905 resultados para Causal Judgment
Resumo:
Miconazole nitrate (2%) cream was evaluated in the treatment of superficial mycoses. Out of 116 patients having multiple clinical diagnoses, 66 cases were found to be positive by culture. Species of Trichophyton were the predominant etiological agents (in over 60%) followed by Candida species (20%) and Epidermophyton floccosum (15%). All the cases selected for study were followed up to a period of 4–18 months. A cure rate of 94.6 per cent was observed in all the cases where causal organisms were isolated. Significantly high cure rate (66%) was also seen in cases where causal organisms could not be isolated, including cases of tinea versicolor. Results of mycological examination were in confirmity with the clinical results
Resumo:
In What We Owe to Each Other, T.M. Scanlon formulated a new version of the ethical theory called contractualism. This theory took reasons considerations that count in favour of judgment-sensitive attitudes to be the fundamental normative notion. It then used normative reasons to first account for evaluative properties. For an object to be valuable, on this view, is for it to have properties that provide reasons to have favourable attitudes towards the bearer of value. Scanlon also used reasons to account for moral wrongness. His contractualism claims that an act is morally wrong if it is forbidden by any set of moral principles that no one could reasonably reject. My thesis consists of five previously published articles which attempt to clarify Scanlon s theory and to defend it against its critics. The first article defends the idea that normative reason-relations are fundamental against Joshua Gert. Gert argues that rationality is a more basic notion than reasons and that reasons can be analysed in terms of their rationally requiring and justifying dimensions. The second article explores the relationship between value and reasons. It defends Scanlon s view according to which reasons are the more basic than value against those who think that reasons are based on the evaluative realm. The last three articles defend Scanlon s views about moral wrongness. The first one of them discusses a classic objection to contractualist theories. This objection is that principles which no one could reasonably reject are redundant in accounting for wrongness. This is because we need a prior notion of wrongness to select those principles and because such principles are not required to make actions wrong or to provide reasons against wrong actions. The fourth article explores the distinctive reasons which contractualists claim there are for avoiding the wrong actions. The last article argues against the critics of contractualism who claim that contractualism has implausible normative consequences for situations related to the treatment of different-sized groups of people.
Resumo:
The Politics of Pulp Investment and the Brazilian Landless Movement (MST) The paper industry has been moving more heavily to the global South at the beginning of the 21st century. In a number of cases the rural populations of the global South have engaged in increasingly important resistance in their scuffle with the large-scale tree plantation-relying pulp investment model. The resistance had generally not yet managed to slow down Southern industrial tree plantation expansion until 2004. After all, even the MST, perhaps the strongest of the Southern movements, has limited power in comparison to the corporations pushing for plantation expansion. This thesis shows how, even against these odds, depending on the mechanisms of contention and case-specific conflict dynamics, in some cases the movements have managed to slow and even reverse plantation expansion. The thesis is based on extensive field research in the Brazilian countryside. It outlines a new theory of contentious agency promotion, emphasizing its importance in the shaping of corporate resource exploitation. The thesis includes a Qualitative Comparative Analysis of resistance influence on the economic outcomes of all (14) Brazilian large-scale pulp projects between 2004-2008. The central hypothesis of the thesis is that corporate resource exploitation can be slowed down more effectively and likely when the resistance is based on contentious agency. Contentious agency is created by the concatenation of five mutually supporting mechanisms of contention: organizing and politicizing a social movement; heterodox framing of pulp projects; protesting; networking; and embedding whilst maintaining autonomy. The findings suggest that contentious agency can slow or even reverse the expansion of industrial plantations, whereas when contentious agency promotion was inactive, fast or even unchecked plantation expansion was always the outcome. The rule applied to all the assessed 14 pulp conflict cases. The hypothesis gained strong support even in situations where corporate agency promotion was simultaneously active. In previous studies on social movements, there has been a lack of contributions that help us understand the causal mechanisms of contention influencing economic outcomes. The thesis answers to the call by merging a Polanyian analysis of the political economy with the Dynamics of Contention research program and making a case for the impact of contentious agency on capital accumulation. The research concludes that an efficient social movement can utilize mechanisms of contention to promote the potential of activism among its members and influence investment outcomes. Protesting, for example via pioneering land occupations, seemed to be particularly important. Until now, there has been no comprehensive theory on when and how contentious agency can slow down or reverse the expansion of corporate resource exploitation. The original contribution of this research is to provide such a theory, and utilize it to offer an extensive explanation on the conflicts over pulp investment in Brazil, the globalization of the paper industry, and slowing of industrial plantation expansion in the global South.
