Vyra enie obob čёnno-ličnogo značenija v russkom jazyke

Expressing generalized-personal meaning in Russian Based on data from Russian, this doctoral dissertation examines generalized-personal meaning that is, generic expressions referring to all human beings, people in general, each or any person (e.g. S vozrastom načinae cenit prostye ve či With age you start to appreciate simple things ). The study shares its basic theoretical orientation with functional approaches going from meaning to form . The objective of the thesis is to determine and describe the various linguistic means which can be used by the speaker to express generalized-personal meaning. The main material of the study consists of 2,000 examples collected from modern Russian literature, newspapers, and magazines. The linguistic means of expressing generalized-personal meaning are divided into three main classes. Morphological and lexico-grammatical means (22% of the material) include the use of personal pronouns and personal verbal endings. In Russian, all personal forms except the 3rd person singular can be used in a generalized-personal meaning. Lexical means (14% of the material) involve, above all, pronouns like vse all , ka dyj everyone , nikto no one , as well as the nouns čelovek man and ljudi people . In emotional speech, generalized-personal meaning can also be conveyed lexically by using utterances like da e idiot znaet even an idiot knows . In rhetorical questions the pronoun kto who can appear in this meaning (cf. Kto ne ljubit moro enoe?! Who doesn t like ice cream?! ). The third main class, syntactic means (64% of the material), consists of constructions in which the generic person is not expressed at the surface level. This class mainly includes two-component structures in which the infinitive relates to a modal predicative adverb (e.g. mo no can, be allowed to , nado must ), modal verb (e.g. stoit be worth(while) , sleduet must, be obliged to ), or predicative adverb ending in -о (e.g. trudno it is hard to , neprilično is not appropriate ). Other syntactic means are: one-component infinitive structures, so-called embedded structures, structures with a processual noun, passive constructions, and gerund constructions. The different forms of expression available in Russian are not interchangeable in all contexts. Even if a given context tolerates the substitution of one construction for another, the two expressions are never entirely synonymous. In addition to determining the range of forms which can express generalized-personal meaning, the study aims to compare these forms and to specify the conditions and possible restrictions (contextual, semantic, syntactic, stylistic, etc.) associated with the use of each construction. In Russian linguistics, the generalized-personal meaning has not been extensively studied from a functional perspective. The advantage of a meaning-based functional approach is that it gives a comprehensive picture of the diversity and distribution of the phenomenon.

Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

Construction, installation, and performance of two repacked weighing lysimeters

Weighing lysimeters are the standard method for directly measuring evapotranspiration (ET). This paper discusses the construction, installation, and performance of two (1.52 m × 1.52 m × 2.13-m deep) repacked weighing lysimeters for measuring ET of corn and soybean in West Central Nebraska. The cost of constructing and installing each lysimeter was approximately US $12,500, which could vary depending on the availability and cost of equipment and labor. The resolution of the lysimeters was 0.0001 mV V-1, which was limited by the data processing and storage resolution of the datalogger. This resolution was equivalent to 0.064 and 0.078 mm of ET for the north and south lysimeters, respectively. Since the percent measurement error decreases with the magnitude of the ET measured, this resolution is adequate for measuring ET for daily and longer periods, but not for shorter time steps. This resolution would result in measurement errors of less than 5% for measuring ET values of ≥3 mm, but the percent error rapidly increases for lower ET values. The resolution of the lysimeters could potentially be improved by choosing a datalogger that could process and store data with a higher resolution than the one used in this study.

Ranskan rooli ja asema läntisessä liittoutumassa neljännen ja viidennen tasavallan vaihtumakohdassa 1956-1958

