Financial Policies and Dynamic Game Simulation in Poland and Hungary

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in the same level and development stages are similar in these two countries. It is assumed that these two economies have the same export market and export goods are competing in it. If one country has an expansion of monetary policy, price increase and interest rate decrease. Then, exchange rate decrease. Exports and GDP will increase through this phenomenon. At the same time, this expanded monetary policy affects another country through the trade. This mutual relationship between two countries can be expressed by the Nash-equilibrium in the Game theory. In this paper, macro-econometric models of Polish and Hungarian economies are built and the Nash- equilibrium is introduced into them.

Technology Choice in the IT Industry and Changes of the Trade Structure

In the IT industry, there has been a remarkable increase in the demand for system LSI. A system LSI must be produced, tailor-designed for each electrical appliance. It is said that this production method has made the IC cycle ambiguous in recent years. It can be sought that the choice of whether the economy pursues a development path centering on technology which is tradable or technology which is embodied in labor, depends on the historical background. The relationship between these two types of technologies is changing rapidly every one or two years. In this background, the analysis is focused on the new trend of technology. In the section 2, the newest trend of technology in the field of system LSI is explained. Then, which kind of technology will be developed and how it will have an affect in the near future, is considered.

Trade Coefficients and the Role of Elasticity in a Spatial CGE Model Based on the Armington Assumption

The Armington Assumption in the context of multi-regional CGE models is commonly interpreted as follows: Same commodities with different origins are imperfect substitutes for each other. In this paper, a static spatial CGE model that is compatible with this assumption and explicitly considers the transport sector and regional price differentials is formulated. Trade coefficients, which are derived endogenously from the optimization behaviors of firms and households, are shown to take the form of a potential function. To investigate how the elasticity of substitutions affects equilibrium solutions, a simpler version of the model that incorporates three regions and two sectors (besides the transport sector) is introduced. Results indicate: (1) if commodities produced in different regions are perfect substitutes, regional economies will be either autarkic or completely symmetric and (2) if they are imperfect substitutes, the impact of elasticity on the price equilibrium system as well as trade coefficients will be nonlinear and sometimes very sensitive.

政治制度形成の論理 －新興民主主義国の制度分析に向けて－

本稿は政治制度をめぐる二つの大きな理論的流れについて整理したものである。一つは、制度の効果に注目する外生的制度論の流れである。制度の効果を前提としたうえで，自己利益極大化のためそうした効果を期待する制度設計者によって制度が設計されたと考えるものである。取引費用の低減、集合行為問題の解決などがそのカギとなる。もう一つは、制度をプレーヤーたちの行うゲームのなかでの均衡と考える議論である。プレーヤーのインセンティブを重視し、制度形成を内生的なメカニズムのなかで考えるもので、内生的制度論と呼ばれる。

Border Trade and Economic Zones on the North-South Economic Corridor: Focusing on the Connecting Points between the Four Countries

The North-South Economic Corridor (NSEC), the road between Bangkok and Kunming, China, including the Laos route (R3B) and the Myanmar route (R3B), has been developed since 1998 following the GMS program. The region covering Yunnan Province in China, Shan State in Myanmar, Northern Laos and Northern Thailand has historical and ethnic closeness, and is a comparatively poor mountainous, boundary area. In the wake of the development of the NSEC, however, the region has started to show signs of change. Consequently, a review is to be carried out concerning the movement of people and cars, border trade and the situation concerning the progress of border economic zones at the five nodal border points in the four countries, and over three routes: R3A, R3B, and the Mekong River route.

Issues Affecting the Movement of Rural Labour in Myanmar: Rakhine Case Study

This paper presents issues affecting the movement of rural labour in Myanmar, by examining the background, purpose and earned income of labourers migrating to fishing villages in southern Rakhine. A broad range of socioeconomic classes, from poor to rich, farmers to fishermen, is migrating from broader areas to specific labour-intensive fishing subsectors, such as anchovy fishing. These labourers are a mixed group of people whose motives lie either in supplementing their household income or accumulating capital for further expansion of their economic activities. The concentration of migrating labourers with different objectives in this particular unstable, unskilled employment opportunity suggests an insufficiently developed domestic labour market in rural Myanmar. There is a pressing need to create stable labour-intensive industries to meet this demand.

Who Uses FTAs?

It is noted that utilization of AFTA is low by international standards. In order to clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper investigates what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use FTAs in their exporting, by employing unique affiliate-level data. Our findings are as follow. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified its procurements’ origins are, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates exporting actively to developing countries are more likely to use FTAs than those exporting to developed countries. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates’ locations and sectors. These results afford a clue to the reasons for the low FTA utilization in East Asia.