Resumo:
In this paper we consider HCI's role in technology interventions for health and well-being. Three projects carried out by the authors are analysed by appropriating the idea of a value chain to chart a causal history from proximal effects generated in early episodes of design through to distal health and well-being outcomes. Responding to recent arguments that favour bounding HCI's contribution to local patterns of use, we propose an unbounded view of HCI that addresses an extended value chain of influence. We discuss a view of HCI methods as mobilising this value chain perspective in multi-disciplinary collaborations through its emphasis on early prototyping and naturalistic studies of use.
Resumo:
This qualitative study offers insight into the experiences, expectations, perceptions and beliefs that may lead to laparoscopic adjustable gastric band patients’ failure to achieve expected weight loss and seek revisional bariatric surgery. The 23 participants from two sites were interviewed and data were analysed from a grounded theory methodology in order to build a causal model. Analysis of participants’ reports identified ‘unrealistic expectations of the LAGB’ as the core category. Additionally, the restriction of the band had a negative impact on participants’ social interactions, leading to feelings of deprivation and, thus, to a desire for reward from food choices and consequently an increase of consumption of high-calorie-dense foods. These foods were chosen because of their specific texture or ability to provide reward. The resulting increase in weight or failure to achieve excess weight loss, led to feelings of shame and loneliness and emotional eating resulting in increased the consumption of rewarding foods. Thus, identifying unrealistic expectations of laparoscopic adjustable gastric band (LAGB) and emotional eating behaviours are important in those who are present initially for primary bariatric and revisional bariatric surgery, as they may contribute specifically to these patients’ weight regain and consequent failure to achieve excess weight loss.
Resumo:
The dissertation consists of four essays and a comprehensive introduction that discusses the topics, methods, and most prominent theories of philosophical moral psychology. I distinguish three main questions: What are the essential features of moral thinking? What are the psychological conditions of moral responsibility? And finally, what are the consequences of empirical facts about human nature to normative ethics? Each of the three last articles focuses on one of these issues. The first essay and part of the introduction are dedicated to methodological questions, in particular the relationship between empirical (social) psychology and philosophy. I reject recent attempts to understand the nature of morality on the basis of empirical research. One characteristic feature of moral thinking is its practical clout: if we regard an action as morally wrong, we either refrain from doing it even against our desires and interests, or else feel shame or guilt. Moral views seem to have a conceptual connection to motivation and emotions – roughly speaking, we can’t conceive of someone genuinely disapproving an action, but nonetheless doing it without any inner motivational conflict or regret. This conceptual thesis in moral psychology is called (judgment) internalism. It implies, among other things, that psychopaths cannot make moral judgments to the extent that they are incapable of corresponding motivation and emotion, even if they might say largely the words we would expect. Is internalism true? Recently, there has been an explosion of interest in so-called experimental philosophy, which is a methodological view according to which claims about conceptual truths that appeal to our intuitions should be tested by way of surveys presented to ordinary language users. One experimental result is that the majority of people are willing to grant that psychopaths make moral judgments, which challenges internalism. In the first article, ‘The Rise and Fall of Experimental Philosophy’, I argue that these results pose no real threat to internalism, since experimental philosophy is based on a too simple conception of the relationship between language use and concepts. Only the reactions of competent users in pragmatically neutral and otherwise conducive circumstances yield evidence about conceptual truths, and such robust intuitions remain inaccessible to surveys for reasons of principle. The epistemology of folk concepts must still be based on Socratic dialogue and critical reflection, whose character and authority I discuss at the end of the paper. The internal connection between moral judgment and motivation led many metaethicists in the past century to believe along Humean lines that judgment itself consists in a pro-attitude rather than a belief. This expressivist view, as it is called these days, has far-reaching consequences in metaethics. In the second essay I argue that perhaps the most sophisticated form of contemporary expressivism, Allan Gibbard’s norm-expressivism, according to which moral judgments are decisions or contingency plans, is implausible from the perspective of the theory of action. In certain circumstances it is possible to think that something is morally required of one without deciding to do so. Morality is not a matter of the will. Instead, I