The study discusses the position of France as the United States’ ally in NATO in 1956-1958. The concrete position of France and the role that it was envisioned to have are being treated from the point of view of three participants of the Cold War: France, the United States and the Soviet Union. How did these different parties perceive the question and did these views change when the French Fourth Republic turned into the Fifth in 1958? The study is based on published French and American documents of Foreign Affairs. Because of problems with accessibility to the Soviet archival sources, the study uses reports on France-NATO relations of Pravda newspaper, the official organ of the Communist Party of the USSR, to provide information about how the Soviet side saw the question. Due to the nature and use of source material, and the chronological structure of the work, the study belongs methodologically to the research field of History of International Relations. As distinct from political scientists’ field of research, more prone to theorize, the study is characteristically a historical research, a work based on qualitative method and original sources that aims at creating a coherent narrative of the views expressed during the period covered by the study. France’s road to a full membership of NATO is being treated on the basis of research literature, after which discussions about France’s position in the Western Alliance are being chronologically traced for the period of last years of the Fourth Republic and the immediate months of coming back to power of Charles de Gaulle. Right from the spring of 1956 there can be seen aspirations of France, on one hand, to maintain her freedom of action inside the Western Alliance and, on the other, to widen the dialogue between the allies. The decision on France’s own nuclear deterrent was made already during the Fourth Republic, when it was thought to become part of NATO’s common defence. This was to change with de Gaulle. The USA felt that France still fancied herself as a great power and that she could not participate in full in NATO’s common defence because of her colonies. The Soviet Union saw the concrete position of France in the Alliance as in complete dependence on the USA, but her desired role was expressed largely in “Gaullist” terms. The expressions used by the General and the Soviet propaganda were close to each other, but the Soviet Union could not support de Gaulle without endangering the position of the French Communist Party. Between the Fourth and Fifth Republics no great rupture in content took place concerning the views of France’s role and position in the Western Alliance. The questions posed by de Gaulle had been expressed during the whole period of Fourth Republic’s existence. Instead, along with the General the weight and rhetoric of these questions saw a great change. Already in the early phase the Americans saw it possible that with de Gaulle, France would try to change her role. The rupture took place in the form of expression, rather than in its content.

Evaluation of three storage systems used for chilling and holding swordfish

Swordfish are kept chilled, not frozen, for up to 15 days before being unloaded at Australian ports. Swordfish landed alive, and to a lesser extent prerigor, have better quality when unloaded. Warmer fishing waters did not lead to poorer quality at unloading. There was a serious loss of quality during long fishing trips. Sex had no influence on swordfish quality. Three methods of chilling were evaluated: refrigerated seawater (RSW) chilling for up to 2 days followed by storage under ice, refrigerated brine (seawater with extra salt added) for up to 2 days followed by storage in a freshwater ice slurry, and ice slurry (freshwater ice mixed with seawater) for up to 2 days followed by storage under ice only. Two fishing trips were monitored for each method. The freshness indicator K value was used to determine which method produced the best quality swordfish when unloaded at the factory. Storage method played a larger role in quality loss than capture conditions. Refrigerated brine produced the best quality swordfish when the machinery functioned properly closely followed by RSW. Ice slurry chilling of large fish such as swordfish exhibited initial delays in the reduction of core temperature which led to lower quality. This method could be improved with the addition of mechanical circulation. Mechanical problems, which resulted in minor increases of temperature during brine storage, led to a much larger loss of quality than would be expected.

Diet-induced hypercholesterolemia promotes androgen-independent prostate cancer metastasis via IQGAP1 and caveolin-1

Obesity and metabolic syndrome are associated with several cancers, however, the molecular mechanisms remain to be fully elucidated. Recent studies suggest that hypercholesterolemia increases intratumoral androgen signaling in prostate cancer, but it is unclear whether androgenindependent mechanisms also exist. Since hypercholesterolemia is associated with advanced, castrate-resistant prostate cancer, in this study, we aimed to determine whether and how hypercholesterolemia affects prostate cancer progression in the absence of androgen signaling. We demonstrate that diet-induced hypercholesterolemia promotes orthotopic xenograft PC-3 cell metastasis, concomitant with elevated expression of caveolin-1 and IQGAP1 in xenograft tumor tissues. In vitro cholesterol treatment of PC-3 cells stimulated migration and increased IQGAP1 and caveolin-1 protein level and localization to a detergent-resistant fraction. Down-regulation of caveolin-1 or IQGAP1 in PC-3 cells reduced migration and invasion in vitro, and hypercholesterolemia-induced metastasis in vivo. Double knock-down of caveolin-1 and IQGAP1 showed no additive effect, suggesting that caveolin-1 and IQGAP1 act via the same pathway. Taken together, our data show that hypercholesterolemia promotes prostate cancer metastasis independent of the androgen pathway, in part by increasing IQGAP1 and caveolin-1. These results have broader implications for managing metastasis of cancers in general as IQGAP1 and hypercholesterolemia are implicated in the progression of several cancers.