Market Access and Intermediate Goods Trade

The role of importer access to the finished goods market in intermediate goods trade is examined by estimating the gravity-like equation derived from the NEG model. Importer access to demand for finished goods is calculated by using the estimates in the gravity equation for finished goods trade, and then intermediate goods trade is regressed on the importer access. Results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are sensitive not only to the magnitude of importer demand for finished goods but also to the demand of neighboring countries. Using results of the regression, the impact of US finished goods market expansion on intermediate goods trade in each country is simulated.

人身取引問題に対するタイの法的枠組みにかんする一考察―ミャンマーからタイへの人口流入を背景として―

2003年人身取引にかんする議定書の発効を機に人身取引問題への取り組みがグローバル規模の課題となっている。タイは，2006年UNODCの報告によれば，人身取引被害者の出身国，中継国そして到達国としてもっとも高い指標に位置づけられている。本稿は，タイにおける人身取引問題のなかでも，ミャンマーからタイヘの多数の人口の流入が人身取引を誘発する要因のひとつをなしている点に着目し，ミャンマーからタイヘの人身取引問題とタイの移民労働政策との断ちがたい関係を分析し，それに対するタイおよびミャンマーの法的枠組みを考察する。タイにおけるミャンマー人の人身取引被害を労働搾取という観点からアプローチし，人身取引問題の解決には，刑法上の人身取引罪の加害者および被害者として法的手続で処理することに加え，自国の政治的経済的要因によってミャンマーからタイヘ越境し人身取引被害者となった者にとって最善の解決につながる法政策，さらには労働搾取による人身取引被害者をなくすための法政策が不可欠であることを論じる。

Measuring Fiscal Decentralization in the Philippines

This paper focuses on the fiscal decentralization in the Philippines after the 1991 Local Government Code. It first examines the intergovernmental fiscal relationship between central and local governments by using fiscal decentralization indicators, and then investigates its impact on local finance. After fiscal decentralization, the local expenditure responsibility is expanded while the local fiscal capacity is not strengthened in the Philippines. Local governments consequently comes to depend heavily on fiscal transfers from the central government, internal revenue allotments (IRAs), which has a substantial influence on local finance. The heavy dependence on IRAs makes local finance unpredictable and unstable. The distribution of IRAs also affects the horizontal balance between provincial governments.

The Iron and Steel Industry in Asia: Development and Restructuring

The paper examines the development and restructuring of the iron and steel industry in Asian countries. Studying countries that have integrated steelworks with large blast furnaces (South Korea, Taiwan, China and India) and countries without (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia), the paper shows the difference in the development processes across the countries and across time, and points to the diversity of the development experience of these countries. The paper argues that significant differences in steel production technologies in terms of initial investment and minimum-efficient scale, the changing role of the state, and shifting demand structures in the domestic steel markets of each country have been the important factors that led to the differences in the development path of the steel industry in each country.

Complex Vertical FDI and Firm Heterogeneity: Evidence from East Asia

In this paper we statistically test the validity of the mechanics of complex VFDI in Japanese machinery FDI to East Asia; we do this by estimating a multiple-spatial lag model. From the theoretical point of view, in complex VFDI, the production activity of affiliates in a given country is positively related to that in neighboring countries which have large differences in factor prices with the given country. Our empirical results show that such mechanics of complex VFDI work in Japanese FDI to East Asia, and that they work more strongly in the MNEs with higher productivity. These results have an important implication for the policies of developing countries in attracting FDI.

Agglomeration versus Fragmentation:A Comparison of East Asia and Europe

Inspired by the observed contrasting patterns of industrial distribution in East Asia and Europe, this paper conducts an empirical clarification of the difference in spatial relationships among countries within a region for the electric machinery industry by use of spatial econometric analysis. The results indicate that, while production in the electric machinery industry in a country is positively correlated with that of neighboring countries in East Asia, there is no significant spatial correlation in Europe. Such a difference in spatial interdependence has important implications for economic development in those regions.

The Effect of Product Classifications on the Formulation of Export Unit Value Indices: A Comparison of Export Unit Value Indices based on SITC and HS

With the globalization of economic activity, the relative weight of foreign trade in national economic activities has increased, and the question of how to measure trends in the value and quantity of international trade has become an important issue for policy-makers and economists. This paper compares the chain-linked indices formulated by Masato Kuroko, based on HS this fiscal year for individual industry categories and countries with chain-linked indices based on SITC-R1 codes, in order to study how changes in the quality composition of the same products, which cannot be considered using unit value indices based on SITC-R1 codes, can be considered using unit value indices based on the more detailed HS product classifications.