sketch on the basis of Robert Brandom’s inferentialist semantics a weak form of judgment internalism, according to which the content of moral judgment is determined by a commitment to a particular kind of practical reasoning. The last two essays in the dissertation emphasize the role of mutual recognition in the development and maintenance of responsible and autonomous moral agency. I defend a compatibilist view of autonomy, according to which agents who are unable to recognize right and wrong or act accordingly are not responsible for their actions – it is not fair to praise or blame them, since they lacked the relevant capacity to do otherwise. Conversely, autonomy demands an ability to recognize reasons and act on them. But as a long tradition in German moral philosophy whose best-known contemporary representative is Axel Honneth has it, both being aware of reasons and acting on them requires also the right sort of higher-order attitudes toward the self. Without self-respect and self-confidence we remain at the mercy of external pressures, even if we have the necessary normative competence. These attitudes toward the self, in turn, are formed through mutual recognition – we value ourselves when those who we value value us. Thus, standing in the right sort of relations of recognition is indirectly necessary for autonomy and moral responsibility. Recognition and valuing are concretely manifest in actions and institutions, whose practices make possible participation on an equal footing. Seeing this opens the way for a kind of normative social criticism that is grounded in the value of freedom and automomy, but is not limited to defending negative rights. It thus offers a new way to bridge the gap between liberalism and communitarianism.
Resumo:
Aerosol particles can cause detrimental environmental and health effects. The particles and their precursor gases are emitted from various anthropogenic and natural sources. It is important to know the origin and properties of aerosols to efficiently reduce their harmful effects. The diameter of aerosol particles (Dp) varies between ~0.001 and ~100 μm. Fine particles (PM2.5: Dp < 2.5 μm) are especially interesting because they are the most harmful and can be transported over long distances. The aim of this thesis is to study the impact on air quality by pollution episodes of long-range transported aerosols affecting the composition of the boundary-layer atmosphere in remote and relatively unpolluted regions of the world. The sources and physicochemical properties of aerosols were investigated in detail, based on various measurements (1) in southern Finland during selected long-range transport (LRT) pollution episodes and unpolluted periods and (2) over the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and Antarctica during a voyage. Furthermore, the frequency of LRT pollution episodes of fine particles in southern Finland was investigated over a period of 8 years, using long-term air quality monitoring data. In southern Finland, the annual mean PM2.5 mass concentrations were low but LRT caused high peaks of daily mean concentrations every year. At an urban background site in Helsinki, the updated WHO guideline value (24-h PM2.5 mean 25 μg/m3) was exceeded during 1-7 LRT episodes each year during 1999-2006. The daily mean concentrations varied between 25 and 49 μg/m3 during the episodes, which was 3-6 times higher than the mean concentration in the long term. The in-depth studies of selected LRT episodes in southern Finland revealed that biomass burning in agricultural fields and wildfires, occurring mainly in Eastern Europe, deteriorated air quality on a continental scale. The strongest LRT episodes of fine particles resulted from open biomass-burning fires but the emissions from other anthropogenic sources in Eastern Europe also caused significant LRT episodes. Particle mass and number concentrations increased strongly in the accumulation mode (Dp ~ 0.09-1 μm) during the LRT episodes. However, the concentrations of smaller particles (Dp < 0.09 μm) remained low or even decreased due to the uptake of vapours and molecular clusters by LRT particles. The chemical analysis of individual particles showed that the proportions of several anthropogenic particle types increased (e.g. tar balls, metal oxides/hydroxides, spherical silicate fly ash particles and various calcium-rich particles) in southern Finland during an LRT episode, when aerosols originated from the polluted regions of Eastern Europe and some open biomass-burning smoke was also brought in by LRT. During unpolluted periods when air masses arrived from the north, the proportions of marine aerosols increased. In unpolluted rural regions of southern Finland, both accumulation mode particles and small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles originated mostly from LRT. However, the composition of particles was totally different in these size fractions. In both size fractions, strong internal mixing of chemical components was typical for LRT particles. Thus, the aging of particles has significant impacts on their chemical, hygroscopic and optical properties, which can largely alter the environmental and health effects of LRT aerosols. Over the Atlantic Ocean, the individual particle composition of small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles was affected by continental aerosol plumes to distances of at least 100-1000 km from the coast (e.g. pollutants from industrialized Europe, desert dust from the Sahara and biomass-burning aerosols near the Gulf of Guinea). The rate of chloride depletion from sea-salt particles was high near the coasts of Europe and Africa when air masses arrived from polluted continental regions. Thus, the LRT of continental aerosols had significant impacts on the composition of the marine boundary-layer atmosphere and seawater. In conclusion, integration of the results obtained using different measurement techniques captured the large spatial and temporal variability of aerosols as observed at terrestrial and marine sites, and assisted in establishing the causal link between land-bound emissions, LRT and air quality.