Determinants of vascular cognitive impairment : White matter lesions, brain atrophy and their neuropsychological correlates

The concept of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) covers a wide spectrum of cognitive dysfunctions related to cerebrovascular disease. Among the pathophysiological determinants of VCI are cerebral stroke, white matter lesions and brain atrophy, which are known to be important risk factors for dementia. However, the specific mechanisms behind the brain abnormalities and cognitive decline are still poorly understood. The present study investigated the neuropsychological correlates of particular magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings, namely, medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), white matter hyperintensities (WMH), general cortical atrophy and corpus callosum (CC) atrophy in subjects with cerebrovascular disease. Furthermore, the cognitive profile of subcortical ischaemic vascular disease (SIVD) was examined. This study was conducted as part of two large multidisciplinary study projects, the Helsinki Stroke Aging Memory (SAM) Study and the multinational Leukoaraiosis and Disability (LADIS) Study. The SAM cohort consisted of 486 patients, between 55 and 85 years old, with ischaemic stroke from the Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. The LADIS Study included a mixed sample of subjects (n=639) with age-related WMH, between 65 and 84 years old, gathered from 11 centres around Europe. Both studies included comprehensive clinical and neuropsychological assessments and detailed brain MRI. The relationships between the MRI findings and the neuropsychological test performance were analysed by controlling for relevant confounding factors such as age, education and other coexisting brain lesions. The results revealed that in elderly patients with ischaemic stroke, moderate to severe MTA was specifically related to impairment of memory and visuospatial functions, but mild MTA had no clinical relevance. Instead, WMH were primarily associated with executive deficits and mental slowing. These deficits mediated the relationship between WMH and other, secondary cognitive deficits. Cognitive decline was best predicted by the overall degree of WMH, whereas the independent contribution of regional WMH measures was low. Executive deficits were the most prominent cognitive characteristic in SIVD. Compared to other stroke patients, the patients with SIVD also presented more severe memory deficits, which were related to MTA. The cognitive decline in SIVD occurred independently of depressive symptoms and, relative to healthy control subjects, it was substantial in severity. In stroke patients, general cortical atrophy also turned out to be a strong predictor of cognitive decline in a wide range of cognitive domains. Moreover, in elderly subjects with WMH, overall CC atrophy was related to reduction in mental speed, while anterior CC atrophy was independently associated with frontal lobe-mediated executive functions and attention. The present study provides cross-sectional evidence for the involvement of WMH, MTA, general cortical atrophy and CC atrophy in VCI. The results suggest that there are multifaceted pathophysiological mechanisms behind VCI in the elderly, including both vascular ischaemic lesions and neurodegenerative changes. The different pathological changes are highly interrelated processes and together they may produce cumulative effects on cognitive decline.

The regional differences between countries in traffic safety: A cross-cultural study and Turkish Case

Road traffic accidents are a large problem everywhere in the world. However, regional differences in traffic safety between countries are considerable. For example, traffic safety records are much worse in Southern Europe and the Middle East than in Northern and Western Europe. Despite the large regional differences in traffic safety, factors contributing to different accident risk figures in different countries and regions have remained largely unstudied. The general aim of this study was to investigate regional differences in traffic safety between Southern European/Middle Eastern (i.e., Greece, Iran, Turkey) and Northern/Western European (i.e., Finland, Great Britain, The Netherlands) countries and to identify factors related to these differences. We conducted seven sub-studies in which I applied a traffic culture framework, including a multi-level approach, to traffic safety. We used aggregated level data (national statistics), surveys among drivers, and data on traffic accidents and fatalities in the analyses. In the first study, we investigated the influence of macro level factors (i.e., economic, societal, and cultural) on traffic safety across countries. The results showed that a high GNP per capita and conservatism correlated with a low number of traffic fatalities, whereas a high degree of uncertainty avoidance, neuroticism, and egalitarianism correlated with a high number of traffic fatalities. In the second, third, and fourth studies, we examined whether the conceptualisation of road user characteristics (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) varied across traffic cultures and how these factors determined overall safety, and the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results showed that the factorial agreement for driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive driving) and performance (i.e., safety skills) was unsatisfactory in Greece, Iran, and Turkey, where the lack of social tolerance and interpersonal aggressive violations seem to be important characteristics of driving. In addition, we found that driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive violations and errors) mediated the relationship between culture/country and accidents. Besides, drivers from "dangerous" Southern European countries and Iran scored higher on aggressive violations and errors than did drivers from "safe" Northern European countries. However, "speeding" appeared to be a "pan-cultural" problem in traffic. Similarly, aggressive driving seems largely depend on road users' interactions and drivers' interpretation (i.e., cognitive biases) of the behaviour of others in every country involved in the study. Moreover, in all countries, a risky general driving style was mostly related to being young and male. The results of the fifth and sixth studies showed that among young Turkish drivers, gender stereotypes (i.e., masculinity and femininity) greatly influence driver behaviour and performance. Feminine drivers were safety-oriented whereas masculine drivers were skill-oriented and risky drivers. Since everyday driving tasks involve not only erroneous (i.e., risky or dangerous driving) or correct performance (i.e., normal habitual driving), but also "positive" driver behaviours, we developed a reliable scale for measuring "positive" driver behaviours among Turkish drivers in the seventh study. Consequently, I revised Reason's model [Reason, J. T., 1990. Human error. Cambridge University Press: New York] of aberrant driver behaviour to represent a general driving style, including all possible intentional behaviours in traffic while evaluating the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results emphasise the importance of economic, societal and cultural factors, general driving style and skills, which are related to exposure, cognitive biases as well as age, sex, and gender, in differences between countries in traffic safety.

