research opportunities of wood fuel trading. Nowadays the wood waste, wood residues and by-products are becoming more and more potential raw materials for energy production. Against the background of unstable prices of traditional energy sources and environmental degradation, European States are planning to get 12% of energy from alternative sources already in 2010. Wastes of wood-working and agricultural productions are such sources. At present time the most popular wood biofuels are wood pellets, briquettes, wood chips and logs. Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus have a rather big potential of wood fuel resources. But wood fuels markets of these countries are on the entry level and quite disorganized. There is almost no domestic usage of wood biofuel. All produced pellets, briquettes as well as wood chips and logs go to the export, but the volumes are not high at present time. Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus have a very suitable geographical location. The most promising directions of wood fuel trading are developed wood fuel markets of Northern countries, Austria, Germany as well as actively developing markets of Poland and Hungary. At the long distance truck and sea transportation are the most appropriate. At a short distance cheap transportation by rail is more suitable. Thereby export is a potential opportunity for development of wood fuel production and in the future for usage in the researched countries.

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The paper is focused on feasibility study and market review of small scale bioenergy heating plants in the Russian North-West region. The main focus is effective and competitive usage of low-grade wood for heating purposes in the region. As example of economical feasibility estimation it was chosen the project of reconstruction of small scale boiler plant in Leningrad region that Brofta Oy is planning to implement the nearest time. It includes calculation the payback time with and without interest, the estimation of probable investments, the evaluation of possible risks and research on the potential of small scale heating plants projects. Calculations show that the profitability of this kind of projects is high, but payback time is not very short, because of high level of initial investments. Though, the development of small scale bioenergy heating plants in the region is considered to be the best way to solve the problems of heat supply in small settlements using own biomass resources.