Resumo:
- Purpose This paper aims to investigate how direct mail consumption contributes to brand relationship quality. Store flyers and other direct mailings continue to play a significant role in many companies’ communication strategies. Research on this topic predominantly investigates driving store traffic and sales. Less is known regarding the consumer side, such as the value that consumers may derive from the consumption of direct mailings and the effects of such a value on brand relationship quality. To address this limitation, this paper tests a causal model of the contribution of direct mail value to brand commitment, drawing on a value framework that integrates social theory of engagement regimes and literature on experiential customer value. - Design/methodology/approach The empirical work of this paper is based on a rigorous four-study mixed methods design, involving qualitative study, confirmatory factor analysis and partial least squares structural modeling. - Findings The authors develop two second-order formatively designed scales – familiar value and planned value scales – that illustrate the role of engagement regimes in consumer behavior. Although both types of value contribute equally to direct mail attachment, they exert contrasting effects on other mediational consumer responses, such as reading and gratitude. Finally, the proposed theoretical model appears to be robust in predicting customers’ brand commitment. - Research limitations/implications This study provides new insights into the research on consumer value and brand relational communication. - Originality/value This study is the first to consider consumer benefits from the social perspective of engagement regimes.
Resumo:
The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.
Resumo:
Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.
Resumo:
Background Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is an immune-mediated arthritis particularly targeting the spine and pelvis and is characterised by inflammation, osteoproliferation and frequently ankylosis. Current treatments that predominately target inflammatory pathways have disappointing efficacy in slowing disease progression. Thus, a better understanding of the causal association and pathological progression from inflammation to bone formation, particularly whether inflammation directly initiates osteoproliferation, is required. Methods The proteoglycan-induced spondylitis (PGISp) mouse model of AS was used to histopathologically map the progressive axial disease events, assess molecular changes during disease progression and define disease progression using unbiased clustering of semi-quantitative histology. PGISp mice were followed over a 24-week time course. Spinal disease was assessed using a novel semi-quantitative histological scoring system that independently evaluated the breadth of pathological features associated with PGISp axial disease, including inflammation, joint destruction and excessive tissue formation (osteoproliferation). Matrix components were identified using immunohistochemistry. Results Disease initiated with inflammation at the periphery of the intervertebral disc (IVD) adjacent to the longitudinal ligament, reminiscent of enthesitis, and was associated with upregulated tumor necrosis factor and metalloproteinases. After a lag phase, established inflammation was temporospatially associated with destruction of IVDs, cartilage and bone. At later time points, advanced disease was characterised by substantially reduced inflammation, excessive tissue formation and ectopic chondrocyte expansion. These distinct features differentiated affected mice into early, intermediate and advanced disease stages. Excessive tissue formation was observed in vertebral joints only if the IVD was destroyed as a consequence of the early inflammation. Ectopic excessive tissue was predominantly chondroidal with chondrocyte-like cells embedded within collagen type II- and X-rich matrix. This corresponded with upregulation of mRNA for cartilage markers Col2a1, sox9 and Comp. Osteophytes, though infrequent, were more prevalent in later disease. Conclusions The inflammation-driven IVD destruction was shown to be a prerequisite for axial disease progression to osteoproliferation in the PGISp mouse. Osteoproliferation led to vertebral body deformity and fusion but was never seen concurrent with persistent inflammation, suggesting a sequential process. The findings support that early intervention with anti-inflammatory therapies will be needed to limit destructive processes and consequently prevent progression of AS.