Social and physical environments in senior communities: The Finnish experience

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss residents’ views of social and physical environments in a co-housing and in a senior housing setting in Finland. Also, the study aims to point out important connections between well-being and built environment. Design/methodology/approach – The data include interviews and survey responses gathered in the cases. The results and analysis are presented at different case study levels, with the discussion and conclusions following this. Findings – The findings show that the physical environment and common areas have an important role to activate residents. When well-designed common areas exist, a higher level of engagement can be achieved by getting residents involved in the planning and running of activities. Research limitations/implications – This paper discusses residents’ experiences in two Finnish housing settings and it focuses on the housing market in Finland. Practical implications – The findings encourage investors and housing operators to design and invest common areas which could activate residents and create social contacts. Also, investors have to pay attention to the way these developments are managed. Originality/value – This study is the first to investigate the Finnish co-housing setting and compare social and physical environments in a co-housing and a senior house.

MOE and MOR assessment technologies for improving graded recovery of exotic pines in Australia.

This project was designed to provide the structural softwood processing industry with the basis for improved green and dry grading to allow maximise MGP grade yields, consistent product performance and reduced processing costs. To achieve this, advanced statistical techniques were used in conjunction with state-of-the-art property measurement systems. Specifically, the project aimed to make two significant steps forward for the Australian structural softwood industry: • assessment of technologies, both existing and novel, that may lead to selection of a consistent, reliable and accurate device for the log yard and green mill. The purpose is to more accurately identify and reject material that will not make a minimum grade of MGP10 downstream; • improved correlation of grading MOE and MOR parameters in the dry mill using new analytical methods and a combination of devices. The three populations tested were stiffness-limited radiata pine, strength-limited radiata pine and Caribbean pine. Resonance tests were conducted on logs prior to sawmilling, and on boards. Raw data from existing in-line systems were captured for the green and dry boards. The dataset was analysed using classical and advanced statistical tools to provide correlations between data sets and to develop efficient strength and stiffness prediction equations. Stiffness and strength prediction algorithms were developed from raw and combined parameters. Parameters were analysed for comparison of prediction capabilities using in-line parameters, off-line parameters and a combination of in-line and off-line parameters. The results show that acoustic resonance techniques have potential for log assessment, to sort for low stiffness and/or low strength, depending on the resource. From the log measurements, a strong correlation was found between the average static MOE of the dried boards within a log and the predicted value. These results have application in segregating logs into structural and non-structural uses. Some commercial technologies are already available for this application such as Hitman LG640. For green boards it was found that in-line and laboratory acoustic devices can provide a good prediction of dry static MOE and moderate prediction for MOR.There is high potential for segregating boards at this stage of processing. Grading after the log breakdown can improve significantly the effectiveness of the mill. Subsequently, reductions in non-structural volumes can be achieved. Depending on the resource it can be expected that a 5 to 8 % reduction in non structural boards won’t be dried with an associated saving of $70 to 85/m3. For dry boards, vibration and a standard Metriguard CLT/HCLT provided a similar level of prediction on stiffness limited resource. However, Metriguard provides a better strength prediction in strength limited resources (due to this equipment’s ability to measure local characteristics). The combination of grading equipment specifically for stiffness related predictors (Metriguard or vibration) with defect detection systems (optical or X-ray scanner) provides a higher level of prediction, especially for MOR. Several commercial technologies are already available for acoustic grading on board such those from Microtec, Luxscan, Falcon engineering or Dynalyse AB for example. Differing combinations of equipment, and their strategic location within the processing chain, can dramatically improve the efficiency of the mill, the level of which will vary depending of the resource. For example, an initial acoustic sorting on green boards combined with an optical scanner associated with an acoustic system for grading dry board can result in a large reduction of the proportion of low value low non-structural produced. The application of classical MLR on several predictors proved to be effective, in particular for MOR predictions. However, the usage of a modern statistics approach(chemometrics tools) such as PLS proved to be more efficient for improving the level of prediction. Compared to existing technologies, the results of the project indicate a good improvement potential for grading in the green mill, ahead of kiln drying and subsequent cost-adding processes. The next stage is the development and refinement of systems for this purpose.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient transport from cropping systems on Red Ferrosols in tropical northern Australia.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss were assessed on a Red Ferrosol in tropical Australia over 3 years. The experiment was conducted using bounded, 100-m(2) field plots cropped to peanuts, maize, or grass. A bare plot, without cover or crop, was also instigated as an extreme treatment. Results showed the importance of cover in reducing runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss from these soils. Runoff ranged from 13% of incident rainfall for the conventional cultivation to 29% under bare conditions during the highest rainfall year, and was well correlated with event rainfall and rainfall energy. Soil loss ranged from 30 t/ha. year under bare conditions to <6 t/ha. year under cropping. Nutrient losses of 35 kg N and 35 kg P/ha. year under bare conditions and 17 kg N and 11 kg P/ha. year under cropping were measured. Soil carbon analyses showed a relationship with treatment runoff, suggesting that soil properties influenced the rainfall runoff response. The cropping systems model PERFECT was calibrated using runoff, soil loss, and soil water data. Runoff and soil loss showed good agreement with observed data in the calibration, and soil water and yield had reasonable agreement. Longterm runs using historical weather data showed the episodic nature of runoff and soil loss events in this region and emphasise the need to manage land using protective measures such as conservation cropping practices. Farmers involved in related, action-learning activities wished to incorporate conservation cropping findings into their systems but also needed clear production benefits to hasten practice change.