Resumo:
Habitat fragmentation is currently affecting many species throughout the world. As a consequence, an increasing number of species are structured as metapopulations, i.e. as local populations connected by dispersal. While excellent studies of metapopulations have accumulated over the past 20 years, the focus has recently shifted from single species to studies of multiple species. This has created the concept of metacommunities, where local communities are connected by the dispersal of one or several of their member species. To understand this higher level of organisation, we need to address not only the properties of single species, but also establish the importance of interspecific interactions. However, studies of metacommunities are so far heavily biased towards laboratory-based systems, and empirical data from natural systems are urgently needed. My thesis focuses on a metacommunity of insect herbivores on the pedunculate oak Quercus robur a tree species known for its high diversity of host-specific insects. Taking advantage of the amenability of this system to both observational and experimental studies, I quantify and compare the importance of local and regional factors in structuring herbivore communities. Most importantly, I contrast the impact of direct and indirect competition, host plant genotype and local adaptation (i.e. local factors) to that of regional processes (as reflected by the spatial context of the local community). As a key approach, I use general theory to generate testable hypotheses, controlled experiments to establish causal relations, and observational data to validate the role played by the pinpointed processes in nature. As the central outcome of my thesis, I am able to relegate local forces to a secondary role in structuring oak-based insect communities. While controlled experiments show that direct competition does occur among both conspecifics and heterospecifics, that indirect interactions can be mediated by both the host plant and the parasitoids, and that host plant genotype may affect local adaptation, the size of these effects is much smaller than that of spatial context. Hence, I conclude that dispersal between habitat patches plays a prime role in structuring the insect community, and that the distribution and abundance of the target species can only be understood in a spatial framework. By extension, I suggest that the majority of herbivore communities are dependent on the spatial structure of their landscape and urge fellow ecologists working on other herbivore systems to either support or refute my generalization.
Resumo:
The DNA polymorphism among 22 isolates of Sclerospora graminicola, the causal agent of downy mildew disease of pearl millet was assessed using 20 inter simple sequence repeats (ISSR) primers. The objective of the study was to examine the effectiveness of using ISSR markers for unravelling the extent and pattern of genetic diversity in 22 S. graminicola isolates collected from different host cultivars in different states of India. The 19 functional ISSR primers generated 410 polymorphic bands and revealed 89% polymorphism and were able to distinguish all the 22 isolates. Polymorphic bands used to construct an unweighted pair group method of averages (UPGMA) dendrogram based on Jaccard's co-efficient of similarity and principal coordinate analysis resulted in the formation of four major clusters of 22 isolates. The standardized Nei genetic distance among the 22 isolates ranged from 0.0050 to 0.0206. The UPGMA clustering using the standardized genetic distance matrix resulted in the identification of four clusters of the 22 isolates with bootstrap values ranging from 15 to 100. The 3D-scale data supported the UPGMA results, which resulted into four clusters amounting to 70% variation among each other. However, comparing the two methods show that sub clustering by dendrogram and multi dimensional scaling plot is slightly different. All the S. graminicola isolates had distinct ISSR genotypes and cluster analysis origin. The results of ISSR fingerprints revealed significant level of genetic diversity among the isolates and that ISSR markers could be a powerful tool for fingerprinting and diversity analysis in fungal pathogens.
Resumo:
There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.
Resumo:
Background Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality. Methods We conducted a case–control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man’s number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies. Results The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46 % of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03). Conclusions We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.