The function of Bmps and Runx2 in normal tooth development and in the pathogenesis of cleidocranial dysplasia

The development of many embryonic organs is regulated by reciprocal and sequential epithelial-mesenchymal interactions. These interactions are mediated by conserved signaling pathways that are reiteratively used. Cleidocranial dysplasia (CCD) is a congenital syndrome where both bone and tooth development is affected. The syndrome is characterized by short stature, abnormal clavicles, general bone dysplasia, and supernumerary teeth. CCD is caused by mutations in RUNX2, a transcription factor that is a key regulator of osteoblast differentiation and bone formation. The first aim of this study was to analyse the expression of a family of key signal molecules, Bone morphogenetic protein (Bmp) at different stages of tooth development. Bmps have a variety of functions and they were originally discovered as signals inducing ectopic bone formation. We performed a comparative in situ hybridisation analysis of the mRNA expression of Bmp2-7 from initiation of tooth development to differentiation of dental hard tissues. The expression patterns indicated that the Bmps signal between the epithelial and mesenchymal tissues during initiation and morphogenesis of tooth development, as well as during the differentiation of odontoblasts and ameloblasts. Furthermore, they are also part of the signalling networks whereby the enamel knot regulates the patterning of tooth cusps. The second aim was to study the role of Runx2 during tooth development and thereby to gain better understanding of the pathogenesis of the tooth phenotype in CCD. We analysed the tooth phenotype of Runx2 knockout mice and examined the patterns and regulation of Runx2 gene expression.. The teeth of wild-type and Runx2 mutant mice were compared by several methods including in situ hybridisation, tissue culture, bead implantation experiments, and epithelial-mesenchymal recombination studies. Phenotypic analysis of Runx2 -/- mutant tooth development showed that teeth failed to advance beyond the bud stage. Runx2 expression was restricted to dental mesenchyme between the bud and early bell stages of tooth development and it was regulated by epithelial signals, in particular Fgfs. We searched for downstream targets of Runx2 by comparative in situ hybridisation analysis. The expression of Fgf3 was downregulated in the mesenchyme of Runx2 -/- teeth. Shh expression was absent from the enamel knot in the lower molars of Runx2 -/- and reduced in the upper molars. In conclusion, these studies showed that Runx2 regulates key epithelial-mesenchymal interactions that control advancing tooth morphogenesis and histodifferentiation of the epithelial enamel organ. In addition, in the upper molars of Runx2 mutants extra buddings occured at the palatal side of the tooth bud. We suggest that Runx2 acts as an inhibitor of successional tooth formation by preventing advancing development of the buds. Accordingly, we propose that RUNX2 haploinsuffiency in humans causes incomplete inhibition of successional tooth formation and as a result supernumerary teeth.

Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

ACIAR Scoping Study on disease and agronomic issues - Vanuatu

ACIAR Scoping Study on disease and agronomic issues - Vanuatu.